August 6, 2008 - New York Gov Paterson Rides High On Budget Crisis, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Back Millionaire's Tax 4 - 1 Word format New York State voters approve 64 - 14 percent of the job Gov. David Paterson is doing, his highest mark so far, and believe 54 - 22 percent that he has the leadership ability to solve the state's budget problems, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to a 56 - 17 percent approval rating for Gov. Paterson in a June 12 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Voters agree 86 - 8 percent with Paterson that New York State has a budget crisis. In a separate question, 95 percent say the state's budget problems are "very serious" or "somewhat serious." By a 78 - 18 percent margin voters support raising the state income tax on people who make more than $1 million a year. Even Republicans support this tax hike 56 - 36 percent. On other budget questions: Voters prefer 56 - 32 percent cutting services rather than raising taxes; If they must raise taxes, voters prefer 58 - 32 percent raising the state sales tax rather than the state income tax; "Tough talk pays politically. Gov. Paterson's job approval rating bounces up and he's winning the opinion war on the state's budget troubles. With hardly a dissenting voice, New Yorkers think the state is in a budget crisis," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Cut services before you raise taxes, voters tell Albany. If you do have to raise taxes, raise the sales tax before the income tax. That old favorite, the millionaire's tax? A good idea, says a big majority." Zero percent of voters say New York State's economy is "excellent," with 12 percent who say "good," 48 percent who say "not so good," and 38 percent who say "poor." This is the lowest rating since Quinnipiac University began asking the question in 2001. Only 17 percent say the state economy will improve in the next year, while 42 percent say it will get worse and 36 percent say it will stay the same. New York State voters say 57 - 26 percent that the Governor and State Legislature will be able to work together to solve the state's budget problems. But voters say 74 - 18 percent that legislators will wait until after the November elections, rather than act this month, to address the budget problems. Voters disapprove 55 - 26 percent of the job the State Legislature is doing, with consistent results across the political spectrum. And voters say 50 - 39 percent that "special interests" will have the political clout to protect their members from layoffs. "Does the Legislature have the political gumption to act decisively before Election Day? A lot of New Yorkers don't think so. For good measure, they don't think much of the way the Legislature does its job," Carroll added. "And a lot are skeptical about the Legislature's ability to stand up to public employee union pressure." Asked who they would like to see elected Governor in 2010: 28 percent pick former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani; 26 percent pick New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg; 24 percent pick Paterson; 14 percent pick Attorney General Andrew Cuomo. "Maybe people are starting to believe Mayor Bloomberg when he says he doesn't want to be Governor. Giuliani edges ahead of him in 2010 speculation," Carroll said. From July 31 - August 4, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,409 New York State voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his job as Governor? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Approve 64% 58% 66% 66% 64% 65% 67% 67% 66% Disapprove 14 20 13 12 17 12 14 12 13 DK/NA 22 22 21 22 19 24 19 22 20 UpState.... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 76% 70% 71% 59% 60% Disapprove 7 13 12 14 18 DK/NA 17 18 17 27 22 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his job as Governor? Aug 6 Jun 12 Apr 17 2008 2008 2008 Approve 64 56 50 Disapprove 14 17 10 DK/NA 22 27 39 8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hillary Clinton is handling her job as United States Senator? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Approve 66% 38% 83% 64% 59% 71% 60% 83% 69% Disapprove 29 55 13 29 35 24 35 12 26 DK/NA 5 7 3 7 6 5 6 6 6 UpState.... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 71% 58% 60% 75% 63% Disapprove 25 36 34 20 33 DK/NA 4 6 6 5 4 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hillary Clinton is handling her job as United States Senator? Highest Lowest Approve Approve Aug 6 Jun 12 Apr 17 Mar 24 Dec 12 Dec 14 Feb 14 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2006 2001 Approve 66 66 62 64 64 72 38 Disapprove 29 28 31 29 29 23 30 DK/NA 5 5 8 7 7 5 33 9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Approve 61% 38% 75% 62% 60% 62% 60% 68% 66% Disapprove 23 42 11 21 28 18 26 14 21 DK/NA 16 19 14 16 12 20 15 18 13 UpState.... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 61% 52% 53% 67% 67% Disapprove 25 28 27 15 25 DK/NA 15 20 20 17 8 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator? * also 69% on 10/02/01 Highest Lowest Approve Approve Aug 6 Jun 12 Apr 17 Mar 24 Dec 12 Dec 8 Apr 15 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2004* 1999 Approve 61 66 65 66 59 69 51 Disapprove 23 21 18 18 22 16 22 DK/NA 16 14 17 16 19 15 28 11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Approve 26% 27% 26% 28% 23% 29% 24% 31% 28% Disapprove 55 59 52 57 61 50 59 44 57 DK/NA 18 13 22 15 16 21 17 25 15 UpState.... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 31% 24% 25% 28% 26% Disapprove 59 61 61 50 52 DK/NA 10 15 14 22 22 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? * also 26% 8/11/2004 Highest Lowest Approve Approve Aug 6 Jun 12 Apr 17 Oct 2 Jul 31 Apr 4 Aug 6 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2008 * Approve 26 29 32 30 32 34 26 Disapprove 55 55 51 52 49 43 55 DK/NA 18 16 17 18 19 23 18 12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Thomas DiNapoli is handling his job as State Comptroller? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Approve 25% 27% 26% 22% 28% 22% 25% 31% 30% Disapprove 16 18 15 15 16 15 14 18 20 DK/NA 59 55 59 62 56 63 60 51 50 UpState.... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 34% 26% 27% 21% 26% Disapprove 14 13 14 17 18 DK/NA 52 61 59 62 56 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Thomas DiNapoli is handling his job as State Comptroller? Highest Lowest Approve Approve Aug 6 Jun 12 Apr 17 Oct 2 Jul 31 Jul 31 Apr 4 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 Approve 25 30 27 30 34 34 24 Disapprove 16 13 16 12 15 15 13 DK/NA 59 57 57 58 51 51 63 13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State Attorney General? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Approve 68% 61% 76% 64% 67% 69% 69% 71% 74% Disapprove 13 21 8 13 17 9 12 13 11 DK/NA 19 18 16 22 15 22 19 17 15 UpState.... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 83% 66% 69% 69% 65% Disapprove 2 14 12 11 17 DK/NA 15 20 19 20 18 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State Attorney General? Highest Lowest Approve Approve Aug 6 Jun 12 Apr 17 Mar 24 Oct 2 Jun 12 Feb 13 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2008 2007 Approve 68 69 65 59 62 69 42 Disapprove 13 15 13 12 17 15 16 DK/NA 19 17 21 30 21 17 42 14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sheldon Silver is handling his job as State Assembly Speaker? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Approve 31% 24% 39% 25% 29% 32% 28% 35% 36% Disapprove 31 43 21 38 41 24 37 14 33 DK/NA 38 33 40 37 30 45 35 50 31 UpState.... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 28% 26% 27% 39% 25% Disapprove 34 36 35 27 32 DK/NA 39 38 38 34 43 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sheldon Silver is handling his job as State Assembly Speaker? Highest Lowest Approve Approve Aug 6 Jun 12 Apr 17 Oct 2 Jul 31 Oct 2 Aug 11 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2003 2004 Approve 31 32 34 29 33 35 26 Disapprove 31 31 31 35 35 26 33 DK/NA 38 37 35 36 32 39 41 15. Now I'm going to name four people who might run for Governor in 2010. After I Read all four names, please tell me which one you would most like to see elected Governor in 2010. Here are the choices: Governor David Paterson, State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, or former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Paterson 24% 14% 30% 26% 26% 23% 22% 43% 25% Cuomo 14 8 20 10 13 15 14 20 19 Bloomberg 26 17 30 30 27 26 26 21 25 Giuliani 28 56 13 29 30 27 32 8 23 DK/NA 7 6 6 5 5 8 6 9 7 UpState.... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Paterson 36% 30% 31% 23% 13% Cuomo 14 15 15 15 10 Bloomberg 17 15 15 33 39 Giuliani 25 32 31 22 33 DK/NA 8 7 7 7 5 TREND: Now I'm going to name four people who might run for Governor in 2010. After I read all four names, please tell me which one you would most like to see elected Governor in 2010. Here are the choices: Governor David Paterson, State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, or former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani? Aug 6 Jun 12 Apr 17 Mar 20 2008 2008 2008 2008 Paterson 24 23 17 27 Cuomo 14 15 13 11 Bloomberg 26 30 32 29 Giuliani 28 26 30 25 DK/NA 7 6 7 8 16. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New York State today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Very satisfied 3% 2% 3% 4% 2% 3% 2% 5% 1% Smwht satisfied 34 34 35 33 36 32 34 37 37 Smwht dissatisfied 38 40 36 41 38 38 39 30 36 Very dissatisfied 25 24 25 23 23 26 24 26 25 DK/NA 1 - 1 - 1 1 1 2 - UpState.... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Very satisfied 1% 3% 2% 3% 3% Smwht satisfied 28 28 28 40 37 Smwht dissatisfied 36 39 38 34 44 Very dissatisfied 35 31 31 21 17 DK/NA 1 - - 2 - TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New York State today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? Aug 6 Jun 12 Apr 17 Mar 24 Dec 12 May 17 Mar 29 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2006 2006 Very satisfied 3 3 3 3 5 3 3 Somewhat satisfied 34 37 38 34 44 36 42 Somewhat dissat 38 34 33 37 33 35 34 Very dissatisfied 25 25 24 23 18 26 20 DK/NA 1 1 2 2 1 - 1 17. As you may know, Democrats hold all statewide offices and control the Assembly, while Republicans control the State Senate. Would you like to see the State Senate stay Republican controlled or would you like to see the Democrats take control of the State Senate? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Republican 32% 82% 8% 31% 42% 24% 40% 7% 30% Democrats 52 8 84 42 43 59 42 88 55 DK/NA 16 10 8 27 15 17 18 5 15 UpState.... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Republican 32% 42% 40% 19% 37% Democrats 51 38 40 71 45 DK/NA 17 20 20 10 18 TREND: As you may know, Democrats hold all statewide offices and control the Assembly, while Republicans control the State Senate. Would you like to see the State Senate stay Republican controlled or would you like to see the Democrats take control of the State Senate? Aug 6 Jun 12 2008 2008 Republican 32 35 Democrat 52 51 DK/NA 16 14 18. Some Democrats complain that Governor Paterson isn't committed to helping his party gain control of the State Senate. Do you think Governor Paterson is committed to helping elect a Democratic State Senate or not? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Yes 34% 29% 38% 32% 35% 34% 32% 49% 32% No 20 26 19 16 22 18 20 18 18 DK/NA 46 45 43 52 43 48 48 33 50 UpState.... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Yes 44% 31% 33% 36% 34% No 17 22 21 18 19 DK/NA 39 46 45 46 48 26. Would you describe the state of New York State's economy these days as: Excellent, good, not so good, or poor? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Excellent - 2% - - 1% - - - - Good 12 14 11 13 15 10 12 11 10 Not so good 48 56 49 43 46 50 49 53 48 Poor 38 26 39 42 37 38 37 31 41 DK/NA 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 UpState.... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Excellent 5% - 1% - - Good 8 11 10 15 12 Not so good 40 46 45 47 58 Poor 45 43 44 36 30 DK/NA 2 - 1 3 - TREND: Would you describe the state of New York State's economy these days as: Excellent, good, not so good, or poor? Aug 6 Jun 12 Apr 17 Mar 29 Oct 2 Feb 12 Dec 18 2008 2008 2008 2006 2003 2003 2002 Excellent - - 1 2 1 1 1 Good 12 21 20 35 18 19 25 Not so good 48 48 53 40 47 47 51 Poor 38 28 25 22 33 33 23 DK/NA 1 3 1 2 1 - 1 27. During the next 12 months, do you think the economic conditions in New York State will get better, get worse, or stay about the same? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Get better 17% 20% 16% 17% 17% 16% 16% 25% 13% Get worse 42 37 42 43 42 41 42 31 51 Stay the same 36 39 36 35 37 36 37 35 33 DK/NA 5 4 6 5 4 7 5 9 3 UpState.... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Get better 28% 14% 16% 15% 20% Get worse 33 40 39 45 40 Stay the same 36 40 39 32 37 DK/NA 3 6 5 7 3 TREND: During the next 12 months, do you think the economic conditions in New York State will get better, get worse, or stay about the same? Aug 6 Jun 12 Mar 29 Oct 2 Sep 26 Jan 23 Nov 15 2008 2008 2006 2003 2002 2002 2001 Get better 17 14 15 28 32 42 36 Get worse 42 46 24 22 19 13 22 Stay the same 36 36 58 47 42 42 37 DK/NA 5 4 4 3 8 3 4 31. Do you think Eliot Spitzer should be charged with a crime or is resigning as Governor punishment enough? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Charged with crime 40% 52% 34% 39% 40% 40% 44% 27% 40% Resigning enough 54 41 62 52 54 54 50 68 56 DK/NA 6 6 4 8 6 6 6 5 4 UpState.... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Charged with crime 45% 46% 46% 33% 40% Resigning enough 52 47 48 60 55 DK/NA 3 7 6 7 5 TREND: Do you think Eliot Spitzer should be charged with a crime or is resigning as Governor punishment enough? Aug 6 Jun 12 Mar 20 2008 2008 2008 Charged with crime 40 39 48 Resigning is enough 54 55 40 DK/NA 6 6 11 32. Do you think the current state investigation commission is competent to investigate Spitzer? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Yes 44% 47% 47% 40% 45% 43% 43% 41% 45% No 29 29 29 29 31 27 28 36 34 DK/NA 27 25 25 31 24 29 29 23 21 UpState.... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Yes 52% 47% 48% 41% 41% No 27 26 26 31 31 DK/NA 21 27 26 28 28 33. How serious do you think New York State's budget problems are - very serious, somewhat serious, not too serious, or not at all serious? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Very serious 63% 57% 62% 66% 62% 64% 61% 72% 61% Smwht serious 32 39 33 28 32 32 33 24 36 Not too serious 2 2 1 3 3 1 2 1 1 Not at all serious 1 - 1 1 1 - - 2 1 DK/NA 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 2 1 UpState.... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Very serious 69% 67% 67% 58% 60% Smwht serious 27 28 28 36 36 Not too serious 1 1 1 2 4 Not at all serious 1 - - 2 - DK/NA 2 4 4 2 - TREND: How serious do you think New York State's budget problems are - very serious, somewhat serious, not too serious, or not at all serious? Aug 6 Nov 6 Feb 12 Dec 18 2008 2003 2003 2002 Very serious 63 62 57 48 Smwht serious 32 30 37 44 Not too serious 2 5 3 5 Not at all serious 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 2 1 1 3 34. To balance the state budget, if you had to choose, would you prefer -- Raising taxes or cutting government programs and services? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Raising taxes 32% 13% 46% 29% 27% 37% 28% 47% 35% Cutting services 56 82 38 60 65 48 63 38 56 DK/NA 12 5 15 11 8 15 10 15 9 UpState.... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Raising taxes 24% 22% 23% 48% 26% Cutting services 61 66 65 39 65 DK/NA 15 12 12 13 9 35. If a tax increase is needed, which would you prefer -- Raising the state sales tax or raising the state income tax? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds State sales tax 58% 66% 51% 61% 61% 56% 61% 58% 57% State income tax 32 23 39 30 30 33 31 28 33 DK/NA 10 11 9 9 9 11 8 14 9 UpState.... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub State sales tax 54% 59% 58% 52% 68% State income tax 37 31 32 37 24 DK/NA 9 10 10 11 7 36. There is a proposal to raise the state income tax paid by people who earn more than a million dollars a year. Do you support or oppose this proposal? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Support 78% 56% 91% 76% 72% 83% 76% 88% 85% Oppose 18 36 7 21 25 13 20 8 14 DK/NA 4 8 3 3 3 4 4 4 2 UpState.... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Support 79% 75% 76% 82% 76% Oppose 18 19 19 16 21 DK/NA 3 6 5 3 3 37. Governor Paterson says New York State has a budget crisis. Do you agree or disagree? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Agree 86% 86% 84% 90% 84% 88% 89% 83% 92% Disagree 8 11 10 4 10 6 5 12 4 DK/NA 6 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 UpState.... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Agree 88% 92% 92% 78% 88% Disagree 10 3 4 15 5 DK/NA 2 5 4 7 6 38. Do you think Governor Paterson has the leadership ability to solve the state's budget problems? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Yes 54% 49% 58% 54% 56% 53% 53% 63% 57% No 22 32 19 21 23 21 22 17 22 DK/NA 24 19 23 25 21 26 25 21 21 UpState.... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Yes 66% 57% 59% 50% 51% No 17 18 18 26 25 DK/NA 17 25 24 24 23 39. Do you think Governor Paterson and the state legislature will be able to work together to solve the state's budget problems? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Yes 57% 50% 63% 56% 51% 62% 55% 71% 55% No 26 35 21 27 35 18 29 9 31 DK/NA 16 15 16 17 13 19 17 20 14 UpState.... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Yes 62% 54% 55% 58% 61% No 28 28 28 24 26 DK/NA 10 17 16 18 14 40. The Governor is calling the legislature into an emergency session on August 19th to deal with New York State's budget problems. Do you think legislators will take any real steps to solve the state's budget problems or will they delay action until after the elections in November? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Take steps 18% 19% 20% 15% 15% 20% 16% 26% 16% Delay action 74 75 71 78 76 73 76 64 75 DK/NA 8 6 8 7 9 8 8 11 9 UpState.... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Take steps 25% 16% 17% 20% 14% Delay action 70 75 75 72 78 DK/NA 5 9 8 8 8 41. Do you think the so-called "special interests" such as the teachers and state employee unions and health care industry have the political strength to protect their members against layoffs? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Yes 50% 56% 47% 48% 52% 47% 55% 32% 53% No 39 35 43 38 38 41 34 56 42 DK/NA 11 9 10 14 10 12 11 13 5 UpState.... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Yes 66% 53% 55% 42% 50% No 29 35 34 45 43 DK/NA 6 13 12 13 7 42. What is your impression of how well the redevelopment of lower Manhattan is going? Would you say very well, somewhat well, somewhat badly, or very badly? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Very well 6% 7% 7% 5% 7% 5% 5% 7% 5% Somewhat well 28 28 29 27 27 29 25 33 27 Somewhat badly 21 20 20 22 23 20 20 25 25 Very badly 11 5 15 11 11 11 10 13 12 DK/NA 34 40 29 34 33 35 40 22 30 UpState.... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Very well 5% 2% 3% 8% 10% Somewhat well 16 23 22 33 32 Somewhat badly 16 12 13 29 25 Very badly 3 3 3 19 14 DK/NA 61 60 60 12 19 TREND: What is your impression of how well the redevelopment of lower Manhattan is going? Would you say very well, somewhat well, somewhat badly or very badly? Aug 6 Jul 3 2008 2002 Very well 6 33 Somewhat well 28 39 Somewhat badly 21 7 Very badly 11 2 DK/NA 34 19 43. Who do you think is most to blame for continued problems and delays of Ground Zero development - The Port Authority, the city, or the state? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Port Authority 19% 14% 22% 18% 21% 16% 19% 17% 21% City 16 16 19 13 16 16 15 15 14 State 23 23 22 24 22 24 21 32 25 DK/NA 43 47 36 45 41 44 45 36 40 UpState.... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Port Authority 10% 11% 11% 26% 21% City 15 15 15 18 16 State 17 23 22 23 24 DK/NA 58 51 52 33 39
