November 11, 1999 - Bradley Is Alpha Male In New York Dem Primary, Quinnipiac College Poll Finds; Ex-Knick Would Slam Dunk Bush Or McCain Former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley has opened a 47 - 38 percent lead over Vice President Al Gore in a New York State Democratic Primary, according to a Quinnipiac College poll released today. This compares to the 44 - 41 percent lead Bradley held in an October 3 New York poll by the independent Quinnipiac College. In other Quinnipiac College polls: Bradley had a 47 - 39 percent lead among New Hampshire Democrats October 26; Bradley beat Gore 51 - 34 percent among Connecticut Democrats October 13; New Jersey Democrats gave Bradley a 63 - 24 percent home court advantage Sept 27. From November 3 - 8, Quinnipiac College surveyed 1,109 New York State registered voters. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent. The survey includes 465 registered Democrats, with a margin error for that group of +/- 4.5 percent, and 355 Republicans, with a margin of error of 5.2 percent. "Bill Bradley has been on a sustained drive, blowing past Vice President Gore. In a July 1 Quinnipiac College Poll, Gore beat Bradley 52 - 34 percent among New York Democrats. But Bradley closed the gap and has moved ahead," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac College Polling Institute. "New Hampshire is just three months away, and the big New York Primary comes one month later. Gore better make his move soon." In a general election one-on-one, Bradley beats Texas Gov. George W. Bush, the GOP front-runner, 52 - 35 percent. He tops Arizona Sen. John McCain 55 - 23 percent. Gore, who has been tied with Bush in Quinnipiac College's New York polls for months, squeaks ahead 47 - 43 percent in the latest survey. The Vice President tops McCain 49 - 35 percent. In a Bradley-Bush matchup, men favor the ex-Knick 49 - 38 percent, while women back Bradley 55 - 32 percent. In a Gore-Bush race, men shift to the Republican 49 - 40 percent, while women shift slightly, but stay with the Democrat 52 - 38 percent. By a 37 - 8 percent margin, New York voters have a favorable opinion of Bradley, with 20 percent mixed and 33 percent saying they haven't heard enough to form an opinion. Favorability ratings among other presidential contenders are: Favorable Unfavorable Mixed No Opinion George W. Bush 29% 28% 31% 11% Al Gore 27 28 35 10 Bush wins a New York Republican Primary with 56 percent, followed by McCain with 17 percent and Steve Forbes with 8 percent. "One third of New Yorkers still don't know Bill Bradley, but that number has been shrinking with each poll, while his favorability has stayed high," Carroll said. "Gore's favorability has bounced back from a negative 24 - 30 percent October 3 to a 27 - 28 percent split today. Bush has gone from a 25 - 24 percent split October 3, with 22 percent saying they needed to know more, to a 29 - 28 split today, when only 11 percent have no opinion. "While McCain has been making waves around the U.S., he loses big to Bush with New York Republicans and doesn't score against Bradley or Gore." The Quinnipiac College Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 287-5201 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling his job as Governor of New York? Oct 5 Tot UPS NYC SUB Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1999 Approve 60% 66% 49% 63% 84% 45% 58% 63% 57% 57% Disapprove 29 24 38 24 9 43 30 26 31 31 DK/NA 12 10 13 13 6 12 12 11 12 11 2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator? Sep 15 Tot UPS NYC SUB Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1999 Approve 55% 48% 67% 50% 42% 68% 52% 51% 58% 55% Disapprove 19 20 13 24 29 12 20 25 14 18 DK/NA 26 32 19 26 30 20 28 24 28 27 3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Daniel Patrick Moynihan is handling his job as United States Senator? Sep 15 Tot UPS NYC SUB Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1999 Approve 65% 65% 67% 61% 58% 71% 65% 64% 65% 59% Disapprove 21 20 19 26 28 15 20 24 19 21 DK/NA 14 15 14 13 14 14 15 12 16 20 4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as President? Oct 3 Tot UPS NYC SUB Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1999 Approve 62% 56% 72% 60% 35% 84% 62% 55% 68% 61% Disapprove 34 40 23 37 63 14 33 41 28 36 DK/NA 4 3 5 3 1 3 5 4 4 3 10. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for President in the year 2000 -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all? Oct 3 Tot UPS NYC SUB Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1999 A lot 33% 31% 32% 37% 40% 33% 28% 38% 29% 32% Some 45 48 44 43 41 45 50 39 50 42 Only a little 16 16 17 14 15 15 17 17 15 19 None at all 6 6 6 5 4 6 5 5 6 7 DK/NA - - 1 - - - - - - - 11. Is your opinion of Vice President Al Gore favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Oct 3 Tot UPS NYC SUB Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1999 Favorable 27% 26% 34% 22% 8% 42% 26% 23% 30% 24% Unfavorable 28 32 17 33 53 12 26 34 23 30 Mixed 35 36 34 35 31 35 38 33 37 34 Hvn't hrd enough 10 6 14 10 7 11 9 9 10 12 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 - 1 1 - - 12. Is your opinion of former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Oct 3 Tot UPS NYC SUB Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1999 Favorable 37% 31% 43% 40% 30% 43% 39% 43% 33% 36% Unfavorable 8 8 6 11 13 5 8 10 7 6 Mixed 20 21 21 20 24 18 20 20 21 17 Hvn't hrd enough 33 40 29 29 33 33 33 26 39 41 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 - 1 1 - - 13. Is your opinion of former Family Research Council President Gary Bauer favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? July 1 Tot UPS NYC SUB Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1999 Favorable 5% 4% 5% 5% 8% 3% 4% 7% 3% 5% Unfavorable 13 10 15 13 14 15 12 16 10 11 Mixed 5 6 5 5 8 5 5 5 6 5 Hvn't hrd enough 76 79 74 76 70 78 77 70 81 78 REFUSED 1 1 1 - - 1 1 1 - 1 14. Is your opinion of Texas Governor George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Oct 3 Tot UPS NYC SUB Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1999 Favorable 29% 38% 19% 29% 58% 12% 28% 35% 25% 25% Unfavorable 28 22 38 27 5 49 25 24 32 24 Mixed 31 31 30 33 31 28 34 30 32 29 Hvn't hrd enough 11 9 13 11 6 10 13 11 11 22 REFUSED - - - - - - - - - - 15. Is your opinion of Businessman Steve Forbes favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? July 1 Tot UPS NYC SUB Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1999 Favorable 13% 15% 11% 13% 21% 6% 16% 18% 10% 17% Unfavorable 34 30 39 33 33 40 31 35 33 30 Mixed 23 25 19 24 23 21 25 22 23 24 Hvn't hrd enough 30 30 30 29 23 34 28 24 34 28 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 - - 1 1 - 1 16. Is your opinion of Utah Senator Orrin Hatch favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot UPS NYC SUB Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 10% 9% 7% 13% 18% 5% 9% 12% 7% Unfavorable 26 24 29 26 19 32 24 29 24 Mixed 11 11 11 11 13 9 11 14 9 Hvn't hrd enough 53 55 52 49 50 53 56 44 60 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 - - 1 1 - 17. Is your opinion of Political Commentator Alan Keyes favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot UPS NYC SUB Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 7% 6% 7% 8% 15% 3% 6% 11% 4% Unfavorable 14 13 14 15 13 16 13 18 10 Mixed 7 8 6 8 7 8 7 9 6 Hvn't hrd enough 71 72 73 68 66 72 72 60 80 REFUSED 1 1 - 2 - 1 1 1 - 18. Is your opinion of Arizona Senator John McCain favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? July 1 Tot UPS NYC SUB Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1999 Favorable 24% 24% 24% 26% 32% 19% 26% 33% 17% 20% Unfavorable 8 8 10 6 7 11 6 10 7 9 Mixed 18 17 17 22 17 21 17 18 19 13 Hvn't hrd enough 49 52 49 45 44 49 51 39 57 58 REFUSED - - - - - - - - - 1 19. If the election for President in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were Vice President Al Gore the Democrat, and Texas Governor George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote? Oct 3 Tot UPS NYC SUB Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1999 Gore 47% 37% 64% 42% 9% 77% 45% 40% 52% 43% Bush 43 53 26 47 85 15 43 49 38 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 - 1 2 2 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 3 1 2 3 2 2 3 DK/NA 7 6 7 7 5 6 7 6 8 10 20. If the election for President in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were former United States Senator Bill Bradley the Democrat, and Texas Governor George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote? Oct 3 Tot UPS NYC SUB Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 1999 Bradley 52% 40% 68% 53% 15% 79% 54% 49% 55% 51% Bush 35 45 21 35 74 12 31 38 32 32 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 - 1 1 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 3 3 1 3 3 3 2 2 DK/NA 9 12 7 8 9 5 11 8 10 13 21. If the election for President in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were Vice President Al Gore the Democrat, and Arizona Senator John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot UPS NYC SUB Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Gore 49% 42% 62% 47% 19% 76% 46% 41% 56% McCain 35 41 22 39 66 13 36 44 27 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 2 1 3 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 2 5 1 4 4 3 DK/NA 11 11 10 11 8 8 11 9 13 22. If the election for President in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were former United States Senator Bill Bradley the Democrat, and Arizona Senator John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot UPS NYC SUB Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Bradley 55% 46% 66% 57% 26% 78% 53% 52% 58% McCain 23 28 15 24 52 7 19 29 18 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 3 1 4 1 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 5 2 3 2 3 6 4 3 DK/NA 16 19 13 16 16 11 18 13 19 23. (If Registered Democrat)If the Democratic Primary for President in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were Vice President Al Gore and former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley, for whom would you vote? Registered Democrats Oct 3 Tot Men Wom 1999 Gore 38% 33% 41% 41% Bradley 47 55 42 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 DK/NA 13 9 15 13 24. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican Primary for President in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were former Family Research Council President Gary Bauer, Texas Governor George W. Bush, Businessman Steve Forbes, Utah Senator Orrin Hatch, Political Commentator Alan Keyes, and Arizona Senator John McCain, for whom would you vote? Registered Republicans Tot Men Wom Bauer 2% 2% 3% Bush 56 56 56 Forbes 8 6 9 Hatch 2 3 1 Keyes 1 2 - McCain 17 24 11 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 DK/NA 11 5 17
