May 11, 2005 - Bloomberg On Top For First Time As Ferrer Drops; Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Fields Is Close Second In Dem Primary Mayor Michael Bloomberg has pulled ahead of Democratic challenger Fernando Ferrer for the first time in his reelection bid and now leads 47 - 38 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. The Mayor holds a 43 - 38 percent lead over Manhattan Borough President C. Virginia Fields. Ferrer had a 46 - 40 percent lead over Bloomberg in a March 30 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. In that poll, Bloomberg had 42 percent to 41 percent for Fields. The Mayor has opened up a 42 - 35 percent lead over City Council Speaker Gifford Miller, compared to a 40 - 40 percent tie March 30, and a 44 - 32 percent lead over U.S. Rep. Anthony Weiner, compared to 43 - 35 percent March 30. "Mayor Bloomberg is up and Fernando Ferrer is down and the result is a big reversal of fortune that puts the incumbent Republican on top for the first time in his reelection campaign," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The Mayor has a nine-point lead, which is better than being six points down. And this is before Bloomberg taps into his multi-million-dollar war chest for TV commercials and mailings. "Manhattan Borough President C. Virginia Fields also moves up as Ferrer tumbles and now gives him a real race for Democratic primary voters." Among Democratic primary voters, Ferrer gets 27 percent, with 23 percent for Fields. This is down from a 40 - 14 percent Ferrer lead March 2 and a 36 - 21 percent Ferrer lead March 30. Weiner and Miller have barely moved among Democratic voters, with 13 percent for Weiner and 11 percent for Miller. Ferrer gets 62 percent of Hispanic Democrats, 23 percent of blacks and 17 percent of whites. Fields has 40 percent of black Democrats, 13 percent of Hispanics and 16 percent of whites. Among Democrats backing Ferrer, 71 percent say they will vote for the primary winner, no matter who it is. Among Fields backers, 57 percent say they will back the Democrat in the general election. Only 43 percent of Miller supporters and 46 percent of Weiner backers say they would back the Democratic primary winner instead of Bloomberg. Of the 57 percent of New York City voters who say they have heard or read about Ferrer's comments concerning the death of Amadou Diallo, 47 percent say Ferrer's comments make them think less favorably of him. Among black voters who know of the Diallo remarks, 62 percent think less favorably of Ferrer. New Yorkers give Mayor Bloomberg a 47 - 41 percent approval rating, virtually unchanged in months. Voters split 47 - 47 percent on whether Bloomberg cares about their needs and problems, and say 74 - 22 percent that he has strong leadership qualities. Ferrer cares, voters say 51 - 29 percent, and is a strong leader, voters say 49 - 33 percent. Voters say 46 - 21 percent that Fields cares, and 43 - 27 percent that she is a strong leader. From May 3 - 9, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,169 New York City registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The survey includes 707 Democrats, with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida and nationwide as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Michael Bloomberg is handling his job as Mayor? App Dis DK/NA May 11, 2005 47 41 12 Mar 30, 2005 46 41 12 Mar 2, 2005 48 40 12 Jan 19, 2005 50 37 13 Nov 10, 2004 49 39 12 Aug 26, 2004 44 42 14 Jul 20, 2004 49 39 12 Jun 9, 2004 50 38 12 Mar 31, 2004 47 41 12 Feb 4, 2004 44 45 11 Nov 25, 2003 37 51 13 Oct 22, 2003 42 47 12 Sep 9, 2003 38 52 11 Jul 2, 2003 31 60 8 May 7, 2003 32 56 12 Feb 26, 2003 48 41 11 Nov 21, 2002 41 46 13 Jul 18, 2002 57 23 19 Mar 27, 2002 62 16 22 Feb 6, 2002 65 6 29 TREND: If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Gifford Miller the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote? (* "Suppose the general election for mayor. . .") SMONE WDN'T GM MB ELSE VOTE DK/NA May 11, 2005 35 42 2 3 18 Mar 30, 2005 40 40 2 3 16 Mar 2, 2005 38 40 2 2 17 Jan 19, 2005 38 43 1 1 16 Nov 10, 2004 36 42 2 2 19 Jul 20, 2004 37 39 2 2 20 Jun 9, 2004 38 40 2 2 18 Mar 31, 2004* 38 41 2 2 17 Feb 4, 2004* 37 39 1 4 18 Nov 25, 2003* 41 33 5 2 19 TREND: If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Fernando Ferrer the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote?(* "Suppose the general election for mayor. . .") SMONE WDN'T FF MB ELSE VOTE DK/NA May 11, 2005 38 47 2 2 11 Mar 30, 2005 46 40 1 2 10 Mar 2, 2005 47 39 2 1 12 Jan 19, 2005 43 43 1 2 12 Nov 10, 2004 45 40 1 1 13 Jul 20, 2004 46 39 1 2 11 Jun 9, 2004 45 39 2 1 12 Mar 31, 2004* 45 41 1 2 11 Feb 4, 2004* 46 39 1 3 11 Nov 25, 2003* 51 33 3 3 10 TREND: If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Anthony Weiner the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote?(* "Suppose the general election for mayor. . .") SMONE WDN'T AW MB ELSE VOTE DK/NA May 11, 2005 32 44 2 3 19 Mar 30, 2005 35 43 2 3 17 Mar 2, 2005 36 41 2 3 19 Jan 19, 2005 36 43 1 2 19 Nov 10, 2004 35 40 1 3 21 Jul 20, 2004 34 40 2 2 21 Jun 9, 2004 37 42 2 2 18 Mar 31, 2004* 36 40 2 2 20 Feb 4, 2004* 34 40 2 4 20 TREND: If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were C. Virginia Fields the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote?(* "Suppose the general election for mayor. . .") SMONE WDN'T VF MB ELSE VOTE DK/NA May 11, 2005 38 43 1 2 15 Mar 30, 2005 41 42 2 2 13 Mar 2, 2005 38 41 2 2 18 Jan 19, 2005 39 44 1 2 15 Nov 10, 2004 38 42 1 2 18 Jul 20, 2004 38 42 1 2 17 Jun 9, 2004 39 43 1 2 15 Mar 31, 2004* 39 41 2 2 16 TREND: (If registered Democrat)If the Democratic primary for mayor were being held today and the candidates were Gifford Miller, Fernando Ferrer, C. Virginia Fields, and Anthony Weiner, for whom would you vote? (na = not asked) REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.......... May 11 Mar 30 Mar 2 Jan 19 Nov 10 2005 2005 2005 2005 2004 Miller 11 10 12 12 8 Ferrer 27 36 40 31 28 Fields 23 21 14 15 14 Barron na na na 5 3 Weiner 13 11 12 10 8 Thompson na na na na 9 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 2 2 2 DK/NA 21 19 20 24 27 TREND: Would you say that Michael Bloomberg cares about the needs and problems of people like you, or not? Yes No DK/NA May 11, 2005 47 47 6 Mar 2, 2005 41 52 7 Nov 10, 2004 45 49 7 Jul 20, 2004 42 52 6 Jun 9, 2004 40 52 8 Mar 31, 2004 42 50 8 TREND: Would you say that Gifford Miller cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Yes No DK/NA May 11, 2005 37 25 38 March 2, 2005 34 19 46 TREND: Would you say that Fernando Ferrer cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Yes No DK/NA May 11, 2005 51 29 20 March 2, 2005 62 16 22 TREND: Would you say that C. Virginia Fields cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Yes No DK/NA May 11, 2005 46 21 34 March 2, 2005 43 16 41 TREND: Would you say that Anthony Weiner cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Yes No DK/NA May 11, 2005 34 22 44 March 2, 2005 32 15 52 TREND: Would you say that Michael Bloomberg has strong leadership qualities or not? Yes No DK/NA May 11, 2005 74 22 4 Nov 10, 2004 65 30 5 Jul 20, 2004 64 32 4 Jun 9, 2004 65 28 8 Mar 31, 2004 65 31 5 TREND: Have you heard or read anything about Fernando Ferrer's recent comments about the Amadou Diallo case? Yes No DK/NA May 11, 2005 57 42 1 Mar 30, 2005 46 53 1 TREND: (If heard or read about)Do Fernando Ferrer's recent comments about the Amadou Diallo case make you think more favorably of Ferrer, less favorably of Ferrer, or don't they affect your opinion of him? More Less No Fav Fav Diff DK/NA May 11, 2005 6 47 43 4 Mar 30, 2005 8 41 45 7 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Michael Bloomberg is handling his job as Mayor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Approve 47% 62% 42% 52% 54% 46% 30% Disapprove 41 31 45 37 35 44 53 DK/NA 12 7 13 11 11 10 16 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Approve 39% 45% 52% 49% 54% 52% 43% Disapprove 51 43 35 39 39 40 42 DK/NA 10 12 13 12 7 8 15 2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Approve 25% 78% 11% 24% 32% 18% 21% Disapprove 71 19 85 72 65 78 72 DK/NA 4 3 4 4 3 4 7 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Approve 24% 29% 16% 22% 50% 26% 24% Disapprove 70 68 82 73 47 71 72 DK/NA 6 4 2 5 3 3 5 3. If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Gifford Miller the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Miller 35% 11% 47% 25% 28% 44% 42% Bloomberg 42 71 31 49 52 32 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 4 1 2 6 DK/NA 18 15 19 19 17 20 19 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Miller 39% 36% 37% 34% 23% 34% 36% Bloomberg 33 37 44 47 58 45 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 2 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 6 1 3 2 2 2 3 DK/NA 21 24 14 15 14 15 21 4. If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Fernando Ferrer the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Ferrer 38% 14% 47% 31% 25% 46% 65% Bloomberg 47 72 37 53 59 39 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 2 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 3 2 3 2 DK/NA 11 9 12 11 13 10 7 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Ferrer 52% 35% 36% 39% 23% 36% 40% Bloomberg 34 47 50 46 64 51 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 6 1 1 2 2 2 3 DK/NA 7 15 11 11 9 10 13 5. If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Anthony Weiner the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Weiner 32% 15% 40% 27% 26% 41% 41% Bloomberg 44 67 36 50 53 37 32 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 3 5 2 3 6 DK/NA 19 15 21 16 18 17 20 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Weiner 33% 35% 27% 37% 18% 31% 33% Bloomberg 35 42 47 44 59 48 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 2 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 8 2 3 2 4 2 4 DK/NA 23 19 22 15 17 16 22 6. If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were C. Virginia Fields the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Fields 38% 10% 50% 27% 26% 53% 51% Bloomberg 43 75 32 48 56 30 29 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 5 2 1 4 DK/NA 15 12 15 18 14 15 14 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Fields 46% 36% 41% 37% 25% 32% 43% Bloomberg 30 43 45 43 61 50 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 2 2 3 0 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 6 1 1 2 5 3 2 DK/NA 15 19 12 16 8 13 17 7. (If registered Democrat)If the Democratic primary for mayor were being held today and the candidates were Gifford Miller, Fernando Ferrer, C. Virginia Fields and Anthony Weiner for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMOCRATS........................ Tot Wht Blk Hisp Miller 11% 17% 8% 2% Ferrer 27 17 23 62 Fields 23 16 40 13 Weiner 13 23 7 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 6 2 1 DK/NA 21 19 20 17 Brnx Kngs Man Qns Men Wom Miller 4% 9% 20% 10% 13% 10% Ferrer 46 29 19 24 30 25 Fields 28 17 26 23 16 28 Weiner 6 15 12 17 16 11 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 4 4 5 2 DK/NA 12 27 18 21 18 23 8. (If candidate choice q7)Who would your second choice be? REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.......... Candidate Choice Q7........... Miller Ferrer Fields Weiner Miller - 25% 27% 39% Ferrer 27 - 38 27 Fields 30 30 - 10 Weiner 25 20 15 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 4 DK/NA 14 23 17 17 9. (If registered Democrat)Regardless of who you support in the Democratic primary, in the general election for Mayor would you vote for the Democratic primary winner or Michael Bloomberg? REGISTERED DEMOCRATS........................ Tot Wht Blk Hisp Dem primary winner 54% 40% 63% 72% Bloomberg 27 38 22 15 DK/NA 20 22 14 12 Brnx Kngs Man Qns Men Wom Dem primary winner 56% 58% 48% 54% 52% 55% Bloomberg 26 25 32 22 30 25 DK/NA 18 17 20 24 19 20 Candidate Choice Q7........... Miller Ferrer Fields Weiner Dem primary winner 43% 71% 57% 46% Bloomberg 34 17 22 37 DK/NA 23 11 21 17 10. Thinking about the 2005 election for Public Advocate, do you feel that Betsy Gotbaum deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that she does not deserve to be reelected? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Deserves reelection 38% 28% 41% 37% 35% 45% 36% Does not 18 20 15 19 19 17 18 DK/NA 44 52 44 43 45 39 45 11. Thinking about the 2005 election for City Comptroller, do you feel that William Thompson deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Deserves reelection 39% 34% 41% 34% 34% 56% 32% Does not 18 19 15 23 17 14 24 DK/NA 44 48 44 44 49 30 45 12. Would you say that Michael Bloomberg cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Yes 47% 63% 44% 46% 54% 46% 33% No 47 35 49 49 41 49 59 DK/NA 6 2 7 5 5 5 8 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Yes 40% 46% 50% 48% 50% 47% 46% No 53 49 42 48 46 48 47 DK/NA 7 5 9 4 4 5 7 13. Would you say that Gifford Miller cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Yes 37% 26% 42% 34% 38% 40% 28% No 25 37 18 32 26 22 27 DK/NA 38 37 40 35 36 38 45 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Yes 32% 36% 43% 39% 26% 39% 36% No 22 24 21 30 34 31 20 DK/NA 46 40 37 31 40 30 45 14. Would you say that Fernando Ferrer cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Yes 51% 32% 60% 44% 44% 55% 71% No 29 45 22 35 36 28 15 DK/NA 20 22 18 21 21 17 14 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Yes 60% 52% 52% 49% 37% 53% 50% No 28 24 29 32 42 30 28 DK/NA 12 24 19 19 21 17 22 15. Would you say that C. Virginia Fields cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Yes 46% 26% 54% 38% 37% 67% 40% No 21 37 14 28 26 11 18 DK/NA 34 38 32 34 36 22 41 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Yes 44% 44% 55% 43% 37% 43% 48% No 23 21 17 20 27 28 15 DK/NA 32 35 28 37 36 30 37 16. Would you say that Anthony Weiner cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Yes 34% 29% 39% 29% 40% 34% 26% No 22 36 14 29 22 20 25 DK/NA 44 35 47 42 38 46 48 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Yes 30% 40% 30% 37% 25% 39% 31% No 21 18 21 25 30 26 19 DK/NA 49 42 49 38 45 35 51 17. Would you say that Michael Bloomberg has strong leadership qualities or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Yes 74% 82% 73% 74% 78% 74% 63% No 22 16 23 23 18 23 33 DK/NA 4 2 5 3 4 4 4 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Yes 67% 72% 81% 73% 78% 73% 75% No 29 23 16 23 18 24 21 DK/NA 5 4 3 4 4 3 5 18. Would you say that Gifford Miller has strong leadership qualities or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Yes 36% 28% 40% 34% 35% 42% 31% No 27 33 22 31 29 23 25 DK/NA 37 39 38 35 36 35 44 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Yes 34% 34% 39% 36% 36% 37% 35% No 26 27 25 28 28 34 21 DK/NA 40 39 35 36 37 29 44 19. Would you say that Fernando Ferrer has strong leadership qualities or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Yes 49% 37% 57% 41% 40% 53% 72% No 33 43 25 45 40 30 20 DK/NA 18 20 18 15 20 17 8 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Yes 61% 52% 44% 47% 35% 47% 51% No 28 29 35 35 45 36 30 DK/NA 11 19 20 18 19 16 19 20. Would you say that C. Virginia Fields has strong leadership qualities or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Yes 43% 23% 50% 42% 33% 62% 50% No 27 42 22 28 32 18 21 DK/NA 30 35 28 30 36 20 29 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Yes 49% 42% 45% 40% 35% 37% 47% No 23 28 27 27 28 34 21 DK/NA 27 29 28 33 37 28 32 21. Would you say that Anthony Weiner has strong leadership qualities or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Yes 29% 25% 35% 23% 32% 28% 27% No 28 40 20 34 28 26 30 DK/NA 43 35 45 43 40 46 43 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Yes 30% 33% 22% 33% 26% 32% 27% No 27 27 30 27 28 32 24 DK/NA 43 39 49 41 46 35 49 22. If the Democratic candidate is elected Mayor, do you think he or she would generally continue with Michael Bloomberg's policies or change direction from Bloomberg's policies? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Continue policies 17% 17% 15% 22% 20% 21% 7% Change direction 72 72 75 68 68 70 82 DK/NA 11 11 11 10 12 9 11 23. Have you heard or read anything about Fernando Ferrer's recent comments about the Amadou Diallo case? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Yes 57% 52% 57% 56% 62% 57% 48% No 42 46 42 42 36 43 51 DK/NA 1 2 1 2 1 - 1 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Yes 57% 52% 66% 51% 63% 63% 52% No 42 47 32 48 36 36 47 DK/NA 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 24. (If 'yes' q23)Do Fernando Ferrer's recent comments about the Amadou Diallo case make you think more favorably of Ferrer, less favorably of Ferrer, or don't they affect your opinion of him? (* Number of respondents is 75 or less in Staten Island. Additional caution should be taken when interpreting the findings because of the larger margin of error.) HEARD OR READ FERRER'S COMMENTS Q23................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp More favorably 6% 13% 5% 4% 5% 4% 10% Less favorably 47 41 50 45 43 62 39 Don't affect opinion 43 41 41 48 49 29 47 DK/NA 4 5 4 3 3 5 4 Brnx Kngs Man Qns *StIsl Men Wom More favorably 9% 8% 3% 5% 6% 6% 6% Less favorably 44 46 47 53 40 42 52 Don't affect opinion 39 42 48 38 50 48 38 DK/NA 8 4 1 4 4 4 4
