January 16, 2013 - Lhota Leads Unknowns In New York City GOP Primary, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; But He Loses Mayoral Race 3-1 To Any Democrat Word format Former MTA Chair & CEO Joseph Lhota leads a possible New York City Republican primary for mayor, with 23 percent of the vote, more than the other largely unknown contenders combined, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. The biggest share, however, goes to undecided, with 53 percent. Lhota is followed by businessman John Catsimatidis with 9 percent, newspaper publisher Tom Allon with 5 percent, former Bronx Borough President Adolfo Carrion with 3 percent and Doe Fund founder George McDonald with 2 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University poll finds. With 35 percent, City Council Speaker Christine Quinn has a big lead in a Democratic primary for mayor. Public Advocate Bill de Blasio has 11 percent, with 10 percent for former City Comptroller William Thompson and 9 percent for Comptroller John Liu. New York City voters disapprove 46 - 36 percent of the job Lhota did at the MTA and 69 percent of all voters don't know enough about him to decide whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion. The range of voters who "don't know enough" about the other Republicans is from 83 percent to 92 percent. "Who are those guys? Almost no one knows the Republicans who say they want to be mayor. Even Joe Lhota, the front-runner in a primary match-up and the former head of the MTA, is far from a house-hold name," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Council Speaker Christine Quinn still dominates the Democratic field. There is almost no gender gap for any candidate. For example, Quinn gets 36 percent of women and 34 percent of men, while Liu gets 10 percent of men and 9 percent of women." By 3-1 margins or more, New York City voters back any of the three leading Democrats over Lhota: Quinn leads 62 - 17 percent; Thompson is up 55 - 19 percent; de Blasio is on top 57 - 17 percent. In a May 2, 2001, Quinnipiac University poll, then-Republican Michael B1oomberg trailed Democratic contenders by margins of 52 - 24 percent or more. "The top three Democrats all thump Lhota. We limit the matchups to candidates who show some strength in their primaries," Carroll said. "New York City is a very blue city. Any Republican who wants to follow in the footsteps of Mayors Rudolph Giuliani or Michael Bloomberg will need to win lots of Democratic and independent voters." Besides deficits of 68 to 76 percentage points among Democrats, Lhota trails among independent voters, 44 - 24 percent against Quinn, 38 - 26 percent against Thompson and 39 - 24 percent against de Blasio. New York City voters approve 64 - 18 percent of the job Quinn is doing and give her a 54 - 18 percent favorability rating, again with almost no gender gap. de Blasio gets a 48 - 16 percent approval and a 35 - 11 percent favorability rating. Liu gets a 46 - 27 percent approval and 28 - 24 percent favorability rating. Thompson gets a 31 - 10 percent favorability rating. If Giuliani supports a candidate, New York City voters say 42 - 37 percent that would have a positive effect when they decide to vote. Mayor Bloomberg should not use his personal wealth to support a candidate for New York City mayor, voters say 51 - 38 percent. "Giuliani is in with both feet for Lhota. Will that help? A mixed result," Carroll said. From January 8 - 14, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,332 New York City voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 176 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 7.4 percentage points and 879 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more information or RSS feed, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. (If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were: John Liu, Christine Quinn, William Thompson, and Bill de Blasio, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMOCRATS Tot Men Wom Liu 9% 10% 9% Quinn 35 34 36 Thompson 10 11 10 de Blasio 11 13 10 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 3 DK/NA 31 31 32 TREND: (If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were: John Liu, Christine Quinn, William Thompson, and Bill de Blasio, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.......... Jan 16 Nov 21 Aug 15 May 10 2013 2012 2012 2012 Liu 9 5 9 7 Quinn 35 32 29 26 Thompson 10 10 10 13 de Blasio 11 9 9 10 Stringer na 4 4 4 Allon na na 1 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 31 37 34 34 2. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were: Joseph Lhota, John Catsimatidis, Adolfo Carrion, George McDonald, and Tom Allon, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Tot Men Wom Lhota 23% 28% 18% Catsimatidis 9 5 13 Carrion 3 7 - McDonald 2 2 3 Allon 5 7 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 7 3 DK/NA 53 44 60 3. If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Christine Quinn the Democrat and Joseph Lhota the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Quinn 62% 17% 81% 44% 58% 65% 55% 73% 71% Lhota 17 62 5 24 23 13 27 9 8 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 3 2 1 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 6 3 4 2 5 3 DK/NA 16 18 10 24 15 17 15 12 16 WHITE................................. COLLEGE DEG Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Quinn 59% 46% 57% 44% 52% 58% Lhota 23 35 23 39 32 22 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 3 1 3 DK/NA 14 17 17 13 13 16 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Quinn 62% 62% 68% 65% 58% 65% 57% 64% 63% Lhota 17 18 16 18 19 17 17 18 17 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 1 2 - 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 4 3 2 4 3 4 DK/NA 16 16 13 11 19 16 20 13 14 4. If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were William Thompson the Democrat and Joseph Lhota the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Thompson 55% 10% 74% 38% 55% 56% 44% 73% 63% Lhota 19 67 6 26 22 16 29 6 14 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 3 2 1 2 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 6 3 6 4 4 4 4 3 DK/NA 20 17 16 28 17 22 22 15 16 WHITE................................. COLLEGE DEG Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Thompson 47% 39% 43% 30% 45% 44% Lhota 27 34 28 45 32 25 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 - 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 2 5 3 5 DK/NA 21 22 25 19 18 25 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Thompson 54% 57% 61% 59% 51% 62% 55% 56% 51% Lhota 18 19 19 17 20 19 18 18 20 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 2 - 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 3 5 5 3 4 5 4 DK/NA 22 18 16 18 22 17 22 19 24 5. If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Bill de Blasio the Democrat and Joseph Lhota the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp de Blasio 57% 12% 77% 39% 54% 60% 50% 70% 63% Lhota 17 64 5 24 21 14 26 6 15 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 5 3 6 5 4 3 5 5 DK/NA 20 19 15 28 19 21 20 18 16 WHITE................................. COLLEGE DEG Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom de Blasio 53% 43% 57% 34% 50% 50% Lhota 24 30 25 44 29 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 3 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 4 2 4 DK/NA 19 22 14 18 18 22 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ de Blasio 57% 57% 63% 61% 52% 60% 56% 58% 56% Lhota 17 18 17 15 20 17 17 18 17 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 - 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 5 2 5 5 4 4 5 4 DK/NA 21 19 17 17 22 19 22 18 22 6. Is your opinion of John Liu favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 28% 25% 31% 21% 29% 27% 24% 37% 20% Unfavorable 24 32 21 27 29 20 35 14 16 Hvn't hrd enough 46 42 46 49 40 51 39 47 61 REFUSED 2 1 2 3 3 2 1 2 2 7. Is your opinion of Christine Quinn favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 54% 25% 64% 47% 54% 55% 54% 63% 54% Unfavorable 18 41 9 24 20 17 25 15 9 Hvn't hrd enough 26 32 25 26 24 27 20 22 36 REFUSED 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 1 1 8. Is your opinion of William Thompson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 31% 18% 35% 29% 34% 29% 26% 51% 23% Unfavorable 10 18 8 11 12 9 15 8 7 Hvn't hrd enough 57 61 56 58 52 61 57 40 69 REFUSED 2 4 1 2 3 1 2 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of William Thompson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*High also 38% July 2009) FAVORABLE..... High Low Jan 16 Aug 26 Jul 28 Jun 16 Mar 24 Aug 26 Feb 24 2013 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009* 2009 Favorable 31 38 38 29 25 38 22 Unfavorable 10 10 9 6 5 10 5 Hvn't hrd enough 57 51 52 63 68 51 71 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 9. Is your opinion of Bill de Blasio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 35% 29% 40% 28% 35% 35% 37% 38% 31% Unfavorable 11 24 7 13 14 9 14 10 8 Hvn't hrd enough 52 46 52 57 49 54 47 51 60 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 10. Is your opinion of Joseph Lhota favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 19% 43% 12% 21% 22% 16% 26% 10% 11% Unfavorable 11 4 13 10 13 10 12 12 12 Hvn't hrd enough 69 52 73 67 64 72 60 78 74 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 - 2 11. Is your opinion of John Catsimatidis favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 5% 15% 3% 6% 6% 4% 7% 1% 6% Unfavorable 7 3 8 7 8 6 9 7 2 Hvn't hrd enough 87 81 89 85 85 89 83 92 90 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 - 2 12. Is your opinion of Adolfo Carrion favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 9% 5% 11% 7% 9% 9% 6% 10% 19% Unfavorable 6 9 6 5 8 5 7 8 4 Hvn't hrd enough 83 86 81 86 81 85 86 81 75 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 13. Is your opinion of George McDonald favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 5% 10% 3% 3% 5% 4% 3% 4% 8% Unfavorable 5 6 6 3 5 5 4 5 7 Hvn't hrd enough 90 83 90 93 89 90 93 91 84 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 - - 1 14. Is your opinion of Tom Allon favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 5% 5% 4% 5% 7% 3% 4% 5% 6% Unfavorable 2 2 2 1 3 2 2 4 2 Hvn't hrd enough 92 92 93 92 89 94 93 91 91 REFUSED 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 - 2 15. Is your opinion of Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 48% 90% 38% 55% 52% 46% 56% 32% 52% Unfavorable 43 4 53 37 43 43 40 62 32 Hvn't hrd enough 6 3 6 3 4 8 3 4 13 REFUSED 3 3 3 4 2 4 2 3 4 16. If Rudy Giuliani supports a candidate for mayor, is that a positive or a negative when you decide whether to vote for that candidate? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Positive 42% 85% 32% 44% 41% 43% 45% 28% 50% Negative 37 4 47 29 40 34 38 50 27 NO DIFFERENCE(VOL) 16 10 15 21 15 18 15 14 14 DK/NA 5 1 6 5 5 6 3 8 8 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Positive 45% 45% 33% 42% 52% Negative 35 36 45 35 27 NO DIFFERENCE(VOL) 14 15 15 20 15 DK/NA 5 5 8 3 5 20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill de Blasio is handling his job as Public Advocate? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 48% 44% 53% 40% 49% 47% 49% 53% 42% Disapprove 16 26 12 18 17 15 18 19 12 DK/NA 36 30 34 42 34 38 34 29 46 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Approve 43% 57% 41% 48% 47% Disapprove 17 14 16 17 17 DK/NA 40 29 44 35 36 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill de Blasio is handling his job as Public Advocate? APPROVE....... High Low Jan 16 Nov 21 Aug 15 Jun 13 May 10 Nov 21 May 21 2013 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2010 Approve 48 49 45 39 48 49 34 Disapprove 16 14 16 17 13 14 16 DK/NA 36 37 39 44 39 37 50 21. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christine Quinn is handling her job as City Council Speaker? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 64% 41% 73% 55% 60% 66% 61% 75% 59% Disapprove 18 39 11 23 23 15 23 14 15 DK/NA 18 20 16 22 16 19 15 12 26 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Approve 59% 61% 66% 68% 61% Disapprove 17 20 17 16 25 DK/NA 24 18 17 15 15 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christine Quinn is handling her job as City Council Speaker? APPROVE....... High Low Jan 16 Nov 21 Aug 15 Jun 13 May 10 Nov 21 Nov 25 2013 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2008 Approve 64 65 56 55 57 65 40 Disapprove 18 18 27 24 23 18 29 DK/NA 18 18 17 21 20 18 31 22. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Liu is handling his job as City Comptroller? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 46% 39% 48% 44% 46% 46% 41% 58% 41% Disapprove 27 39 22 32 33 23 35 19 23 DK/NA 27 22 29 24 21 32 24 22 36 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Approve 41% 51% 42% 45% 51% Disapprove 25 25 29 29 32 DK/NA 35 23 29 27 17 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Liu is handling his job as City Comptroller? APPROVE....... High Low Jan 16 Nov 21 Aug 15 Jun 13 May 10 May 11 Dec 15 2013 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 Approve 46 48 43 40 41 57 38 Disapprove 27 22 31 32 32 14 35 DK/NA 27 30 26 28 27 30 27 23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joseph Lhota handled his job as head of the MTA? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 36% 55% 33% 36% 37% 35% 46% 23% 27% Disapprove 46 27 47 50 47 45 34 63 53 DK/NA 18 18 20 14 16 20 19 14 20 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Approve 27% 43% 38% 32% 31% Disapprove 54 40 39 50 58 DK/NA 19 17 23 18 11 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joseph Lhota handled his job as head of the MTA? (*handling job) Jan 16 Nov 21 2013 2012* Approve 36 38 Disapprove 46 45 DK/NA 18 17 27. Do you think Mayor Bloomberg should or should not use his personal wealth to support one of the candidates for New York City Mayor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Should use wealth 38% 36% 38% 39% 37% 38% 42% 34% 39% No, should not 51 48 53 49 53 50 48 55 53 DK/NA 11 17 9 12 10 12 9 11 8 ANNUAL HSHOLD INC <50K 50-100 >100K Should use wealth 37% 30% 45% No, should not 52 59 45 DK/NA 11 11 10 TREND: Do you think Mayor Bloomberg should or should not use his personal wealth to support one of the candidates for New York City Mayor? Jan 16 Nov 21 2013 2012 Should use wealth 38 39 No, should not 51 48 DK/NA 11 13 Demographic Summary
