February 17, 2009 - Curse Of Caroline Leaves Paterson Trailing Cuomo 2-1, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Giuliani Ties Paterson, Trails Cuomo In Gov Race Word format The Caroline Kennedy caper continues to bedevil New York Gov. David Paterson as he trails Attorney General Andrew Cuomo 55 - 23 in an early look at a 2010 Democratic primary for Governor, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. In a general election matchup, Gov. Paterson ties former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, a possible Republican challenger, 43 - 43 percent, with 10 percent undecided, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Paterson leads 70 - 18 percent among Democrats, while Giuliani leads 80 - 9 percent among Republicans and 47 - 38 percent among independent voters. New York City voters go with Paterson 52 - 35 percent, while Giuliani leads 48 - 36 percent among suburban voters and 47 - 38 percent upstate. Attorney General Cuomo leads Giuliani 51 - 37 percent in the Governor's race, ahead 81 - 11 percent among Democrats and 45 - 40 percent among independent voters. Giuliani leads 76 - 11 percent among Republicans. Cuomo is up 61 - 30 percent in New York City and 48 - 41 percent in the suburbs and gets 44 percent of upstate voters to Giuliani's 42 percent. New York State voters approve 45 - 41 percent of the job Paterson is doing, his lowest approval rating in 11 months as Governor and down from 50 - 30 percent January 26. Voters disapprove 52 - 35 percent of the way Paterson handled the appointment of a U.S. Senator to fill Hillary Clinton's seat. Disapproval is similar across the political spectrum. "The Caroline Kennedy mix-up still haunts Gov. David Paterson," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "In numbers which could tempt Attorney General Andrew Cuomo to take another shot at Governor, Paterson trails Cuomo 2 - 1 among Democratic voters and scratches out a tie with Mayor Rudolph Giuliani in the general election." New York State voters approve 76 - 11 percent of the job Andrew Cuomo is doing and give him a 63 - 15 percent favorability. Paterson gets a 41 - 35 percent favorability with 20 percent saying they don't know enough to form an opinion. Giuliani gets a 56 - 35 percent favorability. Most New York State voters, 73 percent, heard or read something about the criticism of Caroline Kennedy that was leaked to the media. Voters say 64 - 28 percent that this criticism was unfair. But voters say 44 - 26 percent, with 30 percent undecided, that Paterson is not responsible for this leaked criticism. "Three quarters of New Yorkers heard about the nasty news leaks. They think Kennedy was treated unfairly, but most don't blame Paterson for the leaks," Carroll said. Sen. Gillibrand While voters are not happy with the process, they do approve 45 - 33 percent, with 22 percent undecided, of Paterson's selection of Kirsten Gillibrand as U.S. Senator. Even Republicans approve 42 - 33 percent. Sen. Gillibrand gets a 28 - 10 percent job approval rating, with 62 percent undecided. Similarly, she gets a 24 - 9 percent favorability with 65 percent who haven't heard enough. A possible challenger in the 2010 Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate, U.S. Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, has a 24 - 9 percent favorability with 66 percent who haven't heard enough. And U.S. Rep. Peter King, a possible 2010 Republican challenger for the Senate seat, has a 21 - 10 percent favorability, with 68 percent who don't know enough to decide. Rep. McCarthy tops Sen. Gillibrand in a Democratic primary 34 - 24 percent, with 39 percent undecided. In a general election matchup with Rep. King, Gillibrand is up 42 - 26 percent, with 28 percent undecided. "Sen. Gillibrand needs to keep up her get-acquainted campaign. She trails Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, and 'don't know,' among Democrats and leads Rep. Peter King in a November campaign," Carroll said. "But as of today, voters don't know much about any of them." From February 10 - 15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,065 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.0 percentage points. The survey includes 450 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201. 1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson and Andrew Cuomo, for whom would you vote? Reg Dems Paterson 23% Cuomo 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 DK/NA 20 2. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Kirsten Gillibrand and Carolyn McCarthy, for whom would you vote? Reg Dems Gillibrand 24% McCarthy 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 DK/NA 39 3. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Paterson 43% 9% 70% 38% 40% 45% Giuliani 43 80 18 47 46 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2 2 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 3 1 2 3 DK/NA 10 9 7 12 10 11 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Paterson 42% 37% 38% 52% 36% Giuliani 40 49 47 35 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 7 2 3 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 2 3 2 DK/NA 10 10 10 8 14 4. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Cuomo 51% 11% 81% 45% 46% 54% Giuliani 37 76 11 40 42 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 9 10 6 11 9 9 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Cuomo 53% 41% 44% 61% 48% Giuliani 34 44 42 30 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 - 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 2 2 2 DK/NA 10 11 11 6 10 5. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Kirsten Gillibrand the Democrat and Peter King the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Gillibrand 42% 11% 66% 37% 39% 44% King 26 56 8 26 30 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 3 2 2 2 DK/NA 28 30 23 33 26 30 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Gillibrand 56% 43% 46% 42% 33% King 14 21 19 25 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 2 2 3 2 DK/NA 27 33 32 27 23 6. Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 63% 46% 78% 58% 63% 63% Unfavorable 15 26 7 15 18 12 Hvn't hrd enough 20 24 15 23 16 22 REFUSED 2 3 1 3 3 2 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 63% 59% 60% 67% 63% Unfavorable 17 12 13 14 19 Hvn't hrd enough 14 26 23 17 17 REFUSED 5 3 4 2 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Feb 17 Jan 14 Dec 23 2009 2009 2008 Favorable 63 57 55 Unfavorable 15 10 11 Hvn't hrd enough 20 32 32 REFUSED 2 2 2 7. Is your opinion of David Paterson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 41% 32% 51% 37% 44% 38% Unfavorable 35 49 25 37 38 33 Hvn't hrd enough 20 15 21 21 15 24 REFUSED 4 5 3 5 4 4 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 46% 39% 40% 46% 32% Unfavorable 35 35 35 32 42 Hvn't hrd enough 18 21 21 19 21 REFUSED 1 4 4 4 5 TREND: Is your opinion of David Paterson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Feb 17 Jan 26 2009 2009 Favorable 41 48 Unfavorable 35 25 Hvn't hrd enough 20 24 REFUSED 4 3 8. Is your opinion of Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 56% 90% 37% 56% 56% 56% Unfavorable 35 8 54 34 37 33 Hvn't hrd enough 7 2 9 8 4 8 REFUSED 2 1 1 1 2 2 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 54% 63% 61% 48% 61% Unfavorable 28 25 25 46 35 Hvn't hrd enough 12 9 10 5 2 REFUSED 6 3 3 - 2 TREND: Is your opinion of -- Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Feb 17 Dec 17 Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14 2009 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 56 41 55 55 55 56 Unfavorable 35 40 38 36 35 30 Hvn't hrd enough 7 16 5 7 8 11 REFUSED 2 3 2 3 2 3 9. Is your opinion of Kirsten Gillibrand favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 24% 18% 28% 24% 26% 23% Unfavorable 9 13 8 8 10 8 Hvn't hrd enough 65 68 63 68 63 67 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 2 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 29% 35% 34% 20% 12% Unfavorable 6 7 7 13 7 Hvn't hrd enough 61 57 58 66 81 REFUSED 4 1 2 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Kirsten Gillibrand favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Feb 17 Jan 26 2009 2009 Favorable 24 25 Unfavorable 9 10 Hvn't hrd enough 65 63 REFUSED 1 1 10. Is your opinion of Carolyn McCarthy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 24% 14% 35% 22% 21% 27% Unfavorable 9 14 3 11 11 6 Hvn't hrd enough 66 69 61 67 66 66 REFUSED 1 3 1 1 1 1 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 9% 6% 6% 36% 42% Unfavorable 3 5 4 8 18 Hvn't hrd enough 87 88 88 55 39 REFUSED 1 2 2 - 1 11. Is your opinion of Peter King favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 21% 40% 10% 21% 26% 17% Unfavorable 10 2 17 8 12 9 Hvn't hrd enough 68 57 72 70 61 73 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 10% 12% 12% 22% 37% Unfavorable 6 5 5 14 14 Hvn't hrd enough 84 82 82 63 47 REFUSED - 1 1 - 2 12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his job as Governor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 45% 35% 53% 45% 48% 42% Disapprove 41 52 36 38 40 42 DK/NA 14 13 12 17 12 16 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 38% 46% 44% 48% 42% Disapprove 47 39 41 40 43 DK/NA 15 15 15 12 15 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his job as Governor? Feb 17 Jan 26 Jan 15 Dec 24 Aug 6 Jun 12 Apr 17 2009 2009 2009 2008 2008 2008 2008 Approve 45 50 53 53 64 56 50 Disapprove 41 30 25 29 14 17 10 DK/NA 14 20 22 18 22 27 39 13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kirsten Gillibrand is handling her job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 28% 25% 35% 25% 29% 28% Disapprove 10 13 10 7 10 10 DK/NA 62 62 55 68 61 63 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 32% 35% 34% 29% 16% Disapprove 2 7 6 13 11 DK/NA 66 58 60 58 73 14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 64% 36% 84% 65% 59% 68% Disapprove 24 49 9 23 29 19 DK/NA 12 15 8 12 11 13 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 56% 58% 57% 76% 59% Disapprove 26 27 26 18 27 DK/NA 18 16 16 6 13 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator? (* also 69% on 10/02/01) Highest Lowest Approve Approve Feb 17 Jan 14 Dec 23 Aug 6 Jun 12 Dec 8 Apr 15 2009 2009 2008 2008 2008 2004* 1999 Approve 64 57 63 61 66 69 51 Disapprove 24 24 22 23 21 16 22 DK/NA 12 19 15 16 14 15 28 16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 32% 27% 39% 27% 28% 35% Disapprove 50 58 37 60 59 43 DK/NA 18 15 24 13 13 22 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 27% 31% 30% 36% 30% Disapprove 57 53 54 46 48 DK/NA 16 16 16 17 22 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? (* also 26% 8/11/2004) Highest Lowest Approve Approve Feb 17 Jan 15 Dec 24 Aug 6 Jun 12 Apr 4 Aug 6 2009 2009 2008 2008 2008 2007 2008* Approve 32 28 30 26 29 34 26 Disapprove 50 54 55 55 55 43 55 DK/NA 18 18 15 18 16 23 18 17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Thomas DiNapoli is handling his job as State Comptroller? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 29% 23% 32% 31% 33% 26% Disapprove 17 25 14 12 19 16 DK/NA 54 52 54 57 48 58 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 30% 27% 28% 30% 30% Disapprove 19 15 16 17 20 DK/NA 51 58 56 53 50 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Thomas DiNapoli is handling his job as State Comptroller? Highest Lowest Approve Approve Feb 17 Jan 15 Dec 24 Aug 6 Jun 12 Jul 31 Apr 4 2009 2009 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 Approve 29 30 33 25 30 34 24 Disapprove 17 18 20 16 13 15 13 DK/NA 54 52 47 59 57 51 63 18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State Attorney General? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 76% 65% 86% 76% 76% 76% Disapprove 11 16 5 10 13 9 DK/NA 13 19 9 14 11 15 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 72% 73% 73% 82% 74% Disapprove 13 11 12 9 12 DK/NA 14 16 15 10 14 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State Attorney General? Highest Lowest Approve Approve Feb 17 Jan 14 Dec 23 Aug 6 Jun 12 Feb 17 Feb 13 2009 2009 2008 2008 2008 2009 2007 Approve 76 69 72 68 69 76 42 Disapprove 11 16 14 13 15 11 16 DK/NA 13 15 14 19 17 13 42 19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sheldon Silver is handling his job as State Assembly Speaker? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 30% 23% 39% 24% 27% 33% Disapprove 33 43 25 37 44 25 DK/NA 37 34 36 38 30 42 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 33% 24% 26% 40% 23% Disapprove 32 33 33 31 36 DK/NA 35 43 41 28 41 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sheldon Silver is handling his job as State Assembly Speaker? Highest Lowest Approve Approve Feb 17 Jan 15 Dec 24 Aug 6 Jun 12 Dec 24 Aug 11 2009 2009 2008 2008 2008 2008 2004 Approve 30 31 38 31 32 38 26 Disapprove 33 34 34 31 31 34 33 DK/NA 37 34 28 38 37 38 41 21. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Governor Paterson handled the process of selecting a new United States senator to fill Hillary Clinton's senate seat? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 35% 35% 36% 37% 38% 33% Disapprove 52 51 53 49 52 53 DK/NA 13 14 11 14 10 15 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 45% 39% 40% 36% 22% Disapprove 44 45 44 57 61 DK/NA 11 16 15 7 17 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Governor Paterson handled the process of selecting a new United States senator to fill Hillary Clinton's senate seat? Feb 17 Jan 26 2009 2009 Approve 35 44 Disapprove 52 42 DK/NA 13 14 22. Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Paterson's selection of Kirsten Gillibrand to fill Hillary Clinton's senate seat? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 45% 42% 47% 47% 49% 42% Disapprove 33 33 35 31 32 34 DK/NA 22 25 18 22 19 24 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 52% 58% 56% 40% 29% Disapprove 27 20 21 40 47 DK/NA 21 23 22 20 24 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Paterson's selection of Kirsten Gillibrand to fill Hillary Clinton's senate seat? Feb 17 Jan 26 2009 2009 Approve 45 46 Disapprove 33 30 DK/NA 22 24 23. Have you heard or read anything about the criticism of Caroline Kennedy that was leaked to the news media around the time that Caroline Kennedy ended her Senate bid? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 73% 69% 75% 72% 72% 73% No 26 30 24 26 26 25 DK/NA 2 1 1 2 2 2 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Yes 67% 72% 71% 76% 69% No 32 26 28 22 28 DK/NA 1 2 1 1 3 24. Do you think that the criticism of Caroline Kennedy that was leaked to the news media was fair or unfair? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Fair 28% 34% 24% 32% 35% 23% Unfair 64 57 71 61 59 69 DK/NA 7 8 6 7 6 8 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Fair 25% 30% 29% 31% 22% Unfair 66 60 61 66 69 DK/NA 10 11 11 3 8 25. Do you think Governor Paterson was responsible for this leaked criticism of Caroline Kennedy? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 26% 22% 30% 21% 27% 25% No 44 50 40 49 46 43 DK/NA 30 28 30 30 27 32 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Yes 17% 19% 18% 33% 27% No 40 51 48 42 41 DK/NA 43 31 33 25 32
