September 17, 2010 - GOP's Portman Up 20 Points In Ohio Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Give Obama A 22-Point Thumbs Down Word format Republican Rob Portman holds a 55 - 35 percent lead over Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher among likely voters in the race for Ohio's U.S. Senate seat, while President Barack Obama has a 60 - 38 percent disapproval rating, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll. By a 58 - 37 percent margin, likely Ohio voters want a U.S. Senator who opposes President Obama's policies, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey, conducted by live interviewers, finds. And by 49 - 31 percent, voters want Republicans rather than Democrats to control the U.S. Senate. This is the first general election survey of likely voters in Ohio in this election cycle and can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters. Portman, a former congressman and cabinet member under President George W. Bush, has a commanding 55 - 30 percent lead among independent voters. He leads 91 - 2 percent among Republicans and trails Fisher 81 - 13 percent among Democrats. Portman leads 61 - 30 percent among men and 49 - 41 percent among women. Among likely voters who choose a candidate, 18 percent say they might change their mind. Among Fisher backers, 26 percent might change their mind, compared to 13 percent of Portman backers. "It's difficult to find any good news for Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher in these numbers. Likely voters in Ohio, as is the case nationally, are angry at the status quo and with Democrats controlling Congress and the White House. Fisher is taking it on the chin from those who are trying to send a message to the White House," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "A Democrat who is losing among women likely voters by 8 points is a candidate in trouble." Although a major player in Ohio politics for two decades, Fisher remains somewhat unknown to voters, with 33 percent not knowing enough about him to have an opinion, while 36 percent view him unfavorably; 29 percent favorably. Portman is viewed favorably by 44 percent and unfavorably by 20 percent, while 34 percent haven't formed an opinion. "For someone who has been around for some time, Fisher has somehow failed to catch the public's attention," said Brown. "Among the likely Ohio electorate for this November, President Barack Obama is not a popular fellow. Independent likely voters disapprove 65 - 31 percent of the job he is doing. With the president such a heavy weight around the neck of Democratic candidates, it will be hard for one to win such a high-profile office this year in Ohio," Brown said. One reason for the president's poor rating, at least in Ohio, is his health care overhaul plan. Likely voters disapprove of it by a 65 - 30 percent margin. "White House senior advisor David Axelrod says Americans will come to like the health insurance plan, but it sure doesn't look like that will be the case in Ohio by Nov. 2," said Brown. From September 9 - 14, Quinnipiac University surveyed 730 Ohio likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 6. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Lee Fisher the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q6) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Fisher or Portman? This table includes "Leaners". LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Fisher 35% 2% 81% 30% 30% 41% 14% Portman 55 91 13 55 61 49 77 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 9 6 6 14 8 9 9 6a. (If express choice q6) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS.......... CAND CHOICE Q6.. Tot LF RP Made up 82% 74% 87% Might change 18 26 13 DK/NA - - - 7. (If voting for Fisher) Is your vote for Senator mainly for Fisher or against Portman? (*subgroup not large enough to report) LIKELY FISHER VOTERS.............................. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep* Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl* For Fisher 63% 65% 56% 69% 57% Against Portman 26 24 31 28 24 DK/NA 12 11 13 3 19 8. (If voting for Portman) Is your vote for Senator mainly for Portman or against Fisher? (*subgroup not large enough to report) LIKELY PORTMAN VOTERS............................. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem* Ind Men Wom Evnglcl For Portman 64% 67% 63% 65% 63% 68% Against Fisher 30 27 34 32 27 25 DK/NA 6 7 3 3 10 8 9. Is your opinion of - Lee Fisher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 29% 8% 56% 26% 28% 31% 12% Unfavorable 36 56 11 38 41 32 49 Hvn't hrd enough 33 33 32 35 30 36 39 REFUSED 2 3 1 1 2 2 1 10. Is your opinion of - Rob Portman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 44% 69% 13% 43% 51% 37% 60% Unfavorable 20 9 39 16 19 21 8 Hvn't hrd enough 34 20 47 38 28 41 32 REFUSED 2 1 1 3 2 2 1 11. Which one of these four qualities matter most in deciding how you vote for United States Senator; the candidate is honest and trustworthy, has the right experience, can bring about needed change to Washington or shares your values? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Trustworthy 22% 14% 31% 21% 19% 26% 22% Experience 8 4 15 7 7 10 6 Change 28 31 22 29 27 29 22 Shares values 38 46 29 39 44 32 46 DK/NA 4 5 2 4 4 4 3 12. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you believe most shares your values Lee Fisher or Rob Portman? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Fisher 33% 5% 75% 24% 31% 35% 13% Portman 49 79 10 50 53 43 67 NO DIFF(VOL) 2 1 - 5 3 2 2 DK/NA 16 14 14 20 13 20 18 13. Would you like to see the next United States Senator elected from Ohio generally support Barack Obama's policies or oppose Barack Obama's policies? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 37% 1% 85% 32% 32% 41% 16% Oppose 58 97 8 62 63 52 79 DK/NA 5 2 6 7 5 6 4 14. Would you prefer to have the Democrats or the Republicans control the U.S Senate next year, or doesn't it matter to you? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Democrats 31% 0% 81% 20% 28% 35% 12% Republicans 49 88 5 50 53 45 69 Doesn't matter 16 10 13 24 15 17 16 DK/NA 4 2 1 6 4 3 3 15. Which type of candidate would you prefer to see as a United States Senator, someone with years of government experience or a government outsider? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Experience 40% 29% 67% 30% 34% 46% 34% Outsider 46 58 21 53 53 38 56 DK/NA 14 13 12 17 12 17 10 24. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Lee Fisher is handling his job as Ohio's lieutenant governor? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 31% 7% 65% 28% 27% 36% 15% Disapprove 45 70 11 48 52 37 61 DK/NA 24 23 24 24 21 28 24 25. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 38% 4% 86% 31% 35% 41% 15% Disapprove 60 96 11 65 63 56 83 DK/NA 3 - 3 4 2 4 2 28. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 32% 2% 73% 28% 30% 34% 12% Disapprove 65 98 21 69 68 62 84 DK/NA 3 - 6 4 3 4 4 29. Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Right thing 55% 74% 37% 54% 59% 51% 62% Shldn't be invl 36 18 55 36 35 36 28 DK/NA 9 9 9 10 6 13 11 30. Do you approve or disapprove of the federal health care overhaul? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 30% 3% 72% 22% 28% 32% 8% Disapprove 65 96 23 70 69 60 86 DK/NA 5 1 6 9 3 7 6
