September 27, 2011 - Women, Union Households Keep Ohio Gov Under Water, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Most Voters Want To Repeal SB 5 Limiting Unions Word format A 41-point disapproval from union households and a 16-point disapproval from women keep Ohio Gov. John Kasich under water with a negative 40 - 49 percent overall job approval, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to a negative 35 - 50 percent approval in a July 20 survey from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Ohio voters support 51 - 38 percent repeal in a November referendum of SB 5, the law limiting collective bargaining for public employees, compared to 56 - 32 percent in July. Republican voters approve of Gov. Kasich 72 - 18 percent, but disapproval is 74 - 17 percent among Democrats and 48 - 38 percent among independent voters. Men split 45 - 46 percent while women disapprove 51 - 35 percent. Disapproval among voters in households with a union member is 68 - 27 percent. In the SB 5 referendum, Republicans say keep the law 65 - 23 percent, up from 56 - 35 percent July 20. Men oppose SB 5 50 - 45 percent, compared to 55 - 37 percent. Women want to repeal the law 53 - 31 percent, compared to 56 - 28 percent in July. "Ohio voters seem to be warming a little toward Gov. John Kasich, although he is still under water when it comes to public opinion," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The governor still has more than three years left until he faces the voters again and his numbers are moving in the right direction. "But SB 5 is another story. Support for repealing the bill in the November referendum has dropped from a 24-point to a 13-point margin. Backers of SB 5 have only six weeks to make up the difference, although public opinion appears to be moving in their direction." "The referendum on SB 5 also is a referendum on John Kasich," Brown added. Another area where Kasich shows improvement is voter perception of the fairness of his budget. Ohioans say it is unfair 49 - 36 percent, up from 50 - 32 percent in July. "Kasich sure has a ways to go to get his head above water, especially among women and union members, but his overall numbers are getting better," said Brown. Looking at the elements of SB 5, Ohio voters: Oppose 58 - 36 percent banning public employees from striking; Support 60 - 31 percent replacing automatic pay increases based on seniority with increases based on merit; Oppose 53 - 41 percent eliminating seniority rights as the sole factor in layoffs; Support 59 - 35 percent requiring public employees to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance costs; Support 56 - 33 percent requiring public employees to pay 10 percent of their wages toward their pensions; Oppose 54 - 39 percent banning public employees from bargaining over health insurance. Ohio voters oppose 56 - 32 percent Kasich's proposal to lease the Ohio Turnpike to a private company to raise money to fund transportation projects. One Ohio politician who voters think is doing a good job is U.S. Sen. Rob Portman, who earns a 41 - 23 percent approval rating. From September 20 - 25, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,301 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling his job as Governor? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 40% 72% 17% 38% 45% 35% 48% Disapprove 49 18 74 48 46 51 36 DK/NA 11 10 9 15 9 14 16 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthW WstCnt HsHld Approve 43% 36% 39% 39% 45% 27% Disapprove 52 50 50 48 45 68 DK/NA 6 14 11 13 10 5 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling his job as Governor? Sep 27 Jul 20 May 18 Mar 23 Jan 19 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 Approve 40 35 38 30 30 Disapprove 49 50 49 46 22 DK/NA 11 15 13 23 48 10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rob Portman is handling his job as United States Senator? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 41% 65% 31% 35% 46% 37% 43% Disapprove 23 8 34 24 26 21 16 DK/NA 35 27 36 42 28 42 41 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthW WstCnt HsHld Approve 41% 34% 34% 53% 49% 35% Disapprove 25 21 27 27 26 30 DK/NA 34 45 39 20 25 35 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rob Portman is handling his job as United States Senator? Sep 27 Jul 21 May 19 Mar 24 Jan 20 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 Approve 41 40 38 30 34 Disapprove 23 21 21 25 16 DK/NA 35 39 41 45 51 15. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Very satisfied 3% 5% 4% 1% 3% 4% 2% Smwht satisfied 31 48 23 28 33 30 41 Smwht dissatisfied 32 26 33 35 30 34 27 Very dissatisfied 32 19 39 35 34 31 30 DK/NA 1 2 1 - - 1 - Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthW WstCnt HsHld Very satisfied 5% 3% 6% 3% 2% 3% Smwht satisfied 35 35 26 25 32 23 Smwht dissatisfied 29 28 38 38 39 33 Very dissatisfied 32 34 30 32 25 41 DK/NA - 1 1 2 2 1 TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? VERY+SMWHT SAT High Low Sep 27 Jul 20 May 18 Mar 23 Jan 19 Mar 21 Mar 23 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2007 2011 Very satisfied 3 3 3 3 3 5 3 Smwht satisfied 31 31 30 26 28 49 26 Smwht dissatisfied 32 32 32 34 39 28 34 Very dissatisfied 32 32 35 36 28 16 36 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 16. As you may know, there is a new law in Ohio that would limit collective bargaining for public employees. Do you support or oppose limiting collective bargaining for public employees? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 40% 65% 18% 41% 46% 34% 46% Oppose 50 26 67 51 49 50 42 DK/NA 11 9 14 8 6 16 13 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthW WstCnt HsHld Support 39% 38% 39% 46% 39% 25% Oppose 52 51 51 44 47 70 DK/NA 9 11 10 10 14 5 TREND: As you may know, there is a new law in Ohio that would limit collective bargaining for public employees. Do you support or oppose limiting collective bargaining for public employees? (*Mar 2011 "proposed" law) Sep 27 Jul 20 May 18 Mar 23 2011 2011 2011 2011* Support 40 34 38 41 Oppose 50 52 50 48 DK/NA 11 14 12 10 17. As you may know there is a proposed referendum to repeal this new law. Do you think this new law which limits collective bargaining for public employees should be kept or repealed? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Kept 38% 65% 18% 35% 45% 31% 42% Repealed 51 23 71 55 50 53 43 DK/NA 11 12 11 9 5 16 15 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthW WstCnt HsHld Kept 42% 36% 36% 36% 39% 23% Repealed 50 53 52 52 48 72 DK/NA 8 11 12 12 13 4 TREND: As you may know there is a proposed referendum to repeal this new law. Do you think this new law which limits collective bargaining for public employees should be kept or repealed? Sep 27 Jul 20 May 18 2011 2011 2011 Kept 38 32 36 Repealed 51 56 54 DK/NA 11 12 10 20. Do you think limiting collective bargaining for public employees is necessary to help balance the state budget or not? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 41% 70% 24% 35% 46% 36% 44% No 50 22 65 56 49 51 42 DK/NA 9 8 11 9 5 13 14 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthW WstCnt HsHld Yes 43% 37% 40% 42% 43% 24% No 52 51 48 50 44 70 DK/NA 4 12 11 8 13 6 TREND: Do you think limiting collective bargaining for public employees is necessary to help balance the state budget or not? Sep 27 Jul 20 May 18 Mar 23 2011 2011 2011 2011 Yes 41 38 38 37 No 50 50 52 55 DK/NA 9 11 10 8 21. The new law limiting collective bargaining for public employees would ban all public employee strikes. Do you support or oppose banning all public employee strikes? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 36% 70% 12% 35% 43% 30% 41% Oppose 58 25 84 57 55 61 51 DK/NA 5 5 5 8 2 9 8 Union HsHld Support 21% Oppose 74 DK/NA 5 TREND: The new law limiting collective bargaining for public employees would ban all public employee strikes. Do you support or oppose banning all public employee strikes? (*Mar 2011 "proposed" law) Sep 27 Jul 20 May 18 Mar 23 2011 2011 2011 2011* Support 36 36 35 35 Oppose 58 56 58 58 DK/NA 5 8 7 7 22. The new law would require public employees to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums. Do you support or oppose requiring public employees to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 59% 87% 35% 61% 61% 56% 66% Oppose 35 10 56 32 32 37 28 DK/NA 7 3 9 7 7 7 7 Union HsHld Support 42% Oppose 52 DK/NA 6 TREND: The new law would require public employees to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums. Do you support or oppose requiring public employees to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums? (*Mar 2011 "proposed" law) Sep 27 Jul 20 May 18 Mar 23 2011 2011 2011 2011* Support 59 60 59 66 Oppose 35 33 34 27 DK/NA 7 7 7 8 23. The new law would prevent the public employee unions from bargaining over their health insurance plans. Do you support or oppose preventing the public employee unions from bargaining over their health insurance plans? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 39% 62% 23% 37% 41% 37% 43% Oppose 54 30 72 56 54 54 46 DK/NA 7 8 5 7 4 10 11 Union HsHld Support 28% Oppose 66 DK/NA 6 TREND: The new law would prevent the public employee unions from bargaining over their health insurance plans. Do you support or oppose preventing the public employee unions from bargaining over their health insurance plans? (*May 2011 "bargaining over health insurance plans for public employees") Sep 27 Jul 20 May 18 2011 2011 2011* Support 39 36 38 Oppose 54 58 54 DK/NA 7 6 8 24. The new law would require public employees to pay at least 10 percent of their wages for their pensions. Do you support or oppose requiring public workers to pay at least 10 percent of their wages for their pensions? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 56% 78% 39% 56% 59% 52% 57% Oppose 33 16 49 31 33 34 31 DK/NA 11 7 12 12 8 14 12 Union HsHld Support 44% Oppose 45 DK/NA 11 TREND: The new law would require public employees to pay at least 10 percent of their wages for their pensions. Do you support or oppose requiring public workers to pay at least 10 percent of their wages for their pensions? Sep 27 Jul 20 May 18 2011 2011 2011 Support 56 58 58 Oppose 33 33 34 DK/NA 11 9 9 25. The new law would replace automatic pay increases based on length of service with increases based on merit. Do you support or oppose replacing automatic pay increases based on longevity with merit pay for public employees? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 60% 69% 52% 62% 66% 55% 58% Oppose 31 25 38 29 29 34 32 DK/NA 8 6 10 9 6 11 10 Union HsHld Support 57% Oppose 39 DK/NA 4 TREND: The new law would replace automatic pay increases based on length of service with increases based on merit. Do you support or oppose replacing automatic pay increases based on longevity with merit pay for public employees? Sep 27 Jul 20 May 18 2011 2011 2011 Support 60 56 57 Oppose 31 35 35 DK/NA 8 9 7 26. The new law would eliminate seniority as the sole factor when determining layoffs. Do you support or oppose eliminating seniority as the sole factor when determining layoffs? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 41% 59% 26% 44% 55% 30% 46% Oppose 53 36 69 49 42 62 48 DK/NA 6 5 5 7 4 8 6 Union HsHld Support 30% Oppose 66 DK/NA 3 TREND: The new law would eliminate seniority as the sole factor when determining layoffs. Do you support or oppose eliminating seniority as the sole factor when determining layoffs? Sep 27 Jul 20 May 18 2011 2011 2011 Support 41 45 45 Oppose 53 49 50 DK/NA 6 6 5 31. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling the state budget? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 35% 72% 11% 31% 43% 29% 44% Disapprove 53 18 78 55 49 57 41 DK/NA 12 9 11 14 8 15 15 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthW WstCnt HsHld Approve 40% 32% 41% 35% 35% 27% Disapprove 53 57 48 53 46 69 DK/NA 8 10 11 12 18 4 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling the state budget? Sep 27 Jul 20 May 18 Mar 23 2011 2011 2011 2011 Approve 35 32 35 31 Disapprove 53 54 53 51 DK/NA 12 14 12 18 32. Do you think that the budget approved by the legislature and signed by Governor Kasich is fair or unfair to people like you? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Fair 36% 67% 17% 33% 44% 29% 42% Unfair 49 18 71 48 43 54 39 DK/NA 15 14 11 19 13 17 19 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthW WstCnt HsHld Fair 38% 35% 39% 39% 34% 28% Unfair 45 53 47 46 46 63 DK/NA 17 12 14 14 20 9 TREND: Do you think that the budget approved by the legislature and signed by Governor Kasich is fair or unfair to people like you? Sep 27 Jul 20 2011 2011 Fair 36 32 Unfair 49 50 DK/NA 15 18 33. What do you think about the cuts in state spending used to balance the state budget? Do you think the cuts in state spending go too far, not far enough or are they about right? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Too far 35% 12% 55% 33% 32% 38% 28% Not far enough 26 34 20 24 27 25 28 About right 29 44 15 31 34 24 31 DK/NA 11 10 10 12 8 14 13 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthW WstCnt HsHld Too far 33% 36% 29% 35% 36% 46% Not far enough 28 26 24 23 23 23 About right 29 27 34 30 29 23 DK/NA 10 10 12 12 13 8 TREND: What do you think about the cuts in state spending used to balance the state budget? Do you think the cuts in state spending go too far, not far enough or are they about right? Sep 27 Jul 20 2011 2011 Too far 35 34 Not far enough 26 25 About right 29 30 DK/NA 11 11 34. Governor Kasich says he would like to lease the Ohio Turnpike to a private company and use the funds the state would receive to fund other transportation projects for Ohio. Do you think leasing the Ohio Turnpike is a good idea or a bad idea? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Good idea 32% 55% 20% 28% 35% 29% 31% Bad idea 56 32 71 60 57 56 52 DK/NA 11 14 9 12 8 15 17 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthW WstCnt HsHld Good idea 39% 27% 26% 34% 39% 19% Bad idea 48 64 65 53 44 73 DK/NA 13 9 9 13 17 8 Demographic Summary
