October 26, 2010 - Kasich Up 6 Points In Ohio Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Republican Has 17-Point Lead In Senate Race Word format Ohio Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland has cut Republican John Kasich's lead to 49 - 43 percent among those likely to vote with a week to go before the election, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, the Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate, also has made some progress but still trails Republican Rob Portman 53 - 36 percent in the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey. Today's results represent a very small shift in support for both Democratic candidates, but time may be running out for them to close the remaining gap. Strickland trailed Kasich 51 - 41 percent in Quinnipiac University's most recent poll survey October 19. Fisher was behind Portman 55 - 34 percent in an October 20 survey. "It is difficult to see how Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher wins the election. Despite his gains, he remains 17 points behind with a week to go. A successful comeback would make Harry Truman's victory look like small potatoes by comparison," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Whether it was because he faced a competitive primary for the Democratic nomination, or some other reason, Fisher started out the post-primary campaign in trouble and was never able to right the ship." "Gov. Ted Strickland, on the other hand, has made the race for governor competitive. He still trails by six points, and certainly has his work cut out for him. But Strickland has had the momentum in the last month." "To be sure, one would much rather be in John Kasich's shoes today, and the Republican remains the favorite to be Ohio's next governor. But if Strickland can continue his momentum he might surprise people. Clearly he is in much better shape than is Fisher," said Brown. In the Senate race, Portman leads Fisher 96 - 2 percent among Republicans and 58 - 26 percent among independent voters, while Fisher is carrying Democrats 83 - 14 percent. Kasich is leading 93 - 4 percent among Republicans and 47 - 42 percent among independent voters. Strickland is winning among Democrats 86 - 11 percent. Seven percent of likely voters remain undecided and 9 percent of voters who name a candidate say they might change their mind in this final week. "The race in the last week will target undecided voters and voters who could change their mind," said Brown. The gender gap is immense: Strickland leads among women 51 - 41 percent, but the GOP candidate is doing even better among men, 56 - 36 percent. In the Senate race, women split with 45 percent for Portman and 43 percent for Fisher, while Portman overwhelms the Democrat among men 60 - 29 percent. Kasich is viewed favorably 43 - 37 percent among likely voters, compared to Strickland's split with 43 percent favorable and 45 percent unfavorable. Portman gets a 50 - 21 percent favorability rating compared to Fisher's negative 32 - 42 percent rating. From October 18 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 686 Ohio likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ted Strickland the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Strickland or Kasich?(This table includes Leaners) LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).............. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Strickland 43% 4% 86% 42% 36% 51% 28% Kasich 49 93 11 47 56 41 64 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 - 0 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 3 3 10 6 8 8 TREND: If the election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Ted Strickland the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Strickland or Kasich? (This table includes Leaners) LIKELY VOTERS................. Oct 26 Oct 19 Oct 5 Sep 16 2010 2010 2010 2010 Strickland 43 41 41 37 Kasich 49 51 50 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 7 7 7 7 1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY............... CAND CHOICE Q1 Tot TS JK Made up 91% 91% 91% Might change 9 9 9 DK/NA - 1 - 2. Is your opinion of - Ted Strickland favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).............. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 43% 10% 83% 38% 37% 49% 28% Unfavorable 45 81 11 45 52 38 62 Hvn't hrd enough 6 7 5 7 4 9 8 REFUSED 5 2 1 9 6 4 2 TREND: Is your opinion of - Ted Strickland favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS................. Oct 26 Oct 19 Oct 5 Sep 16 2010 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 43 43 41 36 Unfavorable 45 47 47 52 Hvn't hrd enough 6 7 7 9 REFUSED 5 3 4 3 3. Is your opinion of - John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).............. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 43% 84% 6% 42% 51% 34% 57% Unfavorable 37 5 73 33 35 40 29 Hvn't hrd enough 16 11 20 18 10 23 12 REFUSED 3 - 1 6 4 3 2 TREND: Is your opinion of - John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS................. Oct 26 Oct 19 Oct 5 Sep 16 2010 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 43 47 46 47 Unfavorable 37 33 30 27 Hvn't hrd enough 16 17 21 24 REFUSED 3 3 2 2 4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Lee Fischer the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Fisher or Portman? (This table includes Leaners). LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).............. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Fisher 36% 2% 83% 26% 29% 43% 20% Portman 53 96 14 58 60 45 74 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 1 2 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 9 3 3 14 8 11 6 TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Fisher or Portman? (This table includes Leaners.) LIKELY VOTERS................. Oct 26 Oct 20 Oct 6 Sep 17 2010 2010 2010 2010 Fisher 36 34 36 35 Portman 53 55 55 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 9 10 8 9 4a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY................. CAND CHOICE Q4.. Tot LF RP Made up 88% 89% 86% Might change 12 10 13 DK/NA 1 - 1 5. Is your opinion of - Lee Fisher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).............. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 32% 4% 72% 24% 29% 36% 19% Unfavorable 42 78 8 41 48 34 56 Hvn't hrd enough 22 16 19 30 19 26 23 REFUSED 4 2 1 5 4 4 2 TREND: Is your opinion of - Lee Fisher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS................ Oct 26 Oct 20 Oct 6 Sep 17 2010 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 32 29 30 29 Unfavorable 42 42 44 36 Hvn't hrd enough 22 27 24 33 REFUSED 4 2 2 2 6. Is your opinion of - Rob Portman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).............. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 50% 91% 15% 51% 55% 43% 66% Unfavorable 21 1 42 15 23 18 14 Hvn't hrd enough 27 7 41 32 20 35 17 REFUSED 3 1 2 2 2 3 3 TREND: Is your opinion of - Rob Portman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS................. Oct 26 Oct 20 Oct 6 Sep 17 2010 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 50 47 45 44 Unfavorable 21 22 18 20 Hvn't hrd enough 27 29 35 34 REFUSED 3 2 2 2
