September 7, 2005 - Ferrer No Closer To 40% In NYC Dem Primary, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Weiner Edges Up As Likely Second Place Finisher Just one week before the New York City Democratic primary for Mayor, Fernando Ferrer has gained no ground in his quest to reach 40 percent and avoid a runoff, but he still leads the pack with 32 percent among likely Democratic primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. U.S. Rep. Anthony Weiner has moved up to second place, with 21 percent, followed by City Council Speaker Gifford Miller at 17 percent and Manhattan Borough President C. Virginia Fields with 13 percent. This compares to August 18 results of 33 percent for Ferrer, 17 percent each for Miller and Fields and 16 percent for Weiner, in a poll of likely Democratic primary voters by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. In this latest survey, 15 percent of likely voters remain undecided and 42 percent say they still might change their mind before the September 13 primary. "Good news for Fernando Ferrer: He's still ahead. And there might be an added surge in the Latino turnout. Bad news for Ferrer: His support seems static. And runoffs can be poison," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Congressman Weiner's campaign is the peppiest, and it seems to be working. He's the only Democratic contender showing any momentum." "The big winner here, Mayor Michael Bloomberg, is not in this poll, but he benefits if there is a divisive and costly Democratic primary runoff," Carroll added. From August 30 - September 5, Quinnipiac University surveyed 572 New York City likely Democratic primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida and nationwide as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201 1. (If registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Gifford Miller, Fernando Ferrer, C. Virginia Fields, and Anthony Weiner for whom would you vote? 1a. If undecided: Well as of today, do you lean more towards Miller, Ferrer, Fields, or Weiner? * This table includes Leaners LIKELY VOTERS WITH LEANERS.................. Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Hisp Miller 17% 17% 17% 26% 9% 7% Ferrer 32 37 27 20 31 65 Fields 13 10 15 4 30 8 Weiner 21 25 18 36 7 10 SMONE ELSE 2 2 2 2 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE - - - - - - DK/NA 15 9 20 11 20 8 Brnx Kngs Man Qns Miller 6% 18% 22% 19% Ferrer 64 27 23 26 Fields 9 13 15 15 Weiner 6 23 22 26 SMONE ELSE 2 5 1 - WLDN'T VOTE - - - - DK/NA 14 15 17 14 TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Gifford Miller, Fernando Ferrer, C. Virginia Fields, and Anthony Weiner for whom would you vote? If undecided: Well as of today, do you lean more towards Miller, Ferrer, Fields, or Weiner? Includes Leaners. LIKELY VOTERS WITH LEANERS Sep 7 Aug 18 2005 2005 Miller 17 17 Ferrer 32 33 Fields 13 17 Weiner 21 16 SMONE ELSE 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE - - DK/NA 15 16 2. (If candidate choice Q1)Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? LIKELY VOTERS..................... Cand choice Q1 ........... Tot GM FF CVF AW Made up 56% 50% 61% 47% 62% Might change 42 49 38 51 37 DK/NA 2 2 1 2 1
