February 25, 2008 - Obama Gains On Clinton In Ohio Dem Primary Quinnipiac University Likely Voter Poll Finds; College-Educated Voters In Big Shift To Obama Word format Buoyed by a big shift among college-educated voters, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is gaining on New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, who now leads 51 - 40 percent among Ohio likely Democratic primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to a 55 - 34 percent Clinton lead in a February 14 likely voter poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. College-educated voters back Sen. Obama 58 - 33 percent, compared to a 46 - 41 percent Clinton lead with these voters February 14. On the eve of the only televised debate between the two Democratic contenders in Ohio and just one week before the crucial March 4 primary, Sen. Clinton's large margins among women, 53 - 36 percent; older voters, whites and those without a college education keep her out front. "Sen. Clinton's lead remains substantial, but the trend line should be worrisome for her in a state that even her husband, former President Bill Clinton, has said she must win," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "A week is an awful long time in politics to be playing defense, but one thing going in her favor is that she is viewed more favorably than is he by Ohio likely Democratic primary voters. "Sen. Obama, to no one's surprise given his momentum nationally, has made inroads, especially among some of Sen. Clinton's softer supporters," said Brown. "If she is to stop his momentum in Ohio, she must retain her margins among her core backers - women, older voters and those lower on the social-economic and education scale." "For instance, while she held leads of four points and 27 points among likely primary voters below and over age 45 respectively earlier this month, now she trails by 52 - 42 percent among the younger group and her margin has shrunk to 55 - 35 percent among older voters," said Brown. When asked how they view the two candidates, 64 percent of likely primary voters view Sen. Obama favorably, 16 percent unfavorably. Sen. Clinton's numbers are 76 percent favorable, 17 percent unfavorable. Compared to other states where Obama has taken more than 80 percent of the black vote, he leads 68 - 20 percent among blacks in Ohio, while Clinton leads among whites 59 - 33 percent. If Arizona Sen. John McCain, the de facto Republican presidential nominee, were to pick Ohio's senior senator George Voinovich as his vice president, only 9 percent of registered voters, including 11 percent of independents, say they would be more likely to vote for McCain. But 18 percent of all voters, with 18 percent of independents, say it would make them less likely to vote for the Republican ticket. Overall, 70 percent say it would make no difference. McCain's selection of Rob Portman, a former Ohio congressman and U.S. Trade representative, also would have no real effect. Five percent, including 6 percent of independents, would be more likely to vote for McCain; 12 percent, including 11 percent of independents, say it would make them less likely, and 76 percent say it would have no effect. Bush Approval Ohio registered voters disapprove 69 - 28 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing, his lowest score ever in the state. Voters say 65 - 30 percent that the U.S. economy is in a recession. But 56 percent of Ohio voters say their personal finances are "excellent" or "good," while 44 percent say they are "not so good" or "poor." Voters also say 62 - 31 percent that going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do. From February 18 - 23, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,853 Ohio registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.3 percent. The survey includes 741 likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201. 1. If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton or Obama? This table includes "Leaners". LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... Wht Wht Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Men Wom Clinton 51% 48% 53% 59% 20% 55% 61% Obama 40 45 36 33 68 39 29 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 9 7 10 7 12 5 9 Age Age No col College 18-44 45+ degree degree Clinton 42% 55% 57% 33% Obama 52 35 34 58 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 5 9 9 8 TREND: If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton or Obama? *This table includes Leaners. LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS Feb 25 Feb 14 2008 2008 Clinton 51 55% Obama 40 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 9 9 2. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS......................... Reg Wht Wht ToVote Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Men Wom Favorable 47% 76% 73% 78% 77% 73% 72% 80% Unfavorable 41 17 21 14 17 16 24 12 Hvn't hrd enough 9 5 4 5 5 7 3 6 REFUSED 3 2 1 3 2 4 1 2 Age Age No col College 18-44 45+ degree degree Favorable 71% 78% 77% 72% Unfavorable 21 15 16 19 Hvn't hrd enough 7 4 5 6 REFUSED 1 2 2 3 3. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS......................... Reg Wht Wht ToVote Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Men Wom Favorable 47% 64% 67% 62% 59% 87% 61% 57% Unfavorable 26 16 14 17 19 - 17 21 Hvn't hrd enough 23 18 18 18 19 12 20 18 REFUSED 4 2 1 3 3 1 2 3 Age Age No col College 18-44 45+ degree degree Favorable 70% 62% 58% 83% Unfavorable 13 17 19 6 Hvn't hrd enough 16 19 21 9 REFUSED 2 2 2 3 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? REGISTERED VOTERS....................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 28% 66% 5% 23% 33% 23% 42% Disapprove 69 28 95 71 63 73 52 DK/NA 4 6 1 6 4 4 6 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Approve 29% 22% 28% 25% 39% 34% Disapprove 67 75 68 71 55 63 DK/NA 3 3 3 5 7 4 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? Highest Lowest Approve Approve Feb 25 Feb 14 Nov 14 Sep 6 Jul 12 May 16 Feb 25 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 Approve 28 31 29 32 29 35 28 Disapprove 69 61 67 64 66 61 69 DK/NA 4 7 4 5 5 4 4 12. If Republican presidential candidate John McCain picked Senator George Voinovich as his running mate, would that make you more likely to vote for McCain for president, less likely to vote for McCain for president or wouldn't it make a difference? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl More likely 9% 14% 3% 11% 10% 8% 8% Less likely 18 16 21 18 17 20 20 Doesn't make diff 70 66 75 67 71 69 68 DK/NA 3 3 2 3 2 4 4 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt More likely 11% 9% 7% 3% 6% 10% Less likely 15 20 24 17 18 14 Doesn't make diff 72 67 68 76 72 71 DK/NA 2 4 1 3 4 5 13. If Republican presidential candidate John McCain picked former cabinet member and U.S. Representative Rob Portman as his running mate would that make you more likely to vote for McCain for president, less likely to vote for McCain for president or wouldn't it make a difference? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl More likely 5% 10% 1% 6% 6% 4% 6% Less likely 12 8 16 11 11 13 11 Doesn't make diff 76 74 78 76 77 76 72 DK/NA 7 8 5 7 6 8 11 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt More likely 2% 4% 1% 2% 16% 4% Less likely 13 12 13 11 12 8 Doesn't make diff 78 76 78 82 67 79 DK/NA 7 7 8 5 5 8 14. Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as - Excellent, good, not so good, or poor? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Excellent 1% 1% - 1% - - - Good 13 30 3 11 18 9 18 Not so good 36 46 25 40 39 33 38 Poor 50 22 70 47 40 58 43 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Excellent 1% 1% - - 1% - Good 14 10 13 10 21 15 Not so good 38 34 35 34 39 38 Poor 46 55 51 55 39 46 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 - 1 15. Would you describe your own personal financial situation as - Excellent, good, not so good, or poor? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Excellent 6% 8% 4% 7% 8% 4% 3% Good 50 65 42 48 55 45 57 Not so good 30 19 38 28 26 33 26 Poor 14 7 15 16 10 16 12 DK/NA 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Excellent 8% 5% 7% 3% 5% 5% Good 46 50 45 39 57 56 Not so good 29 30 31 39 24 30 Poor 15 14 18 17 12 7 DK/NA 2 1 - 2 2 1 16. During the next 12 months, do you think your own personal financial situation will get better, get worse, or stay about the same? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Get better 29% 30% 27% 30% 32% 26% 24% Get worse 12 9 13 13 12 12 12 Stay the same 57 60 57 55 54 60 61 DK/NA 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Get better 31% 27% 27% 25% 35% 27% Get worse 10 12 17 15 8 11 Stay the same 55 58 56 57 55 60 DK/NA 3 3 - 3 2 2 17. Do you think the United States economy is in a recession now? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 65% 47% 79% 63% 60% 69% 60% No 30 49 17 30 36 25 34 DK/NA 5 4 4 6 4 6 6 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Yes 61% 69% 68% 73% 55% 59% No 31 25 31 25 42 34 DK/NA 7 5 2 3 4 7 18. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Right thing 31% 68% 9% 29% 37% 26% 46% Wrong thing 62 25 88 62 57 67 47 DK/NA 6 7 3 9 5 7 7 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Right thing 30% 25% 32% 24% 48% 39% Wrong thing 65 66 62 68 49 57 DK/NA 5 8 5 8 3 4 TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing? Feb 25 Mar 22 Jan 30 2008 2007 2007 Right thing 31 34 37 Wrong thing 62 60 56 DK/NA 6 6 6
