July 19, 2005 - Bloomberg, With 60% Approval, Thumps All Dems, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Miller Up, Fields Down In Dem Primary Pack Mayor Michael Bloomberg has a 60 percent approval among New York City voters and now tops all Democratic challengers by 15 percentage points or more, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Even Democrats approve 58 - 32 percent of Mayor Bloomberg, while Republicans approve 72 - 23 percent and independent voters approve 60 - 28 percent. Black voters approve 59 - 27 percent, while white voters approve 66 - 27 percent and Hispanic voters approve 50 - 40 percent. The Mayor is now over the 50 percent mark when matched against any Democratic contender, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds: 52 - 36 percent over Fernando Ferrer; 55 - 29 percent over Manhattan Borough President C. Virginia Fields; 55 - 30 percent over City Council Speaker Gifford Miller; 54 - 28 percent over U.S. Rep. Anthony Weiner. Bloomberg beats Fields, Miller and Weiner among Democrats and trails Ferrer 47 - 42 percent. Independent voters back Bloomberg over any Democrat by more than 2 -1. "Looking at Mayor Bloomberg's numbers, the Democrats might have to take some comfort from that great philosopher, Yogi Berra: It ain't over 'til it's over," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "But at this rate, New York City Republicans could stay home on Election Day. The Mayor could win this one with Democrats and independent voters." A total of 66 percent of New York City voters are "very satisfied" or "somewhat satisfied" with the way things are going in the city today, compared to 32 percent who are "somewhat dissatisfied" or "very dissatisfied." This satisfaction rating, and the Mayor's job approval, both are at their highest point since a March, 2002, Quinnipiac University poll, conducted in the traditional "honeymoon" period shortly after Bloomberg took office. "With the Mayor's approval and the satisfaction rating this high, any challenger would be hard-pressed to convince voters it's time for a change," Carroll said. "One would suspect that the Democratic challengers and their staffs are among the 10 percent of New Yorkers who are very dissatisfied with the way things are going in the City today." Among all Democratic primary voters, Ferrer leads the pack with 33 percent, followed by 16 percent for Fields. This compares to a 31 - 19 percent Ferrer lead in a June 22 Quinnipiac University poll. In this latest poll, Miller gets 15 percent of the Democrats, up from 12 percent June 22. Weiner is at 11 percent, virtually unchanged. Among all voters, 24 percent see "major differences" on the issues among the four Democratic candidates, with 42 percent who see "minor differences" and 13 percent who see "no differences." Results among Democrats, Republicans and independent voters are virtually the same. "Ferrer leads as the Democratic horses round the final turn. But Miller is making a move. Fields and Weiner are fading in the stretch," Carroll said. "Ideological differences among the Democrats? Most New Yorkers don't see many." From July 12 - 17, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,313 New York City registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. The survey includes 807 Democrats, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida and nationwide as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Michael Bloomberg is handling his job as Mayor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Approve 60% 72% 58% 60% 66% 59% 50% Disapprove 30 23 32 28 27 27 40 DK/NA 10 5 10 12 7 15 10 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Approve 56% 58% 62% 60% 75% 66% 56% Disapprove 33 32 27 30 22 25 33 DK/NA 11 10 11 10 3 9 11 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Michael Bloomberg is handling his job as Mayor? Highest Lowest Approve Approve Jul 19 Jun 22 May 11 Mar 30 Feb 6 Jul 2 2005 2005 2005 2005 2002 2003 Approve 60 55 47 46 65 31 Disapprove 30 36 41 41 6 60 DK/NA 10 10 12 12 29 8 4. If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Gifford Miller the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Miller 30% 12% 39% 24% 26% 29% 38% Bloomberg 55 79 47 59 62 55 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 1 1 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 - 1 DK/NA 12 7 11 14 10 15 11 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Miller 32% 31% 29% 32% 19% 26% 34% Bloomberg 51 55 57 52 69 62 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 2 2 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 2 1 1 DK/NA 14 12 11 13 9 9 14 TREND: If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Gifford Miller the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote? Jul 19 Jun 22 May 11 Mar 30 Mar 2 Jan 19 Nov 10 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2004 Miller 30 33 35 40 38 38 36 Bloomberg 55 49 42 40 40 43 42 SMONE ELSE 2 3 2 2 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE 1 2 3 3 2 1 2 DK/NA 12 13 18 16 17 16 19 5. If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Fernando Ferrer the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Ferrer 36% 16% 47% 27% 25% 43% 58% Bloomberg 52 76 42 58 63 45 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 2 - 1 DK/NA 10 8 9 11 9 12 7 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Ferrer 49% 35% 37% 34% 19% 33% 39% Bloomberg 41 52 54 50 71 56 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 8 11 7 13 8 9 11 TREND: If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Fernando Ferrer the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote? Jul 19 Jun 22 May 11 Mar 30 Mar 2 Jan 19 Nov 10 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2004 Ferrer 36 37 38 46 47 43 45 Bloomberg 52 50 47 40 39 43 40 SMONE ELSE 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 DK/NA 10 10 11 10 12 12 13 6. If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Anthony Weiner the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Weiner 28% 16% 35% 23% 24% 28% 37% Bloomberg 54 72 48 58 60 55 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 2 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 1 3 2 1 1 DK/NA 14 11 14 15 12 15 14 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Weiner 27% 34% 23% 30% 20% 24% 32% Bloomberg 54 51 57 51 71 61 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 1 1 - 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 4 1 1 1 2 DK/NA 15 13 15 16 8 12 16 TREND: If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Anthony Weiner the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote? Jul 19 Jun 22 May 11 Mar 30 Mar 2 Jan 19 Nov 10 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2004 Weiner 28 30 32 35 36 36 35 Bloomberg 54 51 44 43 41 43 40 SMONE ELSE 1 3 2 2 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE 2 2 3 3 3 2 3 DK/NA 14 15 19 17 19 19 21 7. If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were C. Virginia Fields the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Fields 29% 11% 37% 24% 18% 38% 40% Bloomberg 55 80 47 59 66 49 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 1 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 2 2 2 1 1 DK/NA 13 7 13 14 12 12 15 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Fields 35% 29% 28% 30% 14% 24% 34% Bloomberg 50 53 57 52 77 63 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 4 1 1 2 2 DK/NA 12 15 10 16 7 10 15 TREND: If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were C. Virginia Fields the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote? Jul 19 Jun 22 May 11 Mar 30 Mar 2 Jan 19 Nov 10 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2004 Fields 29 34 38 41 38 39 38 Bloomberg 55 49 43 42 41 44 42 SMONE ELSE 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 13 13 15 13 18 15 18 8. (If registered democrat)If the Democratic primary for mayor were being held today and the candidates were Gifford Miller, Fernando Ferrer, C. Virginia Fields and Anthony Weiner for whom would you vote? DEMOCRATS................................... Tot Wht Blk Hisp Miller 15% 22% 8% 8% Ferrer 33 22 33 65 Fields 16 7 34 8 Weiner 11 18 4 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 8 3 1 DK/NA 18 22 15 15 Brnx Kngs Man Qns Men Wom Miller 9% 13% 19% 16% 18% 12% Ferrer 48 27 32 32 36 31 Fields 22 18 13 14 11 19 Weiner 2 17 7 15 12 11 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 2 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 8 4 6 4 DK/NA 17 20 19 17 15 21 TREND: (If registered Democrat)If the Democratic primary for mayor were being held today and the candidates were Gifford Miller, Fernando Ferrer, C. Virginia Fields, and Anthony Weiner, for whom would you vote? (na = not asked) REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.................................. Jul 19 Jun 22 May 11 Mar 30 Mar 2 Jan 19 Nov 10 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2004 Miller 15 12 11 10 12 12 8 Ferrer 33 31 27 36 40 31 28 Fields 16 19 23 21 14 15 14 Barron na na na na na 5 3 Weiner 11 12 13 11 12 10 8 Thompson na na na na na na 9 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 DK/NA 18 18 21 19 20 24 27 9. (If registered democrat)If the candidate you support loses in the Democratic primary for Mayor, who would you vote for in the general election for Mayor in November -- Michael Bloomberg or the Democratic primary winner? DEMOCRATS................... Tot Wht Blk Hisp Bloomberg 44% 49% 47% 29% Democrat 41 35 41 56 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 2 DK/NA 13 14 11 12 Brnx Kngs Man Qns Men Wom Bloomberg 41% 44% 43% 43% 51% 38% Democrat 42 42 39 43 37 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 1 - 2 DK/NA 14 13 15 12 11 15 10. From what you know about the four Democratic candidates running for Mayor, would you say there are major differences, minor differences, or no differences at all between them on the issues? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Major diff 24% 24% 24% 22% 22% 27% 26% Minor diff 42 33 44 42 45 38 38 No diff 13 16 11 17 10 18 16 DK/NA 21 27 21 18 23 18 20 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Major diff 23% 24% 23% 22% 32% 22% 26% Minor diff 43 39 45 43 35 48 37 No diff 17 15 9 12 13 14 13 DK/NA 16 22 23 23 20 16 25 11. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New York City today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Very satisfied 11% 23% 7% 12% 17% 3% 8% Smwht satisfied 55 56 56 54 57 58 46 Smwht dissatisfied 22 12 23 23 19 25 27 Very dissatisfied 10 5 12 10 6 13 17 DK/NA 2 4 1 2 2 1 2 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Very satisfied 8% 9% 13% 11% 20% 15% 8% Smwht satisfied 50 55 57 56 54 57 52 Smwht dissatisfied 28 24 18 23 18 19 25 Very dissatisfied 12 11 11 9 7 6 13 DK/NA 3 2 2 1 1 2 1 12. Have you seen any of Michael Bloomberg's television advertisements for this year's election for mayor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Yes 57% 58% 56% 57% 57% 55% 60% No 41 40 43 41 42 42 39 DK/NA 2 2 1 3 2 3 1 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Yes 59% 57% 48% 64% 54% 57% 57% No 39 41 51 35 43 42 41 DK/NA 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 13. (If 'yes' q12)Do they make you more likely to vote for Michael Bloomberg, less likely to vote for Michael Bloomberg, or don't they make a difference? (* Number of respondents is 75 or less in this subgroup. Additional caution should be taken when interpreting the findings of this subgroup because of the larger margin of error.) HAVE SEEN ADDS Q12.................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp More likely 12% 24% 11% 10% 13% 11% 13% Less likely 16 9 18 14 16 11 19 No diff 70 65 69 75 71 77 64 DK/NA 2 2 2 1 1 1 3 Brnx Kngs Man Qns *StIsl Men Wom More likely 15% 14% 10% 11% 13% 13% 12% Less likely 15 17 20 15 7 11 20 No diff 66 68 68 72 80 74 66 DK/NA 4 1 3 2 - 2 2 14. Do you think Mayor Bloomberg favors Manhattan over the outer boroughs or gives all areas of the city equal attention? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Favors Manhattan 52% 47% 55% 50% 47% 57% 58% Equal attention 36 45 35 36 42 33 27 DK/NA 11 8 11 14 11 10 14 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Favors Manhattan 60% 53% 44% 56% 49% 53% 52% Equal attention 31 35 38 36 48 38 35 DK/NA 9 12 19 8 3 9 13
