December 15, 2009 - Paterson Approval Up, But Dems Back Cuomo Almost 3-1, Quinnipiac University New York State Poll Finds; Thompson Tops Gillibrand In Dem Senate Primary Word format New York Gov. David Paterson continues his climb out of the basement, as voters disapprove 49 - 40 percent of the job he is doing, up from 57 - 30 percent disapproval October 21 and his best overall score since a 45 - 41 percent approval February 17, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Attorney General Andrew Cuomo still leads Gov. David Paterson 60 - 23 percent among Democrats in a primary contest for the 2010 governor's race. This compares to a 61 - 19 percent Cuomo lead in an October 21 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Cuomo leads 72 - 15 percent among white Democrats and ties Paterson 41 - 40 percent among black Democrats. New York State voters say 59 - 28 percent that Paterson does not deserve election to a full four-year term. Looking at possible general election matchups against former U.S. Rep. Rick Lazio, the only Republican contender at this point: Cuomo tops Lazio 62 - 22 percent; Paterson leads Lazio 41 - 37 percent. New York City Comptroller William Thompson leads incumbent U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand 41 - 28 percent in a possible 2010 Democratic primary race. In a general election matchup, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani tops Thompson 52 - 36 percent and Gillibrand 50 - 40 percent. "Gov. David Paterson's tough talk on the state budget has boosted his job-approval numbers across the political board - with Democrats, Republicans and independent voters," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Gov. Paterson's new TV ads depict him as a probable 2010 candidate. But New Yorkers say 2-1 'fuhgeddaboutit,'" Carroll added. "He still trails State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo almost 3-1 in a Democratic primary. With Mayor Rudolph Giuliani out as a possible Republican candidate - and only former Congressman Rick Lazio in the field right now - Paterson is up a few points. Cuomo trounces the Republican almost 3-1. "If New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson can raise some money and get in the race, he has a double-digit lead over rookie U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand. But Giuliani, who is pondering a Senate race, tops both of them." New York State voters give Paterson a negative 38 - 44 percent favorability rating, his best favorability score since a February 17 Quinnipiac University poll. Cuomo gets a 74 - 12 percent approval rating, continuing a six-month streak of plus-70 scores. He gets a 57 - 14 percent favorability. Giuliani gets a 59 - 32 percent favorability. Gillibrand, Thompson and Lazio are largely unknown, as 58 to 67 percent of voters don't know enough about them to form an opinion. The biggest jump in Paterson's approval is among Republicans, who went from 60 percentage points negative October 21 to 40 points negative today. Democrats went from 8 points negative to 10 points positive while independent voters went from 31 points negative to 12 points negative. Obama, Schumer Approval New York State voters approve 59 - 36 percent of the job President Obama is doing, compared to 62 - 32 percent October 21. In today's survey, Obama wins 87 - 10 percent approval from Democrats and 55 - 38 percent support from independent voters. Republicans disapprove 76 - 19 percent. U.S. Sen. Charles Schumer, facing reelection in 2010, has a 62 - 27 percent approval. From December 7 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,692 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The survey includes 719 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson and Andrew Cuomo, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMOCRATS........... Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Paterson 23% 26% 21% 15% 40% Cuomo 60 62 58 72 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 - DK/NA 16 11 19 12 18 TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson and Andrew Cuomo, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.................................. Dec 15 Oct 21 Aug 16 Jun 24 May 13 Apr 6 Feb 17 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Paterson 23 19 15 20 17 18 23 Cuomo 60 61 61 57 62 61 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 1 3 1 DK/NA 16 17 22 20 18 17 20 2. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Kirsten Gillibrand and William Thompson, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMOCRATS........... Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Gillibrand 28% 28% 28% 36% 11% Thompson 41 42 39 28 65 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 4 1 3 1 DK/NA 28 25 30 31 23 3. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson the Democrat and Rick Lazio the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Paterson 41% 9% 66% 34% 42% 39% 31% 72% 49% Lazio 37 74 18 37 39 35 46 11 22 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 1 4 3 3 2 4 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 3 5 3 4 4 2 1 DK/NA 16 13 12 21 13 19 16 11 25 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Paterson 48% 30% 32% 58% 28% Lazio 33 45 44 26 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 5 3 3 1 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 4 4 2 4 DK/NA 9 18 17 12 22 TREND: If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson the Democrat and Rick Lazio the Republican, for whom would you vote? Dec 15 Oct 21 2009 2009 Paterson 41 38 Lazio 37 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 6 DK/NA 16 16 4. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Rick Lazio the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Cuomo 62% 26% 86% 58% 57% 66% 59% 74% 59% Lazio 22 56 5 22 29 17 26 11 20 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 1 1 - 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 14 17 7 17 12 15 13 13 18 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Cuomo 64% 57% 58% 71% 54% Lazio 19 26 25 16 27 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 13 14 14 11 17 TREND: If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Rick Lazio the Republican, for whom would you vote? Dec 15 Oct 21 2009 2009 Cuomo 62 61 Lazio 22 22 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 DK/NA 14 13 5. Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Favorable 57% 37% 71% 56% 54% 59% 58% 51% 55% Unfavorable 14 31 5 13 19 11 16 12 6 Hvn't hrd enough 27 29 23 29 26 29 24 36 39 REFUSED 1 3 1 1 2 1 2 - - UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 56% 56% 56% 60% 54% Unfavorable 14 14 14 11 20 Hvn't hrd enough 29 28 28 27 25 REFUSED 2 2 2 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*High also 63% Apr 2009 and Feb 2009) FAVORABLE..... High Low Dec 15 Oct 21 Aug 16 Jun 24 May 13 Jun 24 May 13 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009* 2009 Favorable 57 61 52 63 51 63 51 Unfavorable 14 13 12 15 13 15 13 Hvn't hrd enough 27 23 34 20 34 20 34 REFUSED 1 3 2 2 2 2 2 6. Is your opinion of David Paterson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Favorable 38% 22% 49% 36% 42% 34% 31% 60% 55% Unfavorable 44 65 32 44 41 46 53 17 28 Hvn't hrd enough 15 10 16 17 14 16 13 20 15 REFUSED 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 2 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 35% 31% 31% 49% 32% Unfavorable 45 52 52 31 50 Hvn't hrd enough 17 13 14 18 14 REFUSED 3 3 3 3 4 TREND: Is your opinion of David Paterson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FAVORABLE..... High Low Dec 15 Oct 21 Aug 16 Jun 24 May 13 Jan 26 May 13 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 38 28 26 28 24 48 24 Unfavorable 44 52 53 54 55 25 55 Hvn't hrd enough 15 15 18 14 18 24 18 REFUSED 3 5 3 4 3 3 3 7. Is your opinion of Rick Lazio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Favorable 19% 39% 8% 20% 23% 15% 21% 12% 23% Unfavorable 13 2 22 11 15 12 13 12 22 Hvn't hrd enough 67 58 69 68 61 72 66 76 54 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 16% 17% 17% 15% 27% Unfavorable 8 8 8 18 15 Hvn't hrd enough 74 75 75 65 56 REFUSED 2 1 1 1 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Rick Lazio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Dec 15 Oct 21 2009 2009 Favorable 19 15 Unfavorable 13 13 Hvn't hrd enough 67 70 REFUSED 1 2 8. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Kirsten Gillibrand the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Gillibrand 40% 4% 68% 32% 40% 40% 32% 70% 44% Giuliani 50 92 23 57 53 48 58 17 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 2 - DK/NA 8 3 7 9 5 10 7 9 7 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Gillibrand 32% 33% 33% 54% 31% Giuliani 56 57 57 36 61 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 2 1 1 DK/NA 7 8 8 8 6 9. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were William Thompson the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Thompson 36% 3% 63% 28% 35% 37% 25% 76% 47% Giuliani 52 92 25 60 56 49 63 15 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 - 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 3 2 2 3 2 1 2 DK/NA 9 4 8 10 6 11 10 8 6 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Thompson 22% 22% 22% 58% 27% Giuliani 55 64 63 34 62 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 2 1 3 DK/NA 17 11 12 7 7 10. Is your opinion of Kirsten Gillibrand favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Favorable 26% 12% 34% 27% 28% 25% 28% 23% 29% Unfavorable 15 26 7 16 17 13 17 7 8 Hvn't hrd enough 58 61 58 56 54 61 54 70 63 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 - - UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 27% 35% 34% 24% 16% Unfavorable 18 17 17 11 17 Hvn't hrd enough 55 47 48 64 66 REFUSED - 2 1 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Kirsten Gillibrand favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Dec 15 Jun 24 Apr 6 Feb 17 Jan 26 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 26 25 24 24 25 Unfavorable 15 10 11 9 10 Hvn't hrd enough 58 63 64 65 63 REFUSED 1 2 1 1 1 11. Is your opinion of William Thompson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Favorable 25% 6% 45% 19% 27% 24% 14% 68% 39% Unfavorable 10 15 6 11 13 8 12 2 10 Hvn't hrd enough 64 78 49 69 61 67 73 29 51 REFUSED 1 - - 1 - 1 1 1 - UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 12% 8% 8% 52% 13% Unfavorable 3 5 5 13 15 Hvn't hrd enough 85 87 86 34 72 REFUSED - 1 1 1 - 12. Is your opinion of Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Favorable 59% 91% 36% 67% 61% 57% 67% 27% 63% Unfavorable 32 5 52 27 34 31 25 62 30 Hvn't hrd enough 7 3 9 5 4 9 7 6 5 REFUSED 2 1 3 1 1 2 1 5 2 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 62% 69% 68% 43% 69% Unfavorable 18 19 19 50 29 Hvn't hrd enough 18 10 11 5 1 REFUSED 2 2 2 3 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FAVORABLE..... High Low Dec 15 Oct 21 Aug 16 Jun 24 May 13 Dec 15 Dec 17 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2007 Favorable 59 57 53 55 56 59 41 Unfavorable 32 32 33 36 32 32 40 Hvn't hrd enough 7 8 11 6 10 7 16 REFUSED 2 2 4 3 2 2 3 13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his job as Governor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Approve 40% 27% 49% 38% 44% 36% 34% 55% 52% Disapprove 49 67 39 50 47 51 58 27 34 DK/NA 11 6 12 12 8 13 8 18 14 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 38% 35% 35% 49% 34% Disapprove 53 57 57 36 57 DK/NA 9 8 8 15 9 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his job as governor? (*Low App also 28% Apr 2009 & May 2009 / ** High Dis also 61% May 2009) APPROVE....... DIS... High Low High Dec 15 Oct 21 Aug 16 Jun 24 Aug 6 Jun 24 Jun 24 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2009* 2009** Approve 40 30 30 28 64 28 28 Disapprove 49 57 59 61 14 61 61 DK/NA 11 14 12 12 22 12 12 14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kirsten Gillibrand is handling her job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Approve 40% 22% 50% 40% 39% 41% 38% 52% 38% Disapprove 21 37 12 20 26 16 25 10 11 DK/NA 39 40 38 40 35 42 37 38 51 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 39% 46% 45% 41% 29% Disapprove 29 25 25 16 20 DK/NA 33 29 29 43 51 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kirsten Gillibrand is handling her job as United States Senator? Dec 15 Oct 21 Aug 16 Jun 24 Apr 6 Feb 17 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 40 32 33 37 33 28 Disapprove 21 20 19 15 13 10 DK/NA 39 48 48 48 54 62 15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Approve 62% 41% 81% 57% 59% 64% 60% 77% 54% Disapprove 27 46 12 32 35 21 30 11 33 DK/NA 11 13 6 11 6 15 10 12 13 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 64% 55% 56% 72% 56% Disapprove 24 32 31 19 35 DK/NA 12 13 13 9 9 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator? (*High app also 69% Oct 2001) APPROVE....... DIS... High Low High Dec 15 Oct 21 Aug 16 Jun 24 Dec 8 Apr 15 Jan 20 2009 2009 2009 2009 2004* 1999 2006 Approve 62 62 58 63 69 51 58 Disapprove 27 24 27 23 16 22 28 DK/NA 11 14 15 14 15 28 14 16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Approve 59% 19% 87% 55% 55% 62% 50% 88% 74% Disapprove 36 76 10 38 40 33 44 7 23 DK/NA 5 5 3 6 5 5 5 5 4 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Dec 15 Oct 21 Aug 16 Jun 24 Apr 6 Feb 19 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 59 62 60 67 71 72 Disapprove 36 32 35 26 21 17 DK/NA 5 6 6 7 7 10 18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State Attorney General? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Approve 74% 61% 82% 76% 73% 74% 75% 67% 77% Disapprove 12 25 6 9 15 9 12 17 7 DK/NA 14 14 11 15 12 16 13 15 15 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 76% 73% 73% 75% 72% Disapprove 10 13 12 9 16 DK/NA 14 15 14 15 12 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State Attorney General? APPROVE....... DIS... High Low High Dec 15 Oct 21 Aug 16 Jun 24 Feb 17 Feb 13 Jul 31 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2007 2007 Approve 74 71 74 73 76 42 68 Disapprove 12 11 10 12 11 16 19 DK/NA 14 18 17 14 13 42 14 20. Looking ahead to the 2010 election for Governor, do you feel that David Paterson deserves to be elected to a full 4-year term, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be elected to a full 4-year term? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Yes/deserves 28% 14% 39% 26% 29% 27% 22% 51% 32% No/does not 59 78 47 60 60 58 67 35 52 DK/NA 13 8 14 15 11 15 11 14 16 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Yes/deserves 29% 26% 26% 37% 18% No/does not 64 63 63 47 69 DK/NA 6 11 11 16 13 TREND: Looking ahead to the 2010 election for governor, do you feel that David Paterson deserves to be elected to a full 4-year term, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be elected to a full 4-year term? Dec 15 Oct 21 Aug 16 Jun 24 May 13 Apr 6 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Yes/deserves 28 23 20 22 21 22 No/does not 59 63 67 64 64 63 DK/NA 13 13 13 13 15 16
