October 26, 2009 - Bloomberg Blowout As Mayor Runs Up 18-Point Lead, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; 10 Percent Undecided On Eve Of Last Debate Word format New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg leads Comptroller William Thompson 53 - 35 percent, with 10 percent undecided, among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Conservative Party candidate Stephen Christopher has 3 percent. Mayor Bloomberg leads 81 - 10 percent among Republicans and 61 - 25 percent among independent voters, while Democrats split with 46 percent for Bloomberg and 44 percent for Thompson, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Christopher gets 5 percent of Republicans and 5 percent of independent voters, with 0 percent of Democrats. White voters back Bloomberg 59 - 30 percent, while black voters support Thompson 57 - 24 percent. Hispanic voters back the Mayor 49 - 35 percent. Black voters have the highest undecided percentage, 18 percent. The Mayor leads in every borough, from 50 - 33 percent in The Bronx to 59 - 27 percent in Staten Island. He leads 53 - 35 percent among men and 52 - 34 percent among women. Only 16 percent of Thompson supporters and 18 percent of Bloomberg backers say they might change their mind. "It's been shaping up all along, and now the new numbers say it looks like a Bloomberg blow-out," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "It's not only the money. Sure, Mayor Michael Bloomberg has spent a zillion dollars on this campaign - but he seems to have spent it wisely. "And the Thompson campaign has stuttered. They tapped into real distaste for scrapping term limits, but that was pretty much their only issue and it doesn't seem to have been nearly enough," Carroll added. "Historically, blowouts have a self-correcting tendency. That happened four years ago, when the polls showed a Bloomberg landslide and they were right - but the Election Day landslide wasn't as overwhelming as the poll numbers had measured. "Will voters see those big Bloomberg numbers and decide they don't need to vote, or will the Mayor's well-oiled machine get them to the polls to run up the score?" By a 63 - 29 percent margin, voters have a favorable opinion of Bloomberg. Thompson has a 39 - 23 percent favorability, with 33 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion. For Christopher, 89 percent don't know enough about him to form an opinion. From October 23 - 25, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,088 New York City likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The sample was drawn from registered voter lists based on people who have voted in recent elections. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. If the 2009 election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Michael Bloomberg running as both a Republican and an Independent, William Thompson the Democrat and Stephen Christopher the Conservative party candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Bloomberg, Thompson or Christopher? (This table includes Leaners) LIKELY VOTERS................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Thompson 35% 10% 44% 25% 30% 57% 35% Bloomberg 53 81 46 61 59 24 49 Christopher 3 5 - 5 3 - 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 10 4 10 9 8 18 13 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Thompson 33% 35% 41% 33% 27% 35% 34% Bloomberg 50 52 51 54 59 53 52 Christopher 4 2 1 2 7 4 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 14 11 7 11 6 7 12 1a. (If candidate choice given) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS................................. CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN Q1..................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Made up 82% 85% 81% 79% 84% 78% 66% Might change 17 12 18 20 15 20 32 DK/NA 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 CAND CHOICE Q1 Thom Bloom Made up 83% 81% Might change 16 18 DK/NA 1 1 2. Is your opinion of - William Thompson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Favorable 39% 16% 47% 32% 37% 56% 31% Unfavorable 23 40 17 29 27 8 15 Hvn't hrd enough 33 39 30 34 31 32 49 REFUSED 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Favorable 35% 35% 47% 39% 30% 41% 37% Unfavorable 16 23 20 27 29 25 21 Hvn't hrd enough 44 37 26 28 38 30 36 REFUSED 5 5 8 5 2 5 6 3. Is your opinion of - Michael Bloomberg favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Favorable 63% 78% 59% 68% 66% 48% 62% Unfavorable 29 18 31 26 27 42 21 Hvn't hrd enough 3 1 3 2 1 5 10 REFUSED 6 3 6 3 6 5 7 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Favorable 63% 61% 62% 63% 66% 59% 65% Unfavorable 22 31 31 29 27 33 26 Hvn't hrd enough 8 3 2 1 1 2 3 REFUSED 7 5 5 7 5 6 6 4. Is your opinion of - Stephen Christopher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Favorable 2% 3% 2% 1% 3% 2% 1% Unfavorable 8 4 9 5 7 7 9 Hvn't hrd enough 89 93 88 92 88 90 86 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 2 1 4 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Favorable 5% 1% 1% 2% 4% 3% 2% Unfavorable 6 8 8 8 5 9 6 Hvn't hrd enough 88 89 90 87 89 86 91 REFUSED 1 2 1 3 1 2 1
