June 29, 2010 - Strickland Holds Off Kasich In Tight Ohio Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Want Arizona-Type Immigration Law Word format Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland holds a slight 43 - 38 percent lead over Republican challenger John Kasich, statistically unchanged from 44 - 38 percent in April, and 43 - 38 percent in March, at least partly because Kasich remains unknown to half of Ohio voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Ohio voters say 45 - 35 percent they would like Ohio to pass an immigration law similar to the law in Arizona, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. In the Governor's race, Strickland leads among Democrats 81 - 4 percent and among independents 40 - 37 percent, while Kasich leads among Republicans 81 - 6 percent. Despite Strickland's lead in the horse race, voters disapprove 54 - 33 percent of his handling of the economy and give him a 52 - 31 percent failing grade on handling the state budget. Voters say 48 - 31 percent that the Governor has not kept campaign promises. These are Strickland's lowest scores on all three questions. "Incumbents generally start a campaign with a name recognition edge and that is certainly the case in the Governor's race. Sometimes as the challenger becomes better known the race narrows. That has yet to happen in this case, although the share of voters who do not know enough about Kasich to form an opinion is at 52 percent, down from 62 percent April 29," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Kasich still has four months until Election Day and Strickland's other numbers show his potential vulnerability, but at this point the Governor remains ahead despite the anti-incumbency wave sweeping the country." "The good news for Strickland is that he is ahead. Nevertheless, when an incumbent governor is getting less than 45 percent of the vote four months out, it should make him concerned," Brown added. Ohio voters give Strickland a split 44 - 42 percent job approval rating, down from 47 - 38 percent in April and 49 - 40 percent approval in March. They view him favorably by a 42 - 37 percent margin, with 19 percent saying they don't know enough about him to form an opinion. Kasich is viewed favorably by 28 percent, unfavorably by 19 percent with 52 percent unable to make a judgment. An indication of how Kasich's lack of visibility is hurting his candidacy is that among white, evangelical Christians, one of the most GOP-leaning groups in the electorate, his favorability is 37 - 11 percent, as 52 percent of such voters don't know enough about him to have an opinion. Ohio voters' mixed feelings about Strickland's job performance are reflected on similarly close numbers when voters are asked to compare the two candidates on key issues: Voters split on who would do a better job rebuilding the state economy, with 39 percent for Kasich and 38 percent for Strickland; Voters say 41 - 37 percent that Kasich would do a better job handling the state budget; Voters split on who they trust more to keep campaign promises, with 37 percent for Strickland and 36 percent for Kasich. Immigration Ohio voters approve 48 - 28 percent of Arizona's immigration law. They say 72 - 22 percent that immigration reform should move in the direction of stricter enforcement rather than integrating illegal immigrants into American society. The new law will not lead to discrimination against Hispanics, voters say 43 - 40 percent. And by an overwhelming 79 - 10 percent they think an economic boycott of Arizona is a bad idea. "Ohio voters like the Arizona approach to illegal immigration so much they would like to see a similar law passed by the State Legislature," said Brown. From June 22 - 27, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,107 registered Ohio voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Ted Strickland the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Strickland 43% 6% 81% 40% 38% 47% 29% Kasich 38 81 4 37 46 32 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2 4 2 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 DK/NA 15 11 11 16 13 16 15 TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Ted Strickland the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote? (Data available upon request back to Feb 2009) Jun 29 Apr 29 Mar 31 Feb 23 Nov 11 Sep 15 Jul 3 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 Strickland 43 44 43 44 40 46 43 Kasich 38 38 38 39 40 36 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 1 2 1 1 1 DK/NA 15 17 17 15 18 15 16 3. Is your opinion of - Ted Strickland favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 42% 17% 68% 41% 39% 44% 34% Unfavorable 37 62 10 41 41 34 49 Hvn't hrd enough 19 17 20 17 18 20 14 REFUSED 2 4 2 1 2 3 3 TREND: Is your opinion of Ted Strickland favorable, unfavorable or haven't you . heard enough about him? FAVORABLE..... High Low Jun 29 Apr 29 Mar 31 Feb 23 Nov 11 Feb 5 Nov 11 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 42 45 46 45 38 60 38 Unfavorable 37 32 35 36 37 19 37 Hvn't hrd enough 19 20 16 16 23 17 23 REFUSED 2 3 3 2 2 3 2 4. Is your opinion of - John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 28% 53% 6% 28% 36% 22% 37% Unfavorable 19 5 32 19 19 18 11 Hvn't hrd enough 52 40 61 52 44 59 52 REFUSED 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 TREND: Is your opinion of John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FAVORABLE..... High Low Jun 29 Apr 29 Mar 31 Feb 23 Nov 11 Jun 29 Dec 10 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2010 2008 Favorable 28 27 24 26 23 28 18 Unfavorable 19 10 10 10 7 19 8 Hvn't hrd enough 52 62 64 62 69 52 73 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling his job as Governor? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 44% 24% 66% 44% 45% 44% 37% Disapprove 42 67 17 46 48 38 52 DK/NA 13 10 17 10 7 18 10 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling his job as Governor? APPROVE....... DIS... High Low High Jun 29 Apr 29 Mar 31 Feb 23 Feb 5 Jun 29 Nov 11 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2010 2009 Approve 44 47 49 48 63 44 45 Disapprove 42 38 40 40 25 42 43 DK/NA 13 15 11 12 12 13 12 13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 33% 30% 40% 28% 32% 33% 31% Disapprove 47 52 38 53 53 42 48 DK/NA 20 18 23 19 16 24 21 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? APPROVE....... High Low Jun 29 Apr 29 Mar 31 Feb 23 Nov 11 Dec 10 Dec 12 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2008 2006 Approve 33 35 34 31 33 46 25 Disapprove 47 47 46 51 47 35 55 DK/NA 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 18. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Very satisfied 3% 1% 4% 4% 4% 2% 4% Smwht satisfied 37 29 55 30 32 42 30 Smwht dissatisfied 34 40 26 34 36 32 39 Very dissatisfied 25 30 14 33 27 24 28 DK/NA - - 1 - - - - TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? (*Low also 32% Mar 2009) VERY+SMWHT SAT High Low Jun 29 Apr 29 Mar 31 Feb 23 Nov 11 Mar 21 Feb 23 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2007 2010* Very satisfied 3 3 3 2 3 5 2 Smwht satisfied 37 38 35 30 32 49 30 Smwht dissatisfied 34 30 35 36 37 28 36 Very dissatisfied 25 28 26 32 27 16 32 DK/NA - 1 1 1 1 1 1 19. Do you think that Ted Strickland has kept his campaign promises so far or not? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 31% 16% 46% 29% 35% 28% 24% No 48 64 29 53 48 48 57 DK/NA 21 20 24 18 18 24 18 TREND: Do you think that Ted Strickland has kept his campaign promises so far or not? YES.......... High Low Jun 29 Apr 29 Mar 31 Feb 23 Nov 11 Aug 14 Jun 29 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2008 2010 Yes 31 37 36 34 32 47 31 No 48 41 41 45 43 31 48 DK/NA 21 22 24 21 25 22 21 20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling the economy? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 33% 17% 54% 32% 33% 34% 26% Disapprove 54 73 27 61 57 51 65 DK/NA 13 9 19 8 10 15 9 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling the economy? (*Low also 33% Nov 2009, Sep 2009 & Jul 2009) APPROVE....... High Low Jun 29 Apr 29 Mar 31 Feb 23 Nov 11 Feb 5 Jun 29 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2010* Approve 33 36 35 35 33 44 33 Disapprove 54 53 52 53 52 37 54 DK/NA 13 11 13 12 15 19 13 22. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling the state budget? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 31% 16% 50% 31% 33% 30% 24% Disapprove 52 70 30 57 54 51 65 DK/NA 16 14 20 12 13 19 12 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling the state budget? APPROVE....... High Low Jun 29 Apr 29 Mar 31 Feb 23 Sep 15 Feb 5 Jun 29 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2010 Approve 31 36 37 32 36 48 31 Disapprove 52 48 47 51 47 30 52 DK/NA 16 16 16 17 17 21 16 23. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - rebuilding Ohio's economy, Ted Strickland or John Kasich? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Strickland 38% 11% 68% 34% 35% 40% 25% Kasich 39 72 11 42 46 34 53 NO DIFF(VOL) 4 3 3 6 4 4 4 DK/NA 19 14 19 19 14 23 19 TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - rebuilding Ohio's economy, Ted Strickland or John Kasich? Jun 29 Apr 29 Mar 31 Feb 23 Nov 12 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 Strickland 38 39 38 35 33 Kasich 39 41 38 41 41 NO DIFF(VOL) 4 2 2 2 - DK/NA 19 18 22 22 27 24. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling Ohio's state budget, Ted Strickland or John Kasich? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Strickland 37% 9% 68% 35% 34% 39% 23% Kasich 41 75 12 42 47 37 54 NO DIFF(VOL) 3 3 3 4 3 4 6 DK/NA 18 13 17 19 16 20 17 TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling Ohio's state budget, Ted Strickland or John Kasich? Jun 29 Apr 29 Mar 31 Feb 23 Nov 12 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 Strickland 37 39 38 36 34 Kasich 41 40 39 42 42 NO DIFF(VOL) 3 2 2 1 - DK/NA 18 19 21 21 25 25. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - trust more to do in office what they say they will do during the campaign, Ted Strickland or John Kasich? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Strickland 37% 9% 69% 33% 34% 40% 22% Kasich 36 71 9 35 40 32 48 NO DIFF(VOL) 8 6 7 12 8 9 10 DK/NA 19 14 15 20 18 19 19 TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - trust more to do in office what they say they will do during the campaign, Ted Strickland or John Kasich? Jun 29 Apr 29 Mar 31 Feb 23 2010 2010 2010 2010 Strickland 37 41 40 35 Kasich 36 35 35 36 NO DIFF(VOL) 8 7 5 6 DK/NA 19 18 20 22 26. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - believe most shares your values, Ted Strickland or John Kasich? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Strickland 39% 8% 73% 36% 35% 42% 26% Kasich 38 75 10 37 45 33 51 NO DIFF(VOL) 4 2 3 6 4 4 5 DK/NA 19 15 14 20 16 21 19 TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - believe most shares your values, Ted Strickland or John Kasich? Jun 29 Apr 29 Mar 31 Feb 23 2010 2010 2010 2010 Strickland 39 42 42 40 Kasich 38 36 34 36 NO DIFF(VOL) 4 3 2 3 DK/NA 19 19 22 21 27. Currently, Democrats control the Ohio House and Republicans control the Ohio Senate. After the 2010 election would you prefer that the Democrats control both houses of the legislature, the Republicans control both houses of the legislature, or would you prefer that control is split as it is today? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Democrats 22% - 53% 14% 20% 24% 13% Republicans 25 60 1 19 30 21 40 Split 49 37 43 63 47 50 42 DK/NA 4 3 3 4 4 5 5 TREND: Currently, Democrats control the Ohio House and Republicans control the Ohio Senate. After the 2010 election would you prefer that the Democrats control both houses of the legislature, the Republicans control both houses of the legislature, or would you prefer that control is split as it is today? Jun 29 Apr 29 Mar 31 Feb 23 Nov 11 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 Democrats 22 23 24 22 19 Republicans 25 24 23 21 22 Split 49 48 50 51 52 DK/NA 4 5 4 7 6 35. Do you think immigration reform should primarily move in the direction of integrating illegal immigrants into American society or in the direction of stricter enforcement of laws against illegal immigration? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Integrating 22% 7% 37% 23% 22% 22% 10% Enforcement 72 87 56 73 73 70 84 DK/NA 6 6 7 4 5 7 6 TREND: Do you think immigration reform should primarily move in the direction of integrating illegal immigrants into American society or in the direction of stricter enforcement of laws against illegal immigration? Jun 29 Dec 5 2010 2007 Integrating 22 20 Enforcement 72 71 DK/NA 6 9 36. Based on what you've heard or read, do you approve or disapprove of Arizona's new immigration law? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 48% 68% 29% 51% 57% 40% 60% Disapprove 28 12 44 27 27 28 17 DK/NA 24 20 28 22 16 31 23 37. Would you want Ohio to pass a law similar to Arizona's new immigration law or not? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 45% 66% 24% 49% 55% 36% 55% No 35 18 52 36 32 38 24 DK/NA 20 16 24 15 13 26 20 38. Do you think Arizona's new immigration law will or will not lead to discrimination against Hispanics? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Will 40% 24% 58% 37% 36% 44% 25% Will not 43 63 25 47 52 35 56 DK/NA 17 13 18 16 13 21 20 39. Some have suggested that Arizona should be boycotted because of its new immigration law. Do you think a boycott of Arizona is a good idea or a bad idea? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Good idea 10% 3% 19% 9% 9% 11% 8% Bad idea 79 90 68 82 84 75 84 DK/NA 10 7 13 9 7 13 9
