August 7, 2008 - Blacks, Women Give Obama 21-Pt. Lead In New York, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Split Evenly On Iraq Troop Withdrawal Word format With commanding leads among blacks, women and younger voters, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama has a 57 - 36 percent likely voter lead over Arizona Sen. John McCain, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Sen. Obama gets 47 percent of white votes, to 45 percent for Sen. McCain. Black voters back the Democrat 93 - 2 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Obama also leads: 50 - 43 percent among men; 62 - 29 percent among women: 71 - 28 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old; 57 - 38 percent among voters 35 to 54; 50 - 38 percent among voters over age 55. Only 18 percent of Obama voters and 26 percent of McCain voters say they might change their mind before Election Day. Obama gets a 60 - 24 percent favorability from New York State likely voters, compared to a 46 - 36 percent favorability for McCain. Voters say 35 - 26 percent that Michelle Obama better fits their idea of a First Lady than Cindy McCain. Men split 29 - 29 percent while women prefer Ms. Obama 41 - 24 percent. "In presidential politics, color New York State blue and throw away the crayons. Sen. Barack Obama's overseas trip didn't help him in other states where Quinnipiac University polls, but he moved up here," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Sen. Obama and Sen. McCain are about even among white voters. But - just as in the Democratic primaries against Sen. Hillary Clinton - Obama's a big winner among black and young voters. And now he gets the women 2 - 1," Carroll added. Because of his age, 26 percent of New York State likely voters say they are less likely to vote for McCain. Obama's race won't affect their vote, 89 percent say. "New Yorkers insist they're not prejudiced against a black candidate, but one out of four admit to being biased against an older candidate," Carroll said. The economy is the biggest issue in their vote in November, 53 percent of voters say, followed by 17 percent who list the war in Iraq and 11 percent who cite health care. President Bush's Approval New York State likely voters disapprove 75 - 21 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing and say 68 - 26 percent that going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do. But voters split 48 - 48 percent on whether the U.S. should begin an immediate withdrawal of troops from Iraq with an 18-month timetable to complete the withdrawal or keeping troops in Iraq until the situation is stable, with no fixed date for full withdrawal. "The Iraq war continues to divide us by party. Republicans think it was the right thing to do; Democrats disagree. And, maybe because of Obama's new tone, there's a big shift in what we should do in Iraq. New Yorkers split down the middle between an immediate troop withdrawal and staying as long as needed," Carroll said. From July 31 - August 4, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,353 New York State likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. 1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners". LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Obama 57% 11% 88% 51% 50% 62% 47% 93% 59% McCain 36 84 8 39 43 29 45 2 32 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 4 3 7 5 7 7 4 6 IMP ISSUE Q19 UpState.... UpState War Econ Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Obama 72% 60% 49% 47% 47% 74% 48% McCain 22 32 41 44 44 20 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 2 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 7 9 7 7 4 6 WHITE........................... AGE IN YRS....... NoColl College 18-34 35-54 55+ Degree Degree Men Wom Cath Jew Obama 71% 57% 50% 41% 57% 42% 52% 40% 60% McCain 28 38 38 50 38 52 39 54 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA - 3 11 8 4 5 8 6 3 PresVt2004.. BushJobAppQ10 Bush Kerry App Dis Obama 16% 83% 9% 72% McCain 78 13 86 20 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 6 3 4 6 TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED VOTERS ................................... Aug 6 Jun 11 Apr 18 Mar 21 Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 Obama 52 50 47 49 47 48 47 McCain 31 36 39 38 39 33 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 2 3 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 5 3 3 4 4 3 DK/NA 12 8 9 8 8 12 12 1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS......... CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN CAND CHOICE Q1 Tot Obama McCain Made up 77% 79% 72% Might change 21 18 26 DK/NA 2 2 2 2. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 60% 26% 80% 60% 54% 64% 52% 90% Unfavorable 24 56 7 22 29 20 30 3 Hvn't hrd enough 13 13 10 16 14 13 14 5 REFUSED 3 5 2 3 4 3 4 1 3. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 46% 81% 23% 53% 52% 41% 56% 22% Unfavorable 36 5 58 29 34 38 29 57 Hvn't hrd enough 14 10 15 14 9 18 11 18 REFUSED 4 3 3 4 5 3 4 3 4. Is your opinion of -- Michelle Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 38% 20% 54% 32% 31% 45% 34% 67% Unfavorable 19 37 7 22 23 16 25 2 Hvn't hrd enough 38 41 35 39 40 35 35 27 REFUSED 5 3 4 7 6 4 6 3 5. Is your opinion of -- Cindy McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 21% 33% 14% 23% 20% 23% 26% 13% Unfavorable 12 3 20 9 9 15 8 27 Hvn't hrd enough 61 62 61 62 66 58 60 58 REFUSED 5 2 5 6 6 4 6 2 6. Who do you think better fits your idea of what a First Lady should be - Michelle Obama or Cindy McCain? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Michelle Obama 35% 9% 58% 26% 29% 41% 26% 76% Cindy McCain 26 54 9 30 29 24 33 5 DK/NA 38 37 33 43 42 35 42 19 10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 21% 61% 3% 16% 28% 16% 25% 6% Disapprove 75 35 95 79 69 81 70 92 DK/NA 4 5 2 5 3 4 4 2 19. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS) LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Terrorism 9% 21% 3% 9% 10% 8% 10% 3% The war in Iraq 17 11 19 20 14 20 15 22 The economy 53 47 57 53 53 52 55 50 Illegal immigration 5 8 3 6 7 3 5 1 Health care 11 6 15 8 11 12 9 20 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 3 4 3 4 3 3 4 2 DK/NA 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 20. Would you say that Barack Obama cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 65% 39% 84% 61% 60% 70% 59% 88% No 25 51 8 27 29 21 31 2 DK/NA 10 9 8 11 11 9 10 10 21. Would you say that John McCain cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 45% 77% 27% 48% 48% 43% 54% 23% No 45 17 64 41 42 48 38 64 DK/NA 10 6 9 11 10 9 8 13 22. If elected, John McCain would be the first person to become President at age 72 - Does that make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or doesn't it make a difference? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More likely 2% 3% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% Less likely 26 12 35 24 26 26 24 33 Doesn't make a diff 71 84 62 73 70 71 73 62 DK/NA 2 1 3 - 2 2 1 3 23. If elected, Barack Obama would be the first African-American President. Does that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More likely 8% 3% 12% 5% 8% 8% 5% 19% Less likely 3 5 1 3 4 2 3 2 Doesn't make a diff 89 91 87 92 88 90 91 78 DK/NA 1 1 1 - 1 - 1 1 24. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Very satisfied 1% 2% 1% - 1% 1% 1% - Smwht satisfied 15 26 9 15 18 12 14 18 Smwht dissatisfied 38 45 37 35 34 40 38 45 Very dissatisfied 46 26 53 50 45 47 46 37 DK/NA 1 2 1 - 1 1 1 - 25. Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Getting ahead 11% 15% 10% 11% 14% 9% 10% 11% Falling behind 25 14 27 30 23 26 23 29 Holding steady 64 71 62 58 63 64 66 60 DK/NA - - - 1 - 1 - - 28. As you think about your own financial situation, which of the following economic issues worries you the most right now -- A) declining retirement fund values, B) declining real estate values, C) rising health care costs D) rising gasoline prices, or E) rising food prices? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk A) Retirement funds 14% 14% 12% 17% 12% 16% 16% 13% B) Real estate vals 9 8 10 7 9 9 8 8 C) Health care cost 21 19 24 18 22 21 22 27 D) Gasoline prices 32 40 29 31 37 28 33 28 E) Food prices 20 16 20 22 16 23 17 24 DK/NA 4 3 4 5 5 4 4 1 29. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Right thing 26% 64% 8% 23% 34% 20% 32% 9% Wrong thing 68 29 90 69 62 74 63 87 DK/NA 5 7 2 8 4 6 5 4 30. Regardless of how you intend to vote, what would you prefer the next president do about the war in Iraq? A)Begin immediately a withdrawal of American troops, with a fixed date to have them all out within 18 months. OR B)Keep troops in Iraq until the situation is more stable, and then begin to withdraw them, without a fixed date for full withdrawal. LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk A) Begin immediate withdrawal/18 mos 48% 18% 65% 46% 40% 54% 41% 64% B)Stay until stable/ No fixed dates 48 79 29 50 55 41 54 31 DK/NA 5 3 5 4 4 5 4 5
