July 16, 1998 - Ferraro Leads Schumer, Green Among Likely Dem Voters, Quinnipiac College Poll Finds; Attorney General Candidates Are Big Unknowns Former U.S. Rep. Geraldine Ferraro has a 39 - 28 percent lead over Brooklyn Congressman Charles Schumer among registered Democrats likely to vote in the September 15 Primary for U.S. Senate, according to a Quinnipiac College Poll released today. New York City Public Advocate Mark Green gets 24 percent, with 9 percent undecided. The race remains fluid as 48 percent of likely Democratic voters are "pretty sure" they will stay with the candidate they named, 52 percent say they might change their mind. Ferraro does well with both women voters, where she leads Schumer 38 - 25 percent, and with men, who prefer Ferraro over Schumer 41 - 33 percent. "A celebrity the day she entered the Senate race, Ms. Ferraro holds a less impressive, but still comfortable lead among likely Democratic voters -- determined by prior voter behavior and intention to vote this time -- voters who are more knowledgeable of the other candidates," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac College Polling Institute. "The assessment of the Ferraro campaign among political pros is that it has been unfocused, while Rep. Schumer has concentrated on appeals to those crucial primary voters. Schumer has 60 days until the September 15 Democratic Primary to prove the experts right." "The `undecided' count is fairly low -- 9 percent -- but 52 percent of those who have decided say they could change their mind. So let's see how things shake out as the campaign moves into high gear," Carroll added. The Democratic Primary for State Attorney General has yet to register even with likely Democratic voters: Lawyer Eliot Spitzer gets 18 percent, to 16 percent for former Attorney General Oliver Koppell and 13 percent for State Sen. Catherine Abate, with 52 percent undecided. A fourth candidate, Evan Davis, was restored to the Democratic Primary ballot for Attorney General after polling had begun. The three U.S. Senate candidates all are well regarded by likely Democratic voters, while the three State Attorney General candidates are virtually unknown. Ferraro's favorability rating is 56 - 11 percent, with 30 percent mixed and 3 percent who say they haven't heard enough to form an opinion. Among other Democratic contenders, ratings are: Favorable Unfavorable Mixed No opinion Schumer 52 5 19 24 Green 56 5 20 18 Spitzer 14 3 13 70 Koppell 15 4 11 70 Abate 12 1 7 80 "Democrats think they have a good shot of knocking off Attorney General Dennis Vacco, the Republican incumbent, in November," Carroll said. "But they sure haven't focused on which candidate they'd like to do it. "The big Democratic leader at this state is `undecided.' "While 70 percent of likely Democratic voters say they've been paying a lot or at least some attention to the Senate race, only 44 percent say they've been paying a lot or some attention to the Attorney General's race," Carroll said. From July 7 - 13, Quinnipiac College surveyed 487 New York State likely Democratic voters. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percent. The Quinnipiac College Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research. For additional data: www.quinnipiac.edu 12. How much attention have you been paying to this year's campaign for United States Senator? A lot, some, only a little, or none at all? Likely Voters A lot 30% Some 40 Only a little 20 None at all 10 DK/NA - 13. Is your opinion of former United States Representative Geraldine Ferraro favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her? Likely Voters Favorable 56% Unfavorable 11 Mixed 30 Haven't heard enough 3 Refused - 14. Is your opinion of New York City Public Advocate Mark Green favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Likely Voters Favorable 56% Unfavorable 5 Mixed 20 Haven't heard enough 18 Refused - 15. Is your opinion of United States Representative Charles Schumer favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Likely Voters Favorable 52% Unfavorable 5 Mixed 19 Haven't heard enough 24 Refused - 16. If the Democratic primary election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Mark Green, Geraldine Ferraro, and Charles Schumer for whom would you vote? Likely Likely Voters Voters Men Wom Green 24% 21% 25% Ferraro 39 41 38 Schumer 28 33 25 DK/NA 9 4 12 17. (If express preference) Is your mind made up or do you think you might change your mind before the primary election in September? Likely Voters Yes, made up 48% No, might change 52 DK/NA - 22. Who do you think will win the Democratic primary election for Senator? Ferraro, Green, or Schumer? Likely Voters Ferraro 38% Green 15 Schumer 26 DK/NA 22 30. How much attention have you been paying to this year's campaign for New York State Attorney General? A lot, some, only a little, or none at all? Likely Voters A lot 10% Some 34 Only a little 34 None at all 21 DK/NA 1 31. Is your opinion of State Senator Catherine Abate favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her? Likely Voters Favorable 12% Unfavorable 1 Mixed 7 Haven't heard enough 80 Refused 1 32. Is your opinion of former State Attorney General Oliver Koppell favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Likely Voters Favorable 15% Unfavorable 4 Mixed 11 Haven't heard enough 70 Refused - 33. Is your opinion of Attorney Eliot Spitzer favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Likely Voters Favorable 14% Unfavorable 3 Mixed 13 Haven't heard enough 70 Refused - 34. If the 1998 Democratic primary election for New York State Attorney General were being held today and the candidates were Oliver Koppell, Katherine Abate, and Eliot Spitzer, for whom would you vote? Likely Voters Koppell 16% Abate 13 Spitzer 18 SOMEONE ELSE (VOL) 1 DK/NA 52
