October 25, 2005 - Bloomberg Keeps 31-Point Lead After Terror Alert, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Few Say Mayor Has Too Many Commercials Even after calling off the subway terror alert, Republican Mayor Michael Bloomberg still leads Democratic challenger Fernando Ferrer 61 - 30 percent among New York City likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Conservative candidate Thomas Ognibene gets 2 percent and 7 percent are undecided. Mayor Bloomberg had opened a 60 - 32 percent lead over Ferrer in an October 12 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, conducted just as the Mayor announced a major alert about possible terrorism in the subways. In this latest survey, conducted one week after the Mayor called off the alert, Bloomberg leads Ferrer 77 - 18 percent among white likely voters, and by a narrow 48 - 44 percent among black likely voters, while Hispanic likely voters back Ferrer 48 - 43 percent. "Mayor Bloomberg's domination persists. Some politicians think lots of black voters will 'come home' to the Democratic line and lots of Hispanic voters will pull the lever for the Hispanic candidate. But, with two weeks until Election Day, it's shaping up as a blow-out to end all blow-outs," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Their mind is made up, 92 percent of Bloomberg supporters and 85 percent of Ferrer voters say." By a 62 - 11 percent margin, New York City likely voters have a favorable opinion of Bloomberg, with 23 percent mixed. Ferrer gets a 30 - 27 percent favorability, with 34 percent mixed and 8 percent who say they haven't heard enough to form an opinion. Bloomberg's personal wealth gives him an unfair advantage in the mayoral race, voters say 51 - 47 percent. Among the 91 percent of likely voters who have seen any of Bloomberg's TV commercials, 58 percent say they are "useful," while 35 percent say they are "not useful." Only 35 percent of voters who have seen Bloomberg commercials, say he has "too many," with 56 percent who say the number is "about right." By a 58 - 37 percent margin, voters agree with Ferrer's position that there are "two New Yorks," one for the rich and one for the poor. But by a narrow 48 - 45 percent margin, voters say that Ferrer is being "divisive" by saying there are two New Yorks. White voters say 58 - 36 percent that it is divisive, while black voters say 52 - 37 percent that it is not divisive and Hispanic voters say 51 - 41 percent that it is not divisive. The 80 percent of voters who have seen Ferrer TV commercials split 47 - 46 percent on whether they are "useful" or "not useful." Among people who have seen Ferrer commercials, only 5 percent say there are "too many," with 42 percent who say "too few," and 45 percent who say "about right." "A backlash from a sense of 'over-kill' that some politicians looked for isn't there. Bloomberg ads crowd TV screens but, just like in Goldilocks, voters think their daily helping of Bloomberg porridge is just about right," Carroll said. "Is the city divided between haves and have-nots? New Yorkers think so. Is Ferrer wrong in saying so? The verdict is split." From October 18 - 23, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,413 New York City registered voters. The survey includes 723 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida and nationwide as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201 1. If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Fernando Ferrer the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, and Thomas Ognibene the Conservative Party candidate, for whom would you vote? If undecided: Well as of today, do you lean more towards Ferrer, Bloomberg or Ognibene? This table includes Leaners Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Ferrer 30% 4% 42% 19% 23% 35% Bloomberg 61 89 52 71 66 57 Ognibene 2 6 1 2 4 1 SMONE ELSE - - - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE - - - - - - DK/NA 7 1 4 7 7 7 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Ferrer 38% 34% 31% 25% 20% Bloomberg 48 62 62 65 67 Ognibene 3 - 1 4 7 SMONE ELSE - - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE - - - - - DK/NA 11 4 6 7 6 Wht Blk Hisp Ferrer 18% 44% 48% Bloomberg 77 48 43 Ognibene 2 1 1 SMONE ELSE - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE - - - DK/NA 3 7 8 TREND: If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Fernando Ferrer the Democrat, Michael Bloomberg the Republican, and Thomas Ognibene, the Conservative Party candidate, for whom would you vote? If undecided: Well as of today, do you lean more towards Ferrer, Bloomberg or Ognibene? * This table includes leaners. n/a = not asked LIKELY VOTERS WITH LEANERS Oct 25 Oct 12 Sep 21 2005 2005 2005 Ferrer 30 32 38 Bloomberg 61 60 52 Ognibene 2 1 n/a SMONE ELSE - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE - - - DK/NA 7 7 9 1b. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? Cand Choice Tot FF MB Made up 89% 85% 92% Might change 10 15 6 DK/NA 1 1 1 2. Is your opinion of Michael Bloomberg favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 62% 80% 56% 68% 64% 60% Unfavorable 11 4 12 10 10 12 Mixed 23 15 26 19 23 24 Hvn't hrd enough 3 1 3 2 1 3 REFUSED 2 - 2 1 2 1 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Favorable 61% 62% 62% 61% 59% Unfavorable 11 13 8 9 23 Mixed 22 22 25 26 18 Hvn't hrd enough 1 2 5 2 - REFUSED 5 1 - 2 - Wht Blk Hisp Favorable 71% 59% 46% Unfavorable 6 8 22 Mixed 21 27 25 Hvn't hrd enough 1 4 6 REFUSED - 2 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Michael Bloomberg favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Oct 25 Oct 12 Sep 21 Nov 5 Oct 24 2005 2005 2005 2001 2001 Favorable 62 58 54 39 35 Unfavorable 11 15 16 20 20 Mixed 23 26 27 30 28 Hvn't hrd enough 3 1 1 9 15 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 2 3. Is your opinion of Fernando Ferrer favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 30% 7% 39% 23% 28% 31% Unfavorable 27 55 18 31 30 24 Mixed 34 30 34 33 32 35 Hvn't hrd enough 8 6 7 11 8 8 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 3 1 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Favorable 42% 30% 28% 25% 19% Unfavorable 22 29 28 23 38 Mixed 29 31 35 38 35 Hvn't hrd enough 3 7 8 12 8 REFUSED 5 2 - 2 - Wht Blk Hisp Favorable 17% 42% 50% Unfavorable 36 14 14 Mixed 37 31 29 Hvn't hrd enough 8 11 4 REFUSED 1 2 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Fernando Ferrer favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS ........ Oct 25 Oct 12 Sep 21 2005 2005 2005 Favorable 30 29 36 Unfavorable 27 24 21 Mixed 34 37 30 Hvn't hrd enough 8 9 11 REFUSED 2 1 2 4. Is your opinion of Thomas Ognibene favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 5% 11% 4% 4% 5% 5% Unfavorable 9 11 9 7 10 8 Mixed 6 5 5 10 7 6 Hvn't hrd enough 79 72 81 78 76 81 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 3 - Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Favorable 4% 6% 5% 4% 4% Unfavorable 3 12 10 8 9 Mixed 5 6 4 9 6 Hvn't hrd enough 86 75 81 78 77 REFUSED 1 1 - 2 4 Wht Blk Hisp Favorable 4% 6% 7% Unfavorable 11 7 6 Mixed 7 4 7 Hvn't hrd enough 77 83 79 REFUSED 1 - 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Thomas Ognibene favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS Oct 25 Oct 12 2005 2005 Favorable 5 5 Unfavorable 9 11 Mixed 6 5 Hvn't hrd enough 79 78 REFUSED 1 1 5. Do you think Michael Bloomberg's personal wealth gives him an unfair advantage in the mayoral race or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 51% 26% 59% 46% 55% 48% No 47 74 38 54 43 50 DK/NA 2 - 3 1 2 3 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Yes 56% 51% 44% 57% 43% No 39 47 55 41 53 DK/NA 5 1 2 2 4 Wht Blk Hisp Yes 42% 56% 62% No 56 39 38 DK/NA 2 5 - 6. Have you seen any of Michael Bloomberg's television commercials for this year's election for mayor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 91% 87% 93% 87% 90% 92% No 9 13 7 12 9 8 DK/NA - - - 1 1 - Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Yes 95% 89% 88% 94% 91% No 5 11 11 5 9 DK/NA - - - - - Wht Blk Hisp Yes 88% 97% 95% No 12 3 5 DK/NA 1 - - 7. (If 'yes' q6)From what you have seen of Michael Bloomberg's television commercials, have you found the information provided useful or not useful? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Useful 58% 76% 54% 60% 54% 61% Not useful 35 20 38 35 37 33 DK/NA 7 4 8 5 9 6 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Useful 70% 57% 49% 62% 58% Not useful 22 37 45 31 35 DK/NA 9 7 7 7 7 Wht Blk Hisp Useful 59% 65% 57% Not useful 34 29 35 DK/NA 7 6 8 8. (If 'yes' q6)Do you think Michael Bloomberg has too many commercials on TV, too few commercials on TV, or about the right amount? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Too many 35% 19% 40% 31% 40% 31% Too few 3 2 2 2 3 3 About right 56 75 51 59 51 60 DK/NA 6 4 6 7 6 6 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Too many 33% 36% 37% 34% 31% Too few 4 2 2 3 4 About right 57 58 53 56 62 Wht Blk Hisp Too many 32% 33% 44% Too few 2 3 2 About right 59 58 51 DK/NA 7 6 2 9. Fernando Ferrer has said that there are two New Yorks - One for the rich and one for the poor. Do you agree or disagree? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Agree 58% 22% 70% 49% 54% 61% Disagree 37 74 26 47 42 34 DK/NA 5 4 4 4 4 5 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Agree 57% 61% 61% 59% 33% Disagree 35 34 35 38 64 DK/NA 9 5 4 3 2 Wht Blk Hisp Agree 48% 71% 66% Disagree 48 23 30 DK/NA 4 6 4 10. Do you think by saying there are two New Yorks that Fernando Ferrer is being divisive or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 48% 83% 39% 51% 51% 46% No 45 15 54 43 43 46 DK/NA 7 2 7 5 6 7 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Yes 44% 45% 47% 53% 61% No 43 50 49 40 32 DK/NA 13 5 4 8 8 Wht Blk Hisp Yes 58% 37% 41% No 36 52 51 DK/NA 6 11 8 11. Have you seen any of Fernando Ferrer's television commercials for this year's election for mayor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 80% 79% 81% 77% 79% 81% No 19 20 19 22 21 18 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Yes 93% 75% 74% 80% 86% No 7 24 24 18 12 DK/NA - 1 1 1 1 Wht Blk Hisp Yes 76% 84% 86% No 23 15 13 DK/NA 1 1 1 12. (If 'yes' q11)From what you have seen of Fernando Ferrer's television commercials, have you found the information provided useful or not useful? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Useful 47% 35% 53% 42% 39% 52% NOT useful 46 63 39 54 51 42 DK/NA 7 2 8 5 9 6 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Useful 51% 52% 45% 44% 34% NOT useful 39 43 50 46 56 DK/NA 10 5 5 10 10 Wht Blk Hisp Useful 34% 60% 65% NOT useful 61 35 26 DK/NA 6 6 9 13. (If 'yes' q11)Do you think Fernando Ferrer has too many commercials on TV, too few commercials on TV, or about the right amount? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Too many 5% 9% 3% 6% 4% 6% Too few 42 23 49 37 47 39 About right 45 54 42 48 39 49 DK/NA 8 14 6 8 10 7 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Too many 7% 5% 4% 5% 1% Too few 40 43 40 45 36 About right 43 47 46 41 54 DK/NA 9 5 10 8 9 Wht Blk Hisp Too many 8% 1% 4% Too few 35 53 43 About right 45 43 48 DK/NA 12 4 6
