October 26, 2011 - Pizza Magnate Leads GOP Presidential Pack In Ohio, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Romney Stalled As Perry Vanishes Word format Former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain has jumped to the front of the line among GOP presidential contenders with 28 percent support among Ohio Republicans. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is second with 23 percent, while Texas Gov. Rick Perry is almost at the bottom of the pile with 4 percent. Cain leads a three-man race with 40 percent, followed by Romney at 33 percent and Perry at 10 percent. President Barack Obama's job approval rating and re-elect numbers remain underwater among Ohio voters, who disapprove 51 - 43 percent and say 49 - 44 percent the president does not deserve a second term, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Despite his negative scores, the president leads potential Republican challengers: 47 - 39 percent over Cain; 45 - 41 percent over Romney; 47 - 36 percent over Perry. In the GOP presidential race in Ohio, in line behind Cain and Romney are Texas Congressman Ron Paul with 8 percent, former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 7 percent, Perry and Minnesota U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann at 4 percent each, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman at 2 percent and former Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum at 1 percent. "Herman Cain's rise has been meteoric. He has increased his share of the vote among Ohio Republicans four times since Quinnipiac University's September 28 survey in which he registered 7 percent," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Gov. Mitt Romney hasn't moved and Rick Perry has fallen off a cliff, down to 4 percent from 20 percent." "There is a zero-sum relationship between how well Cain and Perry do. A large chunk of the new Cain support is coming from former supporters of the Texas governor," Brown added. "Cain's support is strong among Republican men, who give him 32 percent of their votes, while he receives 23 percent among GOP women. Romney, on the other hand, does better among women - 25 percent compared to 20 percent among GOP men. When Ohio Republicans are asked who they would support if the nomination came down to Cain, Romney and Perry, the former pizza executive's lead grows to 40 percent." Although Obama's negative ratings on his job approval and "deserves reelection" question remain basically unchanged, he defeats Romney 45 - 41 percent, compared to 44 - 42 percent in September, and Perry 47 - 36 percent, compared to 44 - 41 percent in September. Cain, who trails Obama 47 - 39 percent in today's trial heat, was not tested against him in September. In the closest general election matchup, between Romney and the president, men split 44 - 45 percent, while Obama has a 46 - 38 percent lead among women. They also capture their party bases equally, but Romney has a 43 - 36 percent margin among independent voters. "Ohio voters are not happy with the president's performance and don't think he deserves a second term. But elections are about choices," said Brown. "At this point none of the Republicans are able to take advantage of these presidential negatives. The next year will determine if the GOP is able to nominate a candidate who can do so." In Ohio's U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown remains solidly ahead of his two GOP challengers. Voters prefer Brown to Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel 49 - 34 percent and Brown to State Sen. Kevin Coughlin 51 - 30 percent. In a primary test among GOP voters, Mandel defeats Coughlin 35 - 12 percent, with 48 percent undecided. "The GOP contenders for Sen. Sherrod Brown's seat are not well known. Whether they will run better once they do get better known around the state will decide the election." From October 17 - 23, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,668 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Republican primary includes 542 voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percent. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. (If Registered Republican)If the 2012 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, and Herman Cain for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS............... Union WhtBrnAgn Tot Men Wom HsHld Evnglcl Perry 4% 5% 4% 4% 3% Gingrich 7 8 6 8 9 Romney 23 20 25 19 15 Bachmann 4 4 5 5 4 Santorum 1 1 2 2 2 Paul 8 12 4 13 7 Huntsman 2 1 2 1 1 Cain 28 32 23 23 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 4 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 3 2 3 DK/NA 18 13 24 18 25 TREND: (If Registered Republican)If the 2012 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, and Herman Cain for whom would you vote? (na=not asked) REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Oct 26 Sep 28 Jul 21 2011 2011 2011 Perry 4 20 8 Gingrich 7 4 4 Romney 23 24 16 Bachmann 4 3 11 Santorum 1 4 2 Paul 8 6 5 Huntsman 2 1 1 Cain 28 7 6 Pawlenty na na 3 McCotter na na - Palin na 9 15 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 na WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 na DK/NA 18 21 28 2. (If Registered Republican)Suppose the primary came down to a choice between Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and Mitt Romney for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS............... Union WhtBrnAgn Tot Men Wom HsHld Evnglcl Perry 10% 10% 9% 12% 10% Cain 40 45 34 37 44 Romney 33 31 35 33 25 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 4 1 2 2 DK/NA 14 7 20 16 19 3. (If Registered Republican)If the 2012 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Josh Mandel and Kevin Coughlin for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS............... Union WhtBrnAgn Tot Men Wom HsHld Evnglcl Mandel 35% 38% 30% 31% 31% Coughlin 12 13 11 15 11 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 4 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 48 45 52 49 56 TREND:(If Registered Republican)If the 2012 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Josh Mandel and Kevin Coughlin for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Oct 26 Sep 28 Jul 21 2011 2011 2011 Mandel 35 33 35 Coughlin 12 12 12 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 5 DK/NA 48 53 46 4. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rick Perry the Republican for whom would you vote? UNION HSHLD Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Obama 47% 7% 86% 40% 46% 47% 53% 45% Perry 36 83 4 35 39 34 34 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 1 6 4 3 2 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 2 5 4 3 3 4 DK/NA 10 5 7 14 6 13 7 11 AGE IN YEARS..... WhtBrnAgn White Black 18-34 35-54 55+ Evnglcl Obama 41% 87% 50% 46% 46% 28% Perry 42 3 29 39 38 56 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 4 3 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 5 2 4 5 DK/NA 10 5 11 9 9 10 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME No Yes <100K >100K Obama 46% 49% 48% 46% Perry 36 38 35 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 3 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 4 3 DK/NA 11 7 9 4 TREND: If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rick Perry the Republican for whom would you vote? Oct 26 Sep 28 Jul 21 2011 2011 2011 Obama 47 44 47 Perry 36 41 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 3 DK/NA 10 10 11 5. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican for whom would you vote? UNION HSHLD Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Obama 45% 6% 88% 36% 44% 46% 54% 42% Romney 41 87 5 43 45 38 37 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 - 4 3 2 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 3 3 3 2 3 DK/NA 9 4 5 13 5 12 6 9 AGE IN YEARS..... WhtBrnAgn White Black 18-34 35-54 55+ Evnglcl Obama 39% 86% 50% 45% 44% 26% Romney 47 3 33 43 44 60 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 5 1 2 5 DK/NA 9 7 10 8 8 7 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME No Yes <100K >100K Obama 45% 46% 47% 44% Romney 39 46 40 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 3 1 DK/NA 10 5 8 3 TREND: If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican for whom would you vote? Oct 26 Sep 28 Jul 21 2011 2011 2011 Obama 45 44 45 Romney 41 42 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 DK/NA 9 9 9 6. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Herman Cain the Republican for whom would you vote? UNION HSHLD Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Obama 47% 8% 87% 40% 46% 49% 54% 45% Cain 39 85 5 40 44 35 36 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 2 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 3 2 3 2 3 DK/NA 9 4 5 13 6 12 7 9 AGE IN YEARS..... WhtBrnAgn White Black 18-34 35-54 55+ Evnglcl Obama 41% 86% 51% 46% 47% 27% Cain 45 6 33 42 41 59 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 3 2 3 3 DK/NA 9 5 10 9 8 9 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME No Yes <100K >100K Obama 47% 49% 49% 46% Cain 38 42 38 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 3 2 DK/NA 10 7 8 4 7. Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in the 2012 presidential election next year - are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual? UNION HSHLD Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No More 25% 41% 22% 20% 32% 19% 25% 25% Less 23 15 25 26 21 25 24 23 About the same 51 44 53 53 46 56 51 51 DK/NA 1 - - 1 1 1 - 1 AGE IN YEARS..... WhtBrnAgn White Black 18-34 35-54 55+ Evnglcl More 25% 27% 18% 24% 30% 30% Less 24 14 19 27 22 23 About the same 50 59 63 49 47 47 DK/NA 1 - 1 - 1 - COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME No Yes <100K >100K More 24% 29% 24% 32% Less 22 25 23 23 About the same 53 46 52 45 DK/NA 1 - - - TREND: Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in the 2012 presidential election next year - are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual? Oct 26 Sep 28 2011 2011 More 25 31 Less 23 23 About the same 51 46 DK/NA 1 - 8. If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Sherrod Brown the Democrat and Josh Mandel the Republican for whom would you vote? UNION HSHLD Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Brown 49% 13% 89% 40% 48% 50% 55% 47% Mandel 34 75 4 34 39 29 31 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 14 12 5 20 10 18 12 14 AGE IN YEARS..... WhtBrnAgn White Black 18-34 35-54 55+ Evnglcl Brown 43% 84% 45% 49% 51% 36% Mandel 39 4 33 33 35 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 4 1 2 2 DK/NA 14 12 16 15 12 15 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME No Yes <100K >100K Brown 49% 48% 50% 46% Mandel 31 40 33 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 2 DK/NA 16 10 14 9 TREND: If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Sherrod Brown the Democrat and Josh Mandel the Republican for whom would you vote? Oct 26 Sep 28 Jul 21 May 19 2011 2011 2011 2011 Brown 49 49 49 45 Mandel 34 36 34 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 1 DK/NA 14 13 14 21 9. If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Sherrod Brown the Democrat and Kevin Coughlin the Republican? UNION HSHLD Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Brown 51% 15% 89% 45% 50% 52% 59% 48% Coughlin 30 70 3 28 35 26 25 32 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 2 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 - 4 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 16 14 7 21 12 19 13 16 AGE IN YEARS..... WhtBrnAgn White Black 18-34 35-54 55+ Evnglcl Brown 46% 85% 52% 50% 51% 35% Coughlin 35 4 26 29 33 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 4 1 1 3 DK/NA 16 9 18 17 13 18 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME No Yes <100K >100K Brown 50% 52% 52% 47% Coughlin 29 34 29 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 1 DK/NA 17 12 16 11 TREND: If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Sherrod Brown the Democrat and Kevin Coughlin the Republican for whom would you vote? Oct 26 Sep 28 Jul 21 May 19 2011 2011 2011 2011 Brown 51 53 50 44 Coughlin 30 32 32 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 3 2 DK/NA 16 13 15 23 12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator? UNION HSHLD Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 50% 28% 76% 44% 50% 50% 57% 48% Disapprove 30 52 10 32 34 26 26 31 DK/NA 20 20 15 24 16 24 17 21 AGE IN YEARS..... WhtBrnAgn White Black 18-34 35-54 55+ Evnglcl Approve 48% 61% 47% 53% 50% 40% Disapprove 32 15 24 31 32 39 DK/NA 20 24 29 16 18 22 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME No Yes <100K >100K Approve 49% 52% 50% 52% Disapprove 29 33 29 34 DK/NA 22 15 21 14 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator? (* High also 52% May 2009) APPROVE...... High Low Oct 26 Sep 28 Jul 21 May 19 Mar 24 Sep 28 Jul 07 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011* 2009 Approve 50 52 49 49 43 52 41 Disapprove 30 31 30 30 27 31 29 DK/NA 20 18 21 21 30 18 30 13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? UNION HSHLD Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 43% 10% 78% 35% 39% 46% 47% 41% Disapprove 51 89 18 55 55 47 46 53 DK/NA 6 1 4 10 5 8 7 6 AGE IN YEARS..... WhtBrnAgn White Black 18-34 35-54 55+ Evnglcl Approve 36% 80% 52% 38% 41% 26% Disapprove 57 12 40 56 54 69 DK/NA 6 7 8 6 5 5 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME No Yes <100K >100K Approve 42% 43% 44% 39% Disapprove 51 52 49 56 DK/NA 7 5 6 5 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? APPROVE....... High Low Oct 26 Sep 28 Jul 21 May 19 Mar 24 Feb 06 Sep 28 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2009 2011 Approve 43 42 46 49 47 67 42 Disapprove 51 53 50 45 48 16 53 DK/NA 6 4 4 6 5 17 4 14. Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? UNION HSHLD Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Yes/Deserves 44% 7% 83% 37% 42% 46% 51% 42% No/Does not 49 90 12 53 52 46 43 51 DK/NA 7 3 5 10 6 8 6 8 AGE IN YEARS..... WhtBrnAgn White Black 18-34 35-54 55+ Evnglcl Yes/Deserves 37% 88% 50% 42% 43% 26% No/Does not 56 2 41 52 51 67 DK/NA 7 10 9 6 7 7 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME No Yes <100K >100K Yes/Deserves 44% 44% 46% 41% No/Does not 48 49 47 54 DK/NA 8 6 7 5 TREND: Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Oct 26 Sep 28 Jul 21 May 19 Mar 24 Jan 20 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 Yes/Deserves 44 43 46 47 45 48 No/Does not 49 51 47 47 46 44 DK/NA 7 6 7 6 9 8 15. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Sherrod Brown deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? UNION HSHLD Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Yes/Deserves 48% 22% 80% 41% 47% 50% 56% 46% No/Does not 31 57 7 34 37 26 27 32 DK/NA 20 21 13 25 16 25 16 22 AGE IN YEARS..... WhtBrnAgn White Black 18-34 35-54 55+ Evnglcl Yes/Deserves 45% 73% 46% 49% 50% 36% No/Does not 35 8 28 32 32 38 DK/NA 20 19 27 19 17 25 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME No Yes <100K >100K Yes/Deserves 48% 50% 50% 49% No/Does not 29 36 30 39 DK/NA 23 14 20 12 TREND: Looking ahead to the 2012 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Sherrod Brown deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Oct 26 Sep 28 Jul 21 May 19 Mar 24 Jan 20 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 Yes/Deserves 48 50 47 49 45 45 No/Does not 31 34 33 31 30 30 DK/NA 20 16 20 20 25 25 29. As you may know, Herman Cain has never served in public office. Does the fact that Herman Cain has never served in public office make you more likely to vote for him for President, less likely to vote for him for President, or doesn't it make a difference? UNION HSHLD Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No More likely 12% 19% 3% 17% 17% 8% 14% 12% Less likely 30 23 43 24 25 34 30 30 Doesn't make a diff 55 56 50 58 55 55 54 55 DK/NA 3 2 3 2 2 3 2 3 AGE IN YEARS..... WhtBrnAgn White Black 18-34 35-54 55+ Evnglcl More likely 13% 4% 11% 15% 11% 16% Less likely 29 38 32 28 31 29 Doesn't make a diff 55 54 54 56 55 52 DK/NA 3 4 2 2 3 3 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME No Yes <100K >100K More likely 12% 13% 12% 14% Less likely 30 31 31 29 Doesn't make a diff 54 55 54 56 DK/NA 4 1 2 1 30. Herman Cain is proposing to change the current tax system. His 9-9-9 plan would eliminate all current federal taxes and replace them with a 9 percent personal income tax, a 9 percent corporate income tax and a 9 percent federal sales tax. How much have you heard or read about Cain's 9-9-9 tax plan? A lot, some, not much, or nothing at all? UNION HSHLD Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No A lot 25% 30% 24% 25% 32% 19% 28% 24% Some 34 40 28 34 35 32 34 33 Not much 20 18 22 20 19 22 20 21 Nothing at all 20 11 26 21 14 26 17 22 DK/NA - - - - - - - - AGE IN YEARS..... WhtBrnAgn White Black 18-34 35-54 55+ Evnglcl A lot 26% 18% 14% 22% 33% 26% Some 36 19 24 34 38 35 Not much 20 25 22 24 18 22 Nothing at all 18 37 40 19 11 17 DK/NA - - - - - - COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME No Yes <100K >100K A lot 22% 32% 24% 34% Some 29 44 32 46 Not much 22 17 21 15 Nothing at all 26 7 23 5 DK/NA - - - - 31. Do you think Cain's 9-9-9 plan is a good idea or a bad idea? UNION HSHLD Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Good idea 30% 51% 13% 32% 38% 23% 30% 30% Bad idea 43 22 63 41 42 44 45 43 DK/NA 27 26 23 27 20 32 25 27 AGE IN YEARS..... WhtBrnAgn White Black 18-34 35-54 55+ Evnglcl Good idea 31% 15% 29% 32% 29% 35% Bad idea 42 62 43 40 46 37 DK/NA 27 23 28 29 24 28 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME No Yes <100K >100K Good idea 28% 35% 29% 38% Bad idea 43 42 44 41 DK/NA 29 22 26 21 Demographic Summary
