March 13, 2008 - Kelly Tops List For New York City Mayor, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Back Congestion Pricing, If Funds Go To Transit Word format New York City Police Commissioner Ray Kelly tops the list when voters are asked whom they would like to see elected Mayor next year, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Kelly also has the highest approval rating among most of the mayoral possibilities. The independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll lists choices, with no party affiliation, and asks New York City voters to select the one they most want to see elected Mayor in 2009. Results are: Kelly - 22 percent, including 16 percent of Democrats; U.S. Rep. Anthony Weiner - 14 percent, with 15 percent of Democrats; Brooklyn Borough President Marty Markowitz - 14 percent; 15 percent of Democrats; Council Speaker Christine Quinn - 13 percent; 16 percent of Democrats; Public Advocate Betsy Gotbaum - 8 percent; 9 percent of Democrats; Comptroller William Thompson - 8 percent; 10 percent of Democrats. Kelly gets a 62 - 28 percent approval rating, with white voters approving 75 - 16 percent, black voters split 44 - 44 percent and Hispanic voters approving 58 - 34 percent. Approval ratings for other citywide officials are: Quinn: 48 - 15 percent; Thompson: 44 - 11 percent; Gotbaum: 45 - 18 percent. "Number one in the early line for mayor next year - Police Commissioner Ray Kelly. Kelly has political pluses and minuses. Probably it's due to all the news about the Bell trial, but his job approval rating, healthy overall, is only a standoff in the Black community. Among Republicans, which is the party line most politicians think he'd run on, he's the big favorite, " said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Three Democrats are bunched in the teens: Brooklyn Borough President Marty Markowitz, City Council Speaker Christine Quinn and Congressman Anthony Weiner," Carroll added. Congestion Pricing By a 56 - 38 percent margin, New York City voters oppose the revised congestion pricing plan to charge a fee for vehicles driving below 60th Street in Manhattan. But by a 59 - 38 percent margin, voters say they would support congestion pricing if the money is used to improve mass transit in and around New York City. Support for congestion pricing, if the money is used for mass transit is: Manhattan: 73 - 23 percent; Bronx: 57 - 39 percent; Brooklyn: 51 - 46 percent; Queens: 58 - 40 percent; Staten Island: 55 - 42 percent. Only 43 percent of voters say it is "very likely" or "somewhat likely" that congestion pricing funds will be used to improve mass transit, while 54 percent say this is "not too likely" or "not likely at all." By a 58 - 36 percent margin, New York City voters agree that congestion pricing would unfairly tax people who live outside Manhattan. Only Manhattan voters disagree, 52 - 43 percent, with that claim. A total of 89 percent of New York City voters say traffic congestion is a "very serious" or "somewhat serious" problem in the city. "As decision time approaches in City Hall and Albany, the numbers don't change. Congestion pricing: No. Congestion pricing if the money helps mass transit: Yes," Carroll said. "But New Yorkers are skeptical of promises by politicians who support congestion pricing. Most voters doubt that the money really would find its way to mass transit improvements. "Again, it's Manhattan against the world. In the other boroughs, they think congestion pricing would unfairly tax people outside of Manhattan. People in Manhattan disagree." From March 4 - 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,427 New York City registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201. 2. Now I'm going to name six people who might run for Mayor next year. After I read all six names, please tell me which one you would most like to see elected Mayor in 2009. Here are the choices: Brooklyn Borough President Marty Markowitz, Police Commissioner Ray Kelly, Congressman Anthony Weiner, City Council Speaker Christine Quinn, City Comptroller William Thompson, and Public Advocate Betsy Gotbaum? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Markowitz 14% 10% 15% 15% 12% 23% 11% Kelly 22 48 16 23 27 12 25 Weiner 14 11 15 13 17 7 15 Quinn 13 8 16 9 13 10 14 Thompson 8 2 10 8 4 20 7 Gotbaum 8 3 9 8 7 12 5 DK/NA 21 19 20 23 21 16 22 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Markowitz 3% 31% 6% 9% 15% 12% 16% Kelly 26 17 19 25 34 27 18 Weiner 11 12 11 19 17 18 11 Quinn 18 10 19 9 7 10 15 Thompson 11 9 8 8 3 8 9 Gotbaum 10 4 13 7 2 5 10 DK/NA 21 16 25 24 23 21 21 3. If Michael Bloomberg endorses a candidate for Mayor, would that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or wouldn't it make a difference? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp More likely 26% 29% 26% 28% 30% 16% 26% Less likely 8 7 7 9 7 10 9 Doesn't make diff 63 62 65 60 62 71 59 DK/NA 2 2 2 3 1 2 6 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom More likely 22% 22% 37% 25% 20% 27% 25% Less likely 8 9 7 9 12 9 8 Doesn't make diff 67 67 55 63 66 63 64 DK/NA 3 2 1 3 3 2 3 4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ray Kelly is handling his job as Police Commissioner? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Approve 62% 84% 58% 65% 75% 44% 58% Disapprove 28 12 30 26 16 44 34 DK/NA 10 4 12 9 9 11 8 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Approve 58% 57% 62% 69% 70% 68% 57% Disapprove 33 29 30 22 24 23 31 DK/NA 9 15 8 9 6 9 12 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ray Kelly is handling his job as Police Commissioner? * 70% on 2/3/06 Highest Lowest Approve Approve Mar 13 Jan 9 Nov 19 Aug 29 Jul 25 Mar 9 Jan 16 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2006 * 2007 Approve 62 60 55 62 64 70 52 Disapprove 28 23 30 25 26 17 34 DK/NA 10 16 16 13 11 13 14 5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joel Klein is handling his job as New York City Schools Chancellor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Approve 40% 40% 42% 39% 39% 45% 42% Disapprove 39 35 38 42 36 39 44 DK/NA 21 25 20 20 25 17 14 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Approve 43% 38% 42% 41% 36% 42% 39% Disapprove 40 42 30 40 45 37 40 DK/NA 17 20 28 20 19 21 21 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joel Klein is handling his job as New York City Schools Chancellor? Highest Lowest Approve Approve Mar 13 Jan 9 Nov 21 Aug 29 Jul 26 Feb 26 Mar 15 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2003 2007 Approve 40 40 44 39 41 46 33 Disapprove 39 37 36 37 39 27 43 DK/NA 21 24 20 23 20 28 24 6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Betsy Gotbaum is handling her job as Public Advocate? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Approve 45% 25% 52% 42% 40% 57% 45% Disapprove 18 32 14 21 19 14 21 DK/NA 37 43 35 37 41 28 34 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Approve 48% 46% 46% 44% 43% 43% 47% Disapprove 18 20 14 20 17 22 15 DK/NA 35 34 41 37 39 36 38 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Betsy Gotbaum is handling her job as Public Advocate? Highest Lowest Approve Approve Mar 13 Jan 9 Nov 19 Aug 29 Jul 25 Mar 13 Feb 26 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2008 2003 Approve 45 44 40 39 40 45 34 Disapprove 18 18 19 18 17 18 17 DK/NA 37 38 40 43 43 37 49 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christine Quinn is handling her job as City Council Speaker? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Approve 48% 36% 53% 44% 47% 53% 48% Disapprove 15 27 11 19 15 18 11 DK/NA 37 37 36 36 38 29 41 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Approve 61% 44% 47% 47% 41% 44% 51% Disapprove 12 18 12 15 23 21 11 DK/NA 27 38 41 38 37 35 38 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christine Quinn is handling her job as City Council Speaker? Highest Lowest Approve Approve Mar 13 Jan 9 Nov 19 Aug 29 Jul 25 Mar 14 Aug 29 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Approve 48 48 46 44 45 51 44 Disapprove 15 14 16 16 15 12 16 DK/NA 37 38 37 40 40 37 40 8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way William Thompson is handling his job as City Comptroller? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Approve 44% 35% 46% 47% 38% 58% 43% Disapprove 11 13 11 9 8 14 12 DK/NA 46 52 43 44 55 28 45 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Approve 46% 49% 35% 47% 36% 46% 42% Disapprove 15 9 7 10 22 11 10 DK/NA 40 43 57 43 42 43 48 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way William Thompson is handling his job as City Comptroller? Highest Lowest Approve Approve Mar 13 Jan 9 Nov 19 Aug 29 Jul 25 Jan 9 Feb 26 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2008 2003 Approve 44 48 45 41 43 48 35 Disapprove 11 14 15 12 12 14 13 DK/NA 46 38 41 47 45 38 52 9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the city council is handling its job? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Approve 50% 33% 55% 47% 48% 55% 52% Disapprove 29 44 23 35 25 32 29 DK/NA 21 23 21 18 27 14 19 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Approve 52% 49% 49% 48% 54% 46% 52% Disapprove 32 32 25 28 29 37 23 DK/NA 16 20 26 24 17 17 25 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the city council is handling its job? Highest Highest Approve Approve Mar 13 Jan 9 Nov 19 Aug 29 Jul 25 Mar 13 Aug 29 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2008 2007 Approve 50 46 45 44 48 50 44 Disapprove 29 31 32 32 32 29 32 DK/NA 21 23 23 25 20 21 25 10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the New York City police are doing their job? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Approve 60% 83% 54% 65% 78% 33% 57% Disapprove 33 15 37 28 16 58 37 DK/NA 7 3 8 7 6 9 6 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Approve 53% 57% 61% 65% 65% 64% 57% Disapprove 41 35 30 28 29 31 35 DK/NA 6 7 9 7 6 6 9 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the New York City police are doing their job? Highest Lowest Approve Approve Mar 13 Mar 15 Jan 16 Apr 13 Jun 23 Feb 7 Apr 20 2008 2007 2007 2006 2005 2002 2000 Approve 60 60 53 72 69 76 43 Disapprove 33 33 40 20 23 18 48 DK/NA 7 6 8 8 7 6 9 20. There is a proposal to use congestion pricing to reduce traffic in New York City by charging a fee for vehicles that drive south of 60th Street in Manhattan. Do you support or oppose this congestion pricing plan? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Support 38% 32% 38% 42% 42% 25% 36% Oppose 56 63 56 53 52 68 61 DK/NA 6 5 6 5 6 7 4 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Support 27% 37% 53% 32% 33% 43% 33% Oppose 62 58 42 62 63 52 59 DK/NA 11 5 6 6 4 5 7 21. Would you support congestion pricing if the money were used to improve mass transit in and around New York City? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Yes 59% 42% 62% 61% 58% 53% 65% No 38 52 35 35 39 43 31 DK/NA 3 6 2 4 3 4 4 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Yes 57% 51% 73% 58% 55% 58% 60% No 39 46 23 40 42 40 36 DK/NA 4 3 5 3 2 2 4 TREND: Would you support congestion pricing if the money were used to improve mass transit in and around New York City? Mar 13 Jan 10 2008 2008 Yes 59 60 No 38 37 DK/NA 3 3 22. How likely do you think it is that the money from congestion pricing would be used to improve mass transit in and around New York City? Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely or not likely at all? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Very likely 11% 10% 12% 8% 11% 8% 11% Smwht likely 32 28 33 35 32 30 34 Not too likely 25 20 27 21 25 25 23 Not likely at all 29 40 24 34 29 32 28 DK/NA 4 2 4 2 4 4 3 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Very likely 6% 10% 15% 10% 9% 12% 9% Smwht likely 35 31 36 28 35 32 33 Not too likely 26 23 23 27 20 21 27 Not likely at all 28 32 23 29 36 32 26 DK/NA 5 3 3 5 - 3 4 23. Do you agree or disagree with the following statement - Congestion pricing would unfairly tax people who live outside of Manhattan? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Agree 58% 66% 59% 51% 55% 65% 61% Disagree 36 30 35 45 40 29 33 DK/NA 6 4 6 4 5 6 6 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Agree 59% 62% 43% 65% 69% 56% 60% Disagree 31 33 52 31 25 39 34 DK/NA 10 5 5 4 6 4 7 TREND: Do you you agree or disagree with the following statement - Congestion pricing would unfairly tax people who live outside of Manhattan. Mar 13 Jan 10 Nov 19 May 24 Jan 18 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 Agree 58 54 54 59 57 Disagree 36 42 42 36 37 DK/NA 6 4 4 5 7 24. How much of a problem do you think traffic congestion is in New York City? A very serious problem, somewhat serious, not very serious, or not a problem at all? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Very serious 52% 48% 52% 56% 52% 50% 50% Smwht serious 37 41 36 37 40 33 38 Not very serious 8 9 9 6 6 11 10 Not a prob at all 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 DK/NA 1 - 2 - 1 4 - Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Very serious 54% 48% 52% 53% 56% 50% 53% Smwht serious 31 40 36 39 40 40 36 Not very serious 10 10 9 6 4 8 9 Not a prob at all 2 1 1 2 - 2 1 DK/NA 3 1 1 - - - 2 TREND: How much of a problem do you think traffic congestion is in New York City? A very serious problem, somewhat serious, not very serious, or not a problem at all? Mar 13 Jan 10 Nov 19 Aug 30 May 24 Jan 18 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 Very serious 52 52 52 55 59 55 Smwht serious 37 39 35 34 31 34 Not very serious 8 6 9 8 7 6 Not at all 1 2 2 1 2 2 DK/NA 1 1 2 2 2 2
