October 6, 2010 - Portman Holds 19-Point Lead In Ohio Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Angry, Pessimistic Voters Back Republican Word format Republican Rob Portman remains far ahead of Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, 55 - 36 percent among likely voters, in Ohio's U.S. Senate race according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today that shows the race unchanged from Portman's 55 - 35 percent likely voter lead September 17. By a 44 - 33 percent margin, likely voters in Ohio want the Republicans to take control of the U.S. Senate after the November elections, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey finds. Voters also want, 54 - 39 percent, their senator to oppose President Obama's policies. Portman leads 93 - 3 percent among Republicans and 67 - 25 percent among independent voters, while Fisher carries Democrats 80 - 10 percent. Portman has a small 47 - 43 percent lead among women, but buries Fisher among men 63 - 30 percent. "It would seem that Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher's best shot at victory might be finding a way to stop men from voting. Otherwise, he faces an incredibly uphill battle in the four weeks before Election Day in reversing a 33-point disadvantage among male voters," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The fact that Fisher hasn't been able to make up any ground since the last Quinnipiac University poll is a bad omen for his ability to make this a close race." "The fact that Ohio likely voters want their U.S. senator to oppose President Barack Obama and want Republicans to control the Senate is further evidence that it will be very, very difficult for Fisher to catch Portman," said Brown. Portman also benefits from likely voter anger and dissatisfaction with Washington, D.C., and voter frustration with the economy. In describing their feelings about the federal government, 37 percent of likely voters say they are angry and another 38 percent say they are dissatisfied with it. Angry voters back Portman 81 - 12 percent. Looking at Ohio's economy, 45 percent of likely voters say it is getting worse, and Portman leads among this group 78 - 14 percent. Among the 14 percent who say the economy is getting better, Fisher leads 79 - 12 percent. The 40 percent of voters who say the economy is the same split 46 - 45 percent. From September 29 - October 3, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,025 Ohio likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Lee Fischer the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Fisher or Portman? (This table includes Leaners and early voters) LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).............. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Fisher 36% 3% 80% 25% 30% 43% 26% Portman 55 93 10 67 63 47 71 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 - 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 8 4 9 8 6 10 2 ANGRY WITH RATING ECONOMY Q21 FedGvQ22 Better Worse Same Fisher 12% 79% 14% 46% Portman 81 12 78 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 6 8 8 9 TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q6) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Fisher or Portman? This table includes Leaners. LIKELY VOTERS.. Oct 6 Sep 17 2010 2010 Fisher 36 35 Portman 55 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 8 9 4a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY............... CAND CHOICE Q6 Tot LF RP Made up 85% 83% 87% Might change 14 17 13 DK/NA - - - 5. Is your vote for Senator mainly for Fisher or against Portman? (*subgroups not large enough to report) LIKELY FISHER VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)....... WtBrnAgn Tot *Rep Dem Ind Men Wom *Evnglcl For Fisher 75% 79% 66% 72% 77% Against Portman 18 15 30 21 17 DK/NA 6 7 4 7 6 6. Is your vote for Senator mainly for Portman or against Fisher? (*subgroup not large enough to report) LIKELY PORTMAN VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)...... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep *Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl For Portman 60% 69% 55% 61% 57% 69% Against Fisher 34 27 37 32 38 28 DK/NA 6 4 8 7 5 3 7. Is your opinion of - Lee Fisher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).............. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 30% 8% 59% 23% 24% 36% 21% Unfavorable 44 70 10 54 50 38 58 Hvn't hrd enough 24 19 29 21 24 24 18 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 TREND: Is your opinion of - Lee Fisher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.. Oct 6 Sep 17 2010 2010 Favorable 30 29 Unfavorable 44 36 Hvn't hrd enough 24 33 REFUSED 2 2 8. Is your opinion of - Rob Portman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).............. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 45% 76% 11% 53% 49% 41% 62% Unfavorable 18 1 39 14 18 19 9 Hvn't hrd enough 35 22 48 30 32 38 28 REFUSED 2 1 1 3 1 3 2 TREND: Is your opinion of - Rob Portman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.. Oct 6 Sep 17 2010 2010 Favorable 45 44 Unfavorable 18 20 Hvn't hrd enough 35 34 REFUSED 2 2 9. Which one of these four qualities matter most in deciding how you vote for United States Senator - The candidateis honest and trustworthy, has the right experience, can bring about needed change to Washington or shares your values? LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).............. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Honest 28% 22% 30% 31% 25% 30% 32% Right experience 9 7 12 7 9 9 5 Brings change to DC 28 28 22 35 28 28 28 Shares values 32 40 31 24 35 28 32 DK/NA 4 3 5 3 3 4 4 10. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you believe most shares your values Lee Fisher or Rob Portman? LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).............. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Fisher 33% 4% 72% 23% 27% 39% 23% Portman 52 86 10 64 58 45 67 NO DIFFERENCE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 2 1 - DK/NA 14 10 17 12 13 14 10 11. Would you like to see the next United States Senator elected from Ohio generally support Barack Obama's policies or oppose Barack Obama's policies? LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).............. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 39% 5% 83% 26% 34% 45% 24% Oppose 54 92 9 67 61 46 72 DK/NA 7 4 7 7 5 9 5 12. Would you prefer to have Democrats or Republicans control the U.S. Senate next year or doesn't it matter to you? LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).............. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Democrats 33% 2% 80% 15% 30% 36% 23% Republicans 44 88 3 50 50 38 60 Doesn't matter 20 9 14 30 17 23 15 DK/NA 3 2 3 4 4 3 2 ANGRY WITH FedGvQ22 Democrats 8% Republicans 71 Doesn't matter 17 DK/NA 4 18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Lee Fisher is handling his job as Ohio's Lieutenant Governor? LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).............. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 31% 8% 64% 21% 29% 33% 26% Disapprove 50 75 19 59 54 47 60 DK/NA 19 17 17 20 17 20 13 21. Do you think Ohio's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).............. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Better 14% 4% 31% 6% 13% 15% 12% Worse 45 64 18 52 47 42 55 The same 40 31 49 41 39 41 33 DK/NA 2 1 2 2 2 2 - 22. I am going to mention four phrases and ask you which one best describes how you feel about the way the federal government works. Do you feel enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not angry, or angry? LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).............. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Enthusiastic, 3% 2% 7% 2% 1% 5% 1% Sat/Not enthusiastic 20 4 45 12 15 25 18 Dis/Not angry 38 40 36 39 40 36 38 Angry 37 52 11 48 43 31 41 DK/NA 1 3 - 1 - 2 2
