October 8, 2010 - Despite Anger At D.C., Dems Lead In All New York Races, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Women Propel Gillibrand To Double-Digit Lead Word format Democrats are surging in all New York statewide races as little-known Republican candidates struggle for name recognition, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand tops the magic 50 percent mark, leading Republican challenger Joseph DioGuardi 55 - 34 percent, compared to a 48 - 42 percent Gillibrand lead in a September 23 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Gillibrand leads 59 - 28 percent among women and 51 - 39 percent among men. Describing their feelings about the federal government: 30 percent of likely voters say they are angry; 43 percent say they are dissatisfied; 23 percent say they are satisfied; 2 percent say they are enthusiastic. DioGuardi leads Gillibrand among these angry voters 59 - 29 percent. New York State likely voters approve 52 - 34 percent of the job Gillibrand is doing and give her a 49 - 24 percent favorability rating. For DioGuardi, 61 percent don't know enough about him to form an opinion. Sen. Charles Schumer tops Republican challenger Jay Townsend 63 - 32 percent. The Democrat gets a 64 - 33 percent approval rating and a 62 - 31 percent favorability score, while 65 percent haven't heard enough about Townsend to form an opinion. "If Republicans are going to take back the U.S. Senate, it doesn't look as if New York will be much help. Both New York seats are on the ballot and Gillibrand and Schumer have comfortable leads," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. In the closest statewide race in New York, the race for State Attorney General, New York State likely voters back Democratic State Sen. Eric Schneiderman 43 - 32 percent over Staten Island District Attorney Dan Donovan. But 24 percent of voters are undecided and 39 percent of those who select a candidate say they might change their mind by Election Day. Neither candidate is well known: 75 percent of voters don't know enough about Schneiderman to form an opinion and 85 percent don't know enough about Donovan. Democratic State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli leads Republican challenger Harry Wilson 49 - 31 percent, with 20 percent undecided and 38 percent who might change their mind. Ninety percent of voters don't know enough about Wilson to form an opinion, compared to 65 percent who don't know enough about DiNapoli. "There seems to be about a one-third generic Republican vote. All the Republican candidates for New York statewide office are within a couple of points of it," Carroll said. "Harry Wilson wins the anonymity prize. Nine out of ten of New Yorkers don't know enough about him to give a thumbs-up or thumbs-down rating. But you have to wonder if anybody is paying attention. Even Sen. Eric Schneiderman and State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli come up short on public recognition." From October 1 - 5, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,141 New York State likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Kirsten Gillibrand the Democrat and Joe DioGuardi the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Gillibrand or DioGuardi? (This table includes Leaners) LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Gillibrand 55% 20% 87% 49% 51% 59% DioGuardi 34 72 6 36 39 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 11 9 7 14 9 12 RATING ECONOMY Q24 PrtOf Angry with Better Worse Same TeaPt FedGovQ26 Gillibrand 81% 35% 66% 19% 29% DioGuardi 11 54 23 64 59 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 8 11 10 17 12 UpSt NYC Sub Gillibrand 53% 63% 48% DioGuardi 38 24 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 9 13 13 TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Kirsten Gillibrand the Democrat and Joe DioGuardi the Republican,for whom would you vote?(If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Gillibrand or DioGuardi? (This table includes Leaners) LIKELY VOTERS.. Oct 08 Sep 23 2010 2010 Gillibrand 55 48 DioGuardi 34 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 11 9 4a.Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS......... CAND CHOICE Q4 Tot KG JD Made up 77% 76% 79% Might change 22 24 20 DK/NA 1 1 1 5. Is your opinion of - Kirsten Gillibrand favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 49% 29% 74% 37% 46% 52% Unfavorable 24 44 6 29 32 17 Hvn't hrd enough 24 25 19 30 20 28 REFUSED 3 1 1 4 2 3 TREND: Is your opinion of Kirsten Gillibrand favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? LIKELY VOTERS.. Oct 08 Sep 23 2010 2010 Favorable 49 43 Unfavorable 24 32 Hvn't hrd enough 24 24 REFUSED 3 1 6. Is your opinion of - Joe DioGuardi favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 27% 48% 11% 28% 32% 22% Unfavorable 11 4 16 11 10 12 Hvn't hrd enough 61 48 71 60 57 64 REFUSED 2 - 2 1 2 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Joe DioGuardi favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.. Oct 08 Sep 23 2010 2010 Favorable 27 26 Unfavorable 11 12 Hvn't hrd enough 61 61 REFUSED 2 2 7. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Charles Schumer the Democrat and Jay Townsend the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Schumer or Townsend? (This table includes Leaners) LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Schumer 63% 28% 94% 56% 59% 68% Townsend 32 69 4 37 38 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 4 3 2 6 3 5 RATING ECONOMY Q24 PrtOf Angry with Better Worse Same TeaPt FedGovQ26 Schumer 90% 42% 75% 23% 29% Townsend 7 53 22 75 66 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 2 4 3 3 4 UpSt NYC Sub Schumer 58% 74% 57% Townsend 37 23 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 4 2 6 TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Charles Schumer the Democrat and Jay Townsend the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Schumer or Townsend? (This table includes Leaners) LIKELY VOTERS.. Oct 08 Sep 23 2010 2010 Schumer 63 54 Townsend 32 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 4 7 7a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS......... CAND CHOICE Q7 Tot CS JT Made up 85% 85% 84% Might change 14 14 15 DK/NA 1 1 1 8. Is your opinion of - Charles Schumer favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 62% 29% 92% 54% 55% 69% Unfavorable 31 62 4 37 39 23 Hvn't hrd enough 5 6 4 7 5 6 REFUSED 1 3 1 2 1 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Charles Schumer favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.. Oct 08 Sep 23 2010 2010 Favorable 62 55 Unfavorable 31 37 Hvn't hrd enough 5 8 REFUSED 1 1 9. Is your opinion of - Jay Townsend favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 22% 42% 7% 24% 27% 17% Unfavorable 12 3 18 10 11 12 Hvn't hrd enough 65 54 74 64 60 70 REFUSED 1 2 - 1 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Jay Townsend favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.. Oct 08 Sep 23 2010 2010 Favorable 22 21 Unfavorable 12 9 Hvn't hrd enough 65 70 REFUSED 1 1 12. Is your opinion of - Eric Schneiderman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 17% 9% 31% 8% 17% 17% Unfavorable 7 8 3 8 9 5 Hvn't hrd enough 75 82 65 81 74 76 REFUSED 1 1 - 3 - 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Eric Schneiderman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.. Oct 08 Sep 23 2010 2010 Favorable 17 14 Unfavorable 7 9 Hvn't hrd enough 75 77 REFUSED 1 1 13. Is your opinion of - Dan Donovan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 9% 15% 8% 6% 10% 9% Unfavorable 4 4 4 4 7 2 Hvn't hrd enough 85 79 87 90 83 87 REFUSED 2 3 1 1 1 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Dan Donovan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.. Oct 08 Sep 23 2010 2010 Favorable 9 9 Unfavorable 4 5 Hvn't hrd enough 85 86 REFUSED 2 1 14. If the election for State Attorney General were being held today, and the candidates were Eric Schneiderman the Democrat and Dan Donovan the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Schneiderman or Donovan? (This table includes Leaners) LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Schneiderman 43% 12% 76% 30% 40% 46% Donovan 32 67 7 36 36 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 3 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 24 21 16 31 22 25 UpSt NYC Sub Schneiderman 37% 54% 40% Donovan 35 24 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 28 21 20 TREND: If the election for State Attorney General were being held today, and the candidates were Eric Schneiderman the Democrat and Dan Donovan the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Schneiderman or Donovan? (This table includes Leaners) LIKELY VOTERS.. Oct 08 Sep 23 2010 2010 Schneiderman 43 37 Donovan 32 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 24 27 14a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS......... CAND CHOICE Q14 Tot ES DD Made up 60% 60% 60% Might change 39 40 39 DK/NA 1 1 1 15. Is your opinion of - Thomas DiNapoli favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 23% 18% 27% 21% 26% 20% Unfavorable 11 14 10 10 15 7 Hvn't hrd enough 65 67 63 64 58 71 REFUSED 2 1 - 4 1 3 TREND: Is your opinion of Thomas DiNapoli favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.. Oct 08 Sep 23 2010 2010 Favorable 23 21 Unfavorable 11 11 Hvn't hrd enough 65 66 REFUSED 2 1 16. Is your opinion of - Harry Wilson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 7% 9% 7% 6% 9% 6% Unfavorable 3 1 3 2 4 1 Hvn't hrd enough 90 90 89 91 87 93 REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Harry Wilson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.. Oct 08 Sep 23 2010 2010 Favorable 7 7 Unfavorable 3 1 Hvn't hrd enough 90 91 REFUSED 1 1 17. If the election for State Comptroller were being held today, and the candidates were Thomas DiNapoli the Democrat and Harry Wilson the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for DiNapoli or Wilson? (This table includes Leaners) LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom DiNapoli 49% 17% 80% 38% 46% 51% Wilson 31 65 7 34 37 24 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 20 19 13 27 16 23 UpSt NYC Sub DiNapoli 41% 54% 55% Wilson 37 23 30 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 20 23 14 TREND. If the election for State Comptroller were being held today, and the candidates were Thomas DiNapoli the Democrat and Harry Wilson the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for DiNapoli or Wilson? (This table includes Leaners) LIKELY VOTERS.. Oct 08 Sep 23 2010 2010 DiNapoli 49 46 Wilson 31 30 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 20 24 17a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS......... CAND CHOICE Q17 Tot TD HW Made up 60% 60% 61% Might change 38 39 37 DK/NA 1 1 2 19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kirsten Gillibrand is handling her job as United States Senator? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 52% 28% 78% 46% 46% 58% Disapprove 34 61 12 40 41 27 DK/NA 14 11 10 14 13 15 20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 64% 33% 92% 57% 58% 71% Disapprove 33 63 6 39 40 25 DK/NA 3 4 2 4 2 4 26. I am going to mention four phrases and ask you which one best describes how you feel about the way the federal government works. Do you feel enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not angry, or angry? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Enthusiastic 2% - 5% 1% 1% 3% Sat/Not enthusiastic 23 11 37 15 21 24 Dis/Not angry 43 45 45 41 43 44 Angry 30 44 12 40 35 26 DK/NA 1 - 1 4 1 2
