May 7, 2008 - Kelly Leads 'Guess List' For 2009 NYC Mayor's Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Few Blame Quinn For City Council Budget Scandal Word format Police Commissioner Ray Kelly's approval rating has dropped among black voters, but he still tops the list of possible contenders in the 2009 New York City mayor's race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. City Council Speaker Christine Quinn has slipped a few points and Comptroller William Thompson is up slightly. Kelly's approval rating is 59 - 30 percent, including a negative 36 - 55 percent among black voters. This compares with a 62 - 28 percent approval, including 44 - 44 percent among black voters, in a March 13 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Choosing from six possible candidates, 23 percent of New York City voters say they would most like Kelly as Mayor next year, compared to 22 percent March 13. Other results are: U.S. Rep. Anthony Weiner - 16 percent, compared to 14 percent March 13; Brooklyn Borough President Marty Markowitz - 13 percent, compared 14 percent; Thompson - 10 percent, compared to 8 percent; Quinn - 10 percent, compared to 13 percent; Public Advocate Betsy Gotbaum - 6 percent, compared to 8 percent. Mayor Michael Bloomberg, meanwhile, has a 70 - 22 percent approval rating, down from 75 - 17 percent March 12. In 30 months of Quinnipiac University polls, Bloomberg's approval has dropped below 70 percent - to 69 percent - just once. "Commissioner Ray Kelly still leads the potential pack in the 2009 mayor's race, but the Sean Bell case seems to have had an impact. Kelly's job rating among black New Yorkers, which has been up and down for 18 months, turns negative again," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The city's love affair with Mayor Mike persists." "Even after the congestion pricing setback and the Bell verdict, Mayor Bloomberg's job approval is in the stratosphere," Carroll added. City Council Scandal A total of 50 percent of New York City voters say they've heard or read "a lot" or "some" about the City Council allocating funds to groups that do not exist, while 48 percent say they've heard or read "not much" or "nothing at all." By a 65 - 11 percent margin, voters say this practice is "corrupt" rather than "necessary because of the way the budget laws are written." Margins are consistent among all groups. Council Speaker Quinn is most responsible for these so-called "phantom budget items," 21 percent of voters say, while 23 percent say previous City Council speakers are responsible and 15 percent say staff members are responsible. Another 41 percent are undecided. But 52 percent of voters say Quinn knew this practice was going on, while 14 percent believe her when she says she thought the practice had ended. And 46 percent of voters say Bloomberg knew of the 'phantom budget items," while 26 percent believe his claim that he did not know about it. Voters say 81 - 11 percent that City Council members should not be allowed to direct city money to non-profit organizations that employ their relatives. "The City Council's fiscal legerdemain wasn't just budgetary business as usual, New Yorkers think; it was crooked," Carroll said. "Council Speaker Christine Quinn knew, most voters think. Many think Bloomberg did, too. "But so far, not many voters are blaming Speaker Quinn. They apparently think the phantom budgeting was historical. She shares the blame with former Council speakers. "New Yorkers don't like pork - or 'member items' as it's called in City Hall and Albany, or 'earmarks' in Washington - if the money finds its way to legislators' families." From April 30 - May 5, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,790 New York City registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.3 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201. 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Michael Bloomberg is handling his job as Mayor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Approve 70% 71% 71% 72% 77% 62% 66% Disapprove 22 23 23 20 18 29 27 DK/NA 8 6 6 8 6 10 7 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Approve 65% 66% 79% 68% 73% 73% 68% Disapprove 25 26 16 24 20 21 24 DK/NA 10 8 5 8 8 6 9 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Michael Bloomberg is handling his job as Mayor? * - also 75% on 1/16/07 & 11/17/2005 Highest Lowest Approve Approve May 7 Mar 12 Jan 9 Nov 19 Aug 29 Mar 12 Jul 2 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2008* 2003 Approve 70 75 73 71 70 75 31 Disapprove 22 17 20 21 21 17 60 DK/NA 8 8 7 8 10 8 8 2. Now I'm going to name six people who might run for mayor next year. After I read all six names, please tell me which one you would most like to see elected mayor in 2009. Here are the choices: Brooklyn Borough President Marty Markowitz, Police Commissioner Ray Kelly, Congressman Anthony Weiner, City Council Speaker Christine Quinn, City Comptroller William Thompson or Public Advocate Betsy Gotbaum? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Markowitz 13% 8% 14% 13% 9% 22% 13% Kelly 23 45 16 30 28 12 25 Weiner 16 14 17 15 23 9 11 Quinn 10 5 12 8 12 9 9 Thompson 10 4 12 7 5 22 7 Gotbaum 6 4 7 6 5 10 6 DK/NA 22 21 21 22 20 16 28 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Markowitz 7% 27% 7% 6% 11% 12% 14% Kelly 21 20 17 29 36 27 20 Weiner 14 16 16 17 15 17 15 Quinn 13 7 15 10 7 8 12 Thompson 13 10 10 9 6 10 10 Gotbaum 6 5 8 6 6 3 9 DK/NA 25 16 28 22 19 23 21 TREND: Now I'm going to name six people who might run for Mayor next year. After I read all six names, please tell me which one you would most like to see elected Mayor in 2009. Here are the choices: Brooklyn Borough President Marty Markowitz, Police Commissioner Ray Kelly, Congressman Anthony Weiner, City Council Speaker Christine Quinn, City Comptroller William Thompson, and Public Advocate Betsy Gotbaum? May 7 Mar 13 2008 2008 Markowitz 13 14 Kelly 23 22 Weiner 16 14 Quinn 10 13 Thompson 10 8 Gotbaum 6 8 DK/NA 22 21 3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ray Kelly is handling his job as Police Commissioner? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Approve 59% 78% 55% 64% 76% 36% 55% Disapprove 30 16 32 28 13 55 38 DK/NA 11 6 13 8 11 9 7 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Approve 54% 56% 62% 59% 69% 62% 56% Disapprove 39 32 27 28 24 30 31 DK/NA 7 12 11 13 7 8 13 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ray Kelly is handling his job as Police Commissioner? * also 70% on 2/3/06 Highest Lowest Approve Approve May 7 Mar 13 Jan 9 Nov 19 Aug 29 Mar 9 Jan 16 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2006 * 2007 Approve 59 62 60 55 62 70 52 Disapprove 30 28 23 30 25 17 34 DK/NA 11 10 16 16 13 13 14 4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joel Klein handling his job as New York City Schools Chancellor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Approve 37% 37% 37% 40% 37% 38% 37% Disapprove 41 38 42 38 38 46 44 DK/NA 22 25 20 23 25 17 19 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Approve 37% 34% 42% 37% 37% 41% 34% Disapprove 47 43 34 42 44 38 44 DK/NA 16 23 24 21 19 22 21 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joel Klein is handling his job as New York City Schools Chancellor? Highest Lowest Approve Approve May 7 Mar 13 Jan 9 Nov 21 Aug 29 Feb 26 Mar 15 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2003 2007 Approve 37 40 40 44 39 46 33 Disapprove 41 39 37 36 37 27 43 DK/NA 22 21 24 20 23 28 24 5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Betsy Gotbaum is handling her job as Public Advocate? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Approve 48% 37% 52% 46% 44% 56% 52% Disapprove 18 27 15 22 18 18 17 DK/NA 33 35 33 32 38 25 31 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Approve 58% 47% 47% 45% 48% 40% 55% Disapprove 18 16 16 22 22 25 13 DK/NA 23 36 37 33 29 34 32 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Betsy Gotbaum is handling her job as Public Advocate? Highest Lowest Approve Approve May 7 Mar 13 Jan 9 Nov 19 Aug 29 May 7 Feb 26 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2008 2003 Approve 48 45 44 40 39 48 34 Disapprove 18 18 18 19 18 18 17 DK/NA 33 37 38 40 43 33 49 6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christine Quinn is handling her job as City Council Speaker? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Approve 43% 36% 48% 40% 40% 47% 50% Disapprove 30 35 26 35 33 30 21 DK/NA 27 30 26 25 26 23 30 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Approve 46% 43% 46% 41% 38% 38% 48% Disapprove 28 31 28 30 34 36 25 DK/NA 27 26 27 28 28 26 28 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christine Quinn is handling her job as City Council Speaker? Highest Lowest Approve Approve May 7 Mar 13 Jan 9 Nov 19 Aug 29 Mar 14 May 7 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2008 Approve 43 48 48 46 44 51 43 Disapprove 30 15 14 16 16 12 30 DK/NA 27 37 38 37 40 37 27 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way William Thompson is handling his job as City Comptroller? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Approve 51% 48% 52% 53% 46% 61% 50% Disapprove 16 22 14 15 11 18 22 DK/NA 33 30 34 32 44 21 28 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Approve 59% 53% 46% 49% 49% 55% 48% Disapprove 15 17 12 18 19 15 16 DK/NA 26 31 42 33 32 29 36 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way William Thompson is handling his job as City Comptroller? Highest Lowest Approve Approve May 7 Mar 13 Jan 9 Nov 19 Aug 29 May 7 Feb 26 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2008 2003 Approve 51 44 48 45 41 51 35 Disapprove 16 11 14 15 12 16 13 DK/NA 33 46 38 41 47 33 52 8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the city council is handling its job? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Approve 47% 41% 51% 39% 44% 50% 50% Disapprove 38 41 33 47 38 38 37 DK/NA 16 18 16 13 18 12 13 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Approve 51% 49% 46% 44% 36% 42% 50% Disapprove 35 37 35 42 44 45 33 DK/NA 14 14 19 14 20 13 17 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the city council is handling its job? Highest Highest Approve Approve May 7 Mar 13 Jan 9 Nov 19 Aug 29 Mar 13 Aug 29 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2008 2007 Approve 47 50 46 45 44 50 44 Disapprove 38 29 31 32 32 29 32 DK/NA 16 21 23 23 25 21 25 36. How much have you heard or read about the New York City Council allocating money to groups that do not exist, so called "phantom budget items", and then later transferring the money to other groups - A lot, some, not much, or nothing at all? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp A lot 23% 24% 23% 23% 27% 22% 19% Some 27 23 26 32 32 26 18 Not much 16 16 16 16 13 19 19 Nothing at all 32 35 33 28 26 31 42 DK/NA 2 3 2 - 2 2 1 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom A lot 22% 19% 27% 23% 27% 27% 20% Some 23 28 31 25 22 29 26 Not much 20 16 11 16 29 13 19 Nothing at all 33 34 29 33 20 30 33 DK/NA 3 3 1 2 2 1 3 37. Do you think this practice is corrupt or do you think this practice is necessary because of the way the budget laws are written? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Corrupt 65% 72% 63% 69% 64% 72% 64% Necessary 11 7 12 12 12 10 14 DK/NA 23 22 25 19 24 18 21 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Corrupt 69% 67% 59% 68% 66% 68% 63% Necessary 12 10 13 11 15 12 11 DK/NA 19 24 29 21 19 20 26 38. Who do you think was most responsible for the so called "phantom budget items" - Council Speaker Christine Quinn, previous City Council Speakers, or staff members? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Council Speaker Christine Quinn 21% 26% 20% 23% 23% 21% 19% Previous City Council Speakers 23 20 23 25 26 26 19 Staff members 15 15 15 16 12 18 19 DK/NA 41 39 41 36 40 35 43 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Council Speaker Christine Quinn 26% 19% 19% 22% 26% 25% 19% Previous City Council Speakers 22 20 28 23 23 26 21 Staff members 16 14 13 17 17 14 16 DK/NA 36 47 40 39 34 36 45 39. Do you think Council Speaker Quinn knew this practice was going on or do you think she believed this practice had ended? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Knew it was going on 52% 60% 48% 59% 53% 55% 50% Believed it had ended 14 10 16 12 13 15 18 DK/NA 34 30 36 29 34 30 33 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Knew it was going on 53% 52% 45% 57% 61% 59% 47% Believed it had ended 15 12 17 12 13 12 15 DK/NA 31 37 38 31 26 29 38 40. Do you think Mayor Bloomberg was aware of the so called "phantom budget items" before it was reported in the media? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Yes 46% 42% 46% 49% 39% 55% 53% No 26 32 24 29 29 26 21 DK/NA 28 27 30 22 32 19 26 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Yes 55% 48% 39% 44% 48% 44% 48% No 21 22 28 29 31 29 23 DK/NA 24 29 33 27 21 27 29 41. Do you think Council Members should be allowed to direct city money to non- profit organizations that employ their relatives? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Yes 11% 18% 10% 8% 11% 10% 11% No 81 75 82 88 83 80 80 DK/NA 8 8 8 4 6 10 8 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Yes 11% 11% 13% 8% 11% 12% 10% No 81 79 80 85 85 79 83 DK/NA 8 10 8 7 4 9 8
