October 21, 2008 - New Yorkers Tilt Against Third Term For Bloomberg, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; 87 Percent Say Let Voters Decide In Referendum Word format By a 51 - 45 percent margin, New York City voters oppose extending the eight-year term limit to 12 years so they can elect Mayor Michael Bloomberg to a third term, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to a similar, but not identical, question in an October 3 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll in which New Yorkers supported 54 - 42 percent extending term limits for four more years of Mayor Bloomberg. That question was asked before the Mayor formally announced that he would ask to extend term limits and seek a third term. In this latest survey, Democrats oppose extending term limits 53 - 43 percent and independent voters split with 50 percent opposed and 48 percent supporting it. Republicans support the four-year extension 54 - 44 percent. Whites back the idea 56 - 41 percent while black voters oppose it 62 - 35 percent and Hispanic voters oppose it 53 - 42 percent. New York City voters approve 75 - 20 percent of the job Bloomberg is doing, tying his record, and 59 percent say they "definitely" or "probably' would vote for him if term limits are extended and he is on the ballot next year. "Opponents of Mayor Bloomberg's plan to extend term limits are winning - narrowly - the battle for the hearts and mind of New Yorkers," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "They love Mayor Mike and two weeks ago they were ready to give him a third term, in a hypothetical situation. But now that it's real and other voices are being heard, voters are having second thoughts." Looking at another term limit question, 50 percent of New Yorkers say changing the rules in the middle of the game is unfair, while 46 percent say Bloomberg deserves four more years to finish his work as Mayor. Voters support 62 - 29 percent the overall concept of term limits. And in a question where no person is named, they oppose 56 - 36 percent extending term limits from eight years to 12 years for all elected New York City officials. They also oppose 60 - 31 percent extending term limits so their local City Council member can serve for more years. By an 89 - 7 percent margin, New York City voters say the issue of term limits should be decided by voters in a referendum, not by an act of the City Council. Even Republican voters prefer a referendum 85 - 11 percent. If there is a referendum, voters would oppose 52 - 41 percent "extending term limits for four more years for all elected New York City officials, including the Mayor." Results among Democrats, Republicans and independent voters are consistent. White voters say 50 - 44 percent they would vote to extend term limits, while black voters would vote no 60 - 32 percent and Hispanic voters would oppose the extension 56 - 37 percent. "Voters to City Council: We voted for term limits twice and, if it's going to change, it should be us - not you - who decide it," Carroll said. Despite the economic collapse and the threat that collapse poses to the city budget, Bloomberg would meet these challenges and have a successful third term, 64 percent of voters say. Another 22 percent say these challenges would overwhelm Bloomberg and damage his record. "Remember what happened to Mayor Koch and Gov. Cuomo during their third terms? New Yorkers don't think it will happen to Bloomberg. By almost 3-1, they reject the history lesson that third terms are trouble," Carroll said. "A reelected Mayor Mike will meet the job's challenges, New Yorkers think. Only one in five thinks he'll damage his reputation. From October 15 - 19, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,017 New York City registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201. 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Michael Bloomberg is handling his job as Mayor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Approve 75% 82% 72% 80% 83% 69% 66% Disapprove 20 16 22 14 14 24 24 DK/NA 6 3 5 6 2 8 10 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Approve 73% 70% 82% 75% 71% 78% 71% Disapprove 22 22 14 18 27 19 20 DK/NA 5 8 4 6 1 3 8 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Michael Bloomberg is handling his job as Mayor? * also 75% on 10/03/08, 3/12/08, 1/16/07 & 11/17/05 Highest Lowest Approve Approve Oct 21 Oct 3 Jul 16 May 7 Mar 12 Oct 21 Jul 2 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008* 2003 Approve 75 75 71 70 75 75 31 Disapprove 20 19 22 22 17 19 60 DK/NA 6 6 6 8 8 6 8 2. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New York City today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Very satisfied 14% 23% 11% 15% 17% 11% 12% Smwht satisfied 46 53 46 48 57 40 38 Smwht dissatisfied 24 16 27 25 19 24 31 Very dissatisfied 14 7 15 13 6 24 17 DK/NA 1 2 1 - 1 1 2 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Very satisfied 12% 11% 17% 15% 15% 15% 13% Smwht satisfied 39 45 50 46 54 52 41 Smwht dissatisfied 26 25 23 25 21 21 27 Very dissatisfied 22 17 8 13 9 10 18 DK/NA 1 2 1 - 1 1 1 TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New York City today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? Oct 21 Oct 3 Jul 16 May 8 Nov 19 Jul 25 Jul 12 Apr 12 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2006 2006 Very satisfied 14 12 9 8 12 10 16 12 Smwht satisfied 46 48 48 47 53 54 51 56 Smwht dissatisfied 24 23 26 28 22 23 22 22 Very dissatisfied 14 16 15 16 11 12 10 9 DK/NA 1 1 1 - 2 1 1 1 3. Generally speaking, do you favor or oppose setting limits on the number of years elected officials can hold office? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Favor 62% 68% 62% 63% 62% 62% 60% Oppose 29 27 30 27 32 28 26 DK/NA 9 5 8 9 6 10 14 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Favor 66% 62% 58% 63% 69% 63% 62% Oppose 21 30 31 29 27 30 27 DK/NA 13 8 11 8 4 7 11 TREND: Generally speaking, do you favor or oppose setting limits on the number of years elected officials can hold office? Oct 21 Oct 3 Jul 16 Mar 1 2008 2008 2008 2001 Favor 62 65 71 67 Oppose 29 29 23 28 DK/NA 9 6 6 5 4. Currently, there is an 8 year time limit for all elected New York City officials. Do you favor or oppose extending this limit to 12 years? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Favor 36% 43% 35% 35% 45% 26% 33% Oppose 56 51 56 59 48 66 58 DK/NA 8 5 9 6 7 8 9 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Favor 30% 28% 46% 37% 45% 39% 33% Oppose 63 64 41 59 52 57 56 DK/NA 8 8 13 4 4 4 11 TREND: Currently, there is an 8 year term limit for all elected New York City officials. Do you favor or oppose extending this limit to 12 years? Oct 21 Oct 3 Jul 16 Mar 1 2008 2008 2008 2001 Favor 36 39 32 34 Oppose 56 56 65 63 DK/NA 8 5 3 4 5. As you may know, Michael Bloomberg will have served 8 years as Mayor by the end of 2009. Mayor Bloomberg has said he would like to run for a third term as mayor. Would you favor or oppose extending the 8 year time limit so you could vote for him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Favor 45% 54% 43% 48% 56% 35% 42% Oppose 51 44 53 50 41 62 53 DK/NA 3 2 4 2 3 3 5 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Favor 37% 39% 57% 46% 53% 45% 46% Oppose 62 57 39 51 46 53 50 DK/NA 2 5 4 3 1 2 5 TREND: As you may know, Michael Bloomberg will have served 8 years as Mayor by the end of 2009. Mayor Bloomberg has said he would like to run for a third term as mayor. Would you favor or oppose extending the 8 year time limit so you could vote for him? * wording "If Mayor Bloomberg commits to running..." Oct 21 Oct 3 Jul 16 2008 2008* 2008* Favor 45 54 38 Oppose 51 42 56 DK/NA 3 4 5 6. Would you favor or oppose extending the 8 year time limit so your local City Council member can serve four more years? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Favor 31% 26% 30% 37% 38% 23% 24% Oppose 60 64 59 57 53 71 61 DK/NA 9 9 11 5 9 6 16 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Favor 25% 31% 37% 29% 32% 32% 30% Oppose 69 60 50 62 63 64 55 DK/NA 6 9 13 9 6 4 14 TREND: Would you favor or oppose extending the 8 year time limit so your local City Council member can serve four more years? Oct 21 Oct 3 Jul 16 2008 2008 2008 Favor 31 35 26 Oppose 60 58 66 DK/NA 9 7 8 7. If term limits are altered or abolished and Mayor Bloomberg could run again, which comes closest to your feelings: Bloomberg has a lot of good programs he wants to finish;he should get four more years in office OR Changing the rules in the middle of the game is unfair;someone else should have the chance to be mayor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Four more years 46% 54% 44% 52% 58% 37% 44% Change is unfair 50 44 53 47 38 61 54 DK/NA 3 2 3 1 4 3 3 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Four more years 39% 40% 56% 47% 55% 46% 47% Change is unfair 59 56 39 51 45 51 50 DK/NA 2 4 6 2 1 3 3 TREND: If term limits are altered or abolished and Mayor Bloomberg could run again, which comes closest to your feelings: Bloomberg has a lot of good programs he wants to finish; he should get four more years in office OR Changing the rules in the middle of the game is unfair; someone else should have the chance to be mayor? Oct 21 Oct 3 Jul 16 2008 2008 2008 Four more years 46 52 40 Change is unfair 50 44 55 DK/NA 3 5 5 8. Who do you think should decide the issue of whether or not to extend term limits by four more years - the City Council or the voters in a referendum? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp City Council 7% 11% 6% 4% 9% 5% 5% Voters 89 85 90 93 89 91 88 DK/NA 4 4 4 3 3 4 7 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom City Council 4% 7% 7% 6% 9% 9% 4% Voters 93 86 88 91 91 88 90 DK/NA 2 7 5 3 - 3 5 9. If there is a referendum, would you vote for or against extending term limits by four more years for all elected New York City officials, including the Mayor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp For 41% 40% 41% 42% 50% 32% 37% Against 52 52 52 53 44 60 56 DK/NA 7 8 7 4 6 9 7 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom For 38% 35% 52% 41% 45% 44% 39% Against 56 57 40 53 52 52 51 DK/NA 6 8 9 7 3 4 10 10. If term limits are extended and Mayor Bloomberg runs for reelection in 2009, how likely is it that you would vote for him? Would you definitely vote for him, probably vote for him, probably not vote for him, or definitely not vote for him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Definitely 32% 45% 29% 35% 37% 29% 29% Probably 27 21 29 28 31 21 28 Probably not 13 8 14 10 9 18 14 Definitely not 21 17 23 19 15 25 24 DK/NA 7 9 6 7 7 7 4 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Definitely 25% 30% 37% 34% 36% 33% 32% Probably 26 25 32 25 25 29 25 Probably not 15 13 10 11 18 11 14 Definitely not 27 25 13 23 18 20 22 DK/NA 8 7 8 7 4 7 7 11. If Michael Bloomberg is elected to a third term, considering the collapse of the economy and the threat it poses to the city budget, what comes closer to your point of view - Michael Bloomberg will meet these challenges and have a successful 3rd term OR These challenges will overwhelm Michael Bloomberg and damage his record? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Will meet challenges 64% 72% 62% 66% 74% 57% 60% Damage his record 22 20 23 19 15 25 22 DK/NA 15 8 14 15 11 18 19 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Will meet challenges 61% 60% 71% 60% 70% 62% 65% Damage his record 20 22 16 28 20 24 19 DK/NA 19 17 13 12 10 13 16
