August 14, 2001 - Green Leads Pack Among Likely Dem Voters, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Two-Thirds Say They Might Change Their Mind
Public Advocate Mark Green holds a strong lead among likely Democratic primary voters, but falls short of the 40 percent needed to avoid a primary runoff election, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Among likely Democratic voters:
  • Green gets 36 percent;
  • Comptroller Alan Hevesi gets 19 percent;
  • City Council Speaker Peter Vallone gets 17 percent;
  • Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer gets 14 percent.
Among these likely voters, 65 percent say they might change their mind before the September 11 primary election, while 35 percent say their mind is made up.

From August 6 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 330 New York City likely Democratic primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 5.4 percent.

"No matter how you measure it, Public Advocate Mark Green is the front- runner. The question is whether he gets to 40 percent or faces one of the other three in a runoff," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "There's four weeks to go, with 14 percent of Democratic likely voters still undecided and 65 percent saying they might change their minds."

Among all New York City registered Democrats:
  • Green gets 32 percent;
  • Hevesi gets 18 percent;
  • Vallone gets 15 percent;
  • Ferrer gets 14 percent.
The survey includes 713 registered Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percent.

This compares with a July 25 poll by the independent Quinnipiac University where Green got 30 percent of registered Democrats, followed by 18 percent for Ferrer, 17 percent for Hevesi and 16 percent for Vallone.

By a 52 - 15 percent margin, New York City likely Democratic primary voters have a favorable opinion of Green, with 21 percent mixed and 11 percent saying they don't know enough to form an opinion. Favorability ratings among other Democratic candidates are: 
              Favorable     Unfavorable     Mixed     No Opinion
Hevesi           36%            13%          30%         20%
Vallone          33             15           30          20
Ferrer           35             16           26          22


"When we shift from measuring registered Democrats to likely Democratic primary voters, we see an increase in support for Green, a big jump in his favorability rating and a big drop in the number of those who `haven't know enough,'" Carroll said.

"The magic number for Green in the next 28 days is 40."

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201
2. Is your opinion of Fernando Ferrer favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? 

                  Likely Democratic
                  Primary Voters



Favorable         35%



Unfavorable       16



Mixed             26



Hvn't hrd enough  22



REFUSED            2
3. Is your opinion of Alan Hevesi favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? 

                  Likely Democratic
                  Primary Voters



Favorable         36%



Unfavorable       13



Mixed             30



Hvn't hrd enough  20



REFUSED            1
4. Is your opinion of Mark Green favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? 

                  Likely Democratic
                  Primary Voters



Favorable         52%



Unfavorable       15



Mixed             21



Hvn't hrd enough  11



REFUSED            1
5. Is your opinion of Peter Vallone favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? 

                  Likely Democratic
                  Primary Voters



Favorable         33%



Unfavorable       15



Mixed             30



Hvn't hrd enough  20



REFUSED            2
6. If the Democratic Primary for New York City Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Fernando Ferrer, Peter Vallone, Mark Green and Alan Hevesi for whom would you vote? 

                  Likely Democratic
                  Primary Voters



Ferrer            14%
Vallone           17
Green             36
Hevesi            19



SMONE ELSE(VOL)    -
DK/NA             14
8. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? 

                  Likely Democratic
                  Primary Voters



Made up           35%



Might change      65



DK/NA              1