October 22, 1997 - McGreevey Trails Whitman By 8 Points, Quinnipiac College Poll Finds; Challenger Widens Lead On Auto Insurance New Jersey registered voters give Gov. Christine Todd Whitman a 45 - 37 percent lead over Democratic challenger James McGreevey, with 8 percent supporting Libertarian party candidate Murray Sabrin, according to a Quinnipiac College Poll released today. Among likely voters, Whitman leads 47 - 39 percent, with 7 percent for Sabrin. In a September 16 poll by the independent Quinnipiac College, Whitman led 49 - 37 percent, with Sabrin not included. In today's poll, without Sabrin, she leads 47 - 38 percent. Gov. Whitman's approval stands at 53 - 43 percent, similar to results in September 16, July 29, June 24 and April 10 polls, but down from 62 - 32 percent in a February poll. By a 50 - 27 percent margin, New Jersey voters say McGreevey would do a better job than Whitman on the issue of auto insurance, up from 42 - 33 percent in the September poll. "There's no question the race has tightened since Quinnipiac College last looked. There's a trend toward McGreevey. But so far, our numbers measure a narrow lead for Gov. Whitman, not a too-close-to-call standoff," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac College Polling Institute. "No doubt Sabrin is going to attract some votes, even though hardly anyone knows about him. But his political impact looks like a wash: He draws votes from both major party candidates." Whitman's favorability is 40 - 29 percent, with 28 percent mixed and 2 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion. In September, her favorability was 44 - 28 percent. McGreevey's favorability is 21 - 18 percent, with 24 percent mixed and 37 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion, an improvement from September when 56 percent did not know enough to form an opinion. Sabrin gets at 6 - 4 percent favorability, with 4 percent mixed and 85 percent with no opinion. "The increased attention in the news, and the proliferation of TV ads have erased some of the anonymity that plagued McGreevey at the start. But he's still an unknown quantity to a sizable segment of New Jersey voters," Carroll said. Twenty-four percent of New Jersey voters say auto insurance is the single most important issue in deciding how they will vote, while 13 percent list local property taxes, followed by 10 percent listing education. Another nine percent list "taxes" while 3 percent list the state income tax. A total of 61 percent of New Jersey voters are "very satisfied" or "somewhat satisfied" with life in New Jersey, while 38 percent are "somewhat dissatisfied" or "very dissatisfied." Forty-one percent say life has gotten better in New Jersey since Whitman became governor, while 20 percent say it got worse and 37 percent say it has stayed the same. Looking at the Governor's character: by 75 - 22 percent voters say she gets things done; by 71 - 23 percent they say she has a likable personality; by 79 - 18 percent they say she has strong leadership qualities, by 61 - 29 percent, they say she's honest and trustworthy. McGreevey's character ratings are positive, but plagued by "undecided." "Beyond the matchups, the Quinnipiac College numbers look good for Whitman: New Jerseyans are satisfied with the state of the Garden State, and they think it's gotten better since Whitman moved into the Statehouse," Carroll said. From October 14 - 20 Quinnipiac College surveyed 1,120 New Jersey residents who say they are registered voters. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent. The Quinnipiac College Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research. Additional data available. 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christine Whitman is handling her job as Governor of New Jersey? Sep 16 Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1997 Approve 53% 80% 27% 49% 61% 46% 55% Disapprove 43 17 69 47 36 50 41 DK/NA 4 3 4 4 3 4 3 1A. Is that strongly or somewhat? Sep 16 Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1997 Approve strongly 21% 44% 4% 16% 27% 16% 22% Approve smwht 32 36 23 33 34 30 34 Disapprove smwht 18 8 26 21 14 22 17 Disapprove strongly 25 9 43 26 22 28 24 DK/NA 4 3 4 4 3 4 3 2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator? Sep 16 Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1997 Approve 51% 40% 61% 55% 49% 53% 53% Disapprove 26 36 16 25 33 20 26 DK/NA 23 23 23 20 19 27 22 2a. Is that strongly or somewhat? Sep 16 Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1997 Approve strongly 15% 9% 27% 13% 13% 17% 16% Approve smwht 36 31 35 42 36 36 36 Disapprove smwht 14 17 12 13 15 12 13 Disapprove strongly 13 19 5 12 18 8 12 DK/NA 23 23 23 20 19 27 22 3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Torricelli is handling his job as United States Senator? Sep 16 Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1997 Approve 44% 34% 57% 44% 41% 47% 43% Disapprove 28 41 14 27 34 22 25 DK/NA 28 25 29 29 26 31 32 3a. Is that strongly or somewhat? Sep 16 Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1997 Approve strongly 12% 6% 19% 12% 11% 12% 11% Approve smwht 32 28 37 32 30 35 31 Disapprove smwht 13 16 8 13 14 12 10 Disapprove strongly 14 25 6 14 20 9 15 DK/NA 28 25 29 29 26 31 32 4. How much attention have you been paying to the campaign for Governor? A lot, some, only a little, or none at all? Sep 16 Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1997 A lot 24% 24% 27% 24% 25% 23% 17% Some 45 48 40 47 47 43 45 Only a little 24 22 26 23 21 27 27 None at all 6 7 7 6 6 7 10 DK/NA - - - - - - - 5. Is your opinion of State Senator James McGreevey favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Sep 16 Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1997 Favorable 21% 9% 41% 17% 19% 23% 17% Unfavorable 18 32 4 15 23 13 10 Mixed 24 20 22 29 21 26 16 Haven't heard enough 37 39 33 38 36 38 56 REFUSED 1 1 - - 1 - - 6. Is your opinion of Governor Christine Whitman favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her? Sep 16 Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1997 Favorable 40% 69% 14% 36% 48% 32% 44% Unfavorable 29 10 50 29 25 33 28 Mixed 28 19 34 32 25 32 25 Haven't heard enough 2 2 2 2 1 3 3 REFUSED - - - - - 1 - 7. If the 1997 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Christine Whitman the Republican, and James McGreevey the Democrat, for whom would you vote? Sep 16 Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1997 Whitman/Republican 47% 81% 15% 44% 56% 39% 49% McGreevey/Democrat 38 11 71 39 31 45 37 SOMEONE ELSE 3 3 2 4 3 3 4 WOULDN'T VOTE 3 1 2 3 2 3 3 DK/NA 8 4 10 9 6 10 7 9. If the 1997 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Christine Whitman the Republican, James McGreevey the Democrat, and Murray Sabrin the Libertarian Party candidate, for whom would you vote? Likely Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Voters Whitman/Republican 45% 78% 15% 41% 53% 38% 47% McGreevey/Democrat 37 10 70 36 31 42 39 Sabrin/Libertarian 8 7 4 11 8 8 7 SOMEONE ELSE 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 WOULDN'T VOTE 2 * 2 2 1 2 - DK/NA 7 4 9 8 6 8 6 10. There are seven other people on the ballot in New Jersey this year. Madelyn Hoffman for the Green Party, Robert Miller for the Socialist Workers Party, Lincoln Norton for the Natural Law Party, Gregory Pason for the Socialist Party USA, Michael Perrone an Independent-Progressive, Richard Pezzullo for the NJ Conservative Party, and Nuncie Ripa an Independent. If the election were being held today, would you vote for Christine Whitman the Republican, James McGreevey the Democrat, Murray Sabrin the Libertarian Party candidate, or one of the other people on the ballot this year? IF "OTHER" ASK: Which one? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Whitman/Rep. 46% 79% 14% 41% 53% 38% McGreevey/Dem. 36 10 69 36 29 42 Sabrin/Lib. 5 5 2 7 5 5 Madelyn Hoffman/ Green 1 - - 2 1 1 Robert Miller/ Socialist Workers - - - - - - Lincoln Norton/ Natural Law - - - - - - Gregory Pason/ Socialist - - - - 1 - Michael Perrone/Ind. -Progressive 1 1 1 - - 1 Richard Pezzullo/NJ Conservative 1 2 1 1 1 1 Nuncie Ripa/ Independent 1 - - 1 1 1 SOMEONE ELSE 2 - 2 2 1 2 WOULDN'T VOTE 1 - 1 2 1 1 DK/NA 7 3 9 7 7 7 10A. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? Whitman McGreevey Voter Voter Yes made up 71% 64% No might change 29 35 DK/NA - 1 11. Would you describe your support for Christine Whitman/James McGreevey as strongly favoring her/him, or do you like her/him but with reservations, or do you support her/him because you dislike James McGreevey/Christine Whitman? Whitman McGreevey Voter Voter Strongly favor 46% 18% Like with reservations 48 38 Dislike McGreevey/ 4 41 Whitman DK/NA 2 3 13. What issues matter most in deciding how you will vote for Governor? (Column percentages add up to more than 100% since up to 3 responses were accepted) Tot Rep Dem Ind Male Female Abortion 3% 4% 2% 2% 1% 5% Auto Insurance 55 48 59 56 52 57 Budget/Pension Fund Bond 6 5 5 8 7 5 Crime/Drugs 6 7 6 5 7 4 Economy/Jobs 8 10 9 8 12 5 Education 20 18 25 19 11 29 Elderly/Senior Citizens 1 - 1 1 1 1 Environment 7 6 5 8 6 7 Health/Medical Insurance 2 2 3 2 1 3 Welfare 3 2 3 2 2 3 Taxes - general 17 21 15 15 18 16 State income tax 9 14 6 9 12 6 Local property tax 32 30 33 35 31 33 Party preference 2 3 3 - 2 2 Record in office/ Achievements/ Policies 8 8 5 8 8 7 Like/Dislike candidate 3 5 2 2 3 3 Honesty/Integrity/ Ethics 3 3 2 4 3 3 Other 10 9 9 11 12 9 DK/NA 8 7 9 8 8 8 14. Among those that you've mentioned, what single issue matters most in deciding how you will vote for Governor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Male Female Abortion 1% 2% 1% 1% - 2% Auto Insurance 24 20 27 25 24 24 Budget/Pension Fund Bond 3 2 3 3 3 2 Crime/Drugs 2 3 2 2 3 1 Economy/Jobs 4 5 5 4 6 3 Education 10 9 14 9 5 15 Elderly/Senior Citizens - 1 - - - 1 Environment 2 1 2 2 2 2 Health/Medical Insurance - 1 - - - - Welfare 1 1 1 1 - 1 Taxes - general 9 10 5 10 10 8 State income tax 3 5 2 3 5 2 Local property tax 13 12 14 14 13 13 Party preference 1 3 1 - 1 2 Record in office/ Achievements/ Policies 3 4 2 4 3 4 Like/Dislike candidate 1 3 1 1 2 1 Honesty/Integrity/ Ethics 2 4 1 3 4 1 Other 5 3 6 6 5 5 DK/NA 13 13 12 11 12 13 15. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? Sep 16 Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1997 Very satisfied 8 14 4 5 11 5 9% Smwht satisfied 53 62 41 54 55 51 48 Smwht dissatisfied 26 18 34 29 24 29 27 Very dissatisfied 12 5 21 12 10 14 15 DK/NA 1 - 1 - - 1 - 16. Since Christine Whitman became Governor in January 1994, do you feel that things in New Jersey have gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same? Sep 16 Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1997 Better 41% 66% 19% 37% 50% 32% 42% Worse 20 6 40 20 16 24 19 About the same 37 27 39 42 32 41 37 DK/NA 2 1 3 2 1 3 2 17. Is your opinion of college professor Murray Sabrin favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 6% 7% 5% 7% 8% 4% Unfavorable 4 3 5 3 4 3 Mixed 4 3 5 5 4 5 Haven't heard enough 85 87 85 85 83 88 REFUSED - - - - - - 18. I'm going to read off some personal characteristics and qualities. As I read each one, tell me if you think it applies to Christine Whitman or not? Would you say that Christine Whitman can get things done or not? Apr 10 Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1997 Yes 75% 91% 57% 74% 79% 71% 82% No 22 7 39 22 18 25 15 DK/NA 4 2 4 4 3 4 3 19. Would you say that Christine Whitman has a likable personality or not? Apr 10 Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1997 Yes 71% 87% 55% 71% 75% 68% 74% No 23 9 36 22 20 25 21 DK/NA 6 4 8 7 5 7 5 20. Would you say that Christine Whitman has strong leadership qualities or not? Apr 10 Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1997 Yes 79% 92% 66% 78% 80% 78% 82% No 18 6 31 18 17 18 15 DK/NA 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 21. Would you say that Christine Whitman is honest and trustworthy or not? Apr 10 Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1997 Yes 61% 81% 47% 56% 64% 58% 66% No 29 14 41 33 28 31 25 DK/NA 10 5 12 12 8 12 9 22. Would you say that Christine Whitman is sympathetic to the problems of the poor or not? Apr 10 Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1997 Yes 35% 52% 19% 33% 40% 30% 42% No 51 31 70 55 46 56 50 DK/NA 14 17 12 13 14 14 9 23. Would you say that Christine Whitman works well with other political leaders or not? Apr 10 Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1997 Yes 74% 86% 63% 73% 75% 72% 75% No 15 7 24 15 14 15 13 DK/NA 12 7 13 12 10 13 12 24. I'm going to read off some personal characteristics and qualities. As I read each one, tell me if you think it applies to James McGreevey or not? Would you say that James McGreevey can get things done or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 40% 25% 59% 41% 38% 42% No 17 30 6 15 22 13 DK/NA 43 45 35 44 40 45 25. Would you say that James McGreevey has a likable personality or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 54% 42% 70% 56% 54% 54% No 17 25 7 17 19 14 DK/NA 29 33 23 28 27 31 26. Would you say that James McGreevey has strong leadership qualities or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 45% 30% 60% 47% 42% 47% No 20 34 7 19 24 16 DK/NA 35 36 33 34 33 37 27. Would you say that James McGreevey is honest and trustworthy or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 42% 33% 58% 42% 42% 41% No 20 30 11 20 24 17 DK/NA 38 38 31 39 34 41 28. Would you say that James McGreevey is sympathetic to the problems of the poor or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 50% 46% 62% 48% 50% 49% No 14 18 6 15 16 12 DK/NA 36 36 32 37 34 39 29. Would you say that James McGreevey works well with other political leaders or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 43% 34% 53% 46% 42% 44% No 11 17 6 9 14 9 DK/NA 46 49 41 44 44 47 30. Who do you think would do a better job handling auto insurance, Christine Whitman or James McGreevey? Sep 16 Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1997 Whitman 27% 53% 9% 20% 34% 20% 33% McGreevey 50 26 75 54 45 55 42 SAME/NO DIFFERENCE (VOL) 11 12 6 14 13 10 13 DK/NA 11 9 10 12 7 15 12 31. Who do you think would do a better job handling education, Christine Whitman or James McGreevey? Sep 16 Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1997 Whitman 46% 72% 22% 43% 55% 38% 49% McGreevey 36 14 63 36 31 41 31 SAME/NO DIFFERENCE (VOL) 6 4 4 8 7 5 5 DK/NA 11 9 11 13 7 16 14 32. Who do you think would do a better job handling taxes, Christine Whitman or James McGreevey? Sep 16 Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1997 Whitman 44% 72% 19% 39% 54% 34% 48% McGreevey 38 14 65 41 32 44 36 SAME/NO DIFFERENCE (VOL) 7 7 4 7 6 8 6 DK/NA 11 8 11 13 8 14 11 33. Who do you think would do a better job handling crime, Christine Whitman or James McGreevey? Sep 16 Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1997 Whitman 54% 79% 29% 51% 63% 46% 50% McGreevey 24 9 46 22 20 27 25 SAME/NO DIFFERENCE (VOL) 8 4 5 10 8 7 8 DK/NA 15 7 19 17 10 20 17 34. Who do you think would do a better job handling the economy and jobs, Christine Whitman or James McGreevey? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Whitman 55% 84% 28% 52% 65% 45% McGreevey 30 9 54 31 24 36 SAME/NO DIFFERENCE (VOL) 5 2 5 6 4 6 DK/NA 10 6 12 11 7 13 35. Who do you think would do a better job handling the environment, Christine Whitman or James McGreevey? Sep 16 Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1997 Whitman 44% 63% 26% 40% 49% 40% 44% McGreevey 35 20 53 36 33 37 34 SAME/NO DIFFERENCE (VOL) 7 7 4 8 9 5 6 DK/NA 14 9 17 15 10 18 16 36. Who do you think would do a better job handling welfare, Christine Whitman or James McGreevey? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Whitman 42% 67% 19% 38% 47% 36% McGreevey 39 20 62 39 35 43 SAME/NO DIFFERENCE (VOL) 5 3 3 8 6 4 DK/NA 14 9 16 15 12 17 37. Who do you think would do a better job handling poverty and homlessness, Christine Whitman or James McGreevey? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Whitman 29% 50% 10% 27% 34% 25% McGreevey 48 29 72 49 45 50 SAME/NO DIFFERENCE (VOL) 7 9 3 7 9 6 DK/NA 15 11 14 17 12 19 54. Which statement comes closest to your point of view? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom I'd rather pay higher taxes and support a larger government that provides more services 27% 16% 45% 26% 20% 34% I'd rather pay lower taxes and have a smaller government that provides fewer services. 64 78 46 65 73 56 DK/NA 9 6 10 9 7 10 56. How serious a problem do you think sexual harassment is in the country today? A very serious problem, somewhat serious, not very serious, or not a problem at all? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Very serious 25% 18% 32% 26% 21% 29% Smwht serious 47 46 47 47 44 50 Not very serious 22 27 15 22 28 16 Not a problem at all 4 6 3 3 5 3 DK/NA 2 3 3 2 2 3
