December 19, 2002 - Bush, Pataki Approval At Pre-September 11 Levels, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Bush Vs. Sen. Clinton Would Be Close In New York New York State voters approve 58 - 31 percent of the job Gov. George Pataki is doing, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This is down from the 81 - 12 percent approval for Gov. Pataki measured in an October 2, 2001, poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, and comparable to a 56 - 30 percent approval on June 26, 2001. President George W. Bush has a 51 - 42 percent approval, down from 82 - 15 percent approval October 2, 2001, but better than his negative 44 - 47 percent rating June 28, 2001. New York State voters split 46 - 44 percent on whether President Bush should keep Vice President Dick Cheney on the 2002 reelection ticket. If Bush replaces Cheney, New Yorkers split 45 - 46 percent on whether Pataki should be the running mate. "New Yorkers still like the job Gov. Pataki is doing in Albany, but he's slipped back to his pre-9/11 job approval. Voters split down the middle over whether their Governor should go to Washington," said Maurice Carroll director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Next question: What will Pataki do? Four more years in Albany, most New Yorkers think." Pataki will serve his full third term, 85 percent of voters expect. A total of 51 percent of New York voters are "very satisfied" or "somewhat satisfied" with the way things are going in the state today, with 48 percent who are "somewhat dissatisfied" or "very dissatisfied." This is the lowest rating since Quinnipiac University began measuring satisfaction in New York in December, 1997. Voters give Pataki negative approval ratings for his handling of key issues: 35 - 53 percent for his handling of the state budget; 40 - 51 percent for his handling of taxes; 38 - 53 percent for his handling of the economy and jobs. Pataki gets a 46 - 46 percent split for his handling of education. Voters say 64 - 32 percent that Pataki has strong leadership qualities and 59 - 29 percent that he is honest and trustworthy. "The same voters who think Pataki is doing a decent job overall give him low marks on key pocketbook issues," Carroll said. "Those character traits - that he's honest and a strong leader - are helping Pataki overcome low approval ratings." Presidential Matchups Former Vice President Al Gore would have given President Bush a run for his money in New York State, with voters splitting 48 - 47 percent in an early look at the 2004 race. Sen. Hillary Clinton trails Bush 48 - 45 percent. Among Democrats, Gore led the possible pack with 40 percent, followed by Sen. Clinton with 24 percent and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry with 11 percent. No other Democratic contender broke out of single digits. From December 9 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 999 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent. The survey includes 382 Democrats with a margin of error of 5 percent. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and nationwide as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling his job as Governor? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 58% 78% 47% 53% 63% 53% 52% Disapprove 31 14 42 32 28 33 37 DK/NA 11 8 11 15 9 14 11 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub Approve 52% 64% 60% 50% 66% Disapprove 30 25 27 40 22 DK/NA 17 11 13 10 12 2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 57% 50% 65% 55% 55% 59% 61% Disapprove 22 29 15 21 26 18 19 DK/NA 21 20 19 24 19 23 20 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub Approve 59% 49% 52% 62% 57% Disapprove 22 26 25 20 20 DK/NA 19 25 23 18 23 3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hillary Rodham Clinton is handling her job as United States Senator? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 57% 36% 79% 47% 49% 63% 60% Disapprove 31 51 11 38 38 25 28 DK/NA 12 13 10 15 12 12 12 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub Approve 63% 46% 51% 66% 52% Disapprove 25 41 37 21 38 DK/NA 12 13 13 13 9 4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 51% 85% 28% 47% 55% 48% 43% Disapprove 42 10 64 45 40 44 50 DK/NA 7 6 8 8 6 8 7 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub Approve 57% 60% 60% 37% 59% Disapprove 35 33 34 56 35 DK/NA 8 7 7 7 6 5. Do you think George Pataki will serve out his entire 4 year term as governor or not? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Yes 85% 89% 84% 85% 86% 85% 86% No 7 6 7 6 6 8 7 DK/NA 8 5 8 9 8 8 7 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub Yes 83% 88% 87% 83% 87% No 8 6 7 8 4 DK/NA 9 6 7 9 9 6. - Now I'm going to name eight Democrats who might run for president in 2004. After I read all eight names, tell me which one you would most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004. Here are the choices... Former Vice President Al Gore, New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle, Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, or Vermont Governor Howard Dean? Democrats Gore 40% Clinton 24 Daschle 5 Lieberman 7 Kerry 11 Gephardt 4 Edwards 2 Dean 1 DK/NA 6 7. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Gore 48% 10% 79% 46% 41% 54% 56% Bush 47 88 17 46 53 41 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 3 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE (VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 DK/NA 2 1 2 3 2 2 1 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub Gore 44% 32% 36% 65% 41% Bush 52 60 57 30 56 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 1 2 - DK/NA 3 4 4 1 1 8. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Clinton 45% 10% 73% 42% 36% 53% 51% Bush 48 87 21 45 56 40 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 4 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 5 4 1 3 DK/NA 3 2 3 3 2 4 3 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub Clinton 48% 31% 36% 64% 29% Bush 48 61 57 29 62 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 3 2 3 2 DK/NA 3 2 2 3 5 9. Thinking about the next presidential election, do you think George W. Bush should keep Dick Cheney on the ticket as vice president or do you think Bush should consider replacing Cheney with a different running mate? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Keep Cheney 46% 67% 34% 43% 53% 40% 43% Replace Cheney 44 25 53 48 37 49 46 DK/NA 10 8 13 9 10 11 11 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub Keep Cheney 55% 47% 49% 41% 48% Replace Cheney 35 42 40 50 40 DK/NA 11 11 11 9 12 10. Suppose Bush decides not to keep Cheney on the ticket in the next election. Would you like to see Bush select New York Governor George Pataki as his Vice Presidential running mate or not? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Yes 45% 51% 45% 38% 43% 46% 41% No 46 43 44 50 46 45 51 DK/NA 10 6 11 11 11 9 8 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub Yes 41% 45% 44% 43% 49% No 53 48 49 44 42 DK/NA 6 8 7 13 9 11. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New York State today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Very satisfied 7% 13% 3% 5% 8% 6% 4% Smwht satisfied 44 57 39 41 46 43 41 Smwht dissatisfied 27 19 31 31 26 28 29 Very dissatisfied 21 12 26 22 19 23 26 DK/NA - - 1 - 1 - - UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub Very satisfied 4% 8% 7% 5% 10% Smwht satisfied 44 47 46 36 56 Smwht dissatisfied 27 26 26 32 20 Very dissatisfied 25 18 20 27 13 DK/NA - 1 - 1 - 12. Would you say that George Pataki has strong leadership qualities or not? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Yes 64% 80% 59% 56% 61% 67% 57% No 32 18 37 40 36 30 40 DK/NA 3 2 4 4 4 3 3 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub Yes 67% 69% 69% 57% 67% No 29 28 28 38 31 DK/NA 4 2 3 5 3 13. Would you say that George Pataki is honest and trustworthy or not? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Yes 59% 77% 51% 55% 62% 57% 58% No 29 19 35 35 31 28 29 DK/NA 11 5 14 10 7 14 13 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub Yes 58% 65% 63% 52% 65% No 31 27 28 33 26 DK/NA 10 8 9 15 9 14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling the state budget? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 35% 53% 27% 30% 38% 32% 34% Disapprove 53 40 59 55 52 53 55 DK/NA 13 7 14 15 10 15 11 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub Approve 33% 34% 34% 33% 40% Disapprove 58 54 55 54 46 DK/NA 9 12 11 14 14 15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling education? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 46% 62% 39% 39% 49% 43% 41% Disapprove 46 32 53 51 43 48 50 DK/NA 8 6 8 10 8 9 9 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub Approve 50% 52% 51% 33% 57% Disapprove 42 41 41 56 37 DK/NA 8 8 8 10 7 16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling taxes? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 40% 57% 34% 33% 42% 37% 34% Disapprove 51 39 54 57 49 53 59 DK/NA 9 4 13 10 9 10 7 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub Approve 39% 44% 42% 31% 49% Disapprove 50 50 50 58 41 DK/NA 11 7 8 11 10 17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling the economy and jobs? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 38% 57% 29% 32% 45% 32% 37% Disapprove 53 35 63 58 47 59 56 DK/NA 9 8 7 10 8 9 7 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub Approve 33% 40% 38% 33% 48% Disapprove 58 54 55 57 43 DK/NA 9 6 7 10 10 Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling his job as Governor of New York? App Dis DK/NA December 18, 2002 58% 31% 11% September 26, 2002 62 26 12 July 2, 2002 66 18 17 September 25, 2002 62 26 12 July 2, 2002 66 18 17 May 1, 2002 67 19 14 April 18, 2002 66 19 15 February 27, 2002 70 18 13 January 23, 2002 70 16 14 November 14, 2001 78 12 10 October 2, 2001 81 12 7 June 26, 2001 56 30 14 April 24, 2001 58 27 15 March 28, 2001 61 24 16 February 14, 2001 57 28 15 December 14, 2000 66 23 11 August 10, 2000 61 24 15 July 13, 2000 60 27 12 June 7, 2000 62 25 13 May 16, 2000 63 27 10 May 2, 2000 58 29 12 April 6, 2000 56 31 13 March 2, 2000 57 31 12 February 10, 2000 57 32 12 January 20, 2000 60 29 11 December 14, 1999 60 29 11 November 11, 1999 60 29 12 October 5, 1999 57 31 11 September 15, 1999 60 27 12 August 2, 1999 56 34 10 July 1, 1999 54 35 11 May 24, 1999 58 32 10 April 25, 1999 57 31 12 April 15, 1999 59 31 10 March 24, 1999 60 30 11 February 24, 1999 60 27 13 February 4, 1999 64 27 8 October 28, 1998 64 25 11 October 15, 1998 63 26 11 September 27, 1998 62 26 11 June 17, 1998 64 29 7 March 25, 1998 69 24 7 February 25, 1998 70 22 8 December 10, 1997 62 30 7 September 24, 1997 60 35 6 July 22, 1997 52 41 7 April 24, 1997 54 35 11 March 4, 1997 56 34 10 October 30, 1996 53 31 16 September 22, 1996 51 35 14 June 18, 1996 46 45 9 April 28, 1996 48 40 12 March 4, 1996 47 41 12 December 11, 1995 46 40 14 November 6, 1995 42 41 18 April 27, 1995 41 40 20 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator? App Dis DK/NA December 18, 2002 57% 22% 21% September 26, 2002 58 17 25 July 3, 2002 61 17 22 May 1, 2002 58 18 24 April 18, 2002 60 17 23 February 27, 2002 61 16 23 January 25, 2002 63 17 21 November 14, 2001 64 16 20 October 2, 2001 69 11 19 June 28, 2001 60 18 22 April 26, 2001 61 17 22 March 28, 2001 60 18 22 February 14, 2001 56 21 23 December 13, 2000 62 19 19 May 2, 2000 52 18 30 November 11, 1999 55 19 26 September 16, 1999 55 18 27 April 15, 1999 51 22 28 March 23, 1999 52 20 28 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hillary Rodham Clinton is handling her job as United States Senator? App Dis DK/NA December 18, 2002 57% 31% 12% September 26, 2002 53 35 12 July 3, 2002 56 31 13 May 1, 2002 57 30 13 April 18, 2002 58 28 13 February 27, 2002 58 32 10 January 25, 2002 55 31 14 November 14, 2001 54 34 13 October 2, 2001 59 28 12 June 28, 2001 52 31 17 April 26, 2001 47 34 19 March 28, 2001 40 38 23 February 14, 2001 38 30 33 Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? App Dis DK/NA December 18, 2002 51% 42% 7% September 26, 2002 58 36 6 July 3, 2002 64 28 8 May 1, 2002 69 25 6 April 22, 2002 68 27 5 February 27, 2002 74 20 6 January 25, 2002 80 16 4 November 14, 2001 82 15 3 October 2, 2001 82 14 4 June 28, 2001 44 47 9 April 26, 2001 50 40 10 March 28, 2001 48 38 15 February 14, 2001 45 30 24 In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New York State today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? Very Smwht Smwht Very Sat Sat DisSat DisSat DK/NA December 18, 2002 7% 44% 27% 21% - September 26, 2002 8 54 23 14 1 January 24, 2002 12 58 21 8 1 December 27, 2000 13 57 20 8 1 March 25, 1998 12 55 23 9 1 February 25, 1998 13 60 20 7 1 December 10, 1997 9 51 27 12 1
