November 21, 2012 - Quinn Has Big Early Lead In New York City Mayoral Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Keep Mayor's Millions Out Of Race, More Voters Say Word format Watch Video: Polling Institute Director Mickey Carroll discusses poll results Clip Information and Download: FLV File - For Website (1920x1080 / 61.5MB) Original .MP4 File - For Broadcast (1920x1080 / 416.7MB) With a 65 percent approval rating, higher than Mayor Michael Bloomberg, City Council Speaker Christine Quinn goes into the 2013 New York City mayoral election year with a commanding 32 percent of the Democratic Primary vote, more than the combined take of the other four known candidates, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Should Metropolitan Transportation Authority Chair & CEO Joseph Lhota run for mayor as a Republican, he loses to an unnamed Democratic candidate 60 - 9 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. If former Bronx Borough President Adolfo Carrion runs on the Republican line, he also loses 62 - 11 percent. Chasing Speaker Quinn in a Democratic primary are: Former City Comptroller William Thompson with 10 percent; Public Advocate Bill de Blasio with 9 percent; City Comptroller John Liu with 5 percent; Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer with 4 percent. The survey was conducted before Stringer dropped out of the mayoral race. "Okay, the race for the White House is over and it's time to look at the New York City mayoral race, where the possibly decisive Democratic primary could be as early as June. The morning line? City Council Speaker Christine Quinn leaves the other Democratic contenders in the dust," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Politics buffs are talking about MTA Chair Joseph Lhota and former Bronx Borough President Adolfo Carrion as possible Republican contenders for the West Wing at City Hall, but the public hasn't caught up with the pundits. Lhota and Carrion lose big to a generic Democrat." New York City voters say 48 - 39 percent that Mayor Michael Bloomberg should not use his personal wealth to support one of the candidates for mayor. Even Republicans say 51 - 39 percent that Bloomberg should keep his money out of the race. "Should Mayor Michael Bloomberg spend some of his zillions to try to elect the next mayor? More New Yorkers say no," Carroll said. Police Commissioner Ray Kelly continues to have the highest approval rating of any city- wide official, 68 - 23 percent. His approval is 79 - 15 percent among white voters, 56 - 36 percent among black voters and 67 - 25 percent among Hispanic voters. Approval ratings for other officials are: 65 - 18 percent for Quinn; 49 - 14 percent for de Blasio; 48 - 22 percent for Liu; 42 - 33 percent for Schools Chancellor Dennis Walcott; Negative 38 - 45 percent for Lhota. New York City voters approve 62 - 31 percent of the way New York City police are doing their job, but disapprove 53 - 42 percent of the Police Department's stop-and-frisk tactic. White voters approve of stop-and-frisk 55 - 39 percent, but disapproval is 70 - 28 percent among black voters and 64 - 33 percent among Hispanic voters. Reducing stop-and-frisk will not lead to an increase in gun violence, voters say 52 - 37 percent. White voters are divided, as 47 percent say less stop-and-frisk would mean more crime and 43 percent say it won't. Black voters say 61 - 27 percent and Hispanic voters say 59 - 32 percent that crime would not increase. "Stop-and-frisk continues to divide the city. White voters like it; black voters don't. But everyone likes their cops, especially Top Cop Ray Kelly," Carroll said. From November 14 - 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,165 New York City voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. (If Registered Democrat) If the 2013 Democratic primary for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Scott Stringer, John Liu, Christine Quinn, William Thompson, and Bill de Blasio, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.................. Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Stringer 4% 3% 5% 7% 2% 2% Liu 5 5 5 4 7 6 Quinn 32 33 32 40 28 32 Thompson 10 14 7 6 20 7 de Blasio 9 10 8 8 9 6 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 4 1 1 1 3 DK/NA 37 30 41 32 34 43 TREND: (If Registered Democrat) If the 2013 Democratic primary for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were: Scott Stringer, John Liu, Christine Quinn, William Thompson, and Bill de Blasio, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.. Nov 21 Aug 15 May 10 2012 2012 2012 Stringer 4 4 4 Liu 5 9 7 Quinn 32 29 26 Thompson 10 10 13 Allon na 1 2 de Blasio 9 9 10 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 DK/NA 37 34 34 2. If MTA head Joseph Lhota runs for mayor as a Republican, would you be more likely to vote for Lhota or for the Democratic candidate? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Lhota 9% 43% 2% 11% 14% 5% 18% 3% 4% Democrat 60 6 82 39 55 64 51 76 64 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 7 15 3 12 8 7 8 5 9 DK/NA 23 36 12 38 24 23 24 16 22 Union Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl HsHlds Lhota 4% 9% 9% 11% 19% 6% Democrat 61 57 63 61 55 63 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 9 8 8 6 3 8 DK/NA 26 26 20 23 23 24 3. If former Bronx Borough President Adolfo Carrion runs for mayor as a Republican, would you be more likely to vote for Carrion or for the Democratic candidate? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Carrion 11% 38% 5% 12% 14% 9% 14% 6% 12% Democrat 62 18 83 40 58 66 56 74 62 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 7 11 2 14 8 6 7 4 10 DK/NA 20 32 10 34 20 20 23 16 15 Union Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl HsHlds Carrion 19% 10% 7% 9% 15% 8% Democrat 61 60 67 63 54 65 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 5 7 9 7 6 7 DK/NA 15 23 17 21 25 21 5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ray Kelly is handling his job as Police Commissioner? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 68% 89% 66% 69% 71% 65% 79% 56% 67% Disapprove 23 9 24 23 23 23 15 36 25 DK/NA 9 2 10 8 5 12 6 8 9 Union Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl HsHlds Approve 60% 66% 71% 70% 77% 67% Disapprove 32 26 21 19 14 25 DK/NA 8 8 8 11 10 8 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ray Kelly is handling his job as Police Commissioner? APPROVE....... High Low Nov 21 Aug 16 Jun 14 May 10 Mar 13 May 12 Jan 16 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 2007 Approve 68 64 61 66 64 71 52 Disapprove 23 26 26 23 25 17 34 DK/NA 9 10 13 10 11 13 14 6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Dennis Walcott is handling his job as New York City Schools Chancellor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 42% 39% 46% 38% 44% 40% 37% 55% 36% Disapprove 33 32 33 34 33 33 32 29 41 DK/NA 25 29 21 29 23 26 30 17 23 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS............ Yes No 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Approve 41% 44% 27% 50% 47% 36% Disapprove 33 34 48 28 30 34 DK/NA 27 22 26 22 23 30 Union Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl HsHlds Approve 41% 38% 47% 44% 36% 33% Disapprove 43 33 26 32 44 43 DK/NA 16 29 27 24 20 24 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Dennis Walcott is handling his job as New York City Schools Chancellor? APPROVE....... High Low Nov 21 Aug 15 Jun 14 May 10 Mar 14 Mar 14 May 11 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 Approve 42 37 37 39 43 43 31 Disapprove 33 31 35 34 31 31 21 DK/NA 25 31 28 27 26 26 48 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill de Blasio is handling his job as Public Advocate? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 49% 42% 56% 38% 52% 47% 46% 55% 50% Disapprove 14 27 10 18 15 13 14 14 18 DK/NA 37 31 34 44 34 40 40 31 32 Union Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl HsHlds Approve 43% 55% 45% 49% 49% 56% Disapprove 21 12 13 11 21 11 DK/NA 36 33 42 40 30 33 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill de Blasio is handling his job as Public Advocate? APPROVE....... High Low Nov 21 Aug 15 Jun 13 May 10 Mar 13 Nov 21 May 21 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2010 Approve 49 45 39 48 42 49 34 Disapprove 14 16 17 13 17 14 16 DK/NA 37 39 44 39 41 37 50 8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christine Quinn is handling her job as City Council Speaker? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 65% 46% 71% 60% 64% 66% 62% 66% 71% Disapprove 18 34 13 22 22 14 22 17 8 DK/NA 18 20 16 18 14 21 16 17 21 Union Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl HsHlds Approve 69% 61% 67% 65% 62% 65% Disapprove 14 18 20 17 18 18 DK/NA 17 20 14 18 20 16 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christine Quinn is handling her job as City Council Speaker? APPROVE....... High Low Nov 21 Aug 15 Jun 13 May 10 Mar 13 Nov 21 Nov 25 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2008 Approve 65 56 55 57 59 65 40 Disapprove 18 27 24 23 20 18 29 DK/NA 18 17 21 20 21 18 31 9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Liu is handling his job as City Comptroller? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 48% 40% 55% 41% 48% 48% 40% 60% 44% Disapprove 22 34 18 28 26 19 29 16 19 DK/NA 30 26 27 32 25 33 31 24 38 Union Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl HsHlds Approve 49% 47% 42% 54% 48% 54% Disapprove 17 19 29 22 29 19 DK/NA 34 34 29 24 24 27 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Liu is handling his job as City Comptroller? APPROVE....... High Low Nov 21 Aug 15 Jun 13 May 10 Mar 13 May 11 Dec 15 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 Approve 48 43 40 41 40 57 38 Disapprove 22 31 32 32 37 14 35 DK/NA 30 26 28 27 23 30 27 10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joseph Lhota is handling his job as head of the MTA? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 38% 50% 37% 39% 41% 36% 42% 34% 33% Disapprove 45 32 46 46 45 45 38 51 53 DK/NA 17 18 17 15 14 19 20 16 13 Union Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl HsHlds Approve 28% 37% 44% 41% 31% 33% Disapprove 52 46 36 46 55 48 DK/NA 20 17 19 13 14 20 12. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New York City today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Very satisfied 11% 4% 12% 13% 14% 9% 13% 5% 14% Smwht satisfied 52 45 57 45 53 51 48 58 47 Smwht dissatisfied 25 30 21 31 24 26 24 24 29 Very dissatisfied 11 18 10 10 9 12 13 12 10 DK/NA 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS............ Yes No 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Very satisfied 14% 8% 6% 16% 11% 9% Smwht satisfied 54 49 48 54 53 52 Smwht dissatisfied 24 27 31 22 25 25 Very dissatisfied 8 15 14 8 10 13 DK/NA 1 1 1 - 1 1 Union Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl HsHlds Very satisfied 9% 9% 19% 9% 9% 7% Smwht satisfied 56 50 55 51 40 51 Smwht dissatisfied 28 24 18 30 32 30 Very dissatisfied 7 16 6 10 18 11 DK/NA 1 1 1 - 2 - TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New York City today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? VERY+SMWHT... High Low Nov 21 Aug 15 Mar 13 Feb 08 Dec 14 Feb 11 Jul 02 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 1998 2003 Very satisfied 11 8 10 7 7 18 7 Smwht satisfied 52 49 52 50 44 58 23 Smwht dissatisfied 25 28 25 27 30 18 32 Very dissatisfied 11 15 12 15 17 5 38 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13. Do you think Mayor Bloomberg's health initiatives for New York City residents have gone too far, not far enough, or are about right? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Too far 35% 60% 29% 37% 38% 32% 41% 34% 26% Not far enough 19 11 21 18 18 20 12 24 31 About right 38 23 42 38 37 38 38 34 35 DK/NA 8 6 9 8 6 10 9 8 8 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS............ Yes No 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Too far 32% 38% 31% 37% 36% 33% Not far enough 17 22 24 15 22 16 About right 43 31 30 45 35 40 DK/NA 8 9 14 4 7 11 Union Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl HsHlds Too far 33% 39% 26% 35% 48% 35% Not far enough 28 20 15 18 15 21 About right 33 32 50 36 36 36 DK/NA 6 10 9 10 1 8 14. Do you think Mayor Bloomberg should or should not use his personal wealth to support one of the candidates for New York City Mayor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Should use wealth 39% 39% 36% 42% 40% 37% 36% 39% 40% No, should not 48 51 49 46 48 48 50 49 47 DK/NA 13 10 15 12 12 14 14 12 13 Union Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl HsHlds Should use wealth 38% 36% 45% 37% 34% 36% No, should not 48 48 43 51 51 51 DK/NA 14 16 12 12 15 13 15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the New York City police are doing their job? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 62% 87% 58% 67% 65% 59% 76% 47% 50% Disapprove 31 11 33 29 30 31 19 42 42 DK/NA 7 2 10 4 5 9 6 11 8 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS............ Yes No 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Approve 65% 58% 51% 65% 64% 63% Disapprove 27 36 40 30 27 29 DK/NA 9 6 9 4 9 8 Union Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl HsHlds Approve 54% 60% 62% 68% 69% 60% Disapprove 42 32 29 26 21 32 DK/NA 4 9 9 7 10 8 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the New York City police are doing their job? APPROVE....... High Low Nov 21 Aug 16 Jun 14 Mar 13 Feb 09 Feb 7 Apr 20 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2002 2000 Approve 62 57 59 63 62 76 43 Disapprove 31 33 32 31 30 18 48 DK/NA 7 10 9 6 8 6 9 16. As you may know, there is a police practice known as stop and frisk, where police stop and question a person they suspect of wrongdoing and, if necessary, search that person. Do you approve or disapprove of this police practice? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 42% 83% 33% 52% 45% 40% 55% 28% 33% Disapprove 53 16 62 46 52 54 39 70 64 DK/NA 5 2 5 3 3 6 6 2 3 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS............ Yes No 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Approve 41% 44% 36% 39% 44% 49% Disapprove 53 53 60 57 50 46 DK/NA 6 3 4 3 6 5 Union Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl HsHlds Approve 43% 40% 36% 46% 58% 39% Disapprove 54 55 58 49 39 57 DK/NA 3 5 6 5 3 4 TREND: As you may know, there is a police practice known as stop and frisk, where police stop and question a person they suspect of wrongdoing and, if necessary, search that person. Do you approve or disapprove of this police practice? Nov 21 Aug 16 Jun 14 Mar 13 2012 2012 2012 2012 Approve 42 45 43 46 Disapprove 53 50 51 49 DK/NA 5 5 6 5 17. Do you think that if the police reduced the number of stop and frisks there would be an increase in gun violence or don't you think that would happen? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Yes 37% 70% 29% 46% 42% 33% 47% 27% 32% No, wouldn't happen 52 25 60 43 47 56 43 61 59 DK/NA 11 5 10 11 11 11 10 11 9 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS............ Yes No 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Yes 37% 38% 33% 34% 40% 40% No, wouldn't happen 54 48 57 57 48 47 DK/NA 9 14 10 9 12 13 Union Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl HsHlds Yes 33% 34% 34% 43% 50% 34% No, wouldn't happen 54 54 56 45 46 56 DK/NA 12 11 10 12 4 11 TREND: Do you think that if the police reduced the number of stop and frisks there would be an increase in gun violence or don't you think that would happen? (*Aug 16 ...increase in gun violence or not") Nov 21 Aug 16 2012 2012* Yes 37 41 No 52 50 DK/NA 11 9 18. Which comes closer to your view; A)The police should take all steps necessary to prevent crime in New York City even if it means your basic civil liberties would be violated, or B)The police should take steps to prevent crime but not if those would violate your basic civil liberties? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp A)Take all steps 13% 30% 9% 19% 15% 12% 21% 7% 9% B)Shldn't violate 84 66 89 78 83 84 76 89 91 civil liberties DK/NA 3 4 3 3 2 4 3 4 1 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS............ Yes No 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ A)Take all steps 12% 15% 11% 13% 14% 16% B)Shldn't violate 86 81 88 87 82 77 civil liberties DK/NA 2 4 1 - 4 7 Union Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl HsHlds A)Take all steps 13% 15% 11% 13% 22% 12% B)Shldn't violate 86 82 86 84 76 86 civil liberties DK/NA 2 4 3 4 2 3 TREND: Which comes closer to your view; A)The police should take all steps necessary to prevent crime in New York City even if it means your basic civil liberties would be violated, or B)The police should take steps to prevent crime but not if those would violate your basic civil liberties? Nov 21 Aug 16 2012 2012 A)Take all steps 13 16 B)Shldn't violate 84 78 civil liberties DK/NA 3 6 Demographic Summary
