January 19, 2000 - Gore Locked In Tie With Bradley In New York Primary, Quinnipiac College Poll Finds; Bush Holds Big Lead Over Mccain In GOP Primary Vice President Al Gore remains locked in a tie with former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley in a New York State Democratic Primary, with 44 percent for Gore and 39 percent for Bradley, according to a Quinnipiac College poll released today. Texas Gov. George W. Bush leads Arizona Sen. John McCain 47 - 28 percent among New York Republican voters. In a December 14 New York poll by the independent Quinnipiac College, Gore had 42 percent to Bradley's 39 percent, a statistical tie. In a November 11 New York poll, Bradley led 47 - 38 percent. In a January 13 Quinnipiac College poll of New Hampshire Democratic Primary voters, however, Bradley beat Gore 47 - 37 percent. From January 11 - 17, Quinnipiac College surveyed 812 New York State registered voters. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percent. The survey includes 330 registered Democrats, with a margin of error for that group of +/- 5.4 percent, and 246 Republicans, with a margin of error of 6.3 percent. "Has the Bradley wave crested? Quinnipiac College's numbers for the former New Jersey Senator in the New York Presidential Primary haven't budged since December, while Vice President Gore has edged up just enough to be on the right side of a very close horse race," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac College Polling Institute. "Bush has tied up just about all of New York's Republican leadership and he scores strongly with rank-and-file as well. "A Bradley win in New Hampshire next month could scramble the mix in New York. On the Republican side, McCain probably will be knocked off the ballot in much of the state and voters don't seem to know or care much about the ballot-access issue," Carroll added. In possible general election matchups: Gore beats Bush 47 - 39 percent, unchanged from December; Bradley beats Bush 52 - 35 percent, compared to December's 50 - 35 percent lead; Gore beats McCain 47 - 38 percent; Bradley beats McCain 49 - 39. By a 31 - 27 percent margin, New York voters have a favorable opinion of Gore, with 34 percent mixed and 7 percent saying they haven't heard enough to form an opinion. Favorability ratings among other presidential contenders are: Favorable Unfavorable Mixed No Opinion Bill Bradley 36 10 28 26 George W. Bush 28 33 31 8 John McCain 31 9 24 36 Only 32 percent of New York State voters say they've heard or read something about the issue of how candidates qualify to appear on primary election ballots, while 68 percent say they have heard nothing about it. Among all New York voters, 49 percent say the ballot rules should be changed so that any nationally recognized candidate can appear on a presidential primary ballot in New York, while 44 percent say keep the present petition system. Among those who say they have heard or read something about the issue, 63 percent support easier primary ballot access while 34 percent say keep the petition system. The Quinnipiac College Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 287-5201 12. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for President -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all? Tot Ups NYC Sub Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A lot 30% 30% 26% 34% 36% 27% 29% 34% 26% Some 45 43 45 51 47 46 44 47 44 Only a little 19 23 21 12 15 22 20 14 24 None at all 5 4 7 3 2 4 6 5 5 DK/NA - - - - - - - 13. Is your opinion of Vice President Al Gore favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Ups NYC Sub Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 31% 27% 34% 31% 13% 47% 27% 29% 32% Unfavorable 27 31 21 28 53 10 27 34 21 Mixed 34 35 32 36 27 35 38 31 37 Haven't hrd enough 7 6 12 5 7 7 7 5 9 REFUSED - - 1 - - - - - 1 14. Is your opinion of former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Ups NYC Sub Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 36% 27% 38% 50% 29% 42% 35% 45% 29% Unfavorable 10 12 12 6 14 7 10 11 9 Mixed 28 30 24 28 35 23 29 28 27 Haven't hrd enough 26 31 26 16 21 29 26 16 34 REFUSED - - - - - - - - - 15. Is your opinion of former Family Research Council President Gary Bauer favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Ups NYC Sub Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 4% 5% 3% 5% 7% 2% 4% 4% 4% Unfavorable 15 11 18 17 12 19 13 18 12 Mixed 7 5 7 9 10 6 4 8 5 Haven't hrd enough 74 79 72 70 69 72 78 70 78 REFUSED - - 1 - 1 - - 1 - 16. Is your opinion of Texas Governor George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Ups NYC Sub Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 28% 35% 19% 27% 59% 13% 23% 31% 25% Unfavorable 33 26 36 40 13 51 31 34 32 Mixed 31 31 33 28 23 26 38 29 33 Haven't hrd enough 8 7 12 5 4 9 8 7 9 REFUSED - - - - - - - - 1 17. Is your opinion of Businessman Steve Forbes favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Ups NYC Sub Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 10% 12% 5% 13% 19% 5% 11% 12% 8% Unfavorable 34 29 37 39 31 36 36 36 32 Mixed 26 26 21 30 31 24 22 30 22 Haven't hrd enough 30 32 36 18 19 35 30 21 37 REFUSED - - - - - - - - - 18. Is your opinion of Utah Senator Orrin Hatch favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Ups NYC Sub Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 8% 10% 5% 10% 15% 4% 9% 11% 6% Unfavorable 25 21 28 28 15 32 24 28 22 Mixed 15 15 12 19 20 10 18 17 13 Haven't hrd enough 52 54 55 43 49 54 49 45 58 REFUSED - - - - - - - - - 19. Is your opinion of Political Commentator Alan Keyes favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Ups NYC Sub Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 9% 8% 8% 11% 16% 5% 8% 12% 7% Unfavorable 14 12 17 13 12 17 13 19 9 Mixed 10 10 9 13 13 9 12 12 9 Haven't hrd enough 66 69 66 63 59 70 66 57 74 REFUSED - 1 - - - - 1 - - 20. Is your opinion of Arizona Senator John McCain favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Ups NYC Sub Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 31% 30% 26% 37% 40% 23% 33% 41% 21% Unfavorable 9 8 10 9 6 12 9 11 7 Mixed 24 26 22 24 24 23 25 23 25 Haven't hrd enough 36 35 41 30 30 42 32 24 46 REFUSED - - 1 - - - - - - 21. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Vice President Al Gore the Democrat, and Texas Governor George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Ups NYC Sub Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Gore 47% 37% 59% 49% 10% 79% 44% 43% 51% Bush 39 48 27 41 81 12 38 44 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 2 2 3 1 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 3 2 3 5 4 3 DK/NA 8 9 9 5 5 5 11 7 9 22. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley the Democrat, and Texas Governor George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Ups NYC Sub Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Bradley 52% 40% 62% 59% 17% 76% 53% 53% 51% Bush 35 44 25 32 73 13 31 37 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 3 - 2 2 3 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 3 1 1 2 3 2 2 DK/NA 9 11 7 8 7 7 11 6 11 23. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Vice President Al Gore the Democrat, and Arizona Senator John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Ups NYC Sub Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Gore 47% 37% 62% 43% 14% 77% 40% 41% 52% McCain 38 45 26 42 70 12 43 46 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 3 1 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 4 2 1 2 2 3 2 DK/NA 11 14 6 13 12 7 13 9 13 24. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley the Democrat, and Arizona Senator John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Ups NYC Sub Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Bradley 49% 37% 60% 56% 20% 72% 46% 48% 50% McCain 29 36 21 28 62 11 28 36 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 2 1 3 1 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 5 2 2 3 5 4 4 DK/NA 16 21 12 13 13 13 17 10 21 26. If the Democratic Primary for President were being held today and the candidates were Vice President Al Gore and former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley, for whom would you vote? Registered Democrat Gore 44% Bradley 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 DK/NA 12 27. If the Republican Primary for President were being held today and the candidates were former Family Research Council President Gary Bauer, Texas Governor George W. Bush, Businessman Steve Forbes, Utah Senator Orrin Hatch, Political Commentator Alan Keyes, and Arizona Senator John McCain, for whom would you vote? Registered Republican Bauer 1% Bush 47 Forbes 5 Hatch 2 Keyes 2 McCain 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 DK/NA 13 30. Have you heard or read anything about the rules in New York State which regulate how candidates get on the Presidential primary ballots? Tot Ups NYC Sub Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 32% 32% 32% 30% 38% 29% 31% 40% 24% No 68 68 67 69 61 71 68 59 75 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 2 - 1 1 1 31. Which do you prefer?: (A) The current rules in New York State which require that a candidate obtain thousands of signatures from party members statewide to get on the Presidential primary ballot, or (B) Changing the current rules in New York State to allow any candidate who has national recognition to get on the Presidential primary ballot Have heard about Tot primary ballot rules (Q30) A. The current rules in New York State which require that a candidate Obtain thousands of signatures from party members statewide to get on the Presidential primary ballot. 44% 34% B. Changing the current rules in New York State to allow any candidate who has national recognition to get on the Presidential primary ballot. 49 63 DK/NA 8 3
