September 16, 2010 - Kasich Has Double-Digit Lead In Ohio Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Independent Voters Back Republican 2-1 Word format Republican challenger John Kasich has a 54 - 37 percent lead over Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland in the race to be Ohio's next chief state executive, with much of his lead due to overwhelming support among independent voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters released today. Kasich, a former congressman and Fox News host, holds even larger leads over Gov. Strickland when voters are asked which candidate would be better rebuilding the state's ailing economy and handling the state budget, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey, conducted by live interviewers, finds. This first general election measure of likely voters in Ohio for this election cycle can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters. Kasich leads among men 60 - 31 percent and gets 47 percent of women voters to Strickland's 45 percent. Kasich leads among Republicans 91 - 4 percent and 55 - 32 percent among independent voters. Strickland leads 84 - 8 percent among Democrats. "Independent voters often decide elections in Ohio and Kasich leads among the unaffiliated by 23 points. Not only that, but John Kasich does slightly better among Democrats than Strickland does among Republicans," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "There are almost seven weeks until Election Day, but Gov. Ted Strickland has his work cut out for him. One reason for the size of Kasich's lead is that Republicans and anti-Obama independents and Democrats seem more enthusiastic about voting this year." "Ohio is not an island. Clearly Kasich is benefitting from the national anti-incumbent, anti- Democratic wave which seems to be sweeping the country," said Brown. "Ohio, which is the most important swing state in the country come presidential elections, is also a good marker for the off- year balloting. If Kasich were to lead a Republican sweep in Ohio, it would be a good indication that the Republican landslide many are predicting nationally might come to fruition." The vast majority, 85 percent, of likely voters who choose a candidate say their mind is made up, while 14 percent say they might change their mind. Strickland support is a little softer as 19 percent of his backers might change their minds, compared to 11 percent of Kasich supporters. Likely voters disapprove 59 - 34 percent of the job Strickland is doing and give him a negative 52 - 36 percent favorability rating. Kasich is viewed favorably by 47 percent and unfavorably by 27 percent with 24 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion. Voters say 55 - 32 percent that Kasich would do a better job than Strickland rebuilding the state's economy and 54 - 32 percent that he would do a better job handling the state budget. "Kasich even has a 53 - 35 percent lead over Strickland when voters are asked who most shares their values, a measurement that tends to favor Democrats," said Brown. "Often Republicans win because voters see them as the more competent, but at this point Kasich is seen not only better able to do the job, but also more in tune with voters' values." Ohio voters are among the most pessimistic in the country. Only 2 percent say they are "very satisfied" with the way things are going in Ohio and another 21 percent say they are "somewhat satisfied." A total of 77 percent are "somewhat dissatisfied" or "very dissatisfied." "With more than three out of four voters unsatisfied with the way things are going in Ohio, it's no surprise that Gov. Strickland trails so badly. In bad times, governors and presidents pay the political price and since Barack Obama is not on the ballot this year, Ted Strickland is the focus of unhappy Ohioans," said Brown. From September 9 - 14, Quinnipiac University surveyed 730 Ohio likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. If the election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Ted Strickland the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Strickland or Kasich? This table includes "Leaners". LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Strickland 37% 4% 84% 32% 31% 45% 20% Kasich 54 91 8 55 60 47 72 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 2 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 4 6 10 7 7 7 1a. (If express choice q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS........ CAND CHOICE Q1 Tot TS JK Made up 85% 80% 88% Might change 14 19 11 DK/NA 1 1 1 2. (If voting for Strickland) Is your vote for Governor mainly for Strickland or against Kasich? (*subgroup not large enough to report) LIKELY STRICKLAND VOTERS.......................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep* Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl* For Strickland 62% 67% 52% 60% 64% Against Kasich 28 23 42 32 24 DK/NA 10 10 6 7 12 3. (If voting for Kasich) Is your vote for Governor mainly for Kasich or against Strickland? (*subgroup not large enough to report) LIKELY KASICH VOTERS.............................. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem* Ind Men Wom Evnglcl For Kasich 53% 61% 49% 51% 57% 52% Against Strickland 42 35 48 44 40 41 DK/NA 4 5 3 5 3 7 4. Is your opinion of - Ted Strickland favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 36% 9% 73% 32% 34% 39% 20% Unfavorable 52 81 12 57 59 44 68 Hvn't hrd enough 9 8 11 9 6 12 10 REFUSED 3 2 3 2 1 4 2 5. Is your opinion of - John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 47% 78% 12% 46% 55% 37% 59% Unfavorable 27 5 53 26 24 31 17 Hvn't hrd enough 24 15 33 26 20 29 22 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 16. Which one of these four qualities matter most in deciding how you vote for Governor? The candidate is honest and trustworthy, has the right experience, can bring about needed change to Columbus or shares your values? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Trustworthy 24% 16% 35% 22% 19% 31% 29% Experience 10 5 18 8 9 11 3 Change 27 34 20 27 27 27 23 Shares values 36 43 25 38 42 28 43 DK/NA 3 2 3 6 3 3 3 17. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Strickland 32% 2% 73% 28% 28% 37% 16% Kasich 55 90 13 55 60 48 70 NO DIFF(VOL) 3 1 3 6 4 3 2 DK/NA 10 7 12 11 8 13 12 18. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling Ohio's state budget Ted Strickland or John Kasich? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Strickland 32% 3% 67% 31% 27% 38% 18% Kasich 54 84 20 53 61 46 68 NO DIFF(VOL) 3 1 4 4 4 2 2 DK/NA 11 12 9 11 9 13 12 19. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - trust more to do in office what they say they will do during the campaign Ted Strickland or John Kasich? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Strickland 33% 2% 72% 31% 29% 37% 17% Kasich 51 85 14 50 57 45 69 NO DIFF(VOL) 5 2 4 9 6 4 2 DK/NA 10 10 10 10 8 13 11 20. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - believe most shares your values Ted Strickland or John Kasich? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Strickland 35% 3% 78% 29% 31% 39% 16% Kasich 53 88 13 53 60 46 70 NO DIFF(VOL) 3 1 3 4 3 3 2 DK/NA 9 8 6 14 6 12 12 21. When Barack Obama campaigns for Ted Strickland does that make you more likely to vote for Strickland, less likely to vote for Strickland, or doesn't it make a difference? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl More likely 11% 1% 28% 7% 11% 11% 4% Less likely 36 63 6 36 36 36 55 Doesn't make diff 52 35 64 57 52 52 41 DK/NA 1 - 1 - 1 1 1 22. Which type of candidate would you prefer to see as governor, someone with years of government experience or a government outsider? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Experience 47% 36% 76% 35% 43% 51% 42% Outsider 41 50 16 51 47 34 49 DK/NA 12 15 8 14 10 14 9 23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling his job as Governor? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 34% 4% 74% 32% 31% 38% 16% Disapprove 59 91 16 64 64 53 80 DK/NA 6 5 10 5 4 9 4 26. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Very satisfied 2% 0% 4% 1% 2% 2% 0% Smwht satisfied 21 4 49 14 17 25 13 Smwht dissatisfied 32 34 31 32 40 24 24 Very dissatisfied 45 62 16 52 41 49 62 DK/NA 1 - 1 - 1 1 - 27. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling the economy? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 31% 2% 71% 25% 29% 33% 12% Disapprove 63 93 20 69 67 59 83 DK/NA 6 4 8 6 4 9 5
