December 10, 2008 - Ohio Gov. In Strong Re-Elect Position At Half-Way Point, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Sen. Voinovich Faces Tough Challenge In 2010 Word format Gov. Ted Strickland's job approval rating has fallen to 54 - 25 percent, but he remains in strong position for re-election, while U.S. Sen. George Voinovich faces a tougher 2010 fight for a third term, with 36 percent wanting to give him another term and 35 percent backing an unnamed Democratic candidate, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Former U.S. Sen. Mike DeWine is the best-known of the Republicans considering a challenge to Gov. Strickland, while former Congressmen John Kasich and Rob Portman are viewed positively, but are not well known to three-quarters or more of voters, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. And Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, perhaps the most likely Democratic challenger to Sen. Voinovich, isn't that much better known either, as 23 percent view him favorably, 10 percent unfavorably while two-thirds of voters say they haven't heard enough about him to have an opinion. "Although Gov. Strickland ends 2008 with his lowest job approval rating of the year, mostly because Republicans who in the past viewed him favorably are now evenly split about him, he remains a solid favorite for re-election," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "In a trial heat, 46 percent said they would give him a second term, while only 26 percent would back an unnamed Republican." Voinovich, who has been a fixture in Ohio politics since winning the first of two terms as Governor in 1990, would have a potentially more difficult challenge for a third term in the U.S. Senate in 2010. Only 44 percent of voters, including a lukewarm 54 percent of Republicans, say he deserves to be reelected. "Incumbents, especially those well-known to voters as is Voinovich, are thought to be in trouble when less than 50 percent of voters say they deserve to be re-elected," Brown added. "Moreover, in a mythical trial heat, he is tied with an unnamed Democratic opponent. That's not a good sign for Voinovich's chances, although his positive job approval rating by 51 percent of voters is evidence he is by no means a dead duck." Among the Republicans thought to be considering a challenge to Strickland, DeWine, who was defeated in 2006 in his U.S. Senate re-election bid, is viewed favorably by 43 percent of voters, unfavorably by 24 percent, with his rating among Republicans who would select the GOP candidate 56 percent favorable to 14 percent unfavorable. By comparison, Kasich, who since leaving Congress has been a Fox News show host, is viewed favorably by 18 percent of Ohio voters, unfavorably by 8 percent - and favorably by 30 percent of Republicans and unfavorably by 6 percent. Portman, who also served as U.S. trade representative in addition to his Congressional stint, is slightly less known - 12 percent favorable, 7 percent unfavorable overall; 20 percent favorable to 4 percent unfavorable among Republicans. "Because of his years in the U.S. Senate, DeWine is obviously the best known of the GOP contenders, but Kasich and Portman are very well regarded among those who are familiar with them," said Brown. Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, who became a controversial figure for her rulings as the state's top election official during the presidential campaign, also could face re-election problems. She is viewed favorably by 26 percent of voters, unfavorably by 24 percent and 49 percent haven't heard enough. Among independents, often a key voting bloc, she is 22 percent favorable to 26 percent unfavorable. House Speaker Jon Husted, thought likely to be her GOP opponent, is unknown: 7 percent view him favorably, 5 percent unfavorably and 86 percent haven't heard enough about him to have an opinion. From December 4 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,468 Ohio voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling his job as Governor? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 54% 35% 68% 53% 56% 52% 49% Disapprove 25 37 15 25 26 23 30 DK/NA 22 28 17 22 18 25 21 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Approve 60% 56% 56% 48% 48% 48% Disapprove 21 23 18 28 29 32 DK/NA 19 21 26 23 23 21 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling his job as Governor? * also 61% on 7/11/07 Highest Lowest Approve Approve Dec 10 Aug 14 Jun 4 Feb 25 Nov 13 Nov 13 Feb 1 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007* 2007 Approve 54 60 55 56 61 61 45 Disapprove 25 25 23 19 15 15 12 DK/NA 22 15 23 25 24 24 43 2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 46% 44% 52% 43% 44% 48% 45% Disapprove 35 38 28 39 39 31 36 DK/NA 19 19 20 18 18 20 19 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Approve 48% 40% 63% 60% 43% 48% Disapprove 33 39 23 23 43 27 DK/NA 19 21 14 17 14 24 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? Highest Lowest Approve Approve Dec 10 Aug 14 Nov 13 Sep 5 Jul 11 Dec 10 Dec 12 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2008 2006 Approve 46 42 41 38 39 46 25 Disapprove 35 41 32 37 35 35 55 DK/NA 19 17 26 25 25 19 20 3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 48% 34% 59% 49% 51% 46% 43% Disapprove 26 36 16 28 30 23 28 DK/NA 26 30 25 23 20 31 29 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Approve 49% 52% 50% 52% 39% 43% Disapprove 22 26 28 19 30 27 DK/NA 29 22 22 29 31 30 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator? * also 42% on 2/1/07 Highest Lowest Approve Approve Dec 10 Aug 14 Jun 4 Feb 25 Nov 14 Aug 14 May 15 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2008 2007* Approve 48 51 44 44 47 51 42 Disapprove 26 23 23 15 21 23 21 DK/NA 26 26 33 41 33 26 36 4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Voinovich is handling his job as United States Senator? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 51% 60% 46% 52% 54% 49% 55% Disapprove 31 22 34 35 32 31 28 DK/NA 17 18 20 13 14 20 17 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Approve 58% 51% 62% 45% 44% 46% Disapprove 27 33 23 37 38 29 DK/NA 16 16 15 18 19 26 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Voinovich is handling his job as United States Senator? * also 51% 3/21/07 and 8/14/08 Highest Lowest Approve Approve Dec 10 Aug 14 Jun 4 Feb 25 Nov 14 Dec 10 Dec 13 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2008 * 2006 Approve 51 51 45 46 50 51 41 Disapprove 31 32 31 27 29 32 33 DK/NA 17 17 23 27 21 17 26 5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jennifer Brunner is handling her job as Ohio's Secretary of State? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 39% 26% 51% 36% 38% 39% 32% Disapprove 28 40 15 31 35 22 34 DK/NA 33 33 34 33 27 39 34 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Approve 40% 36% 57% 44% 33% 35% Disapprove 34 26 16 25 36 26 DK/NA 26 38 28 31 32 39 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jennifer Brunner is handling her job as Ohio's Secretary of State? Dec 10 Aug 14 Jun 4 2008 2008 2008 Approve 39 38 38 Disapprove 28 12 13 DK/NA 33 50 48 6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 28% 62% 4% 26% 29% 26% 41% Disapprove 69 32 95 72 68 71 56 DK/NA 3 6 1 3 3 3 3 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Approve 29% 21% 31% 27% 39% 29% Disapprove 68 75 67 70 57 71 DK/NA 3 4 2 3 3 - TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? Highest Lowest Approve Approve Dec 10 May 22 May 1 Apr 2 Feb 25 May 16 May 1 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2008 Approve 28 26 23 27 28 35 23 Disapprove 69 68 71 68 69 61 71 DK/NA 3 6 6 5 4 4 6 7. Looking ahead to the 2010 election for Governor, do you feel that Ted Strickland deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes/Deserves 45% 25% 62% 44% 45% 46% 40% No/Does not 34 53 20 35 37 32 41 DK/NA 20 22 18 21 18 22 20 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Yes/Deserves 51% 44% 50% 53% 39% 40% No/Does not 31 34 34 30 42 37 DK/NA 18 22 16 17 19 23 8. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today, do you think you would vote for Ted Strickland, the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Strickland 46% 11% 81% 38% 42% 50% 35% Republican 26 63 5 20 29 24 35 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 19 21 8 30 20 19 22 DK/NA 8 5 6 12 9 8 8 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Strickland 47% 48% 51% 59% 37% 41% Republican 26 23 22 24 36 27 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 16 20 17 13 21 26 DK/NA 11 9 10 4 5 6 9. Looking ahead to the 2010 election for United States Senator, do you think that George Voinovich deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes/Deserves 44% 54% 37% 45% 48% 40% 46% No/Does not 34 27 40 33 33 35 33 DK/NA 22 19 23 22 19 24 21 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Yes/Deserves 45% 46% 55% 40% 39% 35% No/Does not 30 36 28 40 39 34 DK/NA 25 19 18 20 23 30 10. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today, do you think you would vote for George Voinovich, the Republican candidate, or for the Democratic candidate? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Voinovich 36% 68% 15% 33% 43% 30% 45% Democrat 35 7 64 26 29 40 27 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 18 16 13 27 18 19 19 DK/NA 11 9 7 15 11 11 9 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Voinovich 38% 37% 30% 34% 34% 35% Democrat 32 37 38 39 32 32 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 16 18 20 14 21 20 DK/NA 14 8 11 13 13 13 11. Is your opinion of -- George Voinovich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 39% 51% 30% 41% 44% 34% 42% Unfavorable 25 15 30 26 26 24 24 Hvn't hrd enough 33 30 38 28 26 39 30 REFUSED 3 3 2 5 4 3 3 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Favorable 38% 44% 41% 31% 30% 37% Unfavorable 23 25 22 26 29 26 Hvn't hrd enough 36 26 35 42 38 37 REFUSED 3 5 2 2 3 1 12. Is your opinion of -- Ted Strickland favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 47% 28% 64% 44% 47% 47% 39% Unfavorable 25 38 15 26 29 23 31 Hvn't hrd enough 26 32 20 27 23 28 28 REFUSED 2 2 1 3 1 2 2 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Favorable 51% 47% 52% 51% 43% 42% Unfavorable 21 25 20 25 32 28 Hvn't hrd enough 28 26 25 22 23 29 REFUSED 1 2 3 2 2 1 13. Is your opinion of -- Lee Fisher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 23% 14% 34% 19% 23% 22% 17% Unfavorable 10 15 3 13 15 6 12 Hvn't hrd enough 66 71 62 67 62 70 71 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 - 1 1 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Favorable 17% 31% 27% 15% 15% 16% Unfavorable 8 13 3 10 11 9 Hvn't hrd enough 74 56 69 75 72 75 REFUSED 1 1 - - 1 - 14. Is your opinion of -- Jennifer Brunner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 26% 15% 39% 22% 25% 26% 18% Unfavorable 24 36 12 26 29 19 29 Hvn't hrd enough 49 48 49 52 45 54 52 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Favorable 26% 28% 38% 24% 15% 23% Unfavorable 29 22 15 23 29 21 Hvn't hrd enough 44 49 45 53 54 55 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 2 1 15. Is your opinion of -- Jon Husted favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 7% 11% 6% 7% 10% 5% 8% Unfavorable 5 3 6 5 7 4 4 Hvn't hrd enough 86 84 88 86 81 91 87 REFUSED 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Favorable 4% 5% 8% 8% 8% 16% Unfavorable 6 5 1 4 1 10 Hvn't hrd enough 88 88 90 87 89 73 REFUSED 2 2 1 1 1 1 16. Is your opinion of -- Mike DeWine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 43% 56% 31% 45% 46% 40% 48% Unfavorable 24 14 28 27 26 22 22 Hvn't hrd enough 32 28 40 26 27 36 29 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Favorable 37% 38% 52% 42% 48% 53% Unfavorable 24 25 16 21 26 24 Hvn't hrd enough 38 34 31 37 25 22 REFUSED 1 2 - - 2 1 17. Is your opinion of -- John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 18% 30% 8% 19% 22% 15% 21% Unfavorable 8 6 7 10 9 7 7 Hvn't hrd enough 73 63 84 70 69 77 71 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Favorable 38% 13% 9% 18% 18% 12% Unfavorable 10 7 3 15 6 7 Hvn't hrd enough 51 79 87 66 75 79 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 1 18. Is your opinion of -- Rob Portman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 12% 20% 5% 13% 15% 9% 12% Unfavorable 7 4 8 7 8 5 8 Hvn't hrd enough 80 76 86 78 76 84 80 REFUSED 1 - 1 2 1 1 - Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Favorable 6% 3% 9% 6% 48% 12% Unfavorable 4 5 3 7 19 4 Hvn't hrd enough 89 91 87 87 33 83 REFUSED 1 1 1 - - 1
