August 7, 2013 - Booker On Top In NJ Senate Primary, General Election, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Lonegan Tops GOP Primary Opponent 7-1 PDF format Newark Mayor Cory Booker has a seemingly unbeatable lead in next week's Democratic Senate primary in New Jersey, with 54 percent of likely Democratic primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. U.S. Rep. Frank Pallone has 17 percent of likely voters, with 15 percent for U.S. Rep. Rush Holt and 5 percent for State Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver. Only 8 percent of voters remain undecided. This is the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University's first measure of likely primary voters in this cycle and can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters. A total of 65 percent of likely Democratic primary voters, including 66 percent of Booker backers, say they definitely will vote for the candidate they have named. Among likely Republican primary voters, Steve Lonegan beats Alieta Eck 74 - 10 percent, with 13 percent undecided. In a general election matchup, Booker tops Lonegan 54 - 29 percent among registered voters. There is little or no gender gap in any of the election matchups in New Jersey. "The first question is if voters will abandon the Shore for the day for this oddly-timed August primary," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The second question is if they'll take their eyes off the Governor and legislative races for the oddly-timed October vote for U.S. Senate. "Unless the sky falls, Newark Mayor Cory Booker can start looking for a Washington apartment. He dominates both the Democratic primary and a general election against Steve Lonegan," Carroll said. "No one knows Alieta Eck. August 13 looks like an easy day for Lonegan." In the general election matchup, Republicans back Lonegan 68 - 18 percent, while Booker leads among every other group and in every region of the state, ranging from a 46 - 38 percent lead among voters at the Shore to 72 - 14 percent among voters in urban areas. Booker tops Lonegan 81 - 5 percent among black voters, 61 - 12 percent among Hispanic voters and 48 - 35 percent among white voters. The Democrat leads among all age groups, ranging from 47 - 35 percent among voters over 65 years old to 60 - 24 percent among voters 30 to 44 years old. From August 1 - 5, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,042 New Jersey voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 388 likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points and 257 likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 6.1 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research. For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. (If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Cory Booker, Rush Holt, Frank Pallone, and Sheila Oliver, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more towardBooker, Holt, Pallone, or Oliver? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Booker 54% 55% 54% Holt 15 15 16 Pallone 17 17 17 Oliver 5 5 6 SOMEONE ELSE (VOL) 1 1 - DK/NA 8 8 8 1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Will you definitely vote for (Candidate of choice q1), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for another of the candidates? IF CHANGE MIND: Would you say there's a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely? (* Subgroup size less than 75, additional caution should be taken when interpreting findings of this group because of the large margin of error) LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Booker Holt* Pallone* Def vote for cand 65% 66% 66% 63% Change likely 16 15 16 16 Change unlikely 15 14 14 18 DK/NA 5 5 4 2 1b. (If candidate chosen q1) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Candidate of choice q1), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all? (* Subgroup size less than 75, additional caution should be taken when interpreting findings of this group because of the large margin of error) LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Booker Holt* Pallone* Very enthusiastic 46% 51% 54% 34% Somewht enthusiastic 49 46 39 56 Not so enthusiastic 2 2 2 6 Not enthus at all 2 1 1 3 DK/NA 1 - 4 1 2. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Alieta Eck and Steve Lonegan, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Eck or Lonegan? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Eck 10% 13% 8% Lonegan 74 76 72 SOMEONE ELSE (VOL) 3 5 1 DK/NA 13 6 19 2a. (If candidate chosen q2) Will you definitely vote for (Candidate of choice q2), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for (Candidate not chosen q2)? IF CHANGE MIND: Would you say there's a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q2 Tot Men Wom Def vote for cand 69% 74% 63% Change likely 15 16 13 Change unlikely 11 8 14 DK/NA 6 2 10 2b. (If candidate chosen q2) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Candidate of choice q2), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q2 Tot Men Wom Very enthusiastic 38% 40% 35% Somewht enthusiastic 46 46 46 Not so enthusiastic 11 9 12 Not enthus at all 4 3 5 DK/NA 1 1 1 3. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Cory Booker the Democrat and Steve Lonegan the Republican, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Booker 54% 18% 89% 49% 52% 56% 48% 81% 61% Lonegan 29 68 2 28 32 26 35 5 12 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 5 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 4 4 2 2 3 7 DK/NA 13 11 8 17 11 15 13 11 15 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Booker 61% 49% 55% 56% 58% 52% 60% 56% 47% Lonegan 28 29 26 28 32 22 24 30 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 1 1 4 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 4 4 3 2 4 3 3 2 DK/NA 9 16 14 12 8 19 12 11 14 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Booker 72% 59% 47% 44% 46% Lonegan 14 24 36 34 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 3 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 2 5 3 DK/NA 12 13 13 17 12 TREND: If the election for United State Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Cory Booker the Democrat and Steve Lonegan the Republican, for whom would you vote? Aug 07 Jul 09 Jun 10 2013 2013 2013 Booker 54 53 54 Lonegan 29 30 27 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 DK/NA 13 13 16 Demographic Summary
