October 20, 2010 - Portman Cruising To Big Win In Ohio Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Want Republicans To Control U.S. Senate Word format Republican Rob Portman heads into the home stretch with a 55 - 34 percent likely voter lead over Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher in the race for Ohio's U.S. Senate seat, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. The independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey, conducted by live interviewers, finds Portman's lead statistically unchanged from his leads of 55 - 35 percent September 17 and 55 - 36 percent October 6. "Given that Lt. Gov. Fisher has been trailing Portman by roughly 20 points since the fall campaign got underway, there's not much reason to think he can close that gap appreciably in the final two weeks of the campaign," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Other than self-identified Democrats, it is hard to find a demographic group that supports Fisher." One reason for Portman's prohibitive lead is that Ohio likely voters are in favor of Republicans taking control of the U.S. Senate, 44 - 34 percent. Also, voters say 54 - 40 percent they want the state's next senator to oppose, rather than support, President Barack Obama's policies. Portman is beating Fisher 92 - 2 percent among Republicans and 65 - 23 percent among independent voters, while the lieutenant governor wins Democrats 77 - 11 percent. "There is a gender gap, but Portman still dominates among men and women," said Brown. Portman is carrying men 58 - 32 percent and women 51 - 37 percent. "For Fisher to win he'll need to get every undecided voter and peel away a sizable chunk of those who are already in the Portman camp," said Brown. "But only 10 percent of Portman voters say they might change their minds, while 11 percent of Fisher backers feel that way." Portman is viewed favorably by 47 percent of likely voters and unfavorably by 22 percent. Fisher, on the other hand, receives a 42 - 29 percent unfavorable rating. Fisher is viewed favorably by just 20 percent of independents, compared to Portman who gets a thumbs up from 54 percent of unaffiliated likely voters. Portman also swamps Fisher 53 - 32 percent when likely voters are asked which candidate most shares their values. Ohio's economy is getting worse, 36 percent of Ohio likely voters say, while 19 percent say it is getting better and 45 percent say it is unchanged. Portman wins likely voters who think the economy is getting worse 75 - 11 percent. Fisher carries voters who see the economy improving 82 - 9 percent. Voters who see no change in the economy back Portman 58 - 33 percent. "This is obviously shaping up to be a Republican year in Ohio, and Rob Portman is riding the wave while Lee Fisher is drowning under it," said Brown. "In a year in which the national influence on the Senate election was not as great nor as pro-Republican, Lee Fisher might have had a better chance. But politics is not fair, the tenor of the times matters to voters, and Lee Fisher drew the short straw." From October 12 - 17, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,188 Ohio likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Lee Fischer the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Fisher or Portman? (This table includes Leaners) LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).............. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Fisher 34% 2% 77% 23% 32% 37% 22% Portman 55 92 11 65 58 51 67 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 10 5 10 12 10 10 10 RATING ECONOMY Q19 Better Worse Same Fisher 82% 11% 33% Portman 9 75 58 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 9 12 8 TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Fisher or Portman? (This table includes Leaners.) LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 20 Oct 6 Sep 17 2010 2010 2010 Fisher 34 36 35 Portman 55 55 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 10 8 9 4a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY............... CAND CHOICE Q4 Tot LF RP Made up 90% 88% 90% Might change 10 11 10 DK/NA - - - 5. (If Fisher voter) Is your vote for United States Senator mainly for Fisher or against Portman? (*Subgroup not large enough to report) LIKELY FISHER VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)....... WtBrnAgn Tot *Rep Dem Ind Men Wom *Evnglcl For Fisher 64% 68% 55% 61% 67% Against Portman 27 26 29 33 21 DK/NA 9 7 16 6 12 6. (If Portman voter) Is your vote for United States Senator mainly for Portman or against Fisher? (*Subgroup not large enough to report) LIKELY PORTMAN VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)...... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep *Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl For Portman 70% 77% 66% 72% 68% 71% Against Fisher 24 20 27 24 24 22 DK/NA 6 3 8 4 8 7 7. Is your opinion of - Lee Fisher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).............. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 29% 7% 61% 20% 28% 31% 21% Unfavorable 42 68 12 47 45 40 49 Hvn't hrd enough 27 23 25 31 27 27 29 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 1 2 - TREND: Is your opinion of - Lee Fisher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS........ Oct 20 Oct 6 Sep 17 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 29 30 29 Unfavorable 42 44 36 Hvn't hrd enough 27 24 33 REFUSED 2 2 2 8. Is your opinion of - Rob Portman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).............. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 47% 77% 12% 54% 51% 43% 57% Unfavorable 22 2 47 15 21 22 13 Hvn't hrd enough 29 20 38 29 26 32 30 REFUSED 2 1 3 2 1 3 - TREND: Is your opinion of - Rob Portman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 20 Oct 6 Sep 17 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 47 45 44 Unfavorable 22 18 20 Hvn't hrd enough 29 35 34 REFUSED 2 2 2 9. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you believe most shares your values, Lee Fisher or Rob Portman? LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).............. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Fisher 32% 2% 74% 21% 32% 32% 19% Portman 53 89 10 63 56 49 65 NO DIFFERENCE(VOL) 3 1 3 3 2 5 2 DK/NA 12 8 13 13 9 14 14 10. Would you like to see the next United States Senator elected from Ohio generally support Barack Obama's policies or oppose Barack Obama's policies? LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).............. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 40% 2% 85% 31% 37% 43% 23% Oppose 54 96 10 60 57 51 72 DK/NA 6 2 5 9 5 6 5 11. Would you prefer to have Democrats or Republicans control the U.S. Senate next year or doesn't it matter to you? LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).............. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Democrats 34% 1% 83% 17% 30% 38% 21% Republicans 44 89 5 44 49 39 57 Doesn't matter 19 10 11 33 18 19 18 DK/NA 3 1 1 6 3 4 4 18. Would you describe the state of Ohio's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor? LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).............. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Excellent - - - 1% 1% - - Good 9 2 16 9 9 9 5 Not so good 45 37 58 41 45 45 40 Poor 45 61 25 48 45 45 54 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 - 1 19. Do you think Ohio's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).............. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Better 19% 3% 37% 16% 18% 20% 13% Worse 36 53 15 38 33 39 38 The same 45 43 48 45 48 40 47 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
