January 19, 2011 - Ohio Voters Don't Believe Gov. Kasich's No-Tax Pledge, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Jury Is Out On New Governor Word format Ohio voters oppose 61 - 34 percent raising taxes to balance the state budget, but by a 58 - 28 percent margin, they don't believe their new governor, John Kasich, will be able to keep his no- tax promise, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Voters say 50 - 42 percent that Gov. Kasich should not have made this no-tax pledge, the independent Quinnipiac (KWUIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. After one week in office, Kasich gets 30 - 22 percent job approval rating, with 48 percent of voters undecided. But voters are generally optimistic, 59 - 29 percent, about the next four years in Ohio with Kasich as governor. "Gov. John Kasich starts out with a barely positive job approval from the voters, although in fairness almost half have yet to develop an opinion of his performance given he is only a little more than a week in office," said Peter A. Brown assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Kasich, however, does have an electorate that is optimistic about his ability to turn the state around. Voters are aware of the problems facing Ohio: 96 percent call the state's budget problems 'very serious' or 'somewhat serious,' the highest level of concern we've ever measured in the state." While voters may be aware of the budget problems, they are not happy about some of the ideas being advocated by Kasich and/or Republicans who control both houses of the legislature. By 53 - 32 percent voters say they would rather cut services than raise taxes to balance the budget. Service cuts win 76 - 13 percent support from Republicans and 56 - 29 percent support from independent voters, while Democrats favor tax hikes 50 - 36 percent. But voters say 51 - 36 percent that eliminating the tax on estates of more than $338,000 is a bad idea. Ohio voters oppose a number of proposals to help balance the state budget: 46 - 43 percent against layoffs for state workers; 51 - 30 percent against leasing the Ohio Turnpike to a private company; 51 - 33 percent against hiring a private company to run state prisons. A proposal to limit the ability of state and local government workers to bargain collectively is a bad idea, voters say 51 - 34 percent. "Ohioans do not want a tax increase to deal with the budget crisis but are skeptical that Gov. Kasich will be able to avoid one, despite his promises," said Brown. Republicans oppose a tax hike to balance the state budget 80 - 17 percent and believe 46 - 33 percent that Kasich will keep his no-tax pledge. Democrats support a tax hike 50 - 46 percent and say 71 - 17 percent that Kasich won't keep his promise. Independent voters oppose new taxes 61 - 32 percent and don't believe Kasich 62 - 26 percent. "For the most part, Ohioans are not receptive to a number of proposals that would cut spending or sell state assets as a way to balance the budget," said Brown. "Gov. Kasich has a serious selling job on his hands when it comes to convincing the people of Ohio on the wisdom of his ideas." From January 12 - 17, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,299 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling his job as Governor? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 30% 55% 14% 31% 33% 28% 42% Disapprove 22 6 35 18 23 21 12 DK/NA 48 39 50 51 44 51 47 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Approve 36 25 27 35 39 32 23 Disapprove 20 25 18 25 21 16 27 DK/NA 44 50 55 40 40 52 50 5. Looking back to Ted Strickland's four years as governor, do you approve or disapprove of the way he handled his job as governor? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 46% 25% 64% 41% 48% 44% 39% Disapprove 46 68 28 50 47 45 54 DK/NA 8 7 7 9 5 12 7 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Approve 46 48 54 51 42 36 54 Disapprove 50 43 35 35 55 50 38 DK/NA 4 9 11 13 3 14 9 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling his job as Governor? (* "handled his job") APPROVE....... DIS... High Low High Jan 19 Jun 29 Apr 29 Mar 31 Feb 05 Jun 29 Nov 11 2011* 2010 2010 2010 2009 2010 2009 Approve 46 44 47 49 63 44 45 Disapprove 46 42 38 40 25 42 43 DK/NA 8 13 15 11 12 13 12 6. Are you generally optimistic or pessimistic about the next four years with John Kasich as Governor? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Optimistic 59% 83% 43% 60% 57% 60% 67% Pessimistic 29 6 44 31 32 27 18 DK/NA 12 11 12 10 11 13 14 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Optimistic 61 57 59 73 57 56 55 Pessimistic 33 30 22 22 31 28 36 DK/NA 6 12 19 5 12 16 9 15. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Very satisfied 3% 4% 5% 2% 4% 3% 3% Smwht satisfied 28 31 28 25 25 30 33 Smwht dissatisfied 39 43 38 38 36 42 38 Very dissatisfied 28 20 28 33 33 24 24 DK/NA 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Very satisfied 5 4 1 9 2 2 4 Smwht satisfied 26 25 22 43 27 36 23 Smwht dissatisfied 41 37 45 27 47 37 41 Very dissatisfied 27 32 32 21 24 21 31 DK/NA 1 1 - - - 4 1 TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? VERY+SMWHT SAT High Low Jan 19 Jun 29 Apr 29 Mar 31 Feb 23 Mar 21 Jan 19 2011 2010 2010 2010 2010 2007 2011 Very satisfied 3 3 3 3 2 5 3 Smwht satisfied 28 37 38 35 30 49 28 Smwht dissatisfied 39 34 30 35 36 28 39 Very dissatisfied 28 25 28 26 32 16 28 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 16. How serious do you think Ohio's budget problems are; very serious, somewhat serious, not too serious, or not at all serious? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Very serious 69% 67% 69% 71% 70% 69% 71% Smwht serious 27 29 27 25 26 27 24 Not too serious 2 1 3 1 2 2 1 Not at all serious - 1 - - 1 - 1 DK/NA 2 2 1 2 1 3 2 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Very serious 65 69 75 66 75 69 70 Smwht serious 31 27 24 28 22 24 27 Not too serious 2 2 1 4 2 - 2 Not at all serious 1 - - - 2 - - DK/NA 1 2 1 2 - 6 2 TREND: How serious do you think Ohio's budget problems are - Very serious, somewhat serious, not too serious or not at all serious? Jan 19 Mar 21 Feb 01 2011 2007 2007 Very serious 69 37 43 Smwht serious 27 48 43 Not too serious 2 9 7 Not at all serious - 1 1 DK/NA 2 6 6 17. To balance the state budget, if you had to choose, would you prefer; raising taxes or cutting government programs and services? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Raising taxes 32% 13% 50% 29% 30% 34% 18% Cutting programs/ services 53 76 36 56 58 50 63 DK/NA 14 10 14 16 12 16 18 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Raising taxes 33 35 31 24 30 29 32 Cutting programs/ services 55 49 60 48 61 57 52 DK/NA 12 17 9 27 9 15 16 TREND: To balance the state budget next year, if you had to choose, which would you prefer - raising taxes to keep state services at their current level or cutting state services to keep taxes at their current level? (*does not include "next year") Jan 19 May 6 Mar 17 Feb 05 Dec 11 2011* 2009 2009 2009 2008 Raising taxes 32 32 32 30 24 Cutting services 53 57 56 59 62 DK/NA 14 10 12 12 13 18. To help balance the state budget do you support or oppose - layoffs for state employees? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 43% 54% 31% 47% 49% 38% 49% Oppose 46 33 62 41 43 49 36 DK/NA 11 13 6 12 8 13 15 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Support 41 43 54 41 37 48 38 Oppose 53 48 40 36 49 38 51 DK/NA 7 9 6 23 14 14 10 19. To help balance the state budget do you support or oppose - leasing the Ohio turnpike to a private company? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 30% 39% 24% 32% 32% 29% 27% Oppose 51 37 61 50 57 46 51 DK/NA 19 24 15 18 11 25 22 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Support 32 27 27 37 36 29 27 Oppose 44 56 61 46 45 47 58 DK/NA 23 17 12 17 19 24 15 20. To help balance the state budget do you support or oppose - hiring a private company to run state prisons? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 33% 46% 22% 37% 40% 27% 34% Oppose 51 33 65 50 49 53 44 DK/NA 16 22 13 12 10 20 22 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Support 32 34 36 31 32 35 32 Oppose 51 52 51 62 52 44 56 DK/NA 18 14 13 7 16 21 12 21. To help balance the state budget do you support or oppose - raising taxes? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 34% 17% 50% 32% 36% 33% 25% Oppose 61 80 46 61 60 61 71 DK/NA 5 3 3 6 4 6 4 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Support 38 37 27 21 33 31 35 Oppose 58 58 67 79 65 57 60 DK/NA 4 5 6 1 2 12 5 22. Governor John Kasich has pledged that in trying to balance the state's budget deficit that he will not raise taxes or fees. Do you think John Kasich should have made this pledge or not? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 42% 65% 29% 39% 42% 41% 50% No 50 27 63 52 50 49 36 DK/NA 9 8 8 9 8 9 13 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Yes 39 44 39 52 42 35 35 No 56 48 52 44 49 50 58 DK/NA 6 8 9 4 9 15 7 23. Do you think John Kasich will be able to keep this pledge or not? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 28% 46% 17% 26% 29% 26% 34% No 58 33 71 62 57 59 47 DK/NA 14 21 12 12 13 15 19 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Yes 24 29 27 33 27 28 26 No 61 59 56 60 56 51 64 DK/NA 14 13 17 6 16 21 9 24. Governor Kasich has given back $400 million to the federal government it gave Ohio for rail service between Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton and Cincinnati. Kasich has killed the project saying it would cost the state much more in the long run. Do you agree or disagree with Governor Kasich's decision? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Agree 48% 67% 29% 55% 50% 46% 56% Disagree 42 22 63 36 45 40 32 DK/NA 10 11 9 10 5 15 12 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Agree 55 43 40 60 52 47 47 Disagree 41 44 47 34 42 40 45 DK/NA 4 13 13 6 7 13 8 25. Governor Kasich and Republican legislative leaders have talked about eliminating or restricting the ability of state and local government employees to collectively bargain. Do you think that is a good idea or a bad idea? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Good idea 34% 50% 19% 37% 39% 30% 38% Bad idea 51 31 71 44 52 50 40 DK/NA 15 18 10 18 10 20 23 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Good idea 34 33 39 20 39 32 22 Bad idea 50 53 46 56 48 48 69 DK/NA 16 14 15 24 13 19 9 26. There is an effort in the Ohio legislature to eliminate the state's tax on estates of more than $338,000. Do you think this is a good idea or a bad idea? Annual household income Tot Rep Dem Ind <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Good idea 36% 55% 21% 38% 26% 43% 35% 52% Bad idea 51 35 65 51 59 46 58 39 DK/NA 12 10 14 10 14 11 7 8 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Good idea 38 33 40 33 45 35 32 Bad idea 53 55 47 53 48 43 56 DK/NA 10 12 13 13 7 22 12
