August 8, 2013 - Christie Crushes Dem In New Jersey Governor's Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Don't Know If Running Mates Can Run State PDF format New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie leads among women, and even more among men, as he rolls over State Sen. Barbara Buono, his Democratic challenger for reelection, 58 - 30 percent according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Voters in strongly Democratic urban areas are divided, with 43 percent for Sen. Buono and 42 percent for Gov. Christie, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. The incumbent has commanding leads in every other area of the state, from 56 - 33 percent in suburban areas to 67 - 21 percent at the Shore. Buono leads 57 - 30 percent among Democrats, while Christie leads 91 - 4 percent among Republicans and 66 - 22 percent among independent voters. He leads 62 - 27 percent among men and 56 - 34 percent among women. White voters back Christie 66 - 25 percent while black voters go to Buono 54 - 30 percent. Hispanic voters are divided with 43 percent for Buono and 41 percent for Christie. "The big election is still the race between Gov. Christopher Christie and State Sen. Barbara Buono and the governor's 2-1 lead remains undented after months of polling," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Sen. Buono is down 3-1 among independent voters and even loses 30 percent of Democratic voters to Christie. There's no point even counting Republicans." Christie's support for a legislative candidate carries little weight as only 20 percent of voters say Christie's backing would make them more likely to vote for that candidate, with 17 percent saying less likely and 60 percent saying it wouldn't make a difference. Buono does even worse as 15 percent of voters are less likely to support a Buono-backed candidate, with 11 percent more likely and 70 percent who say it wouldn't make a difference. "The question is if Gov. Christie has coat-tails and, unless he goes all-out for legislative Republicans, the answer now is no," Carroll said. "Buono looks like she's no help to Democrats." Only 15 percent of New Jersey voters say Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno would make a good governor, if necessary, while 7 percent say she couldn't fill Christie's shoes and 77 percent say they don't know enough about her to decide. For Milly Silva, the Democratic candidate for lieutenant governor, 90 percent don't know enough to decide if she could step into the top job. "Electing a lieutenant governor was New Jersey's answer to the succession problem. But it hasn't meant much in terms of recognition," Carroll said. "No one knows Milly Silva, and most people don't even know the incumbent, Kim Guadagno, and she's had the job for four years." From August 1 - 5, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,042 New Jersey voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research. For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 4. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Barbara Buono the Democrat and Christopher Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Buono 30% 4% 57% 22% 27% 34% 25% 54% 43% Christie 58 91 30 66 62 56 66 30 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 5 DK/NA 8 3 10 8 8 7 6 13 11 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Buono 32% 29% 36% 28% 30% 35% 27% 33% 27% Christie 58 59 52 61 64 51 61 57 61 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 - - 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 3 3 1 5 3 2 1 DK/NA 6 9 8 7 5 9 8 6 10 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Buono 43% 33% 26% 29% 21% Christie 42 56 67 60 67 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 2 3 2 DK/NA 9 9 6 7 8 TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Barbara Buono the Democrat and Christopher Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote? CHRISTIE...... High Low Aug 08 Jul 10 Jun 10 Apr 24 Mar 26 Jan 23 Oct 17 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2012 Buono 30 29 29 26 25 22 33 Christie 58 61 59 58 60 63 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 8 7 9 13 13 13 17 5. If Christopher Christie supports a state legislative candidate, would that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or wouldn't it make a difference? REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp More likely 20% 44% 6% 19% 20% 21% 24% 5% 18% Less likely 17 5 32 12 17 17 15 27 21 No difference 60 49 59 68 62 58 59 63 57 DK/NA 2 2 3 2 1 3 2 5 4 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ More likely 20% 21% 19% 21% 22% 19% 19% 17% 28% Less likely 21 15 19 18 15 20 17 18 14 No difference 58 61 58 60 63 58 63 63 53 DK/NA 1 3 4 1 - 3 1 1 5 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore More likely 11% 19% 22% 22% 26% Less likely 22 18 16 18 12 No difference 64 60 61 57 59 DK/NA 2 2 1 3 3 TREND: If Christopher Christie supports a state legislative candidate, would that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or wouldn't it make a difference? Aug 08 Jul 10 2013 2013 More likely 20 20 Less likely 17 15 No difference 60 63 DK/NA 2 3 6. If Barbara Buono supports a state legislative candidate, would that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or wouldn't it make a difference? REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp More likely 11% 2% 22% 6% 10% 11% 8% 20% 12% Less likely 15 33 2 15 17 13 17 5 13 No difference 70 61 71 75 69 71 71 70 67 DK/NA 4 4 4 5 3 5 3 5 8 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ More likely 11% 10% 14% 8% 10% 6% 9% 13% 11% Less likely 15 15 15 15 16 15 12 14 21 No difference 71 69 65 76 72 76 76 70 62 DK/NA 3 5 6 1 2 3 3 3 7 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore More likely 11% 11% 9% 13% 8% Less likely 9 14 17 15 19 No difference 78 69 72 68 68 DK/NA 2 6 3 4 5 TREND: If Barbara Buono supports a state legislative candidate, would that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or wouldn't it make a difference? Aug 08 Jul 10 2013 2013 More likely 11 8 Less likely 15 18 No difference 70 70 DK/NA 4 3 7. (INTRO Q7-8: As you may know, the Lieutenant Governor becomes Governor if the Governor does not complete his or her term.) Do you think Kim Guadagno would make a good governor if it becomes necessary, or not, or haven't you heard enough about her? REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Yes/Good governor 15% 25% 10% 14% 18% 12% 17% 8% 17% No 7 2 11 6 9 5 7 6 4 Hvn't hrd enough 77 72 78 78 71 82 75 85 77 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Yes/Good governor 16% 14% 11% 19% 17% 17% 11% 16% 15% No 10 4 4 7 9 4 7 7 7 Hvn't hrd enough 72 80 83 73 73 79 80 75 77 REFUSED 2 1 1 1 1 - 2 1 1 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes/Good governor 11% 13% 16% 14% 21% No 7 8 8 4 6 Hvn't hrd enough 81 77 76 82 71 REFUSED 1 2 1 1 2 8. Do you think Milly Silva would make a good governor if it becomes necessary, or not, or haven't you heard enough about her? REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Yes/Good governor 4% 2% 6% 4% 6% 3% 4% 4% 7% No 5 8 2 8 7 4 6 4 4 Hvn't hrd enough 90 90 92 88 87 92 90 91 87 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 - - 1 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Yes/Good governor 3% 5% 6% 5% 3% 6% 3% 4% 5% No 7 4 3 5 8 3 5 5 8 Hvn't hrd enough 89 90 91 90 89 91 92 90 86 REFUSED 1 1 - - 1 - - 1 2 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes/Good governor 8% 5% 2% 4% 2% No 6 5 7 3 7 Hvn't hrd enough 86 89 90 92 91 REFUSED - 1 - 1 - Demographic Summary
