November 2, 2009 - Bloomberg Leads Thompson By 12 Points, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds Word format One day before the New York City Mayoral election, incumbent Michael Bloomberg leads Comptroller William Thompson 50 - 38 percent, with 10 percent undecided, among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Conservative Party candidate Stephen Christopher has 1 percent. This compares to a 53 - 35 percent Mayor Bloomberg lead in an October 26 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. In this latest survey, Bloomberg leads 82 - 10 percent among Republicans and 61 - 21 percent among independent voters, while Thompson leads 48 - 43 percent among Democrats. White voters back Bloomberg 66 - 24 percent, while black voters support Thompson 62 - 23 percent. Hispanic voters back the Mayor 51 - 43 percent. Fifteen percent of black voters are undecided, compared to 6 percent of white voters and 5 percent of Hispanics. Thompson leads 45 - 41 percent in The Bronx and 45 - 42 percent in Brooklyn, while Bloomberg leads 60 - 34 percent in Manhattan, 53 - 35 percent in Queens and 57 - 20 percent in Staten Island. Only 13 percent of Thompson or Bloomberg backers say they might change their mind. "Mayor Michael Bloomberg hangs on to his double-digit lead the day before the election," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. From October 29 - November 1, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,360 New York City likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. The sample was drawn from registered voter lists based on people who have voted in recent elections. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. If the 2009 election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were William Thompson the Democrat, Michael Bloomberg running as both a Republican and an Independent and Stephen Christopher the Conservative party candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Thompson, Bloomberg or Christopher? (If Already Voted q1) Did you vote for Thompson, Bloomberg or Christopher? This table includes "Leaners". LIKELY VOTERS................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Thompson 38% 10% 48% 21% 24% 62% 43% Bloomberg 50 82 43 61 66 23 51 Christopher 1 3 - 3 3 - 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 10 5 8 15 6 15 5 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Thompson 45% 45% 34% 35% 20% 37% 39% Bloomberg 41 42 60 53 57 50 50 Christopher 2 1 1 1 4 2 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 12 12 5 10 18 11 10 1a. (If candidate choice given q1, excludes already voted) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS................................. CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN Q1..................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Made up 86% 91% 84% 90% 88% 83% 89% Might change 13 9 15 9 11 16 9 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 1 2 CAND CHOICE Q1 Thom Bloom Made up 86% 86% Might change 13 13 DK/NA 1 1 2. Is your opinion of - William Thompson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Favorable 45% 15% 54% 36% 35% 67% 45% Unfavorable 21 46 14 29 32 6 13 Hvn't hrd enough 27 31 26 27 27 21 34 REFUSED 7 8 6 8 7 6 7 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Favorable 49% 46% 50% 42% 33% 46% 44% Unfavorable 16 16 22 24 32 22 19 Hvn't hrd enough 30 31 21 27 30 23 30 REFUSED 5 8 7 8 5 8 6 3. Is your opinion of - Michael Bloomberg favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Favorable 63% 85% 58% 73% 74% 45% 65% Unfavorable 28 13 33 20 20 41 30 Hvn't hrd enough 3 1 3 1 1 4 3 REFUSED 6 1 6 6 5 10 2 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Favorable 58% 56% 70% 65% 75% 63% 63% Unfavorable 34 33 23 27 18 30 27 Hvn't hrd enough 4 4 2 2 2 1 4 REFUSED 4 8 5 7 5 6 6 4. Is your opinion of - Stephen Christopher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Favorable 3% 7% 2% 2% 3% 1% 6% Unfavorable 7 4 7 9 8 7 7 Hvn't hrd enough 88 87 89 86 88 88 86 REFUSED 2 2 2 3 2 3 1 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Favorable 3% 2% 1% 4% 6% 4% 2% Unfavorable 9 7 8 4 9 8 6 Hvn't hrd enough 87 88 88 88 84 85 89 REFUSED 1 3 2 3 1 3 2
