July 20, 2011 - Ohio Gov's Low Approval Slips Further, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Support For Photo Id To Vote Almost 4-1 Word format Ohio Gov. John Kasich is sinking slowly into the quicksand of voter disapproval, with a 50 - 35 percent thumbs down on job approval, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This is down from a 49 - 38 percent job disapproval May 18. Opponents of Gov. Kasich's legislation to limit collective bargaining for public employees retain a 56 - 32 lead in the expected November referendum, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. The good news for Republicans is that Ohio voters support by an overwhelming 78 - 20 percent efforts to require photo identification in order to vote. By a narrow 48 - 45 percent voters support a proposed constitutional amendment which would block any federal efforts to require Ohio residents to purchase health insurance. "Gov. John Kasich is sinking lower in the eyes of Ohio voters, dropping from an 11-point approval deficit two months ago to a 15-point deficit today," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Even after the state budget has been approved as he promised without raising taxes, and even though the Quinnipiac University poll finds that 63 percent say they favor such an approach, Gov. Kasich's name remains mud in the eyes of the Ohio electorate. "Voters may say 2-1 they wanted him to balance the budget just through spending cuts rather than with a combination of spending cuts and tax increases, but they don't like the cuts that he and the Legislature approved. By 50 - 32 percent, voters say the budget is unfair to people like them. When voters think a politician is treating them unfairly, that's not good for the politician's political health." Kasich's job performance gets a 66 - 19 percent approval from Republicans, but disapproval is 76 - 12 percent among Democrats and 48 - 34 percent among independent voters. The depth of his problem is evidenced by his split 43 - 42 percent rating among white evangelical Christians, typically a very pro-Republican group. The numbers on the proposed effort to repeal SB5 limiting collective bargaining in a November referendum are similar to those on Kasich personally. Republicans oppose repeal 56 - 35 percent, while repeal wins 75 - 14 percent support from Democrats and 52 - 33 percent support from independent voters. "Kasich has until 2014 when he presumably will face the voters, to turn his political fortunes around, but the timeline for the vote on SB5, which is obviously a referendum on the governor's agenda, is much shorter," said Brown. "A loss on SB5 would be a no confidence vote on the governor from the voters of Ohio." Perhaps the only ray of sunshine for Kasich in the budget numbers is the finding that by 34 - 27 percent voters say the cuts approved by Kasich and lawmakers will help, rather than hurt, the Ohio economy. Another 32 percent say the cuts won't affect the economy. The photo ID voting proposal is opposed by many Democratic lawmakers, but Democratic voters support the idea 66 - 33 percent. Republican voters support the idea 93 - 6 percent and independents agree 77 - 21 percent. Support for the proposed constitutional amendment to block a key provision of President Barack Obama's health care reform breaks on strictly partisan lines: Republicans support the amendment 78 - 17 percent while Democrats oppose it 71 - 20 percent. Independent voters, who may decide the outcome, support the amendment 49 - 44 percent. From July 12 - 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,659 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling his job as Governor? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 35% 66% 12% 34% 40% 31% 43% Disapprove 50 19 76 48 48 53 42 DK/NA 15 14 12 18 13 17 14 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Approve 38% 28% 37% 41% 37% 44% 27% Disapprove 48 56 45 43 52 41 65 DK/NA 14 15 18 15 11 15 8 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling his job as Governor? Jul 20 May 18 Mar 23 Jan 19 2011 2011 2011 2011 Approve 35 38 30 30 Disapprove 50 49 46 22 DK/NA 15 13 23 48 17. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Very satisfied 3% 6% 1% 3% 3% 3% 4% Smwht satisfied 31 44 24 29 32 31 36 Smwht dissatisfied 32 30 36 32 31 33 30 Very dissatisfied 32 19 38 35 32 32 29 DK/NA 1 1 - 2 1 1 2 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Very satisfied 3% 3% 4% 1% 2% 3% 3% Smwht satisfied 38 27 30 34 31 32 20 Smwht dissatisfied 32 32 38 30 31 31 35 Very dissatisfied 26 36 23 34 34 34 41 DK/NA 1 1 5 2 1 - 1 TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? VERY+SMWHT SAT High Low Jul 20 May 18 Mar 23 Jan 19 Jun 29 Mar 21 Mar 23 2011 2011 2011 2011 2010 2007 2011 Very satisfied 3 3 3 3 3 5 3 Smwht satisfied 31 30 26 28 37 49 26 Smwht dissatisfied 32 32 34 39 34 28 34 Very dissatisfied 32 35 36 28 25 16 36 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 - 1 1 20a. (SPLIT SAMPLE A) As you may know, there is a new law in Ohio that would limit collective bargaining for public employees. Do you support or oppose limiting collective bargaining for public employees? WtBrnAgn Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl HsHld Support 34% 59% 16% 35% 38% 31% 44% 28% Oppose 52 31 69 51 52 52 43 65 DK/NA 14 10 14 14 10 17 13 7 TREND: As you may know, there is a new law in Ohio that would limit collective bargaining for public employees. Do you support or oppose limiting collective bargaining for public employees? (*Mar 2011 "proposed" law) Jul 20 May 18 Mar 23 2011 2011 2011* Support 34 38 41 Oppose 52 50 48 DK/NA 14 12 10 20b. (SPLIT SAMPLE B) As you may know, there is a new law in Ohio that would limit collective bargaining rights for public employees. Do you support or oppose limiting collective bargaining rights for public employees? WtBrnAgn Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl HsHld Support 34% 56% 21% 31% 40% 29% 42% 24% Oppose 55 31 73 54 53 57 44 71 DK/NA 10 13 6 15 7 13 14 5 TREND: As you may know, there is a new law in Ohio that would limit collective bargaining rights for public employees. Do you support or oppose limiting collective bargaining rights for public employees? (*Mar 2011 "proposed" law) Jul 20 May 18 Mar 23 2011 2011 2011* Support 34 38 35 Oppose 55 51 54 DK/NA 10 11 11 21. As you may know there is a proposed referendum to repeal this new law. Do you think this new law which limits collective bargaining for public employees should be kept or repealed? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Kept 32% 56% 14% 33% 37% 28% 42% Repealed 56 35 75 52 55 56 47 DK/NA 12 9 11 15 8 16 11 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Kept 34% 30% 34% 34% 34% 34% 24% Repealed 57 56 58 57 55 48 71 DK/NA 9 14 9 10 10 18 5 TREND: As you may know there is a proposed referendum to repeal this new law. Do you think this new law which limits collective bargaining for public employees should be kept or repealed? Jul 20 May 18 2011 2011 Kept 32 36 Repealed 56 54 DK/NA 12 10 22. Do you think limiting collective bargaining for public employees is necessary to help balance the state budget or not? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 38% 56% 24% 39% 42% 35% 45% No 50 33 66 50 51 49 42 DK/NA 11 11 11 11 7 16 13 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Yes 41% 38% 35% 38% 34% 43% 31% No 50 51 53 50 53 43 65 DK/NA 9 11 12 12 13 14 4 TREND: Do you think limiting collective bargaining for public employees is necessary to help balance the state budget or not? Jul 20 May 18 Mar 23 2011 2011 2011 Yes 38 38 37 No 50 52 55 DK/NA 11 10 8 23. The new law limiting collective bargaining for public employees would ban all public employee strikes. Do you support or oppose banning all public employee strikes? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 36% 55% 24% 36% 40% 34% 45% Oppose 56 37 69 57 54 57 46 DK/NA 8 8 8 7 7 9 9 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Support 39% 33% 41% 42% 34% 41% 31% Oppose 56 58 52 57 55 52 63 DK/NA 6 10 7 1 11 8 6 TREND: The new law limiting collective bargaining for public employees would ban all public employee strikes. Do you support or oppose banning all public employee strikes? (*Mar 2011 "proposed" law) Jul 20 May 18 Mar 23 2011 2011 2011* Support 36 35 35 Oppose 56 58 58 DK/NA 8 7 7 24. The new law would require public employees to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums. Do you support or oppose requiring public employees to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 60% 76% 46% 61% 63% 57% 67% Oppose 33 16 46 33 32 34 26 DK/NA 7 8 8 6 5 9 7 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Support 60% 57% 61% 47% 61% 70% 53% Oppose 35 34 32 47 31 22 40 DK/NA 5 8 7 6 8 8 7 TREND: The new law would require public employees to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums. Do you support or oppose requiring public employees to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums? (*Mar 2011 "proposed" law) Jul 20 May 18 Mar 23 2011 2011 2011* Support 60 59 66 Oppose 33 34 27 DK/NA 7 7 8 25. The new law would prevent the public employee unions from bargaining over their health insurance plans. Do you support or oppose preventing the public employee unions from bargaining over their health insurance plans? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 36% 49% 26% 34% 40% 31% 40% Oppose 58 43 70 60 56 61 52 DK/NA 6 8 4 6 4 8 8 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Support 41% 34% 36% 37% 32% 33% 25% Oppose 56 59 63 61 59 57 72 DK/NA 3 7 1 2 9 9 3 TREND: The new law would prevent the public employee unions from bargaining over their health insurance plans. Do you support or oppose preventing the public employee unions from bargaining over their health insurance plans? (*wording change "bargaining over health insurance plans for public employees") Jul 20 May 18 2011 2011* Support 36 38 Oppose 58 54 DK/NA 6 8 26. The new law would require public employees to pay at least 10 percent of their wages for their pensions. Do you support or oppose requiring public workers to pay at least 10 percent of their wages for their pensions? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 58% 71% 46% 62% 61% 55% 62% Oppose 33 18 45 32 31 35 27 DK/NA 9 11 10 6 8 10 11 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Support 60% 56% 58% 56% 58% 64% 51% Oppose 34 33 37 37 32 30 40 DK/NA 7 11 6 7 10 7 9 TREND: The new law would require public employees to pay at least 10 percent of their wages for their pensions. Do you support or oppose requiring public workers to pay at least 10 percent of their wages for their pensions? Jul 20 May 18 2011 2011 Support 58 58 Oppose 33 34 DK/NA 9 9 27. The new law would replace automatic pay increases based on length of service with increases based on merit. Do you support or oppose replacing automatic pay increases based on longevity with merit pay for public employees? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 56% 70% 46% 59% 59% 53% 62% Oppose 35 24 46 33 33 37 30 DK/NA 9 6 9 9 7 10 8 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Support 59% 53% 51% 53% 57% 65% 49% Oppose 34 35 45 41 36 28 44 DK/NA 7 12 4 6 7 7 8 TREND: The new law would replace automatic pay increases based on length of service with increases based on merit. Do you support or oppose replacing automatic pay increases based on longevity with merit pay for public employees? Jul 20 May 18 2011 2011 Support 56 57 Oppose 35 35 DK/NA 9 7 28. The new law would eliminate seniority as the sole factor when determining layoffs. Do you support or oppose eliminating seniority as the sole factor when determining layoffs? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 45% 55% 33% 48% 52% 37% 44% Oppose 49 37 63 45 43 55 49 DK/NA 6 8 4 7 5 8 7 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Support 45% 43% 44% 36% 53% 42% 39% Oppose 50 49 51 56 42 52 57 DK/NA 5 7 5 8 5 7 5 TREND: The new law would eliminate seniority as the sole factor when determining layoffs. Do you support or oppose eliminating seniority as the sole factor when determining layoffs? Jul 20 May 18 2011 2011 Support 45 45 Oppose 49 50 DK/NA 6 5 29. As you may know, the new federal health care law passed in 2010 will require nearly all Americans to have health insurance or else pay a fine. Do you support or oppose that requirement? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 29% 11% 48% 26% 29% 29% 19% Oppose 67 86 46 70 67 66 77 DK/NA 5 3 6 4 4 5 4 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Support 27% 32% 31% 24% 26% 26% 36% Oppose 71 61 63 71 71 72 59 DK/NA 2 7 6 5 3 2 4 30. As you may know, there is a proposed amendment to Ohio's constitution on the November ballot seeking to block the federal health care requirement for Ohio residents. Do you support or oppose an amendment to block the federal health care requirement for Ohio residents? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 48% 78% 20% 49% 52% 44% 62% Oppose 45 17 71 44 44 47 33 DK/NA 7 5 8 8 5 10 5 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Support 52% 41% 37% 58% 52% 55% 44% Oppose 44 49 57 34 40 40 50 DK/NA 3 10 6 8 8 5 6 31. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling the state budget? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 32% 63% 10% 30% 38% 26% 42% Disapprove 54 25 78 54 51 58 45 DK/NA 14 12 12 16 11 16 12 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Approve 34% 27% 36% 30% 30% 43% 24% Disapprove 50 59 49 53 61 44 69 DK/NA 15 14 16 17 9 13 8 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling the state budget? Jul 20 May 18 Mar 23 2011 2011 2011 Approve 32 35 31 Disapprove 54 53 51 DK/NA 14 12 18 32. How serious do you think Ohio's budget problems are - very serious, somewhat serious, not too serious, or not at all serious? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Very serious 60% 65% 56% 57% 58% 61% 61% Smwht serious 34 29 37 38 34 34 33 Not too serious 3 3 4 2 5 2 3 Not at all serious 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 2 3 1 2 2 2 2 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Very serious 57% 61% 62% 61% 63% 55% 57% Smwht serious 39 32 34 28 31 38 34 Not too serious 2 3 3 5 4 4 6 Not at all serious - 1 - 4 2 1 2 DK/NA 2 3 1 2 1 1 1 TREND: How serious do you think Ohio's budget problems are very serious, somewhat serious, not too serious or not at all serious? Jul 20 May 18 Mar 23 Jan 19 Mar 21 Feb 01 2011 2011 2011 2011 2007 2007 Very serious 60 64 62 69 37 43 Smwht serious 34 33 33 27 48 43 Not too serious 3 2 2 2 9 7 Not at all serious 1 - - - 1 1 DK/NA 2 1 3 2 6 6 33. Do you think that the budget approved by the legislature and signed by Governor Kasich is fair or unfair to people like you? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Fair 32% 58% 12% 34% 38% 26% 41% Unfair 50 25 74 46 45 55 41 DK/NA 18 17 13 20 17 19 19 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Fair 39% 28% 36% 26% 29% 39% 29% Unfair 45 54 51 50 53 43 62 DK/NA 17 19 12 23 18 18 9 34. What do you think about the cuts in state spending used to balance the state budget? Do you think the cuts in state spending go too far, not far enough or are they about right? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Too far 34% 13% 53% 34% 31% 38% 24% Not far enough 25 33 16 26 28 22 28 About right 30 44 20 28 32 28 35 DK/NA 11 10 11 11 9 12 12 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Too far 32% 39% 31% 33% 33% 29% 43% Not far enough 24 22 23 29 34 27 22 About right 35 26 37 25 28 32 27 DK/NA 9 13 9 13 6 12 8 35. Do you think that the spending cuts will help Ohio's economy, hurt Ohio's economy, or not make a difference? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Help 34% 55% 19% 33% 38% 31% 42% Hurt 27 12 40 28 27 28 22 No difference 32 27 34 33 30 33 30 DK/NA 7 6 7 6 5 8 6 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Help 38% 31% 37% 34% 35% 37% 26% Hurt 23 30 29 20 26 28 36 No difference 30 32 27 38 34 30 34 DK/NA 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 36. Which comes closer to your view regarding the budget: A) It is a good thing that taxes were not raised and the budget deficit was closed by just spending cuts. OR B) Taxes should have been raised so that there would have been fewer spending cuts. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Good thing taxes not raised 63% 83% 46% 63% 61% 64% 73% Taxes shld have been raised 28 10 44 29 31 25 16 DK/NA 9 7 11 8 8 10 10 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Good thing taxes not raised 59% 62% 64% 67% 66% 66% 54% Taxes shld have been raised 33 26 27 24 27 27 33 DK/NA 8 12 9 9 7 7 13 37. As you may know, the state legislature is considering legislation that would require voters in Ohio to show photo identification in order to vote. Do you support or oppose such a law? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 78% 93% 66% 77% 77% 79% 85% Oppose 20 6 33 21 22 19 14 DK/NA 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Support 78% 78% 81% 75% 79% 80% 75% Oppose 20 21 18 23 20 18 23 DK/NA 3 1 1 2 1 2 2
