February 23, 2010 - Strickland Re-Takes Lead In Ohio Governor's Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Obama Approval Drops To Big Negative In Swing State Word format Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland leads Republican challenger John Kasich in the race to be Ohio's next governor, 44 - 39 percent, up from a 40 - 40 deadlock November 11, and has improved his standing slightly, but consistently, on a broad array of measures, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Despite the uptick for the Democratic Governor, President Barack Obama gets a negative 44 - 52 percent approval rating in Ohio, the ultimate Electoral College swing state, his biggest negative in any state or national survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University since his inauguration. Strickland leads Kasich 48 - 33 percent among women while Kasich leads 45 - 38 percent among men. Kasich leads 73 - 11 percent among Republicans, while the Governor leads 82 - 9 percent among Democrats. Independent voters split 38 - 38 percent. "There has been an improvement in voters' views of Gov. Ted Strickland," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The movement is a few points, but it is consistent across a number of measures. Voters, however, remain negative on his handling of the state budget and the state economy. "John Kasich remains unknown to most voters. The campaign will be a race by the candidates to define Kasich for the 62 percent of voters who don't know enough about him to have an opinion," Brown said. "Given that, the race's closeness may say much about Strickland. While the Governor's horserace numbers are good, he has a long way to go and what is keeping him ahead is his support among women." Ohio voters approve 48 - 40 percent of the job Strickland is doing, up from a 45 - 43 percent split November 11. The Governor gets a 45 - 36 percent favorability rating, up from a 38 - 37 percent split in November. For Kasich, 62 percent of voters do not know enough about him to form an opinion. Voters disapprove 53 - 35 percent of the way Strickland is handling the economy, little changed from November, and say 45 - 34 percent that he has not kept his campaign promises. Strickland also gets a negative 32 - 51 percent approval for handling the state budget, down from 36 - 47 percent in September. Kasich would do a better job rebuilding the state's economy, voters say 41 - 35 percent, and do a better job handling the state budget, voters say 42 - 36 percent. Voters split on which candidate is more likely to do in office what they promise during the campaign, with 35 percent naming Strickland and 36 percent choosing Kasich. Strickland most shares their values, voters say 40 - 36 percent. President Obama's Approval President Obama's negative 44 - 52 percent job approval is down slightly from 45 - 50 percent November 12, led by a big drop among independent voters, who approve 38 - 57 percent, down from 45 - 49 percent in November. Republicans are negative 11 - 87 percent, while Democrats approve 81 - 13 percent. Ohio voters give Obama a negative 39 - 57 percent approval for handling the economy, and a negative 34 - 58 on his handling of health care. Voters approve 55 - 39 percent of Obama's decision to send 30,000 additional troops to Afghanistan. Voters mostly disapprove 56 - 33 percent of the current health care reform plan, but say 53 - 44 percent that Obama and Congress should keep trying to pass reform legislation. "Given that President Obama carried the state with more than 51 percent of the vote, these numbers mean many Ohioans who were in his corner have now deserted him," said Brown. From February 16 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,662 Ohio voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 2. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Ted Strickland the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Strickland 44% 11% 82% 38% 38% 48% 32% Kasich 39 73 9 38 45 33 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - - 4 2 1 1 DK/NA 15 16 8 19 13 17 14 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Strickland 34% 47% 52% 53% 40% 43% 53% Kasich 46 36 30 32 43 40 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 2 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 1 4 - - DK/NA 17 15 15 12 12 17 11 TREND: If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Ted Strickland the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote? Feb 23 Nov 11 Sep 15 Jul 3 May 6 Mar 17 Feb 5 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Strickland 44 40 46 43 51 51 56 Kasich 39 40 36 38 32 31 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 DK/NA 15 18 15 16 16 15 16 5. Is your opinion of - Ted Strickland favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 45% 22% 68% 45% 44% 47% 36% Unfavorable 36 59 15 37 42 31 47 Hvn't hrd enough 16 17 16 16 13 20 15 REFUSED 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Favorable 49% 44% 49% 59% 38% 43% 49% Unfavorable 36 37 31 31 35 39 37 Hvn't hrd enough 14 16 16 8 25 16 12 REFUSED 2 2 3 2 2 1 2 TREND: Is your opinion of - Ted Strickland favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FAVORABLE..... High Low Feb 23 Nov 11 Sep 15 Jul 3 May 6 Feb 5 Nov 11 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 45 38 43 42 53 60 38 Unfavorable 36 37 34 37 25 19 37 Hvn't hrd enough 16 23 20 18 18 17 23 REFUSED 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 6. Is your opinion of - John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 26% 42% 10% 29% 33% 21% 30% Unfavorable 10 4 17 10 13 8 7 Hvn't hrd enough 62 51 71 61 53 70 61 REFUSED 1 3 1 1 1 2 1 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Favorable 44% 22% 15% 23% 21% 28% 24% Unfavorable 17 9 11 4 9 8 13 Hvn't hrd enough 38 68 73 72 70 60 62 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 - 4 1 TREND: Is your opinion of - John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*High also 26% Jul 2009) FAVORABLE..... High Low Feb 23 Nov 11 Sep 15 Jul 3 May 6 Feb 23 Dec 10 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010* 2008 Favorable 26 23 22 26 22 26 18 Unfavorable 10 7 10 7 7 10 8 Hvn't hrd enough 62 69 68 66 70 62 73 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling his job as Governor? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 48% 28% 73% 44% 45% 50% 37% Disapprove 40 59 20 43 47 35 51 DK/NA 12 12 7 13 9 15 12 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Approve 53% 49% 46% 48% 41% 42% 49% Disapprove 39 39 41 40 45 43 42 DK/NA 8 12 13 12 14 15 9 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling his job as Governor? (*Low app also 45% Feb 2007) APPROVE....... DIS... High Low High Feb 23 Nov 11 Sep 15 Jul 3 Feb 5 Nov 11 Nov 11 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009* 2009 Approve 48 45 48 46 63 45 45 Disapprove 40 43 42 42 25 43 43 DK/NA 12 12 10 12 12 12 12 16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 31% 23% 44% 29% 28% 33% 29% Disapprove 51 57 37 56 59 43 54 DK/NA 19 20 19 15 13 23 17 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Approve 36% 28% 35% 24% 32% 30% 29% Disapprove 52 50 52 57 47 50 56 DK/NA 12 22 13 19 21 19 15 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? APPROVE....... High Low Feb 23 Nov 11 Sep 15 Jul 3 May 6 Dec 10 Dec 12 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2006 Approve 31 33 33 31 36 46 25 Disapprove 51 47 48 49 40 35 55 DK/NA 19 20 19 20 24 19 20 19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 44% 11% 81% 38% 37% 50% 28% Disapprove 52 87 13 57 59 45 68 DK/NA 5 2 6 5 4 5 3 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Approve 44% 49% 40% 31% 35% 43% 51% Disapprove 53 47 53 61 60 50 43 DK/NA 3 4 7 8 5 7 5 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Feb 23 Nov 12 Sep 16 Jul 7 May 6 Mar 18 Feb 6 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 44 45 53 49 62 57 67 Disapprove 52 50 42 44 31 33 16 DK/NA 5 5 5 8 7 11 17 20. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Very satisfied 2% 1% 4% 1% 2% 2% 3% Smwht satisfied 30 19 49 24 26 33 25 Smwht dissatisfied 36 39 31 38 34 38 37 Very dissatisfied 32 41 16 36 37 27 35 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 - 1 - Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Very satisfied 4% 1% 1% 4% 2% 2% - Smwht satisfied 33 30 34 16 30 25 30 Smwht dissatisfied 32 40 26 31 33 41 39 Very dissatisfied 29 29 39 46 34 32 31 DK/NA 1 - 1 3 1 - - TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? (*Low also 32% Mar 2009) VERY+SMWHT.... High Low Feb 23 Nov 11 Sep 15 Jul 7 May 6 Mar 21 Feb 23 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2007 2010* Very satisfied 2 3 2 2 4 5 2 Smwht satisfied 30 32 37 31 39 49 30 Smwht dissatisfied 36 37 35 36 32 28 36 Very dissatisfied 32 27 25 30 24 16 32 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 21. Do you think that Ted Strickland has kept his campaign promises so far or not? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 34% 17% 55% 31% 36% 32% 28% No 45 59 28 48 46 43 49 DK/NA 21 24 17 21 18 25 23 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Yes 38% 34% 37% 42% 33% 23% 37% No 45 43 45 44 44 51 46 DK/NA 17 23 18 14 24 26 17 TREND: Do you think that Ted Strickland has kept his campaign promises so far or not? YES.......... High Low Feb 23 Nov 11 Sep 15 Jul 3 May 6 Aug 14 Nov 11 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2009 Yes 34 32 37 34 44 47 32 No 45 43 40 40 32 31 43 DK/NA 21 25 23 25 24 22 25 22. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling the economy? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 35% 16% 60% 33% 35% 35% 29% Disapprove 53 71 32 56 55 51 61 DK/NA 12 13 9 11 9 14 10 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Approve 41% 35% 38% 29% 31% 33% 34% Disapprove 50 52 50 61 57 55 59 DK/NA 9 13 12 9 13 12 7 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling the economy? Feb 23 Nov 11 Sep 15 Jul 3 May 6 Mar 17 Feb 5 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 35 33 33 33 43 39 44 Disapprove 53 52 54 53 43 45 37 DK/NA 12 15 12 13 15 16 19 23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 39% 10% 76% 33% 35% 44% 24% Disapprove 57 89 20 64 62 52 73 DK/NA 4 1 4 4 3 4 2 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Approve 37% 44% 40% 28% 34% 38% 46% Disapprove 60 51 53 69 65 60 50 DK/NA 3 5 7 3 1 2 4 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy? Feb 23 Nov 12 Sep 16 Jul 7 May 6 Mar 18 Feb 6 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 39 42 48 46 57 53 58 Disapprove 57 53 46 48 36 36 21 DK/NA 4 5 6 6 7 11 21 24. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling the state budget? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 32% 15% 51% 30% 32% 32% 24% Disapprove 51 68 31 54 53 49 56 DK/NA 17 17 17 16 15 19 20 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Approve 38% 31% 31% 30% 23% 39% 35% Disapprove 49 51 52 51 58 48 52 DK/NA 14 18 17 19 19 13 13 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling the state budget? Feb 23 Sep 15 Jul 3 May 6 Mar 17 Feb 5 Dec 11 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 Approve 32 36 32 43 44 48 41 Disapprove 51 47 53 40 36 30 31 DK/NA 17 17 15 17 20 21 29 25. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job rebuilding Ohio's economy - Ted Strickland or John Kasich? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Strickland 35% 11% 64% 31% 33% 37% 26% Kasich 41 67 15 44 48 35 49 NO DIFF(VOL) 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 DK/NA 22 20 19 23 17 27 23 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Strickland 36% 36% 40% 42% 29% 35% 43% Kasich 47 40 34 32 41 43 37 NO DIFF(VOL) 2 2 - 4 2 3 2 DK/NA 15 23 25 22 28 19 18 TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job rebuilding Ohio's economy - Ted Strickland or John Kasich? Feb 23 Nov 12 2010 2009 Strickland 35 33 Kasich 41 41 NO DIFF(VOL) 2 - DK/NA 22 27 26. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job handling Ohio's state budget - Ted Strickland or John Kasich? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Strickland 36% 11% 66% 31% 36% 37% 26% Kasich 42 70 18 43 50 35 51 NO DIFF(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 21 19 15 25 14 27 21 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Strickland 35% 37% 41% 41% 30% 38% 42% Kasich 50 38 33 33 45 46 40 NO DIFF(VOL) 2 1 1 3 1 3 1 DK/NA 13 24 26 23 25 13 17 TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job handling Ohio's state budget - Ted Strickland or John Kasich? Feb 23 Nov 12 2010 2009 Strickland 36 34 Kasich 42 42 NO DIFF(VOL) 1 - DK/NA 21 25 27. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you trust more to do in office what they say they will do during the campaign - Ted Strickland or John Kasich? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Strickland 35% 13% 63% 31% 34% 36% 26% Kasich 36 63 13 36 41 31 46 NO DIFF(VOL) 6 3 5 8 8 4 6 DK/NA 22 21 19 25 16 28 23 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Strickland 33% 38% 44% 35% 29% 31% 40% Kasich 42 34 26 31 40 39 36 NO DIFF(VOL) 7 5 9 9 6 6 7 DK/NA 19 23 20 25 25 24 17 28. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you believe most shares your values - Ted Strickland or John Kasich? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Strickland 40% 14% 70% 37% 37% 42% 29% Kasich 36 66 11 35 42 31 50 NO DIFF(VOL) 3 3 1 5 5 2 1 DK/NA 21 18 17 23 16 25 20 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Strickland 42% 41% 42% 47% 31% 39% 49% Kasich 42 33 26 26 40 44 33 NO DIFF(VOL) 3 3 9 3 2 2 2 DK/NA 13 23 24 23 28 16 15 29. Currently, Democrats control the Ohio House and Republicans control the Ohio Senate. After the 2010 election would you prefer that the Democrats control both houses of the legislature, the Republicans control both houses of the legislature, or would you prefer that control is split as it is today? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Democrats 22% 1% 53% 12% 21% 22% 13% Republicans 21 52 1 14 24 19 32 Split 51 42 42 66 51 51 49 DK/NA 7 5 4 8 5 8 5 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Democrats 18% 25% 19% 16% 23% 18% 28% Republicans 18 22 21 15 26 21 21 Split 60 47 54 58 45 49 48 DK/NA 5 6 5 11 6 12 4 36. Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Right thing 55% 72% 43% 53% 63% 48% 66% Shldn't be inv 39 21 52 41 32 46 29 DK/NA 6 7 5 6 6 6 5 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Right thing 63% 52% 50% 57% 56% 56% 55% Shldn't be inv 30 42 45 35 41 39 37 DK/NA 7 6 5 8 4 6 7 TREND: Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now? Feb 23 Nov 12 2010 2009 Right thing 55 48 Shouldn't be inv 39 43 DK/NA 6 9 37. Do you approve or disapprove of President Obama's decision to send 30,000 additional troops to Afghanistan? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 55% 67% 48% 54% 64% 48% 61% Disapprove 39 29 45 41 33 45 33 DK/NA 5 4 7 5 4 7 6 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Approve 62% 53% 51% 53% 55% 56% 57% Disapprove 33 42 45 35 42 35 38 DK/NA 6 5 4 11 3 9 5 38. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling - health care? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 34% 8% 65% 29% 29% 39% 23% Disapprove 58 87 26 64 65 53 72 DK/NA 7 5 8 7 6 8 5 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Approve 28% 42% 26% 26% 27% 36% 46% Disapprove 67 51 63 70 63 56 50 DK/NA 5 6 11 4 10 8 4 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling health care? Feb 23 Nov 12 Sep 16 2010 2009 2009 Approve 34 36 44 Disapprove 58 57 45 DK/NA 7 6 10 39. Who do you trust to do a better job handling health care - President Obama or Republicans in Congress? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Pres Obama 40% 9% 76% 35% 37% 43% 25% Reps in Cong 37 76 8 34 39 36 51 DK/NA 23 16 15 31 24 22 24 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Pres Obama 32% 47% 38% 31% 36% 38% 46% Reps in Cong 41 32 40 46 43 37 38 DK/NA 27 21 22 24 21 25 16 TREND: Who do you trust to do a better job handling health care - President Obama or the Republicans in Congress? Feb 23 Nov 12 Sep 16 2010 2009 2009 President Obama 40 40 49 Reps in Congress 37 40 28 DK/NA 23 21 23 40. From what you've heard or read, do you mostly approve or mostly disapprove of the proposed changes to the health care system under consideration in Congress? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Mostly approve 33% 9% 59% 30% 31% 36% 23% Mostly disapprove 56 82 26 61 60 52 67 DK/NA 11 8 15 9 9 12 10 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Mostly approve 30% 40% 33% 23% 27% 30% 40% Mostly disapprove 60 51 52 68 60 60 52 DK/NA 11 9 15 9 13 11 8 41. Generally speaking, do you think the proposed changes to the health care system under consideration in Congress go too far, not far enough, or are they about right? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Too far 43% 68% 16% 47% 47% 39% 55% Not far enough 29 13 43 29 28 30 21 About right 18 9 26 17 15 20 13 DK/NA 10 9 14 7 10 10 11 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Too far 46% 40% 33% 58% 48% 43% 36% Not far enough 29 29 29 22 28 32 34 About right 15 20 24 10 18 13 22 DK/NA 10 11 14 10 6 11 8 42. Do you think President Obama and Congress should continue to try to pass a health care overhaul plan or do you think they should give up and go on to other matters? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Continue health care 53% 27% 78% 52% 47% 59% 45% On to other matters 44 69 21 45 51 38 53 DK/NA 2 4 1 2 2 3 2 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Continue health care 51% 58% 52% 44% 44% 55% 58% On to other matters 45 39 45 55 54 44 41 DK/NA 3 3 2 1 2 1 1
