December 23, 2008 - New York Is Semi-Sweet On Caroline, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Cuomo Is Favored By Upstate Voters Word format New York State voters split 40 - 41 percent on whether Caroline Kennedy is qualified to be a U.S. Senator, but they expect by a 48 - 25 percent margin that Gov. David Paterson will name her to the Senate seat being vacated by Hillary Clinton, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Offered a choice, 33 percent of voters say Gov. Paterson should name Ms. Kennedy, while 29 percent say Attorney General Andrew Cuomo should get the nod. Another 4 percent pick Albany-area U.S. Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, while 24 percent want someone else and 10 percent are undecided, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Kennedy leads Cuomo 42 - 27 percent among New York City voters and ties Cuomo 30 - 30 percent among suburban voters, while Cuomo leads 31 - 27 percent among upstate voters. Men back Kennedy over Cuomo 32 - 27 percent while women back her 33 - 31 percent. Republicans prefer Cuomo 33 - 20 percent while Democrats back Kennedy 41 - 27 percent and independent voters back Cuomo 33 - 30 percent. "Will we get another Kennedy in the Senate? Only Gov. David Paterson knows for sure. Among New Yorkers in general, Caroline Kennedy's grade is just okay," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Ask the question two ways: Should the Governor appoint Ms. Kennedy? New Yorkers give her a narrow lead over Attorney General Andrew Cuomo. Will he appoint her? Heavily, the answer is 'yes.'" "Kennedy does best in heavily Democratic New York City, while Cuomo leads upstate. When offered a choice between two legendary Democratic names, Republicans would rather have a Cuomo than a Kennedy." New York State voters approve 72 - 14 percent of the job Cuomo is doing, his highest rating since he became Attorney General two years ago. Cuomo gets a 55 - 11 percent favorability rating, with 32 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion. Kennedy gets a 46 - 17 percent favorability, with 36 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion. Voters say 46 - 30 percent that she would be a good U.S. Senator, with men agreeing 46 - 33 percent and women agreeing 46 - 28 percent. In her final weeks as a Senator, Hillary Clinton gets a 70 - 25 percent approval rating, including a split 47 - 48 percent among Republicans. This is her second highest approval ever. U.S. Sen. Charles Schumer gets a 63 - 22 percent approval rating. "More than one-third of voters don't know enough about Caroline Kennedy to form an opinion. But she gets far more yes votes than no votes when New Yorkers are asked if she would make a 'good' Senator," Carroll said. "Voters may not want to promote Cuomo, but they give him high marks as Attorney General." Bush Approval New York State voters disapprove 78 - 18 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing, matching a 78 - 18 percent disapproval in a November 19 New Jersey poll as President Bush's lowest score in any state ever polled by Quinnipiac University. "The question in recent months has been how low can President Bush's job approval go. He's down in the teens with one month to go," Carroll said. From December 17 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 834 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. 2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hillary Clinton is handling her job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 70% 47% 87% 64% 65% 74% Disapprove 25 48 9 30 30 21 DK/NA 5 6 4 6 5 5 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 65% 64% 64% 78% 68% Disapprove 33 29 30 17 29 DK/NA 2 6 6 5 3 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hillary Clinton is handling her job as United States Senator? Highest Lowest Approve Approve Dec 23 Aug 6 Jun 12 Apr 17 Mar 24 Dec 14 Feb 14 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2006 2001 Approve 70 66 66 62 64 72 38 Disapprove 25 29 28 31 29 23 30 DK/NA 5 5 5 8 7 5 33 3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 63% 48% 73% 60% 60% 65% Disapprove 22 38 13 22 26 18 DK/NA 15 14 14 18 14 16 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 60% 57% 58% 71% 60% Disapprove 25 25 25 19 21 DK/NA 14 18 17 10 19 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator? * also 69% on 10/02/01 Highest Lowest Approve Approve Dec 23 Aug 6 Jun 12 Apr 17 Mar 24 Dec 8 Apr 15 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2004* 1999 Approve 63 61 66 65 66 69 51 Disapprove 22 23 21 18 18 16 22 DK/NA 15 16 14 17 16 15 28 4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 18% 44% 6% 17% 17% 19% Disapprove 78 50 93 78 79 77 DK/NA 4 6 1 5 3 4 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 17% 23% 22% 14% 18% Disapprove 76 73 73 84 77 DK/NA 7 5 5 2 5 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? * also 82% on 10/2/01 Highest Lowest Approve Approve Dec 23 Jun 11 Apr 18 Mar 21 Dec 17 Nov 14 Dec 23 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2001 * 2008 Approve 18 20 22 21 22 82 18 Disapprove 78 76 73 74 73 15 78 DK/NA 4 4 4 4 5 3 4 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State Attorney General? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 72% 65% 78% 68% 71% 72% Disapprove 14 19 11 13 13 15 DK/NA 14 16 11 19 16 13 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 79% 71% 73% 74% 67% Disapprove 11 15 14 13 15 DK/NA 10 14 13 13 18 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State Attorney General? Highest Lowest Approve Approve Dec 23 Aug 6 Jun 12 Apr 17 Mar 24 Dec 23 Feb 13 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 Approve 72 68 69 65 59 72 42 Disapprove 14 13 15 13 12 14 16 DK/NA 14 19 17 21 30 14 42 10. As you may know, Senator Hillary Clinton has been nominated to be Secretary of State and Governor Paterson will pick her replacement in the Senate. Who do you think Governor Paterson should pick to replace Hillary Clinton in the United States Senate; Caroline Kennedy, Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand or someone else? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Kennedy 33% 20% 41% 30% 32% 33% Cuomo 29 33 27 33 27 31 Gillibrand 4 6 3 4 5 3 Someone else 24 33 16 26 25 22 DK/NA 10 9 12 7 10 11 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Kennedy 24% 27% 27% 42% 30% Cuomo 27 31 31 27 30 Gillibrand 13 6 7 1 2 Someone else 25 22 23 23 26 DK/NA 11 13 13 6 13 11. Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 55% 49% 61% 51% 56% 54% Unfavorable 11 20 5 14 12 10 Hvn't hrd enough 32 29 32 34 29 34 REFUSED 2 2 2 1 3 1 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 51% 56% 55% 57% 51% Unfavorable 8 10 10 11 15 Hvn't hrd enough 39 31 33 31 31 REFUSED 1 2 2 1 3 12. Is your opinion of Caroline Kennedy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 46% 25% 58% 46% 42% 50% Unfavorable 17 29 7 23 21 14 Hvn't hrd enough 36 44 34 31 37 36 REFUSED 1 1 - - 1 0 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 37% 39% 39% 54% 48% Unfavorable 19 19 19 14 19 Hvn't hrd enough 41 42 42 31 33 REFUSED 2 1 1 1 - 13. Do you think Caroline Kennedy would be a good United States Senator or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 46% 26% 59% 45% 46% 46% No 30 49 17 35 33 28 DK/NA 24 25 24 20 21 26 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Yes 38% 41% 40% 53% 46% No 33 30 31 27 35 DK/NA 28 29 29 20 20 14. Do you think Caroline Kennedy is qualified to be a United States Senator or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 40% 20% 51% 37% 39% 40% No 41 55 31 45 43 39 DK/NA 19 25 18 18 17 21 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Yes 34% 33% 33% 49% 38% No 43 43 43 36 43 DK/NA 23 23 23 15 19 15. Do you think Governor Paterson will pick Caroline Kennedy to replace Hillary Clinton in the Senate or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 48% 51% 48% 45% 49% 47% No 25 23 25 29 26 24 DK/NA 27 26 27 26 25 28 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Yes 45% 44% 45% 52% 48% No 22 27 26 25 24 DK/NA 33 28 29 23 28
