August 26, 2009 - Bloomberg Hits 50% With 15-Point Lead In Mayoral Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Mayor's Spending Is Overkill, Ads Are Annoying, Voters Say Word format New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg leads Comptroller William Thompson, his likely Democratic challenger, 50 - 35 percent among New York City voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to a 47 - 37 percent lead July 28. Mayor Bloomberg leads 76 - 13 percent among Republicans and 54 - 28 percent among independent voters, while Democrats split 44 - 44 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. White voters back Bloomberg 61 - 25 percent, while black voters back Thompson 48 - 39 percent. Hispanic voters back the Mayor 50 - 36 percent. Bloomberg tops Queens City Council member Tony Avella 55 - 28 percent. Thompson tops Avella in a Democratic primary 45 - 10 percent, virtually unchanged from July 28. Of the 78 percent of voters who have seen the Mayor's TV commercials for his reelection campaign, 47 percent say they are "annoying" and 41 percent say they are "informative." Republicans say 52 - 38 percent the commercials are informative. Democrats say 48 - 41 percent and independent voters say 50 - 41 percent that they're annoying. Only 15 percent of those who have seen the ads say they make them "more likely" to vote for Bloomberg, while 18 percent say "less likely" and 64 percent, including 66 percent of independent voters, say the ads won't make a difference. "Mayor Mike might be wasting his money on that zillion-dollar TV buy. Most people say the commercials haven't changed their vote. And more of them think the stuff is annoying than informative. The Bloomberg PR blitz is overkill, New Yorkers say 59 - 31 percent," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Even so, Mayor Bloomberg has hit 50 percent with a 15-point lead over Comptroller William Thompson. Council member Tony Avella? He's not in it," Carroll added. New York City voters approve 66 -28 percent of the job Bloomberg is doing, compared to 63 - 29 percent July 28, and give him a 65 - 31 percent favorability. Voters approve 52 - 10 percent, with 38 percent undecided, of the way Thompson is handling his job as Comptroller and give him a 38 - 10 percent favorability. But 51 percent don't know enough about him to form an opinion. For Avella, 81 percent don't know enough about him to form an opinion. New York City voters believe 55 - 40 percent the claim by Bloomberg in an upcoming book that he never believed he could be elected President. The man who was elected, President Barack Obama, wins a 76 - 19 percent approval. Comptroller, Public Advocate Races The Comptroller's role in New York City government is "very important" or "somewhat important," 92 percent of voters say. The Public Advocate's role in New York City government is "very important" or "somewhat important," 79 percent of voters say. The Democratic primary race for New York City Comptroller is dominated by "undecided" at 45 percent, followed by three City Council members lumped together with 17 percent for John Liu, and 16 percent each for David Yassky and Melinda Katz. Council member David Weprin has 5 percent. Former Public Advocate Mark Green leads the Democratic primary pack for his old position with 38 percent, followed by City Council member Bill de Blasio at 14 percent and Norman Siegel and Council member Eric Gioia at 8 percent each. With a 51 - 17 percent favorability, Green is the only candidate in the Comptroller or Public Advocate field with any name recognition. For each of the other candidates, 69 to 83 percent of New York City voters say they don't know enough about them to form an opinion. "New Yorkers think City Comptroller and Public Advocate are important jobs. But they don't know much about any of the candidates except Green," Carroll said. From August 18 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,290 New York City registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. The survey includes 766 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201. 1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2009 Democratic primary for Mayor were being held today and the candidates were Tony Avella and William Thompson, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMS Avella 10% Thompson 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 DK/NA 38 TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2009 Democratic primary for Mayor were being held today and the candidates were Tony Avella and William Thompson, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMS....... Aug 26 Jul 28 Jun 16 2009 2009 2009 Avella 10 11 8 Thompson 45 44 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 5 DK/NA 38 39 46 2. (If registered Democrat) If the 2009 Democratic primary for Public Advocate were being held today and the candidates were Mark Green, Norman Siegal, Bill de Blasio, and Eric Gioia, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMS Green 38% Siegal 8 de Blasio 14 Gioia 8 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 DK/NA 30 TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2009 Democratic primary for Public Advocate were being held today and the candidates were Mark Green, Norman Siegal, Bill de Blasio and Eric Gioia, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMS....... Aug 26 Jul 28 Jun 17 2009 2009 2009 Green 38 37 35 Siegal 8 13 14 de Blasio 14 10 10 Gioia 8 7 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 DK/NA 30 30 34 3. (If registered Democrat) Is your opinion of - Mark Green favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? REGISTERED DEMS Favorable 51% Unfavorable 17 Hvn't hrd enough 31 REFUSED 1 TREND: (If registered Democrat) Is your opinion of - Mark Green favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? REGISTERED DEMS Aug 26 Jul 28 2009 2009 Favorable 51 48 Unfavorable 17 19 Hvn't hrd enough 31 31 REFUSED 1 2 4. (If registered Democrat) Is your opinion of - Norman Siegal favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? REGISTERED DEMS Favorable 19% Unfavorable 6 Hvn't hrd enough 73 REFUSED 2 TREND: (If registered Democrat) Is your opinion of - Norman Siegal favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? REGISTERED DEMS Aug 26 Jul 28 2009 2009 Favorable 19 27 Unfavorable 6 9 Hvn't hrd enough 73 63 REFUSED 2 1 5. (If registered Democrat) Is your opinion of - Bill de Blasio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? REGISTERED DEMS Favorable 20% Unfavorable 5 Hvn't hrd enough 74 REFUSED 1 TREND: (If registered Democrat) Is your opinion of - Bill de Blasio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? REGISTERED DEMS Aug 26 Jul 28 2009 2009 Favorable 20 17 Unfavorable 5 6 Hvn't hrd enough 74 76 REFUSED 1 1 6. (If registered Democrat) Is your opinion of - Eric Gioia favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? REGISTERED DEMS Favorable 16% Unfavorable 4 Hvn't hrd enough 79 REFUSED 1 TREND: (If registered Democrat) Is your opinion of - Eric Gioia favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? REGISTERED DEMS Aug 26 Jul 28 2009 2009 Favorable 16 12 Unfavorable 4 3 Hvn't hrd enough 79 84 REFUSED 1 1 7. (If registered Democrat) If the 2009 Democratic primary for Comptroller were being held today and the candidates were Melinda Katz, David Weprin, John Liu, and David Yassky, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMS Katz 16% Weprin 5 Liu 17 Yassky 16 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 DK/NA 45 TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2009 Democratic primary for Comptroller were being held today and the candidates were Melinda Katz, David Weprin, John Liu and David Yassky, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMS....... Aug 26 Jul 28 Jun 17 2009 2009 2009 Katz 16 10 13 Weprin 5 5 5 Liu 17 17 19 Yassky 16 8 10 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 4 3 DK/NA 45 55 50 8. (If registered Democrat) Is your opinion of - Melinda Katz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? REGISTERED DEMS Favorable 21% Unfavorable 5 Hvn't hrd enough 74 REFUSED 1 TREND: (If registered Democrat) Is your opinion of - Melinda Katz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? REGISTERED DEMS Aug 26 Jul 28 2009 2009 Favorable 21 14 Unfavorable 5 4 Hvn't hrd enough 74 81 REFUSED 1 1 9. (If registered Democrat) Is your opinion of - David Weprin favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? REGISTERED DEMS Favorable 11% Unfavorable 5 Hvn't hrd enough 83 REFUSED 1 TREND: (If registered Democrat) Is your opinion of - David Weprin favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? REGISTERED DEMS Aug 26 Jul 28 2009 2009 Favorable 11 10 Unfavorable 5 4 Hvn't hrd enough 83 85 REFUSED 1 1 10. (If registered Democrat) Is your opinion of - John Liu favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? REGISTERED DEMS Favorable 25% Unfavorable 5 Hvn't hrd enough 69 REFUSED 1 TREND: (If registered Democrat) Is your opinion of - John Liu favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? REGISTERED DEMS Aug 26 Jul 28 2009 2009 Favorable 25 25 Unfavorable 5 4 Hvn't hrd enough 69 70 REFUSED 1 1 11. (If registered Democrat) Is your opinion of - David Yassky favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? REGISTERED DEMS Favorable 22% Unfavorable 5 Hvn't hrd enough 72 REFUSED 1 TREND: (If registered Democrat) Is your opinion of - David Yassky favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? REGISTERED DEMS Aug 26 Jul 28 2009 2009 Favorable 22 12 Unfavorable 5 5 Hvn't hrd enough 72 82 REFUSED 1 1 12. If the 2009 election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were William Thompson the Democrat and Michael Bloomberg running as both a Republican and an Independent, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Thompson 35% 13% 44% 28% 25% 48% 36% Bloomberg 50 76 44 54 61 39 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 2 1 3 DK/NA 12 6 11 16 11 11 12 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Thompson 46% 37% 33% 29% 27% 35% 35% Bloomberg 43 50 51 53 57 51 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 - 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 1 2 2 DK/NA 9 10 14 15 14 11 13 TREND: If the 2009 election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were William Thompson the Democrat and Michael Bloomberg running as both a Republican and an Independent, for whom would you vote? (*Michael Bloomberg the Independent) Aug 26 Jul 28 Jun 16 Mar 24 Feb 24 Jan 27 Nov 25 2009 2009 2009* 2009* 2009* 2009* 2008* Thompson 35 37 32 35 33 34 34 Bloomberg 50 47 54 49 50 50 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 DK/NA 12 14 12 14 13 13 14 13. If the 2009 election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Tony Avella the Democrat and Michael Bloomberg running as both a Republican and an Independent, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Avella 28% 10% 37% 20% 20% 35% 32% Bloomberg 55 78 50 60 66 46 57 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 - 1 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 1 3 2 DK/NA 13 9 10 17 12 15 9 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Avella 42% 30% 24% 22% 21% 27% 29% Bloomberg 49 54 56 59 60 57 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 3 3 2 3 1 DK/NA 6 13 17 15 15 11 15 TREND: If the 2009 election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Tony Avella the Democrat and Michael Bloomberg running as both a Republican and an Independent, for whom would you vote?(*Michael Bloomberg the Independent) Aug 26 Jul 28 Jun 16 2009 2009 2009* Avella 28 28 27 Bloomberg 55 51 57 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 2 DK/NA 13 17 12 14. Is your opinion of - Tony Avella favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Favorable 14% 7% 18% 11% 13% 15% 17% Unfavorable 4 7 4 4 6 3 3 Hvn't hrd enough 81 84 77 84 80 80 78 REFUSED 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Favorable 19% 12% 10% 18% 11% 16% 12% Unfavorable 3 4 5 5 2 6 3 Hvn't hrd enough 77 83 84 75 87 77 83 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 TREND: Is your opinion of - Tony Avella favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Aug 26 Jul 28 Jun 16 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 14 16 9 Unfavorable 4 6 4 Hvn't hrd enough 81 78 87 REFUSED 1 1 1 15. Is your opinion of - William Thompson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Favorable 38% 18% 48% 32% 34% 51% 35% Unfavorable 10 19 8 10 13 4 10 Hvn't hrd enough 51 60 43 57 51 43 54 REFUSED 1 3 1 1 1 2 1 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Favorable 48% 39% 36% 33% 34% 42% 34% Unfavorable 5 13 10 9 9 13 7 Hvn't hrd enough 45 47 53 56 57 43 57 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 TREND: Is your opinion of - William Thompson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Aug 26 Jul 28 Jun 16 Mar 24 Feb 24 Jan 27 Nov 25 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 Favorable 38 38 29 25 22 25 25 Unfavorable 10 9 6 5 5 5 4 Hvn't hrd enough 51 52 63 68 71 69 70 REFUSED 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 16. Is your opinion of - Michael Bloomberg favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Favorable 65% 76% 63% 66% 71% 61% 65% Unfavorable 31 22 33 29 25 34 31 Hvn't hrd enough 2 - 2 2 1 3 2 REFUSED 3 2 3 3 3 1 2 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Favorable 59% 62% 67% 68% 68% 65% 64% Unfavorable 35 34 28 27 28 31 31 Hvn't hrd enough 2 1 3 3 - 2 2 REFUSED 4 3 3 2 4 3 3 TREND: Is your opinion of - Michael Bloomberg favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Aug 26 Jul 28 Jun 16 Mar 24 Feb 24 Jan 27 Nov 25 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 Favorable 65 59 64 62 62 66 61 Unfavorable 31 34 30 31 32 28 31 Hvn't hrd enough 2 3 3 3 2 3 4 REFUSED 3 4 3 4 4 3 3 17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Michael Bloomberg is handling his job as Mayor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Approve 66% 76% 64% 69% 74% 62% 67% Disapprove 28 20 31 27 22 31 29 DK/NA 5 4 5 5 4 7 4 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Approve 62% 62% 71% 70% 65% 67% 66% Disapprove 34 30 23 27 31 29 28 DK/NA 5 8 6 3 4 5 6 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Michael Bloomberg is handling his job as Mayor? (*High also 75% Oct 2008, Mar 2008, Jan 2007 & Nov 2005) APPROVE....... DIS.. High Low High Aug 26 Jul 28 Jun 16 Mar 24 Oct 21 Jul 2 Jul 2 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008* 2003 2003 Approve 66 63 66 64 75 31 31 Disapprove 28 29 27 28 20 60 60 DK/NA 5 8 7 8 6 8 8 18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way William Thompson is handling his job as City Comptroller? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Approve 52% 43% 60% 48% 49% 62% 49% Disapprove 10 16 8 9 13 5 9 DK/NA 38 40 31 43 38 32 41 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Approve 64% 51% 51% 49% 49% 58% 48% Disapprove 5 9 9 15 11 12 8 DK/NA 31 40 41 36 41 31 44 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way William Thompson is handling his job as City Comptroller? (*High also 53% Oct 2008) APPROVE....... DIS.. High Low High Aug 26 Jul 28 Jun 16 Mar 24 Jul 28 Feb 26 Jul 2 2009 2009* 2009 2009 2009 2003 2003 Approve 52 53 50 41 53 35 38 Disapprove 10 10 10 12 10 13 20 DK/NA 38 37 40 47 37 52 42 19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Approve 76% 33% 93% 66% 62% 95% 83% Disapprove 19 63 5 26 32 2 12 DK/NA 5 5 3 8 6 3 5 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Approve 84% 75% 78% 75% 60% 71% 79% Disapprove 13 21 18 17 35 23 16 DK/NA 4 4 5 7 5 5 5 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Aug 26 Jul 28 Jun 16 Feb 25 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 76 74 79 78 Disapprove 19 20 16 13 DK/NA 5 6 6 9 20. How important do you think the Public Advocate's role is in New York City government - very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Very important 45% 32% 50% 41% 31% 56% 64% Smwht important 34 33 36 34 39 34 24 Not too important 9 13 7 10 15 3 3 Not important at all 6 13 3 10 9 2 4 DK/NA 5 9 4 5 6 5 5 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Very important 56% 46% 38% 47% 37% 41% 49% Smwht important 30 33 33 38 42 35 34 Not too important 8 7 14 6 8 11 7 Not important at all 2 8 8 5 11 10 3 DK/NA 4 6 7 4 3 3 7 21. How important do you think the Comptroller's role is in New York City government - very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Very important 63% 58% 68% 58% 60% 65% 72% Smwht important 29 27 26 36 31 29 19 Not too important 3 4 3 2 3 1 5 Not important at all 1 4 1 - 1 1 1 DK/NA 4 7 3 4 5 4 4 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Very important 68% 63% 60% 65% 59% 64% 63% Smwht important 27 28 33 28 28 27 31 Not too important 3 4 2 3 2 5 1 Not important at all - 1 1 - 4 2 1 DK/NA 2 4 3 5 6 3 5 22. Have you seen any of Michael Bloomberg's television advertisements for this year's election for mayor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Yes 78% 71% 80% 78% 77% 81% 81% No 21 29 19 21 22 18 17 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 1 2 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Yes 83% 76% 78% 80% 76% 78% 78% No 17 23 21 18 23 20 21 DK/NA - 1 1 2 1 1 1 TREND: Have you seen any of Michael Bloomberg's television advertisements for this year's election for mayor? Aug 26 Jul 19 2009 2005 Yes 78 57 No 21 41 DK/NA 1 2 23. (If yes q22) Do they make you more likely to vote for Michael Bloomberg, less likely to vote for Michael Bloomberg, or don't they make a difference? YES Q22....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp More likely 15% 15% 16% 13% 14% 19% 18% Less likely 18 10 20 19 16 17 19 No difference 64 73 62 66 70 61 59 DK/NA 3 1 2 2 1 4 4 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom More likely 16% 16% 11% 18% 8% 14% 16% Less likely 16 18 20 17 19 20 17 No difference 63 63 68 62 68 65 64 DK/NA 5 3 1 2 4 1 4 TREND: (If yes) Do they make you more likely to vote for Michael Bloomberg, less likely to vote for Michael Bloomberg, or don't they make a difference? Aug 26 Jul 19 2009 2005 More likely 15 12 Less likely 18 16 No difference 64 70 DK/NA 3 2 24. (If yes q22) From what you have seen of Michael Bloomberg's television ads, are they more informative or more annoying? YES Q22....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Informative 41% 52% 41% 41% 40% 44% 51% Annoying 47 38 48 50 50 44 37 DK/NA 11 11 11 10 10 12 12 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Informative 37% 42% 38% 45% 47% 40% 43% Annoying 53 46 52 42 46 52 44 DK/NA 11 13 9 13 7 9 14 25. Some people say that Mayor Bloomberg's campaign spending is a case of overkill. Do you agree or disagree? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Agree 59% 46% 62% 58% 60% 56% 54% Disagree 31 43 30 32 32 33 37 DK/NA 10 11 8 10 8 11 9 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Agree 61% 55% 60% 63% 52% 60% 57% Disagree 29 32 32 30 36 33 30 DK/NA 10 13 8 8 12 7 12 TREND: Some people say that Mayor Bloomberg's campaign spending is a case of overkill. Do you agree or disagree? Aug 26 Jul 28 Jun 16 2009 2009 2009 Agree 59 61 56 Disagree 31 30 36 DK/NA 10 9 9 34. In a new book, Mayor Bloomberg says that he has never believed that he could be elected president. Do you believe him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Yes 55% 51% 54% 56% 60% 49% 42% No 40 43 41 38 34 46 55 DK/NA 5 6 5 5 6 5 4 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Yes 57% 51% 61% 50% 61% 56% 54% No 42 42 33 46 33 39 41 DK/NA 2 7 6 4 6 5 5
