February 24, 1999 - Gore Would Beat Bush Or Dole In New York, Quinnipiac College Poll Finds; Bradley-Bush Would Be A Squeaker Democratic Vice President Al Gore tops Republican Texas Governor George Bush 49 - 40 percent in New York State in an early look at next years' presidential campaign, according to a Quinnipiac College poll released today. New Jersey native son Bill Bradley would get 41 percent to Bush's 38 percent, a statistical tie. The former New Jersey senator was the early favorite in a February 11 poll of Garden State voters by the independent Quinnipiac College. In that poll, Bradley beat Bush 55 - 32 percent and topped Elizabeth Dole 56 - 32 percent. In New York, Mrs. Dole, wife of former Republican presidential candidate Bob Dole, loses 50 - 37 percent to Gore and 46 - 34 percent to Bradley. "Once upon a time, New York was a swing state in presidential politics. But it takes an extraordinary Republican to win now. George Bush, the father, couldn't do it and it looks as if George Bush, the son, can't either," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac College Polling Institute. "Bradley is a neighbor and former Knick who polled well in New Jersey, but Vice President Gore, from inside the Beltway, still looks like the strongest Democrat and the strongest overall candidate in New York." In a Gore-Bush matchup, women back the Democrat 52 - 35 percent, while men are tied 45 - 46 percent. In a Gore-Dole race, women stay with the Democrat 51 - 35 percent, while men shift to 49 - 38 percent for the Democrat. By a 39 - 21 percent margin, voters have a favorable opinion of Gore, while 22 percent have a mixed opinion and 17 percent haven't heard enough to form an opinion. Among the other possible candidates: Favorable Unfavorable Mixed No Opinion Bradley 35% 4% 7% 53% Bush 32 13 9 45 Dole 40 12 13 34 Democrats are more popular than Republicans in New York State: - By a 39 - 17 percent margin, voters have a favorable opinion of the Democratic party, with 38 percent mixed. - Republicans have a 19 - 38 percent negative favorability rating, with 37 percent mixed. "Prediction: Republican moderates will be in trouble in the millennium year election. Safe districts are safe for Democratic or Republican incumbents. But where the GOP edge isn't overwhelming, it looks as if the Republican label on a candidate will be a liability," Carroll said. From February 16 - 21, Quinnipiac College surveyed 1,270 New Yorkers who say they are registered voters. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent. The Quinnipiac College Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling his job as Governor of New York? Tot Ups NYC Sub Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 60% 68% 44% 66% 88% 45% 59% 66% 55% Disapprove 27 21 41 21 6 41 28 24 31 DK/NA 13 11 15 13 6 14 13 10 15 2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as President? Tot Ups NYC Sub Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 70% 66% 82% 62% 40% 90% 71% 64% 75% Disapprove 27 31 16 34 57 8 27 33 22 DK/NA 3 3 2 4 3 2 2 3 3 21. Is your opinion of President Bill Clinton favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Ups NYC Sub Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 46% 40% 58% 40% 20% 69% 40% 45% 47% Unfavorable 28 34 15 35 61 6 29 33 24 Mixed 24 25 24 22 17 22 30 20 27 Haven't hrd enough 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 1 - 1 1 23. Is your opinion of Texas Governor George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Ups NYC Sub Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 32% 40% 20% 36% 58% 21% 29% 34% 31% Unfavorable 13 9 19 11 2 22 11 12 14 Mixed 9 8 13 6 5 10 12 10 8 Haven't heard enough 45 43 48 46 36 47 48 44 47 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 - 1 - - 1 24. Is your opinion of Vice President Al Gore favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Ups NYC Sub Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 39% 41% 45% 30% 20% 57% 33% 38% 41% Unfavorable 21 23 15 27 43 8 22 29 15 Mixed 22 22 21 23 22 17 27 20 23 Haven't heard enough 17 14 19 20 14 18 18 13 21 REFUSED - - - - - - - 1 - 25. Is your opinion of former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Ups NYC Sub Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 35% 26% 43% 41% 30% 39% 37% 46% 27% Unfavorable 4 3 5 6 7 3 2 6 3 Mixed 7 6 9 6 8 5 9 7 7 Haven't heard enough 53 65 42 46 54 52 51 41 63 REFUSED 1 1 1 - - - 1 1 - 26. Is your opinion of former Red Cross Chairwoman Elizabeth Dole favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her? Tot Ups NYC Sub Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 40% 51% 29% 38% 59% 32% 39% 35% 44% Unfavorable 12 9 14 14 4 16 12 13 11 Mixed 13 10 17 12 8 14 15 12 13 Haven't heard enough 34 30 39 36 28 38 33 38 31 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 - 27. If the election for President in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were Vice President Al Gore the Democrat and Texas Governor George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Ups NYC Sub Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Al Gore 49% 43% 66% 38% 10% 80% 43% 45% 52% George W. Bush 40 48 23 47 83 11 42 46 35 SOMEONE ELSE (VOL) 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 WOULDN'T VOTE (VOL) 2 1 2 3 1 - 3 2 1 DK/NA 8 7 8 10 5 7 10 5 10 28. If the election for President in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley the Democrat and Texas Governor George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Ups NYC Sub Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Bill Bradley 41% 30% 59% 37% 12% 64% 38% 42% 40% George W. Bush 38 48 21 44 76 16 38 43 35 SOMEONE ELSE (VOL) 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 WOULDN'T VOTE (VOL) 3 2 3 3 1 2 3 2 3 DK/NA 16 18 15 16 10 16 19 12 20 29. If the election for President in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were Vice President Al Gore the Democrat and former Red Cross Chairwoman Elizabeth Dole the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Ups NYC Sub Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Al Gore 50% 45% 65% 40% 18% 77% 44% 49% 51% Elizabeth Dole 37 43 23 42 70 13 42 38 35 SOMEONE ELSE (VOL) 2 2 2 3 2 1 2 2 2 WOULDN'T VOTE (VOL) 2 1 2 3 3 - 2 2 2 DK/NA 10 9 8 12 7 8 10 9 10 30. If the election for President in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley the Democrat and former Red Cross Chairwoman Elizabeth Dole the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Ups NYC Sub Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Bill Bradley 46% 35% 60% 49% 25% 64% 44% 52% 41% Elizabeth Dole 34 45 19 34 61 19 33 31 36 SOMEONE ELSE (VOL) 2 2 3 1 1 2 2 2 2 WOULDN'T VOTE (VOL) 2 2 4 1 1 1 2 2 2 DK/NA 16 17 14 15 11 14 18 13 18 31. Is your opinion of the Democratic party favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about it? Tot Ups NYC Sub Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 39% 34% 54% 30% 8% 73% 26% 35% 43% Unfavorable 17 19 10 23 45 2 17 25 10 Mixed 38 38 33 43 41 23 50 35 40 Haven't hrd enough 5 7 3 3 6 2 6 4 5 REFUSED 1 2 1 1 - - 1 1 1 32. Is your opinion of the Republican party favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about it? Tot Ups NYC Sub Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 19% 20% 11% 27% 51% 5% 12% 22% 16% Unfavorable 38 31 51 32 7 63 33 38 37 Mixed 37 41 33 35 38 27 48 34 39 Haven't hrd enough 5 6 5 4 4 4 5 4 6 REFUSED 2 2 1 2 - 1 2 2 2
