April 19, 2013 - With Big Negatives, Weiner At 15% Among NYC Democrats, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; All Voters Divided On Whether He Should Run Word format PDF format Former U.S. Rep. Anthony Weiner gets 15 percent of Democratic primary voters in the New York City mayor's race, but he has a negative favorability, and all voters are evenly divided on whether he should run for mayor, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Weiner gets a negative 33 - 41 percent favorability rating among all voters, with 23 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. City Council Speaker Christine Quinn leads the Democratic primary field with 28 percent, well short of the 40 percent needed to avoid a primary runoff. Her support includes 31 percent of women and 24 percent of men. Results for other candidates are: 15 percent for Weiner, including 20 percent of men and 12 percent of women; 11 percent for Public Advocate Bill de Blasio, including 10 percent of men and 12 percent of women; 10 percent for former City Comptroller William Thompson, including 14 percent of men and 7 percent of women; 9 percent for City Comptroller John Liu, including 9 percent of men and 8 percent of women. "The Democratic primary for New York City mayor still looks like Council Speaker Christine Quinn versus the guys," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "With his better name recognition, former Congressman Anthony Weiner jumps into the mix at 15 percent. With his negatives, however, the question is whether he can get much higher. "The one significant element if he enters the race is that it makes it far less likely for Speaker Quinn to hit that magic 40 per cent." "Who'd get into a runoff? The guys are all bunched up. It's way too early to tell," Carroll added. Weiner should run for mayor this year, 41 percent of New York City voters say, while 44 percent say he should stay out of the race. Men give Weiner a negative 36 - 43 percent favorability rating, compared to women with a negative 30 - 39 percent score. Favorability among Democrats is 38 - 34 percent. Favorability ratings for other Democratic mayoral contenders are: 45 - 27 percent for Quinn, with 26 percent who haven't heard enough about her; 33 - 10 percent for de Blasio, with 55 percent who haven't heard enough about him; 32 - 9 percent for Thompson, with 57 percent who haven't heard enough about him; 31 - 22 percent for Liu, with 45 percent who haven't heard enough about him. For former Metropolitan Transportation Authority Chair Joseph Lhota, the leading Republican candidate, 65 percent don't know enough about him to form an opinion. In head-to-head general election matchups, all the Democratic contenders beat Lhota: Quinn leads Lhota 60 - 21 percent; de Blasio tops Lhota 59 - 19 percent; Thompson is up 55 - 19 percent; Liu is ahead 56 - 22 percent; Weiner leads 51 - 26 percent. "The history of five straight mayoral elections aside, it still looks like a reliably blue Democratic town. Weiner joins his fellow Democrats in thumping Joe Lhota," Carroll said. From April 15 - 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,161 New York City voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 740 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, or call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. (If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were: John Liu, Christine Quinn, William Thompson, Bill de Blasio, and Anthony Weiner, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.................. Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Liu 9% 9% 8% 5% 9% 6% Quinn 28 24 31 31 22 35 Thompson 10 14 7 9 14 8 de Blasio 11 10 12 13 7 14 Weiner 15 20 12 15 18 13 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 3 3 3 1 DK/NA 24 20 26 23 26 24 TREND: (If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were: John Liu, Christine Quinn, William Thompson, Bill de Blasio, and Anthony Weiner for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.................................. Apr 19 Apr 10 Feb 27 Jan 16 Nov 21 Aug 15 May 10 2013 2013 2013 2013 2012 2012 2012 Liu 9 7 9 9 5 9 7 Quinn 28 32 37 35 32 29 26 Thompson 10 13 11 10 10 10 13 de Blasio 11 14 14 11 9 9 10 Weiner 15 na na na na na na Stringer na na na na 4 4 4 Allon na na na na na 1 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - 1 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 24 30 27 31 37 34 34 2. If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Christine Quinn the Democrat and Joseph Lhota the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Quinn 60% 13% 77% 44% 54% 65% 48% 74% 66% Lhota 21 68 8 35 27 17 35 6 18 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 2 2 2 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 4 5 4 5 3 5 6 DK/NA 13 16 9 13 14 12 13 13 9 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Quinn 58% 61% 67% 54% 57% 60% 63% 57% Lhota 25 19 18 23 28 16 21 24 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 1 3 1 - 2 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 4 4 6 4 5 4 4 DK/NA 11 14 10 15 10 19 10 11 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Quinn 65% 60% 65% 56% 43% Lhota 19 19 20 23 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 - 1 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 6 5 3 DK/NA 9 15 9 15 11 TREND: If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Christine Quinn the Democrat and Joseph Lhota the Republican, for whom would you vote? Apr 19 Apr 10 Feb 27 Jan 16 2013 2013 2013 2013 Quinn 60 59 63 62 Lhota 21 19 19 17 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 5 3 3 DK/NA 13 16 13 16 3. If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were William Thompson the Democrat and Joseph Lhota the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Thompson 55% 8% 74% 40% 55% 56% 42% 75% 68% Lhota 19 70 5 30 23 16 32 6 11 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 4 1 3 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 1 5 6 4 5 5 4 4 DK/NA 18 21 14 20 17 20 19 14 16 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Thompson 53% 57% 61% 59% 50% 44% 60% 58% Lhota 22 17 16 19 26 20 18 20 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 - 4 3 - 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 6 4 5 2 5 8 5 3 DK/NA 18 19 19 16 15 27 15 15 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Thompson 68% 54% 59% 52% 33% Lhota 17 17 17 22 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 4 1 1 6 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 5 5 5 13 DK/NA 12 20 18 21 14 TREND: If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were William Thompson the Democrat and Joseph Lhota the Republican, for whom would you vote? Apr 19 Apr 10 Feb 27 Jan 16 2013 2013 2013 2013 Thompson 55 55 55 55 Lhota 19 17 20 19 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 4 4 4 DK/NA 18 21 20 20 4. If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Bill de Blasio the Democrat and Joseph Lhota the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp de Blasio 59% 19% 76% 39% 56% 61% 50% 69% 68% Lhota 19 63 6 30 23 16 29 9 13 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 5 2 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 4 4 3 4 3 3 5 DK/NA 17 15 13 22 16 18 18 17 12 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ de Blasio 56% 61% 66% 59% 53% 52% 59% 63% Lhota 20 18 17 19 24 18 20 19 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - 2 2 1 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 3 3 2 6 7 4 3 DK/NA 18 17 14 19 14 22 15 14 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl de Blasio 70% 59% 64% 51% 41% Lhota 15 16 18 21 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 3 1 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 4 6 8 DK/NA 14 20 13 20 11 TREND: If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Bill de Blasio the Democrat and Joseph Lhota the Republican, for whom would you vote? Apr 19 Apr 10 Feb 27 Jan 16 2013 2013 2013 2013 de Blasio 59 55 58 57 Lhota 19 18 18 17 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 5 4 4 DK/NA 17 19 18 20 5. If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were John Liu the Democrat and Joseph Lhota the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Liu 56% 12% 75% 36% 54% 57% 39% 76% 65% Lhota 22 74 7 32 25 19 35 8 15 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 4 1 2 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 - 5 8 4 5 5 3 6 DK/NA 16 13 12 20 15 17 20 13 12 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Liu 53% 58% 63% 56% 52% 56% 60% 54% Lhota 25 19 18 22 27 14 21 25 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 1 2 1 - 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 7 4 5 5 5 7 4 4 DK/NA 15 17 14 15 15 22 12 15 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Liu 63% 54% 60% 51% 50% Lhota 21 19 20 24 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 1 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 4 8 5 3 DK/NA 13 20 11 19 10 TREND: If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were John Liu the Democrat and Joseph Lhota the Republican, for whom would you vote? Apr 19 Apr 10 Feb 27 2013 2013 2013 Liu 56 52 53 Lhota 22 20 22 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 6 4 DK/NA 16 19 18 6. If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Anthony Weiner the Democrat and Joseph Lhota the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Weiner 51% 10% 67% 40% 49% 53% 38% 66% 63% Lhota 26 77 12 37 31 22 41 10 16 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 3 1 3 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 6 1 7 6 5 7 4 5 9 DK/NA 15 12 13 15 13 16 15 17 9 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Weiner 46% 54% 57% 51% 46% 52% 56% 47% Lhota 31 24 23 26 35 21 26 30 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 - 4 2 - 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 7 5 5 5 7 5 6 7 DK/NA 14 15 15 14 11 21 12 13 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Weiner 60% 50% 54% 49% 34% Lhota 24 23 25 30 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 2 2 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 6 6 5 11 DK/NA 12 19 13 14 10 7. Is your opinion of John Liu favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 31% 22% 35% 26% 36% 27% 24% 44% 24% Unfavorable 22 32 18 30 24 21 32 8 17 Hvn't hrd enough 45 43 46 41 38 50 41 45 56 REFUSED 2 3 1 3 2 3 3 2 2 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Favorable 32% 30% 32% 32% 32% 30% 35% 28% Unfavorable 28 19 14 29 27 13 21 29 Hvn't hrd enough 37 50 52 38 37 56 42 40 REFUSED 3 2 2 2 3 1 1 4 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Favorable 32% 26% 32% 34% 29% Unfavorable 15 21 25 27 21 Hvn't hrd enough 46 52 41 38 46 REFUSED 7 1 2 1 4 TREND: Is your opinion of John Liu favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Apr 19 Apr 10 Feb 27 Jan 16 2013 2013 2013 2013 Favorable 31 31 34 28 Unfavorable 22 21 23 24 Hvn't hrd enough 45 46 42 46 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 8. Is your opinion of Christine Quinn favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 45% 21% 52% 43% 44% 46% 42% 51% 46% Unfavorable 27 57 19 32 32 23 37 14 22 Hvn't hrd enough 26 21 28 24 23 30 18 32 30 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 2 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Favorable 46% 44% 47% 42% 48% 34% 53% 46% Unfavorable 33 23 19 40 33 19 27 32 Hvn't hrd enough 18 31 32 17 17 47 19 19 REFUSED 3 2 2 1 2 - 1 3 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Favorable 53% 43% 49% 39% 41% Unfavorable 21 26 26 29 38 Hvn't hrd enough 22 29 22 31 21 REFUSED 4 2 3 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Christine Quinn favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Apr 19 Apr 10 Feb 27 Jan 16 2013 2013 2013 2013 Favorable 45 49 51 54 Unfavorable 27 24 21 18 Hvn't hrd enough 26 25 27 26 REFUSED 2 2 1 2 9. Is your opinion of William Thompson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 32% 21% 36% 30% 39% 26% 29% 44% 29% Unfavorable 9 21 6 12 12 8 14 4 7 Hvn't hrd enough 57 57 57 57 48 65 56 49 62 REFUSED 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 3 2 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Favorable 32% 32% 32% 35% 30% 21% 33% 40% Unfavorable 10 9 8 10 13 6 10 10 Hvn't hrd enough 55 58 59 55 54 72 56 48 REFUSED 2 1 1 1 2 - 1 2 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Favorable 37% 34% 31% 29% 23% Unfavorable 9 8 9 12 9 Hvn't hrd enough 51 57 56 59 67 REFUSED 2 1 3 1 - TREND: Is your opinion of William Thompson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*High also 38% July 2009) FAVORABLE..... High Low Apr 19 Apr 10 Feb 27 Jan 16 Aug 26 Aug 26 Feb 24 2013 2013 2013 2013 2009 2009* 2009 Favorable 32 36 34 31 38 38 22 Unfavorable 9 10 10 10 10 10 5 Hvn't hrd enough 57 53 55 57 51 51 71 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 10. Is your opinion of Bill de Blasio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 33% 32% 36% 25% 34% 32% 34% 38% 29% Unfavorable 10 19 7 13 12 9 15 5 11 Hvn't hrd enough 55 46 55 58 51 57 49 55 59 REFUSED 2 3 1 3 3 2 2 2 1 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Favorable 35% 32% 34% 40% 33% 29% 33% 36% Unfavorable 11 10 9 8 13 6 10 13 Hvn't hrd enough 52 57 56 51 51 65 54 49 REFUSED 2 2 1 1 3 1 3 2 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Favorable 36% 36% 34% 26% 29% Unfavorable 11 11 10 10 9 Hvn't hrd enough 52 50 53 63 58 REFUSED 1 2 3 1 5 TREND: Is your opinion of Bill de Blasio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Apr 19 Apr 10 Feb 27 Jan 16 2013 2013 2013 2013 Favorable 33 34 39 35 Unfavorable 10 11 13 11 Hvn't hrd enough 55 52 46 52 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 11. Is your opinion of Anthony Weiner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 33% 17% 38% 32% 36% 30% 30% 41% 31% Unfavorable 41 65 34 47 43 39 55 25 31 Hvn't hrd enough 23 16 26 18 17 28 12 28 36 REFUSED 3 2 3 3 4 3 2 5 2 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Favorable 33% 33% 32% 36% 35% 33% 38% 29% Unfavorable 49 35 34 45 50 32 39 49 Hvn't hrd enough 14 29 30 17 12 34 20 18 REFUSED 4 3 3 2 3 1 3 4 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Favorable 39% 32% 32% 35% 20% Unfavorable 36 43 39 40 53 Hvn't hrd enough 20 23 25 21 25 REFUSED 6 2 3 5 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Anthony Weiner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Apr 19 Mar 24 Feb 24 Jan 27 Nov 25 2013 2009 2009 2009 2008 Favorable 33 31 32 34 31 Unfavorable 41 13 12 10 10 Hvn't hrd enough 23 55 55 54 57 REFUSED 3 2 2 2 2 12. Is your opinion of Joseph Lhota favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 19% 42% 12% 28% 25% 15% 29% 9% 14% Unfavorable 14 6 18 8 18 10 14 15 12 Hvn't hrd enough 65 50 68 63 54 74 56 72 73 REFUSED 2 2 2 1 3 1 1 4 1 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Favorable 22% 18% 18% 20% 25% 15% 19% 23% Unfavorable 17 11 12 14 17 10 13 16 Hvn't hrd enough 58 70 68 65 55 75 66 59 REFUSED 3 2 2 1 3 - 2 2 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Favorable 19% 17% 20% 18% 35% Unfavorable 16 13 16 14 4 Hvn't hrd enough 59 70 61 67 61 REFUSED 6 1 2 1 - TREND: Is your opinion of Joseph Lhota favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Apr 19 Apr 10 Feb 27 Jan 16 2013 2013 2013 2013 Favorable 19 19 18 19 Unfavorable 14 14 15 11 Hvn't hrd enough 65 65 66 69 REFUSED 2 1 1 1 13. Do you think Anthony Weiner should or should not run for Mayor this year? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Should run 41% 25% 45% 41% 44% 38% 33% 53% 44% Should not 44 64 40 47 44 45 55 31 42 DK/NA 15 11 15 12 13 16 12 15 14 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Should run 36% 44% 44% 44% 39% 48% 44% 34% Should not 52 40 38 46 55 30 47 50 DK/NA 12 16 18 10 6 22 9 16 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Should run 49% 38% 37% 45% 33% Should not 34 43 48 45 63 DK/NA 17 19 15 10 4 Demographic Summary
