April 5, 2012 - Romney Tops Santorum 2-1 In New York GOP Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Obama, Gillibrand Both Have Big Leads Word format Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney thumps former Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum 54 - 21 percent among likely Republican primary voters in New York State, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has 9 percent and Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul has 8 percent. This is the first measure of likely Republican voters in New York by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University and can't be compared with earlier surveys of registered voters. Eight percent of likely GOP primary voters remain undecided and 39 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind before the April 24 New York presidential primary. Romney tops Santorum 60 - 17 percent among men and 48 - 25 percent among women. The former governor also leads among groups which have gone to Santorum in other states, 49 - 26 percent among self-described conservatives and 45 - 26 percent among Tea Party members. "Assuming the numbers hold until April 24, Gov. Mitt Romney sweeps the statewide Republican vote - good for 34 delegates to the party convention. The question is whether Santorum can pick off one of the 29 districts, each good for two delegates?" said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. President Barack Obama and Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand have big leads - 2-1 in the Senate race - over possible challengers among New York State registered voters, New York State voters approve 56 - 38 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, his best score in almost a year and up from a 50 - 46 percent approval rating February 15. Today, women approve of the president 59 - 34 percent, up from 52 - 42 percent in February. Men approve 52 - 43 percent, up from a negative 46 - 49 percent. Independent voters split 45 - 45 percent, up from a negative 41 - 54 percent. Obama leads Romney 56 - 33 percent and tops Santorum 59 - 30 percent. Women back Obama over Romney 60 - 27 percent while men go Democratic 52 - 39 percent. Obama leads 45 - 37 percent among independent voters and 91 - 3 percent among Democrats. Republicans back Romney 87 - 8 percent. "New York is still a super-blue state. President Barack Obama trounces any of the GOP challengers in a general election match-up," Carroll said. "That 94 - 1 percent lead among black voters gives the president a jumbo cushion." U.S. Senate Race U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand has a 60 - 21 percent approval rating, her highest score ever and topping her previous high of 54 - 22 percent in a June 29, 2011, Quinnipiac University poll. Today, approval is 77 - 6 percent among Democrats and 58 - 21 percent among independent voters. Republicans disapprove 49 - 36 percent. Men approve 57 - 26 percent while women approve 63 - 16 percent. Gillibrand leads possible Republican challengers by margins of 2-1 or higher: 57 - 27 percent over Brooklyn/Queens U.S. Rep. Robert Turner; 57 - 23 percent over Nassau County Comptroller George Maragos; 58 - 25 percent over businesswoman Wendy Long. In the Senate primary, 57 percent of Republicans are undecided. Turner has 19 percent, followed by Long with 11 percent and Maragos with 7 percent. "If a happy campaign is one with a lot of opponents, even happier is one with a lot of anonymous opponents," Carroll said. "Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's three opponents, so far, fall short of even the generic GOP vote. But it's seven long months until Election Day." From March 28 - April 2, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,597 New York State voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 372 likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percent. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Gingrich, Romney, Santorum or Paul? (Table includes leaners and early voters) LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS............. TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Gingrich 9% 7% 12% 10% 7% 13% 8% Romney 54 60 48 49 66 45 57 Santorum 21 17 25 26 14 26 19 Paul 8 10 5 9 3 9 8 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 - 1 - - DK/NA 8 6 10 6 10 7 8 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K Gingrich 10% 9% 10% 8% 12% Romney 62 51 41 57 69 Santorum 20 21 25 19 14 Paul 5 9 13 7 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 - - DK/NA 3 10 11 7 2 1a. (Candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1 CAND CHOICE Tot MR RS Mind made up 59% 71% 47% Might change 39 26 53 DK/NA 2 3 - 2. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were: Wendy Long, Bob Turner, and George Maragos, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Tot Men Wom Long 11% 11% 11% Turner 19 24 13 Maragos 7 8 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 5 2 DK/NA 57 50 67 3. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and - Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHld Obama 56% 8% 91% 45% 52% 60% 46% 94% 56% Romney 33 87 3 37 39 27 43 1 32 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 3 3 1 2 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 4 2 3 3 1 3 DK/NA 7 3 4 11 5 9 6 4 7 WHITE............................................... COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Miltry Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No HsHld Obama 60% 36% 38% 36% 42% 49% 25% 38% 43% Romney 33 50 49 53 49 37 61 50 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 1 3 1 4 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 5 4 3 3 4 4 4 6 DK/NA 5 7 6 7 3 9 7 7 7 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Obama 65% 51% 63% 56% 54% 55% 66% 55% 54% Romney 27 36 25 30 35 40 22 34 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 3 2 - 5 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 4 2 3 3 1 3 2 3 DK/NA 6 8 9 7 6 4 5 8 5 TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election") Apr 05 Feb 15 Dec 21 2012 2012 2011 Obama 56 52 53 Romney 33 35 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 2 DK/NA 7 7 7 4. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and - Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHld Obama 59% 11% 92% 52% 55% 63% 49% 95% 59% Santorum 30 83 3 31 34 26 39 1 30 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 - 4 3 1 2 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 1 5 3 3 4 - 3 DK/NA 6 2 4 8 6 7 6 3 7 WHITE............................................... COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Miltry Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No HsHld Obama 65% 39% 41% 38% 47% 52% 26% 42% 45% Santorum 29 46 45 50 43 35 59 46 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 3 1 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 5 5 4 3 4 5 4 6 DK/NA 3 8 7 6 4 7 8 6 8 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Obama 68% 53% 65% 58% 57% 60% 68% 58% 58% Santorum 23 34 24 31 31 35 22 31 32 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 2 1 3 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 4 2 3 4 2 3 3 3 DK/NA 5 7 8 5 7 3 4 7 6 TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote? Apr 05 Feb 15 2012 2012 Obama 59 53 Santorum 30 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 DK/NA 6 7 5. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were - Bob Turner the Republican and Kirsten Gillibrand the Democrat, for whom would you vote? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHld Turner 27% 75% 5% 26% 33% 21% 33% 3% 25% Gillibrand 57 14 87 50 51 62 51 86 61 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 2 2 2 1 2 DK/NA 13 9 6 20 12 14 13 7 12 6. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were - George Maragos the Republican and Kirsten Gillibrand the Democrat, for whom would you vote? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHld Maragos 23% 68% 3% 22% 29% 18% 30% 1% 22% Gillibrand 57 16 86 49 51 62 52 80 62 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 4 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 1 4 3 2 2 3 2 DK/NA 15 14 7 23 15 16 14 12 13 7. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were - Wendy Long the Republican and Conservative party candidate and Kirsten Gillibrand the Democratic party candidate, for whom would you vote? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHld Long 25% 70% 3% 24% 29% 20% 30% 4% 23% Gillibrand 58 17 89 51 52 64 53 85 63 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 4 3 2 3 1 2 DK/NA 13 10 5 20 13 13 12 8 12 9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHld Approve 63% 42% 78% 61% 62% 64% 61% 73% 70% Disapprove 25 48 12 26 30 21 28 13 23 DK/NA 12 10 10 13 7 16 10 14 7 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Approve 71% 58% 61% 66% 63% 69% 62% 64% 65% Disapprove 22 28 21 26 27 28 23 25 26 DK/NA 8 14 18 7 10 4 15 11 9 UpStat NYC Sub Approve 56% 71% 63% Disapprove 27 21 29 DK/NA 16 8 9 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator? (*High also 69% Oct 2001) APPROVE....... High Low Apr 05 Feb 15 Dec 21 Oct 26 Sep 20 Dec 08 Apr 15 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2004* 1999 Approve 63 60 62 61 59 69 51 Disapprove 25 29 27 28 31 16 22 DK/NA 12 11 11 11 9 15 28 10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kirsten Gillibrand is handling her job as United States Senator? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHld Approve 60% 36% 77% 58% 57% 63% 58% 68% 62% Disapprove 21 49 6 21 26 16 26 7 22 DK/NA 19 15 17 21 17 21 17 25 17 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Approve 68% 55% 59% 62% 61% 63% 61% 60% 61% Disapprove 17 24 16 27 21 23 17 20 23 DK/NA 16 21 25 10 18 14 21 20 16 UpStat NYC Sub Approve 59% 63% 57% Disapprove 23 16 25 DK/NA 18 20 18 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kirsten Gillibrand is handling her job as United States Senator? APPROVE....... High Low Apr 05 Feb 15 Dec 21 Oct 26 Sep 20 Apr 05 Feb 17 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2012 2009 Approve 60 47 50 50 52 60 28 Disapprove 21 26 23 24 23 21 10 DK/NA 19 27 27 26 24 19 62 11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHld Approve 56% 11% 88% 45% 52% 59% 45% 95% 57% Disapprove 38 87 9 45 43 34 49 4 37 DK/NA 6 2 3 10 5 6 6 1 6 WHITE............................................... COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Miltry Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No HsHld Approve 59% 36% 43% 36% 42% 48% 27% 40% 45% Disapprove 36 58 54 58 53 45 70 54 50 DK/NA 5 6 4 6 5 7 3 6 4 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Approve 64% 51% 61% 57% 54% 55% 64% 56% 53% Disapprove 30 43 32 38 41 41 32 38 41 DK/NA 5 6 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? APPROVE....... High Low Apr 05 Feb 15 Dec 21 Oct 26 Sep 20 Feb 19 Aug 12 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2009 2011 Approve 56 50 50 50 50 72 45 Disapprove 38 46 45 45 45 17 49 DK/NA 6 5 5 5 6 10 6 Demographic Summary
