August 28, 2013 - De Blasio Close To 40% In New York City Mayoral Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Quinn, Thompson In Battle For Second Place PDF format With 13 days until the primary election, Public Advocate Bill de Blasio surges ahead of the Democratic pack for New York City mayor with 36 percent of likely voters, close to the 40 percent threshold needed to avoid a runoff, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. City Council Speaker Christine Quinn is at 21 percent, with 20 percent for former City Comptroller William Thompson, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Former U.S. Rep. Anthony Weiner has 8 percent of likely Democratic primary voters, with 6 percent for City Comptroller John Liu, 1 percent for former Council member Sal Albanese and 8 percent undecided. This compares to the results of an August 13 Quinnipiac University poll which showed de Blasio at 30 percent, with 24 percent for Quinn and 22 percent for Thompson. In possible Democratic primary runoff matchups: De Blasio tops Quinn 59 - 30 percent; De Blasio leads Thompson 52 - 36 percent; Thompson bests Quinn 57 - 33 percent. "Talk about breaking out of the pack! Public Advocate Bill de Blasio, in fourth place just five weeks ago, is edging up on the magic 40 percent needed to avoid a Democratic primary runoff. And if there is a runoff, he clobbers Council Speaker Christine Quinn or former Comptroller and 2009 Democratic challenger William Thompson," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "De Blasio takes a big lead into the final turn. Let's see how he does in the home stretch." New York City needs to take a new direction from three-term Mayor Michael Bloomberg, 65 percent of likely Democratic voters say, while 25 percent say continue in the direction in which Bloomberg has been leading. Democratic likely primary voters list the qualities which will most decide their vote: 30 percent want a strong leader; 26 percent want someone who understands their problems; 19 percent want someone with new ideas; 18 percent want someone with the right experience. De Blasio leads by wide margins among those who want a candidate who understands them and who has new ideas and ties Quinn among those who want a strong leader. Quinn leads among those who want a candidate with the right experience. Thompson and de Blasio lead on enthusiasm: 36 percent of Thompson backers are "very enthusiastic" and 52 percent say they definitely will vote for him. Among de Blasio backers, 36 percent are "very enthusiastic" and 52 percent say they definitely will vote for him. For Quinn, 25 percent are "very enthusiastic" and 37 percent say they definitely will vote for her. Among all Democratic likely voters, 31 percent say there is a "good chance" they'll change their mind in the next 13 days. A gender gap is opening as de Blasio gets 43 percent of men and 30 percent of women, while Quinn gets 18 percent of men and 25 percent of women, with Thompson taking 18 percent of men and 21 percent of women. Black voters go 34 percent for de Blasio, 25 percent for Thompson and 15 percent for Quinn. White voters go 38 percent for de Blasio, 28 percent for Quinn and 18 percent for Thompson. "The political clich‚, that the most liberal candidate wins the Democratic primary in New York, seems to be alive and well," Carroll said. "New ideas, like his tax-the-rich proposal, win big for de Blasio. Voters seem to be getting bored with Mayor Michael Bloomberg. Almost two thirds want a new direction by the next mayor." From August 22 - 27, Quinnipiac University surveyed 602 likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and the nation as a public service and for research. For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, or call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. If the Democratic primary for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were John Liu, Christine Quinn, Bill Thompson, Bill de Blasio, Anthony Weiner and Sal Albanese, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Liu, Quinn, Thompson, de Blasio, Weiner or Albanese? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS............................ AGE IN YRS COLLEGE DEG Tot Men Wom Wht Blk <50 50+ Yes No Liu 6% 6% 7% 4% 5% 9% 5% 5% 8% Quinn 21 18 25 28 15 21 22 24 19 Thompson 20 18 21 18 25 21 19 19 21 de Blasio 36 43 30 38 34 35 36 41 31 Weiner 8 7 8 5 9 10 7 4 13 Albanese 1 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 8 7 9 7 12 3 10 7 8 POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ PARTYID DEMS..... Very SmWht Con Strong NotStrong Liu 6% 7% 7% 6% 6% Quinn 22 19 22 22 26 Thompson 13 23 21 17 20 de Blasio 50 42 29 40 25 Weiner 4 5 10 7 13 Albanese - - 1 - 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 4 3 9 7 9 DIRECTION Q11......... MOST IMPORTANT QUALITY Q10 New Same Right Undst New Strng Direction Direction Exp Prob Ideas Leadr Liu 8% 5% 13% 6% 9% 2% Quinn 14 38 35 14 9 29 Thompson 23 17 17 20 22 20 de Blasio 42 22 23 46 42 29 Weiner 8 9 7 6 11 10 Albanese - 3 1 1 - 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 - - - DK/NA 7 7 4 6 7 8 TREND: If the Democratic primary for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were John Liu, Christine Quinn, Bill Thompson, Bill de Blasio, Anthony Weiner and Sal Albanese, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Liu, Quinn, Thompson, de Blasio, Weiner or Albanese? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS Aug 28 Aug 13 Jul 29 Jul 24 2013 2013 2013 2013 Liu 6 6 6 7 Quinn 21 24 27 22 Thompson 20 22 20 20 de Blasio 36 30 21 15 Weiner 8 10 16 26 Albanese 1 1 2 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 8 7 7 8 1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Will you definitely vote for (Candidate of choice q1), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for another of the candidates? IF CHANGE MIND: Would you say there's a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely? LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Quinn Thompsn deBlasio Def vote for cand 49% 37% 52% 52% Unlikely to change 15 11 16 16 Good chance change 31 47 26 27 DK/NA 6 5 7 5 TREND: (If candidate chosen) Will you definitely vote for (Candidate of choice), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for another of the candidates? IF CHANGE MIND: Would you say there's a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely? LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS Aug 28 Aug 13 Jul 24 2013 2013 2013 Def vote for cand 49 46 45 Unlikely to change 15 16 14 Good chance change 31 34 35 DK/NA 6 4 6 1b. (If candidate chosen q1) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Candidate chosen), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all? LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Quinn Thompsn deBlasio Very enthusiastic 33% 25% 36% 36% Smwht enthusiastic 53 55 55 53 Not so enthusiastic 9 11 7 7 Not enthus at all 4 5 1 3 DK/NA 1 3 1 - TREND: (If candidate chosen) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Candidate of choice), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all? LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS Aug 28 Aug 13 Jul 24 2013 2013 2013 Very enthusiastic 33 30 27 Somewht enthusiastic 53 55 57 Not so enthusiastic 9 11 10 Not enthus at all 4 4 4 DK/NA 1 1 2 1c. (If candidate chosen q1) Who is your second choice? LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Quinn Thompsn deBlasio Liu 6% 3% 7% 9% Quinn 14 - 17 20 Thompson 23 22 - 39 de Blasio 26 48 50 - Weiner 9 10 2 14 Albanese 1 1 1 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 3 1 DK/NA 18 14 20 15 2. Are there any candidates in the Democratic primary for Mayor that you would definitely not vote for under any circumstances? IF YES: Who is that? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed) LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Liu 17% 16% 17% 20% 7% Quinn 29 31 27 26 33 Thompson 6 8 4 6 5 de Blasio 6 7 5 8 2 Weiner 47 41 51 60 36 Albanese 8 11 6 10 5 Other 2 2 3 2 - No-one 16 18 15 12 22 DK/NA 7 6 7 2 11 TREND: Are there any candidates in the Democratic primary for Mayor that you would definitely not vote for under any circumstances? IF YES: Who is that? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed) LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS Aug 28 Aug 13 Jul 24 2013 2013 2013 Liu 17 15 18 Quinn 29 24 31 Thompson 6 5 5 de Blasio 6 3 7 Weiner 47 51 28 Albanese 8 5 8 Other 2 1 1 No-one 16 14 24 DK/NA 7 10 9 3. (INTRO Q3-5: If none of the candidates in the Democratic primary for mayor gets 40% of the vote, there is a run-off election between the two candidates with the most votes.) If there is a run-off in the Democratic primary for mayor, and the candidates are Bill de Blasio and Christine Quinn, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If the runoff were today, would you lean more toward de Blasio or Quinn? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS............................ AGE IN YRS COLLEGE DEG Tot Men Wom Wht Blk <50 50+ Yes No de Blasio 59% 61% 56% 55% 66% 56% 60% 59% 58% Quinn 30 28 32 36 24 34 29 32 29 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 2 3 1 3 3 2 4 DK/NA 8 7 9 6 9 7 8 6 10 POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ PARTYID DEMS..... Very SmWht Con Strong NotStrong de Blasio 64% 68% 53% 61% 48% Quinn 31 28 32 29 39 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - 5 2 5 DK/NA 5 4 10 8 7 DIRECTION Q11.......... MOST IMPORTANT QUALITY Q10 New Same Right Undst New Strng Direction Direction Exp Prob Ideas Leadr de Blasio 71% 31% 45% 71% 77% 46% Quinn 20 54 48 21 16 39 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 7 4 1 1 4 DK/NA 8 7 4 6 6 11 TREND: (INTRO: If none of the candidates in the Democratic primary for mayor gets 40% of the vote, there is a run-off election between the two candidates with the most votes.) If there is a run-off in the Democratic primary for mayor, and the candidates are Bill de Blasio and Christine Quinn, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If the runoff were today, would you lean more toward de Blasio or Quinn? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS Aug 28 Aug 13 2013 2013 de Blasio 59 54 Quinn 30 38 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 DK/NA 8 5 4. If there is a run-off in the Democratic primary for mayor, and the candidates are Bill de Blasio and Bill Thompson, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If the runoff were today, would you lean more toward de Blasio or Thompson? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS............................ AGE IN YRS COLLEGE DEG Tot Men Wom Wht Blk <50 50+ Yes No de Blasio 52% 53% 52% 58% 42% 52% 53% 59% 46% Thompson 36 34 38 33 47 37 35 34 38 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 DK/NA 9 11 8 6 11 9 10 6 13 POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ PARTYID DEMS..... Very SmWht Con Strong NotStrong de Blasio 67% 56% 47% 58% 44% Thompson 26 33 41 32 39 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 4 1 5 DK/NA 7 11 8 9 11 DIRECTION Q11............ MOST IMPORTANT QUALITY Q10 New Same Right Undst New Strng Direction Direction Exp Prob Ideas Leadr de Blasio 54% 46% 48% 56% 58% 51% Thompson 36 42 42 35 36 36 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 7 4 - 1 3 DK/NA 11 5 7 8 5 10 TREND: If there is a run-off in the Democratic primary for mayor, and the candidates are Bill de Blasio and Bill Thompson, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If the runoff were today, would you lean more toward de Blasio or Thompson? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS Aug 28 Aug 13 2013 2013 de Blasio 52 50 Thompson 36 41 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 DK/NA 9 7 5. If there is a run-off in the Democratic primary for mayor, and the candidates are Christine Quinn and Bill Thompson, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If the runoff were today, would you lean more toward Quinn or Thompson? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS............................ AGE IN YRS COLLEGE DEG Tot Men Wom Wht Blk <50 50+ Yes No Quinn 33% 29% 36% 44% 18% 36% 31% 38% 27% Thompson 57 58 56 48 71 57 57 54 61 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 1 2 1 3 2 2 4 DK/NA 8 9 7 6 10 4 10 6 9 POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ PARTYID DEMS..... Very SmWht Con Strong NotStrong Quinn 40% 36% 30% 34% 37% Thompson 53 58 59 58 49 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 4 1 7 DK/NA 6 5 8 7 7 DIRECTION Q11............ MOST IMPORTANT QUALITY Q10 New Same Right Undst New Strng Direction Direction Exp Prob Ideas Leadr Quinn 22% 56% 47% 25% 19% 41% Thompson 69 33 43 68 75 49 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 6 4 1 2 3 DK/NA 8 5 6 6 4 7 TREND: If there is a run-off in the Democratic primary for mayor, and the candidates are Christine Quinn and Bill Thompson, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If the runoff were today, would you lean more toward Quinn or Thompson? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS Aug 28 Aug 13 Jul 29 Jul 24 2013 2013 2013 2013 Quinn 33 41 40 42 Thompson 57 51 50 51 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 2 DK/NA 8 6 7 5 7. Have you personally been contacted by a representative of the Thompson campaign, either by phone, in-person, or online asking you for your support, or not? LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Quinn Thompsn deBlasio Yes 16% 10% 35% 11% No 82 87 63 86 DK/NA 2 4 2 2 8. Have you personally been contacted by a representative of the Quinn campaign, either by phone, in-person, or online asking you for your support, or not? LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Quinn Thompsn deBlasio Yes 20% 25% 26% 19% No 77 73 71 78 DK/NA 3 2 3 3 9. Have you personally been contacted by a representative of the De Blasio campaign, either by phone, in-person, or online asking you for your support, or not? LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Quinn Thompsn deBlasio Yes 17% 11% 21% 19% No 80 86 77 80 DK/NA 2 3 2 1 10. Which of these is the most important personal quality in deciding your vote in the Democratic primary for Mayor? Is it someone who has the right experience, someone who understands your problems, someone who has new ideas, or someone who is a strong leader? LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS............................ AGE IN YRS COLLEGE DEG Tot Men Wom Wht Blk <50 50+ Yes No Right experience 18% 19% 18% 20% 19% 19% 17% 21% 15% Understands problems 26 30 23 24 26 28 25 28 25 Has new ideas 19 21 16 19 21 18 19 17 20 Strong leader 30 25 35 29 32 30 31 28 33 DK/NA 7 5 8 8 2 5 8 7 7 POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ PARTYID DEMS..... Very SmWht Con Strong NotStrong Right experience 19% 25% 16% 20% 17% Understands problems 24 36 22 28 22 Has new ideas 24 16 18 16 24 Strong leader 26 20 36 31 32 DK/NA 7 3 7 5 5 DIRECTION Q11............ New Same Direction Direction Right experience 14% 28% Understands problems 32 16 Has new ideas 21 13 Strong leader 26 40 DK/NA 6 3 11. Which comes closer to your point of view, would you say the city needs to take a new direction from Mike Bloomberg's, or the city should continue in the direction in which Mike Bloomberg has been leading? LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS............................ AGE IN YRS COLLEGE DEG Tot Men Wom Wht Blk <50 50+ Yes No New direction 65% 65% 65% 53% 86% 65% 65% 60% 70% Bloomberg direction 25 28 23 35 9 28 24 29 20 BOTH(VOL) 6 5 7 6 5 6 7 7 5 DK/NA 4 2 5 5 - 2 5 3 5 POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ PARTYID DEMS..... Very SmWht Con Strong NotStrong New direction 65% 67% 63% 68% 58% Bloomberg direction 23 17 31 20 35 BOTH(VOL) 9 12 3 6 6 DK/NA 3 4 4 5 1 MOST IMPORTANT QUALITY Q10 Right Undst New Strng Exp Prob Ideas Leadr New direction 51% 79% 74% 55% Bloomberg direction 39 15 17 33 BOTH(VOL) 5 4 7 8 DK/NA 6 2 2 3 12. If a candidate for Mayor is a Boston Red Sox fan, are you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or doesn't it make a difference? LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Wht Blk More likely 2% 3% 2% 3% 1% Less likely 8 10 6 7 6 No difference 88 86 90 87 91 DK/NA 2 2 3 3 2 Demographic Summary
