August 18, 2005 - Ferrer Still Short Of 40% In NYC Dem Primary, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Three Others In Horse Race For Second Place New York City likely Democratic primary voters give mayoral candidate Fernando Ferrer 33 percent, short of the 40 percent he needs to avoid a Democratic primary runoff, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. The other Democratic contenders are in a horse race for second place, and a chance to be in the runoff, with 17 percent each for Council Speaker Gifford Miller and Manhattan Borough President C. Virginia Fields and 16 percent for U.S. Rep. Anthony Weiner, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Even among these likely Democratic voters, 16 percent remain undecided and 51 percent say they still might change their mind before the September 13 primary. And 44 percent of these likely Democratic voters say they will vote for Republican Mayor Michael Bloomberg if the candidate they support does not win the primary. "Fernando Ferrer is on the lead horse, but still short of the brass ring - the 40 percent that assures him the Democratic mayoral nomination," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Gifford Miller, Virginia Fields and Anthony Weiner are jockeying for position, hoping to come in second and get into the runoff, if there is a runoff. "None of the Democrats has a very strong base of support. Half of the voters for any candidate might change their mind, and a big chunk say they will vote for Mayor Bloomberg if their candidate is not the Democratic nominee." A primary runoff helps the Democrats because it focuses attention on their candidates, 41 percent of voters say, but 45 percent say a divisive battle hurts the Democrats. Bloomberg Approval New York City registered voters give Mayor Bloomberg a 64 - 26 percent approval, just one point short of his all-time high in a February 6, 2002, Quinnipiac University poll, one month after he took office. Likely Democratic primary voters give Bloomberg a higher favorability than any of the Democratic contenders, 50 - 25 percent with 23 percent mixed. This compares with: 32 - 23 percent for Ferrer, with 31 percent mixed and 12 percent who don't know enough to form an opinion; 21 - 13 percent for Miller, with 19 percent mixed and 46 percent who don't know enough to form an opinion; 23 - 21 percent for Fields, with 17 percent mixed and 37 percent who don't know enough to form an opinion; 24 - 8 percent for Weiner, with 13 percent mixed and 53 percent who don't know enough to form an opinion. Public Advocate and Manhattan District Attorney In the race for Public Advocate, incumbent Betsy Gotbaum gets 38 percent of Democratic primary voters, followed by 25 percent for Norman Siegal and 6 percent for Andrew Rasiej. Incumbent Manhattan District Attorney Robert Morgenthau leads Leslie Crocker Snyder 61 - 16 percent among Manhattan likely Democratic voters. "No doubt Public Advocate Betsy Gotbaum leads. The question is whether Norman Siegel can force her into a runoff," Carroll said. "Robert Morgenthau, the DA for all ages, looks as if he'll be DA forever." From August 9 - 15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,601 New York City registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. The survey includes 489 likely Democratic primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida and nationwide as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Michael Bloomberg is handling his job as Mayor? REGISTERED VOTERS................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Approve 64% 75% 61% 65% 70% 60% 55% Disapprove 26 18 29 24 22 28 33 DK/NA 10 6 10 11 8 12 12 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Approve 57% 61% 69% 65% 65% 68% 60% Disapprove 31 30 20 25 24 23 29 DK/NA 12 8 11 10 10 9 11 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Michael Bloomberg is handling his job as Mayor? Highest Lowest Approve Approve Aug 18 Jul 19 Jun 22 May 11 Mar 30 Feb 6 Jul 2 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2002 2003 Approve 64 60 55 47 46 65 31 Disapprove 26 30 36 41 41 6 60 DK/NA 10 10 10 12 12 29 8 3. (If registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Gifford Miller, Fernando Ferrer, C. Virginia Fields, and Anthony Weiner for whom would you vote? 3a. If undecided: Well as of today, do you lean more towards Miller, Ferrer, Fields, or Weiner? Includes Leaners. LIKELY VOTERS WITH LEANERS................... Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Hisp Miller 17% 19% 15% 26% 7% 10% Ferrer 33 37 30 30 24 63 Fields 17 15 18 7 37 4 Weiner 16 15 17 23 9 12 SMONE ELSE 1 - 2 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE - - - - - - DK/NA 16 14 18 14 21 10 Brnx Kngs Man Qns Miller 3% 17% 23% 15% Ferrer 51 27 34 29 Fields 33 12 19 12 Weiner 8 23 8 21 SMONE ELSE 2 2 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE - - - - DK/NA 2 20 16 21 3. (If registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Gifford Miller, Fernando Ferrer, C. Virginia Fields, and Anthony Weiner for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMOCRATS...................... Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Hisp Miller 10% 14% 8% 16% 5% 4% Ferrer 29 33 26 22 22 61 Fields 13 11 14 6 29 4 Weiner 11 13 9 19 5 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 4 3 3 4 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 4 5 5 4 6 DK/NA 29 21 34 29 31 20 Brnx Kngs Man Qns Miller 3% 11% 14% 8% Ferrer 40 23 27 31 Fields 23 12 16 8 Weiner 4 16 6 13 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 4 2 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 4 5 5 DK/NA 23 30 29 32 TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Gifford Miller, Fernando Ferrer, C. Virginia Fields, and Anthony Weiner, for whom would you vote? (na = not asked) REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.................................. Aug 18 Jul 19 Jun 22 May 11 Mar 30 Mar 2 Jan 19 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 Miller 10 15 12 11 10 12 12 Ferrer 29 33 31 27 36 40 31 Fields 13 16 19 23 21 14 15 Barron na na na na na na 5 Weiner 11 11 12 13 11 12 10 Thompson na na na na na na na SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 DK/NA 29 18 18 21 19 20 24 3b. (If candidate choice q3) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? LIKELY VOTERS ..................... Candidate Choice Q3........ Tot GM FF CVF AW Made up 48% 49% 50% 50% 41% Might change 51 51 50 50 55 DK/NA 1 - - - 4 4. If the candidate you support loses in the Democratic primary for Mayor, who would you vote for in the general election for Mayor in November -- Michael Bloomberg or the Democratic primary winner? LIKELY VOTERS ..................... Candidate Choice Q3........ Tot GM FF CVF AW Bloomberg 44% 37% 37% 33% 61% Primary winner 40 46 50 52 25 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 4 - DK/NA 15 14 11 11 14 5. From what you know about the four Democratic candidates running for Mayor, would you say there are major differences, minor differences, or no differences at all between them on the issues? LIKELY VOTERS ............................... Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Hisp Major diff 27% 22% 31% 21% 31% 33% Minor diff 55 61 51 64 54 40 No diff 8 11 6 6 8 17 DK/NA 9 5 12 8 8 10 Brnx Kngs Man Qns Major diff 36% 31% 18% 28% Minor diff 50 48 68 53 No diff 7 9 7 9 DK/NA 8 13 7 9 6. When the Democratic party nominates its candidate for mayor, which quality do you think should be more important? A) The candidate's ability to defeat Michael Bloomberg. -or- B) The candidate's views on the issues. LIKELY VOTERS ............................... Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Hisp A) Ability to win 12% 13% 11% 15% 10% 12% B) Views on issues 83 83 83 81 83 83 DK/NA 5 3 6 4 6 5 Brnx Kngs Man Qns A) Ability to win 13% 11% 12% 11% B) Views on issues 86 84 81 84 DK/NA 2 5 7 5 7. As you may know, a Democratic primary runoff for Mayor will be held between the top two candidates if no candidate wins 40 percent of the vote. Which comes closer to your point of view? A) A Democratic primary runoff would help the Democrats chances of beating Bloomberg because there will be more focus on the Democratic candidates. -or- B) A Democratic primary runoff would hurt the Democrats chances of beating Bloomberg because they are likely to end up in a divisive battle. LIKELY VOTERS ............................... Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Hisp A)Helps 41% 38% 43% 33% 47% 45% B)Hurts 45 51 41 53 40 43 DK/NA 14 12 16 14 14 12 Brnx Kngs Man Qns A)Helps 45% 42% 39% 37% B)Hurts 44 41 49 45 DK/NA 11 16 12 18 8. Is your opinion of Gifford Miller favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS ............................... Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Hisp Favorable 21% 23% 19% 28% 14% 15% Unfavorable 13 17 9 12 12 19 Mixed 19 20 19 24 18 8 Hvn't hrd enough 46 38 52 34 55 55 REFUSED 1 2 1 2 - 3 Brnx Kngs Man Qns Favorable 10% 27% 23% 16% Unfavorable 12 12 13 15 Mixed 19 17 23 18 Hvn't hrd enough 57 44 40 50 REFUSED 2 - 2 1 9. Is your opinion of Fernando Ferrer favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS ............................... Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Hisp Favorable 32% 34% 30% 34% 21% 53% Unfavorable 23 22 23 24 27 11 Mixed 31 30 32 30 36 24 Hvn't hrd enough 12 11 13 10 15 11 REFUSED 1 2 1 2 1 1 Brnx Kngs Man Qns Favorable 36% 27% 35% 28% Unfavorable 23 22 24 24 Mixed 33 32 30 34 Hvn't hrd enough 8 19 10 11 REFUSED - - 1 3 10. Is your opinion of C. Virginia Fields favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her? LIKELY VOTERS ............................... Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Hisp Favorable 23% 29% 19% 16% 36% 17% Unfavorable 21 21 21 26 8 26 Mixed 17 17 18 18 25 5 Hvn't hrd enough 37 32 41 38 30 51 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 Brnx Kngs Man Qns Favorable 24% 17% 31% 23% Unfavorable 19 22 22 19 Mixed 18 14 20 19 Hvn't hrd enough 35 47 25 37 REFUSED 4 - 1 2 11. Is your opinion of Anthony Weiner favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS ............................... Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Hisp Favorable 24% 27% 23% 35% 14% 17% Unfavorable 8 9 6 6 8 7 Mixed 13 14 13 13 13 13 Hvn't hrd enough 53 49 56 44 65 62 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 - Brnx Kngs Man Qns Favorable 12% 28% 17% 34% Unfavorable 8 7 9 6 Mixed 17 12 11 16 Hvn't hrd enough 63 51 61 43 REFUSED - - 2 2 12. Is your opinion of Michael Bloomberg favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS ............................... Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Hisp Favorable 50% 55% 46% 53% 48% 47% Unfavorable 25 19 29 20 24 36 Mixed 23 26 21 26 22 16 Hvn't hrd enough 1 - 2 - 3 - REFUSED 1 - 2 1 2 1 Brnx Kngs Man Qns Favorable 39% 49% 51% 55% Unfavorable 40 26 19 20 Mixed 19 22 27 25 Hvn't hrd enough - 2 1 - REFUSED 3 1 2 - 13. Do you think Mayor Bloomberg favors Manhattan over the outer boroughs or gives all areas of the city equal attention? LIKELY VOTERS ............................... Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Hisp Favors Manhattan 49% 48% 50% 39% 50% 67% Equal attention 43 46 40 51 41 29 DK/NA 9 6 10 9 9 4 Brnx Kngs Man Qns Favors Manhattan 59% 54% 38% 50% Equal attention 34 34 50 48 DK/NA 7 13 11 2 14. (If registered Democrat)If the Democratic primary for Public Advocate were being held today and the candidates were Betsy Gotbaum, Norman Siegal, and Andrew Rasiej for whom would you vote? 14a. If undecided: Well as of today, do you lean more towards Gotbaum, Siegal, or Rasiej? Includes Leaners. LIKELY VOTERS WITH LEANERS................... Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Hisp Gotbaum 38% 33% 43% 48% 38% 24% Siegal 25 31 20 25 22 19 Rasiej 6 7 6 5 6 12 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 0 1 - 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 1 2 4 DK/NA 28 26 29 20 32 36 Brnx Kngs Man Qns Gotbaum 38% 36% 39% 41% Siegal 26 23 27 23 Rasiej 7 6 2 11 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 1 1 DK/NA 24 33 30 21 15. (If Manhattan Democrat)If the Democratic primary for Manhattan District Attorney were being held today and the candidates were Leslie Crocker Snyder and Robert Morgenthau, for whom would you vote? 15a. If undecided: Well as of today, do you lean more towards Snyder or Morgenthau? Includes Leaners. LIKELY VOTERS WITH LEANERS Tot Snyder 16% Morgenthau 61 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - DK/NA 23
