January 26, 2009 - More Voters Blame Kennedy For Failed Senate Bid, Quinnipiac University New York State Poll Finds; Republicans Back Gillibrand More Than Democrats Word format Caroline Kennedy and her aides are more to blame than Gov. David Paterson and his team for the controversy surrounding her failed bid for New York's U.S. Senate seat, voters say 49 - 15 percent in a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Another 12 percent blame both camps, while 24 percent are undecided. New York State voters approve 46 - 30 percent, with 24 percent undecided, of Gov. Paterson's selection of Albany area U.S. Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand for the Senate seat, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Men approve 48 - 29 percent while women approve 44 - 31 percent. Republicans back the selection 56 - 27 percent, a wider margin than the 41 - 35 percent among Democrats. Independent voters back her 49 - 21 percent. Upstate voters back the choice 55 - 25 percent, while suburban voters approve 35 - 32 percent and New York City voters approve 41 - 34 percent. By a 25 - 10 percent margin, New York State voters have a favorable opinion of Gillibrand, but 63 percent say they don't know enough about her to make a decision. Her favorability upstate is 34 - 8 percent with 58 percent who don't know enough about her to decide. "Blame for dithering over the choice of a U.S. Senator falls mostly on Caroline Kennedy. But there's an inside-baseball element in this - a lot of New Yorkers say they simply don't know who's at fault," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Kirsten who? Senator-to-be Kirsten Gillibrand is smart to instantly do let's-get- acquainted visits with black and Hispanic leaders. New Yorkers aren't unfriendly, but two-thirds of them don't know much about her. "And as expected, the new Senator is more popular upstate than downstate." While more New York State voters approve of Paterson's selection of Gillibrand, they split on their judgment of how he selected a new Senator, with 44 percent approving and 42 percent disapproving. Republicans approve 52 - 39 percent, while Democrats split 42 - 43 percent. Paterson's overall approval stands at 50 - 30 percent, down from 53 - 25 percent in a January 15 Quinnipiac University poll. Paterson's approval among Republican voters is up, from 41 - 38 percent to 45 - 39 percent, while approval among Democrats is down from 62 - 18 percent to 54 - 24 percent. "New Yorkers give Paterson a split decision on how he handled the Senate selection, despite the critical news coverage. He hurt himself among Democrats, while Republicans are liking him a little better these days," Carroll said. Because of Gillibrand's pro-gun position and her backing by the National Rifle Assn., 36 percent of New York State voter, including 50 percent of Democrats, are less likely to vote for her when she runs for election next year, while 17 percent are more likely to vote for her. Another 41 percent say this doesn't make a difference. "In the Congressional district she's represented, NRA support is a plus. Not state-wide," Carroll said. From January 23 - 25, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,047 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his job as Governor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 50% 45% 54% 53% 50% 50% Disapprove 30 39 24 28 32 29 DK/NA 20 15 22 19 18 21 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 52% 43% 45% 55% 51% Disapprove 31 36 35 26 29 DK/NA 17 21 20 19 20 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his job as Governor? Jan 26 Jan 15 Dec 24 Aug 6 Jun 12 Apr 17 2009 2009 2008 2008 2008 2008 Approve 50 53 53 64 56 50 Disapprove 30 25 29 14 17 10 DK/NA 20 22 18 22 27 39 2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Governor Paterson handled the process of selecting a new United States senator to fill Hillary Clinton's senate seat? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 44% 52% 42% 43% 48% 41% Disapprove 42 39 43 43 40 44 DK/NA 14 9 15 13 12 15 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 52% 48% 49% 47% 31% Disapprove 31 38 36 42 53 DK/NA 17 15 15 11 15 3. Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Paterson's selection of Kirsten Gillibrand to fill Hillary Clinton's senate seat? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 46% 56% 41% 49% 48% 44% Disapprove 30 27 35 21 29 31 DK/NA 24 17 24 30 23 25 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 61% 54% 55% 41% 35% Disapprove 25 25 25 34 32 DK/NA 14 21 20 25 33 4. Is your opinion of Kirsten Gillibrand favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 25% 30% 22% 28% 32% 20% Unfavorable 10 7 11 10 10 11 Hvn't hrd enough 63 63 66 61 57 68 REFUSED 1 - 1 - 1 1 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 34% 34% 34% 19% 19% Unfavorable 6 8 8 13 13 Hvn't hrd enough 60 57 58 67 68 REFUSED - 1 1 1 1 5. Is your opinion of David Paterson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 48% 36% 57% 44% 49% 47% Unfavorable 25 36 19 24 26 24 Hvn't hrd enough 24 25 22 27 23 25 REFUSED 3 2 2 5 2 3 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 49% 44% 45% 52% 48% Unfavorable 20 29 27 23 25 Hvn't hrd enough 27 25 25 22 25 REFUSED 3 3 3 3 3 TREND: Is your opinion of David Paterson favorable, unfavorable, or haven’t you heard enough about him? Jan 26 Mar 20 2009 2008 Favorable 48 46 Unfavorable 25 3 Hvn't hrd enough 24 51 REFUSED 3 - 6. Who do you blame for the controversy surrounding Caroline Kennedy's failed senate bid - Governor Paterson and his aides or Caroline Kennedy and her aides? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Paterson and aides 15% 11% 18% 16% 16% 14% Kennedy and aides 49 63 42 54 52 47 BOTH (VOL) 12 11 11 11 13 11 DK/NA 24 16 30 20 20 28 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Paterson and aides 12% 13% 13% 18% 13% Kennedy and aides 53 45 47 52 49 BOTH (VOL) 15 11 12 10 13 DK/NA 20 30 28 20 24 7. Does the fact that Kirsten Gillibrand is against gun control and that she is supported by the National Rifle Association make you more likely to vote for her for senator in 2010, less likely to vote for her, or doesn't it make a difference? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom More likely 17% 30% 7% 22% 23% 13% Less likely 36 16 50 24 32 38 Doesn't make diff 41 51 34 49 43 40 DK/NA 6 3 8 4 2 9 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub More likely 16% 24% 22% 12% 15% Less likely 26 26 26 44 40 Doesn't make diff 55 45 47 35 41 DK/NA 3 5 5 8 4
