May 19, 2011 - Blackwell Leads GOP Pack To Challenge Brown In Ohio, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Obama Gets Almost No Osama Bounce Word format Ken Blackwell, the former Republican nominee for governor, has an early Republican primary lead in the 2012 U.S. Senate race and runs best against Sen. Sherrod Brown, trailing the Democratic incumbent 44 - 35 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Sen. Brown tops State Treasurer Josh Mandel 45 - 31 percent and leads former State Sen. Kevin Coughlin 44 - 28 percent. Ohio voters approve 49 - 45 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, compared to a 47 - 48 percent approval in a March 24 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Independent voters shift from a negative 42 - 50 percent in March to a positive 49 - 44 percent today. Republican and Democratic approval is little changed. President Obama's lead over an unnamed Republican in a November, 2012 trial run is down from 41 - 34 percent in March to 41 - 39 percent now, a virtual tie. Voters split 47 - 47 percent on whether he deserves a second term in office, compared to 45 - 46 percent in March. The gender gap continues as men disapprove of Obama 50 - 45 percent while women approve 53 - 40 percent. "The six-point bounce President Barack Obama got in Quinnipiac University's May 5 national poll goes flat when Ohio voters judge his job performance," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "His approval rating has barely moved, but symbolically it's on the positive side again. His matchup against an unnamed Republican, however, is down. In Ohio at least, the question of whether there is a 'bin Laden bounce' apparently has been answered. And the White House can't be happy with the answer." Among Republican voters, Blackwell gets 33 percent in the U.S. Senate primary, with Mandel at 17 percent and Coughlin at 5 percent. Another 43 percent are undecided. Sen. Brown, who has a 49 - 30 percent job approval rating, has a 48 - 31 percent rating among independents, the key voter group. He gets thumbs up from Democrats 72 - 11 percent. Republicans disapprove 48 - 27 percent which is a better score than most Democrats get. For example, Republicans disapprove of Obama 84 - 12 percent. Women are the key to Brown's lead over three potential Republican challengers: Women back Brown over Blackwell 49 - 27 percent while men back the Republican 43 - 38 percent; Brown leads Mandel 40 - 36 percent among men and 50 - 26 percent among women; Men split with 38 percent for Brown and 36 percent for Coughlin, but women go with the Democrat 50 - 22 percent. "Sen. Sherrod Brown obviously begins the campaign with a strong lead against any Republican," said Brown. "But he is not necessarily home free. He is unable to get 50 percent against any of the three potential challengers, which is the dividing line for incumbents who are overwhelmingly favored for re-election. "In the Republican primary, Blackwell's lead is not much of one at all, given how much better he is known than the other GOP aspirants and the fact that almost half of GOP voters are undecided at this point," said Brown. Ohio voters approve 38 - 21 percent of the job Republican U.S. Sen. Rob Portman is doing. Another 41 percent are undecided on the first-termer. From May 10 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,379 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. (If registered Republican) If the 2012 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Ken Blackwell, Josh Mandel, and Kevin Coughlin for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPS.. Tot Men Wom Blackwell 33% 38% 27% Mandel 17 21 12 Coughlin 5 6 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 DK/NA 43 32 55 2. If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Sherrod Brown the Democrat, and Ken Blackwell the Republican for whom would you vote? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Brown 44% 7% 80% 43% 38% 49% 31% Blackwell 35 75 5 29 43 27 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 3 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 DK/NA 18 14 12 25 16 19 14 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Brown 47% 48% 46% 42% 37% 34% 48% Blackwell 33 30 32 31 46 42 30 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 4 - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 4 1 1 2 DK/NA 17 18 17 23 15 22 19 3. If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Sherrod Brown the Democrat, and Josh Mandel the Republican for whom would you vote? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Brown 45% 8% 80% 46% 40% 50% 30% Mandel 31 69 3 23 36 26 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 - 1 1 1 DK/NA 21 20 14 28 21 21 21 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Brown 48% 49% 47% 53% 41% 34% 50% Mandel 32 28 28 22 36 35 25 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 3 - 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 - 3 2 1 1 DK/NA 17 21 22 22 20 28 23 4. If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Sherrod Brown the Democrat, and Kevin Coughlin the Republican for whom would you vote? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Brown 44% 9% 80% 43% 38% 50% 32% Coughlin 28 65 2 22 36 22 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 1 4 3 3 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 3 1 2 2 1 DK/NA 23 22 14 30 21 24 21 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Brown 47% 47% 48% 45% 42% 32% 48% Coughlin 25 25 27 22 35 41 22 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 4 5 2 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 1 3 2 1 2 DK/NA 24 23 19 28 20 25 26 6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rob Portman is handling his job as United States Senator? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 38% 58% 23% 36% 45% 33% 41% Disapprove 21 8 29 23 22 20 17 DK/NA 41 34 48 41 33 47 42 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Approve 38% 33% 34% 18% 58% 43% 33% Disapprove 18 22 22 40 21 14 25 DK/NA 44 45 44 43 21 43 42 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rob Portman is handling his job as United States Senator? May 19 Mar 24 Jan 20 2011 2011 2011 Approve 38 30 34 Disapprove 21 25 16 DK/NA 41 45 51 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 49% 27% 72% 48% 47% 51% 40% Disapprove 30 48 11 31 37 24 35 DK/NA 21 24 17 21 16 25 25 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Approve 50% 54% 53% 54% 41% 40% 54% Disapprove 34 25 25 24 33 37 27 DK/NA 17 20 22 22 26 23 19 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator? APPROVE....... DIS.... High Low High May 19 Mar 24 Jan 20 Jun 30 May 06 Jul 07 Sep 15 2011 2011 2011 2010 2009 2009 2009 Approve 49 43 45 46 52 41 48 Disapprove 30 27 25 29 24 29 33 DK/NA 21 30 30 25 24 30 20 8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 49% 12% 84% 49% 45% 53% 29% Disapprove 45 84 10 44 50 40 65 DK/NA 6 4 6 7 5 6 6 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Approve 53% 52% 54% 38% 48% 39% 54% Disapprove 42 41 43 55 48 56 42 DK/NA 5 7 3 7 5 5 4 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? APPROVE....... High Low May 19 Mar 24 Jan 20 Jun 30 Apr 29 Feb 06 Feb 23 2011 2011 2011 2010 2010 2009 2010 Approve 49 47 49 45 45 67 44 Disapprove 45 48 46 49 50 16 52 DK/NA 6 5 5 6 5 17 5 9. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President... If the 2012 election for President were being held today, do you think you would vote for Barack Obama the Democratic candidate, or for the Republican candidate? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Obama 41% 6% 81% 35% 36% 46% 23% Republican 39 84 6 32 44 34 54 DEPENDS(VOL) 13 8 8 22 13 14 15 DK/NA 7 3 5 11 6 7 7 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Obama 46% 43% 39% 32% 42% 31% 44% Republican 37 35 41 34 44 46 33 DEPENDS(VOL) 12 16 9 23 10 13 16 DK/NA 5 6 11 11 4 10 8 TREND: Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President... If the 2012 election for President were being held today, do you think you would vote for Barack Obama, the Democratic candidate, or the Republican candidate? May 19 Mar 24 Jan 20 2011 2011 2011 Obama 41 41 44 Republican 39 34 39 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 13 16 11 DK/NA 7 9 6 10. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President... Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes/Deserves reelect 47% 9% 85% 46% 42% 52% 31% No/Does not 47 89 11 44 52 42 64 DK/NA 6 2 4 10 6 6 5 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Yes/Deserves reelect 51% 50% 46% 35% 47% 40% 51% No/Does not 45 44 47 52 48 54 44 DK/NA 4 6 8 13 5 6 5 TREND: Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President, do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? May 19 Mar 24 Jan 20 2011 2011 2011 Yes/Deserves reelect 47 45 48 No/Does not 47 46 44 DK/NA 6 9 8 11. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for United States Senator... Do you feel that Sherrod Brown deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes/Deserves reelect 49% 21% 76% 50% 43% 54% 39% No/Does not 31 57 9 28 41 21 37 DK/NA 20 23 15 22 15 25 24 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Yes/Deserves reelect 49% 54% 49% 54% 41% 41% 52% No/Does not 33 27 24 21 33 42 27 DK/NA 18 19 26 25 25 17 21 TREND: Looking ahead to the 2012 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Sherrod Brown deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? May 19 Mar 24 Jan 20 2011 2011 2011 Yes/Deserves reelect 49 45 45 No/Does not 31 30 30 DK/NA 20 25 25 13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling - the economy? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 39% 6% 73% 37% 35% 43% 22% Disapprove 55 91 21 57 61 51 74 DK/NA 5 2 6 6 4 6 4 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Approve 44% 41% 41% 26% 39% 33% 46% Disapprove 55 53 52 70 55 62 50 DK/NA 2 7 7 5 5 5 4 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy? (*Low Approve also 39% Feb 2010) APPROVE....... High Low May 19 Jun 30 Apr 29 Mar 31 Feb 23 Feb 6 May 19 2011 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2011* Approve 39 41 42 40 39 58 39 Disapprove 55 54 55 54 57 21 55 DK/NA 5 5 3 6 4 21 5 14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling - foreign policy? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 50% 17% 82% 47% 46% 53% 34% Disapprove 44 76 12 46 50 39 60 DK/NA 6 7 7 7 5 8 7 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Approve 53% 51% 49% 52% 47% 43% 54% Disapprove 42 42 41 44 46 53 40 DK/NA 4 7 10 4 8 4 6
