September 28, 2011 - Romney-Perry See-Saw Among Ohio Republicans, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Both Running Neck And Neck With Obama Word format Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is top dog in the Ohio Republican presidential pack with 24 percent of GOP voters, while Texas Gov. Rick Perry is nipping at his heels with 20 percent, and no other candidate over 9 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Minnesota U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann runs eighth with 3 percent of the vote. But Perry tops Romney 42 - 38 percent in a head-to-head matchup among Republicans, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Among all contenders, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin gets 9 percent, followed by businessman Herman Cain at 7 percent, Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul at 6 percent and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 4 percent each. If Palin decides not to run, Romney gets 25 percent to Perry's 21 percent. In 2012 general election matchups: President Barack Obama gets 44 percent to Perry's 41 percent, too close to call; President Obama gets 44 percent to Romney's 42 percent, also too close to call. Ohio voters disapprove 53 - 42 percent of the job Obama is doing, matching his lowest overall approval, and say 51 - 43 percent that the president does not deserve to be reelected. "The Republican presidential race in Ohio at this point is shifting back and forth between former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Texas Gov. Rick Perry," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Perry's strength is among two large constituencies within the Republican coalition. In a two-man race, Perry defeats Romney 57 - 30 percent among Republicans who consider themselves part of the Tea Party movement. He leads Romney 48 - 33 percent among Republicans who are white, evangelical Christians." "President Barack Obama's standing among all Ohio voters is back to its lowest ever," said Brown. "They give him a 53 - 42 percent disapproval rating on his job performance, and say by 51 - 43 percent say he does not deserve another term in the Oval Office. But when he is matched against Perry and Romney, those races are statistical ties." There is a gender gap in the general election matchups: Men back Perry over Obama 45 - 41 percent, while women go Democratic 46 - 37 percent; Men back Romney over Obama 47 - 41 percent, as women back the president 46 - 38 percent. Among independent voters, a key voting group, Obama gets 38 percent to Perry's 35 percent. He splits these voters 39 - 39 percent with Romney. Independent voters disapprove 56 - 38 percent of Obama's job performance, as do Republicans 91 - 7 percent. Democrats approve 77 - 19 percent. Men disapprove 58 - 39 percent, while women disapprove by a narrow 49 - 45 percent. In a July 21 Quinnipiac University survey of Ohio voters, Obama's disapproval was 50 - 46 percent and voters split 46 - 47 percent on whether he deserves four more years. In Ohio's U.S. Senate race, State Treasurer Josh Mandel leads State Sen. Kevin Coughlin 33 - 12 percent in the battle for the Republican nomination, but both men trail by double digits against Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown. Brown tops Coughlin 53 - 32 percent and leads Mandel 49 - 36 percent. Ohio voters approve of the job Brown is doing 52 - 31 percent and say 50 - 34 percent they feel that he deserves another term in office. Ohio voters say 64 - 29 percent that Perry's description of Social Security as a "Ponzi scheme" is unfair, although Republicans are split 44 - 45 percent. Voters say 39 - 30 percent that Perry is more interested in ending Social Security than fixing it, but Republicans say 53 - 16 percent Perry wants to fix it. Among independent voters, 32 percent say he wants to fix Social Security while 36 percent say he wants to end it. From September 20 - 25, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,301 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 423 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percent. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. (If Registered Republicans)If the 2012 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were, Rick Perry, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, and Herman Cain for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS............. PrtOf WtBrnAg Tot Men Wom TeaPty Evnglcl Perry 20% 20% 19% 25% 22% Palin 9 8 9 13 13 Gingrich 4 2 6 5 6 Romney 24 25 23 18 18 Bachmann 3 4 1 3 2 Santorum 4 3 5 8 2 Paul 6 8 4 5 4 Huntsman 1 2 1 2 1 Cain 7 10 3 11 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 - 1 DK/NA 21 15 26 10 26 TREND: (If Registered Republicans) If the 2012 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Rick Perry, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, and Herman Cain for whom would you vote? (na=not asked in survey reported) REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Sep 28 Jul 21 2011 2011 Perry 20 8 Palin 9 15 Gingrich 4 4 Romney 24 16 Bachmann 3 11 Santorum 4 2 Paul 6 5 Huntsman 1 1 Cain 7 6 Pawlenty na 3 McCotter na - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 na WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 na DK/NA 21 28 1a. (If voting for Palin q1)Who is your second choice? (Recalculated primary vote without Palin using second choice question) REGISTERED REPUBLICANS............. Q1 WITHOUT PALIN................... PrtOf WtBrnAg Tot Men Wom TeaPty Evnglcl Perry 21% 23% 20% 27% 25% Gingrich 6 4 8 7 8 Romney 25 25 25 22 20 Bachmann 4 5 3 6 4 Santorum 4 3 5 8 2 Paul 6 9 4 6 5 Huntsman 2 3 1 2 2 Cain 7 10 3 12 6 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 - 1 DK/NA 22 16 28 10 26 TREND: (If voting for Palin q1)Who is your second choice? (Recalculated primary vote without Palin using second choice question) REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Q1 WITHOUT PALIN Sep 28 Jul 21 2011 2011 Perry 21 8 Gingrich 6 6 Romney 25 19 Bachmann 4 16 Santorum 4 3 Paul 6 6 Huntsman 2 1 Cain 7 7 Pawlenty na 3 McCotter na - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 na WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 na DK/NA 22 31 2. (If Registered Republican)Suppose the primary came down to a choice between Rick Perry and Mitt Romney for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS............. PrtOf WtBrnAg Tot Men Wom TeaPty Evnglcl Perry 42% 46% 37% 57% 48% Romney 38 40 36 30 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 - 1 DK/NA 17 11 24 11 17 3. (If Registered Republican)If the 2012 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Josh Mandel and Kevin Coughlin for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS............. PrtOf WtBrnAg Tot Men Wom TeaPty Evnglcl Mandel 33% 40% 25% 36% 32% Coughlin 12 13 11 12 14 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 DK/NA 53 43 62 51 53 TREND: (If Registered Republican)If the 2012 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Josh Mandel and Kevin Coughlin for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Sep 28 Jul 21 2011 2011 Mandel 33 35 Coughlin 12 12 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 5 DK/NA 53 46 4. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rick Perry the Republican for whom would you vote? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Obama 44% 4% 84% 38% 41% 46% 24% Perry 41 91 6 35 45 37 60 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 5 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 6 3 4 3 DK/NA 10 4 6 16 8 11 11 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthW WstCnt HsHld Obama 46% 47% 39% 46% 36% 55% Perry 41 38 40 40 49 32 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 4 4 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 4 3 1 4 3 DK/NA 9 9 14 10 9 8 TREND: If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rick Perry the Republican for whom would you vote? Sep 28 Jul 21 2011 2011 Obama 44 47 Perry 41 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 DK/NA 10 11 5. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican for whom would you vote? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Obama 44% 3% 83% 39% 41% 46% 25% Romney 42 93 7 39 47 38 60 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 3 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 5 3 3 3 DK/NA 9 3 6 14 7 11 10 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthW WstCnt HsHld Obama 46% 49% 35% 45% 38% 53% Romney 44 38 42 42 50 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 5 4 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 5 3 1 2 3 DK/NA 8 8 16 8 10 7 TREND: If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican for whom would you vote? Sep 28 Jul 21 2011 2011 Obama 44 45 Romney 42 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 DK/NA 9 9 6. Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in the 2012 presidential election next year - are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl More 31% 51% 23% 24% 34% 28% 32% Less 23 15 21 31 20 26 23 About the same 46 33 56 44 46 46 45 DK/NA - - - 1 - - - Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthW WstCnt HsHld More 34% 31% 32% 28% 25% 29% Less 21 21 24 19 29 25 About the same 44 47 42 53 45 45 DK/NA - - 1 - 1 - 7. If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Sherrod Brown the Democrat and Josh Mandel the Republican for whom would you vote? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Brown 49% 8% 88% 43% 49% 49% 33% Mandel 36 81 4 33 40 32 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 3 1 2 1 DK/NA 13 10 7 18 9 16 16 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthW WstCnt HsHld Brown 46% 54% 50% 46% 39% 62% Mandel 37 34 36 37 38 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 4 2 DK/NA 15 9 13 15 15 9 TREND: If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Sherrod Brown the Democrat, and Josh Mandel the Republican for whom would you vote? Sep 28 Jul 21 May 19 2011 2011 2011 Brown 49 49 45 Mandel 36 34 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 DK/NA 13 14 21 8. If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Sherrod Brown the Democrat and Kevin Coughlin the Republican for whom would you vote? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Brown 53% 9% 90% 50% 50% 55% 38% Coughlin 32 78 2 29 36 29 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 - 3 1 3 2 DK/NA 13 12 8 16 12 13 15 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthW WstCnt HsHld Brown 51% 58% 59% 46% 48% 63% Coughlin 33 29 28 38 33 27 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 - 1 4 1 DK/NA 14 11 12 14 15 8 TREND: If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Sherrod Brown the Democrat, and Kevin Coughlin the Republican for whom would you vote? Sep 28 Jul 21 May 19 2011 2011 2011 Brown 53 50 44 Coughlin 32 32 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 2 DK/NA 13 15 23 11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 52% 26% 77% 49% 48% 55% 39% Disapprove 31 58 9 30 38 24 36 DK/NA 18 16 14 21 14 21 25 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthW WstCnt HsHld Approve 53% 56% 54% 41% 52% 65% Disapprove 31 27 33 38 31 23 DK/NA 16 18 13 21 18 12 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator? (* High also 52% May 2009) APPROVE...... High Low Sep 28 Jul 21 May 19 Mar 24 Jan 20 Sep 28 Jul 07 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2009 Approve 52 49 49 43 45 52 41 Disapprove 31 30 30 27 25 31 29 DK/NA 18 21 21 30 30 18 30 12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 42% 7% 77% 38% 39% 45% 30% Disapprove 53 91 19 56 58 49 68 DK/NA 4 1 5 6 3 6 2 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthW WstCnt HsHld Approve 48% 44% 32% 45% 41% 48% Disapprove 50 51 64 50 54 48 DK/NA 2 5 5 5 5 5 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? APPROVE....... High Low Sep 28 Jul 21 May 19 Mar 24 Jan 20 Feb 06 Sep 28 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2009 2011 Approve 42 46 49 47 49 67 42 Disapprove 53 50 45 48 46 16 53 DK/NA 4 4 6 5 5 17 4 13. Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes/Deserves 43% 4% 82% 37% 40% 46% 27% No/Does not 51 95 15 53 55 48 69 DK/NA 6 1 3 10 5 6 4 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthW WstCnt HsHld Yes/Deserves 46% 47% 33% 47% 37% 50% No/Does not 49 47 62 46 55 44 DK/NA 5 6 5 7 8 6 TREND: Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Sep 28 Jul 21 May 19 Mar 24 Jan 20 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 Yes/Deserves 43 46 47 45 48 No/Does not 51 47 47 46 44 DK/NA 6 7 6 9 8 14. Do you feel that Sherrod Brown deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes/Deserves 50% 15% 84% 46% 48% 52% 35% No/Does not 34 69 5 33 39 28 41 DK/NA 16 16 11 20 13 20 24 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthW WstCnt HsHld Yes/Deserves 51% 55% 50% 40% 44% 61% No/Does not 33 30 33 40 40 25 DK/NA 16 15 17 20 16 14 TREND: Looking ahead to the 2012 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Sherrod Brown deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Sep 28 Jul 21 May 19 Mar 24 Jan 20 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 Yes/Deserves 50 47 49 45 45 No/Does not 34 33 31 30 30 DK/NA 16 20 20 25 25 35. Under the current Social Security system employers and employees pay Social Security taxes on workers incomes only up to the first $106,800 they earn. Do you support or oppose raising this $106,800 income cap to help bring more money into the Social Security system? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 59% 49% 65% 62% 60% 59% 50% Oppose 31 42 28 27 34 29 36 DK/NA 9 9 7 11 6 12 13 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthW WstCnt HsHld Support 56% 60% 65% 62% 57% 61% Oppose 36 32 25 26 31 28 DK/NA 8 8 10 12 12 12 36. Some people say that raising the amount of income subject to Social Security taxes will lead employers to do less hiring. Do you agree or disagree? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Agree 32% 46% 21% 32% 32% 33% 36% Disagree 61 47 72 61 64 58 54 DK/NA 7 7 7 7 4 9 9 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthW WstCnt HsHld Agree 34% 32% 29% 33% 29% 31% Disagree 60 62 64 61 60 65 DK/NA 6 6 6 6 11 4 37. Benefits for today's retirees come from taxes paid by today's workers. When today's workers retire, their benefits will be paid by people working at the time. Some have said this system is a "Ponzi scheme." Do you think that is fair or unfair to describe the Social Security system as a Ponzi scheme? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Fair 29% 44% 15% 28% 37% 21% 27% Unfair 64 45 82 62 59 69 61 DK/NA 7 11 3 10 5 10 12 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthW WstCnt HsHld Fair 29% 28% 26% 28% 29% 22% Unfair 65 65 66 63 62 72 DK/NA 6 7 8 9 9 6 38. Based on what you've heard or read, do you think Rick Perry wants to: Fix Social Security or End Social Security? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Fix Social Security 30% 53% 10% 32% 38% 22% 38% End Social Security 39 16 60 36 40 38 21 DK/NA 31 30 31 32 22 39 41 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthW WstCnt HsHld Fix Social Security 30% 25% 33% 33% 34% 26% End Social Security 37 41 38 41 37 42 DK/NA 32 34 29 26 29 32 39. If a presidential candidate said that in order to preserve the Social Security system they would not touch benefits for current retirees or workers soon to retire, but would reduce benefits for younger workers when they retire, would you be more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or wouldn't it make a difference? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl More likely 22% 34% 13% 22% 27% 18% 19% Less likely 43 27 54 44 36 48 44 No difference 29 29 30 30 33 27 28 DK/NA 6 11 4 4 4 8 8 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthW WstCnt HsHld More likely 24% 19% 21% 29% 22% 15% Less likely 45 43 51 35 38 54 No difference 26 31 22 31 37 25 DK/NA 5 8 7 5 3 6 40. Do you consider yourself part of the Tea Party movement or not? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 16% 38% 2% 15% 19% 14% 25% No 80 60 94 83 78 82 71 DK/NA 4 2 4 2 4 4 4 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthW WstCnt HsHld Yes 17% 14% 19% 13% 22% 13% No 81 81 78 84 73 85 DK/NA 2 4 3 4 5 2 Demographic Summary
