July 26, 1999 - Favorite Son Bill Bradley Tops Bush, Gore In New Jersey, Quinnipiac College Poll Finds; Bush Beats Gore 51 - 40 In Presidential Race Former Sen. Bill Bradley beats Vice President Al Gore 54 - 35 percent in a New Jersey Democratic Primary, according to a Quinnipiac College Poll released today. If Bradley faced Texas Gov. George W. Bush, the Republican, in a presidential election in New Jersey, the native son would win 53 - 38 percent, the independent Quinnipiac College Poll finds. In a Gore-Bush presidential matchup, the Republican wins 51 - 40 percent. Bush wins a GOP primary in New Jersey hands down, with 57 percent of the vote. Former Red Cross Director Elizabeth Dole gets 10 percent and no other Republican contender tops 7 percent. "New Jersey has been a swing state in presidential politics, but only Bill Bradley seems to swing it Democratic in 2000," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac College Polling Institute. "Bradley exemplifies Tip O'Neill's dictum that all politics is local. His New Jersey neighbors tell the Quinnipiac College Poll that they like him a lot more than any other possible presidential candidate, Democrat or Republican. "And it's a slam-dunk for the ex-Knick in a Democratic primary against Gore." By a 61 - 11 percent margin, New Jersey voters have a favorable opinion of Bradley, while 18 percent have a mixed opinion and 10 percent haven't heard enough to form an opinion. Among the other possible candidates: Favorable Unfavorable Mixed No Opinion Gore 29% 29% 34% 7% Bush 45 22 19 13 Dole 37 24 23 15 Lamar Alexander 6 23 12 57 Gary Bauer 5 13 5 76 Patrick Buchanan 15 49 18 18 Steve Forbes 23 27 25 24 Orin Hatch 12 27 17 43 John McCain 22 10 13 53 Dan Quayle 14 57 22 7 Bob Smith 6 15 7 71 "Despite his claim to native son status, Steve Forbes doesn't score in New Jersey," Carroll said. "Voters like Bush and Dole. In fact, Bush went from a hardly well-known candidate in an April 1 Quinnipiac College Poll, when 36 percent of voters didn't know enough to form an opinion, to a healthy 45 - 22 percent favorability rating today, with only 13 percent saying they don't know enough about him. "The other Republican contenders are no-names. The exceptions are Buchanan and Quayle, and the bad news is the voters know them, but don't like them." From July 13 - 20, Quinnipiac College surveyed 1,082 New Jersey residents who say they are registered voters. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3 percent. The Quinnipiac College Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research. For additional data: www.quinnipiac.edu 4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as President? Apr 1 Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1999 Approve 59% 31% 87% 57% 57% 61% 59% Disapprove 38 66 13 41 40 37 39 DK/NA 2 3 1 2 3 2 3 14. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for President in the year 2000 -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A lot 27% 33% 28% 25% 31% 24% Some 41 38 43 44 37 45 Only a little 25 24 23 26 24 26 None at all 6 6 6 6 7 6 DK/NA - - - - - - 15. Is your opinion of Vice President Al Gore favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Apr 1 Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1999 Favorable 29% 13% 51% 24% 31% 28% 34% Unfavorable 29 55 8 29 33 26 36 Mixed 34 27 33 40 30 37 18 Hvn't hrd enough 7 5 7 5 6 7 11 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 16. Is your opinion of former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Apr 1 Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1999 Favorable 61% 48% 68% 65% 63% 59% 63% Unfavorable 11 19 5 10 12 9 9 Mixed 18 24 15 15 16 19 15 Hvn't hrd enough 10 8 11 10 8 12 12 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 17. Is your opinion of former Tennessee Governor Lamar Alexander favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 6% 7% 5% 7% 8% 5% Unfavorable 23 26 25 21 27 20 Mixed 12 11 11 14 13 11 Hvn't hrd enough 57 54 58 57 50 64 DK/NA 1 2 1 1 2 1 18. Is your opinion of Family Research Council Chairman Gary Bauer favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 5% 8% 3% 4% 6% 3% Unfavorable 13 12 16 11 18 9 Mixed 5 6 4 5 6 4 Hvn't hrd enough 76 72 75 79 68 83 DK/NA 1 2 2 1 2 1 19. Is your opinion of Political Commentator Patrick Buchanan favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 15% 21% 11% 14% 17% 13% Unfavorable 49 43 57 47 56 43 Mixed 18 21 14 19 15 20 Hvn't hrd enough 18 15 17 19 11 24 DK/NA 1 - - 1 1 1 20. Is your opinion of Texas Governor George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Apr 1 Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1999 Favorable 45% 74% 24% 43% 46% 44% 38% Unfavorable 22 5 43 18 24 19 15 Mixed 19 12 20 25 17 21 11 Hvn't hrd enough 13 9 12 15 11 14 36 DK/NA 1 - 2 1 1 1 1 21. Is your opinion of former Red Cross Director Elizabeth Dole favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her? Apr 1 Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1999 Favorable 37% 46% 27% 42% 33% 42% 42% Unfavorable 24 21 29 22 27 22 15 Mixed 23 18 26 24 23 22 15 Hvn't hrd enough 15 12 17 12 17 13 27 DK/NA 1 2 1 - 1 1 1 22. Is your opinion of Businessman Steve Forbes favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 23% 32% 12% 27% 26% 20% Unfavorable 27 20 39 23 31 24 Mixed 25 26 21 29 24 25 Hvn't hrd enough 24 21 27 21 18 29 DK/NA 1 - 2 1 1 2 23. Is your opinion of Utah Senator Orrin Hatch favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 12% 22% 6% 12% 15% 10% Unfavorable 27 20 38 25 30 24 Mixed 17 16 15 20 18 16 Hvn't hrd enough 43 42 41 43 37 48 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 1 25. Is your opinion of Arizona Senator John McCain favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 22% 29% 18% 23% 29% 16% Unfavorable 10 10 13 8 13 8 Mixed 13 15 13 14 15 11 Hvn't hrd enough 53 44 56 55 42 63 DK/NA 1 2 1 1 1 1 26. Is your opinion of former Vice President Dan Quayle favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 14% 26% 6% 12% 14% 14% Unfavorable 57 41 69 62 61 54 Mixed 22 28 16 21 19 23 Hvn't hrd enough 7 5 9 5 5 8 DK/NA 1 - 1 - 1 1 27. Is your opinion of New Hampshire Senator Bob Smith favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 6% 9% 5% 5% 7% 5% Unfavorable 15 17 18 13 20 10 Mixed 7 6 6 8 6 7 Hvn't hrd enough 71 66 70 74 64 76 DK/NA 1 2 1 1 2 1 28. If the election for President in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were Vice President Al Gore the Democrat and Texas Governor George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote? Apr 1 Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1999 Gore 40% 10% 79% 33% 38% 41% 40% Bush 51 87 14 56 54 49 47 SOMEONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 1 2 WOULDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 6 2 5 7 5 7 10 29. If the election for President in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley the Democrat and Texas Governor George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote? Apr 1 Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1999 Bradley 53% 22% 85% 51% 52% 54% 53% Bush 38 73 10 36 42 36 35 SOMEONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 1 1 WOULDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 7 5 4 10 5 8 11 30. If the election for President in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were Vice President Al Gore the Democrat and former Red Cross Director Elizabeth Dole the Republican, for whom would you vote? Apr 1 Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1999 Gore 46% 17% 80% 40% 47% 45% 41% Dole 41 72 12 46 39 43 42 SOMEONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 3 1 2 WOULDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 7 2 3 5 3 3 DK/NA 7 4 5 10 6 7 12 31. If the election for President in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley the Democrat and former Red Cross Director Elizabeth Dole the Republican, for whom would you vote? Apr 1 Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1999 Bradley 62% 40% 85% 60% 67% 58% 59% Dole 28 50 9 30 24 32 28 SOMEONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 WOULDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 1 1 1 2 2 DK/NA 6 5 3 7 5 7 10 32. (If registered Democrat) If the Democratic Primary for President in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were Vice President Al Gore and former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley, for whom would you vote? Registered Democrats Gore 35% Bradley 54 SOMEONE ELSE(VOL) 1 WON'T VOTE(VOL) 1 DK/NA 9 34. (If registered Republican) If the Republican Primary for President in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were former Tennessee Governor Lamar Alexander, Family Research Council Chairman Gary Bauer, Political Commentator Patrick Buchanan, Texas Governor George W. Bush, former Red Cross Director Elizabeth Dole, Businessman Steve Forbes, Utah Senator Orrin Hatch, Arizona Senator John McCain, and former Vice President Dan Quayle, for whom would you vote? Registered Republicans Alexander 7% Bauer - Buchanan 3 Bush 57 Dole 10 Forbes 5 Hatch 2 McCain 4 Quayle 4 SOMEONE ELSE(VOL) - WON'T VOTE(VOL) - DK/NA 7
