February 27, 2012 - Men, Conservatives Push Santorum To 7-Pt. Ohio Lead, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; 45% Of GOP Voters Might Change Their Mind Word format With strong support from men and conservatives, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum leads the Ohio GOP presidential field with 36 percent of likely Republican primary voters, followed by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with 29 points, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. But 45 percent of voters say they might change their mind. This is unchanged from the results of a February 15 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Today's results show former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with 17 percent and Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul with 11 percent of likely Republican primary voters. Santorum tops Romney 38 - 25 percent among men, while women split 34 - 33 percent. Santorum wins 40 - 25 percent among self-identified conservatives and 49 - 19 percent among Tea Party members. Self-identified moderates back Romney 39 - 27 percent. "A week out, Sen. Rick Santorum remains seven points ahead among Ohio's likely Republican primary voters. While almost half the voters say they might change their mind, Santorum supporters seem a little surer of their vote," said Peter A. Brown assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "What happens in Michigan tomorrow night might have an impact on voters in Ohio's Republican primary." From February 23 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 847 Ohio likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Gingrich, Romney, Santorum or Paul? (Table includes leaners and early voters) LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Gingrich 17% 18% 17% 21% 10% 17% 17% 20% 16% Romney 29 25 33 25 39 29 35 19 34 Santorum 36 38 34 40 27 44 32 49 31 Paul 11 15 8 9 15 6 10 9 13 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - 1 - 1 - - DK/NA 6 5 8 5 9 5 5 4 6 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Gingrich 17% 17% 18% 15% 21% 16% 20% 17% 18% Romney 33 27 27 28 33 32 22 28 37 Santorum 32 38 31 45 29 26 41 37 37 Paul 13 11 19 7 6 14 13 15 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - 1 - - - 1 DK/NA 4 7 5 5 10 12 4 3 3 TREND: If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Gingrich, Romney, Santorum or Paul? (Table includes leaners and early voters) LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Feb 27 Feb 15 2012 2012 Gingrich 17 20 Romney 29 29 Santorum 36 36 Paul 11 9 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - DK/NA 6 6 1a. (Candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1............ CANDIDATE CHOICE........ Tot NG MR RS RP Mind made up 52% 40% 49% 57% 63% Might change 45 57 49 40 36 DK/NA 3 2 2 3 1 TREND: (Candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? CHOSE CANDIDATE Q1 Feb 27 Feb 15 2012 2012 Mind made up 52 48 Might change 45 50 DK/NA 3 3 2. Is your opinion of Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Favorable 49% 54% 44% 58% 31% 50% 51% 64% 43% Unfavorable 36 38 34 29 50 32 38 27 40 Hvn't hrd enough 12 6 18 10 17 15 8 5 14 REFUSED 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Favorable 56% 46% 48% 51% 50% 35% 52% 50% 62% Unfavorable 40 34 34 36 36 29 41 40 30 Hvn't hrd enough 3 16 17 9 10 33 5 6 6 REFUSED 1 4 2 4 4 4 2 4 3 TREND: Is your opinion of Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Feb 27 Feb 15 2012 2012 Favorable 49 49 Unfavorable 36 34 Hvn't hrd enough 12 16 REFUSED 3 2 3. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Favorable 52% 51% 52% 50% 58% 46% 59% 49% 54% Unfavorable 32 35 29 35 23 35 27 40 29 Hvn't hrd enough 13 10 16 10 16 15 10 6 15 REFUSED 4 4 3 4 2 4 4 5 3 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Favorable 60% 48% 45% 54% 56% 42% 46% 55% 61% Unfavorable 29 33 37 31 26 29 43 29 28 Hvn't hrd enough 7 16 16 11 12 27 8 12 8 REFUSED 4 3 1 4 5 2 3 4 4 TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Feb 27 Feb 15 2012 2012 Favorable 52 61 Unfavorable 32 25 Hvn't hrd enough 13 12 REFUSED 4 2 4. Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Favorable 59% 63% 54% 68% 43% 64% 57% 79% 52% Unfavorable 16 17 15 10 27 11 18 7 21 Hvn't hrd enough 24 19 30 22 29 25 23 13 26 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Favorable 63% 57% 53% 65% 60% 43% 68% 58% 67% Unfavorable 22 13 17 15 14 15 15 16 18 Hvn't hrd enough 15 29 30 20 24 41 17 25 16 REFUSED - 1 - - 2 1 1 1 - TREND: Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Feb 27 Feb 15 2012 2012 Favorable 59 62 Unfavorable 16 7 Hvn't hrd enough 24 31 REFUSED 1 - 5. Is your opinion of Ron Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Favorable 32% 37% 27% 30% 37% 25% 33% 30% 34% Unfavorable 43 46 40 49 30 44 47 54 38 Hvn't hrd enough 24 17 32 20 32 29 19 14 26 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Favorable 36% 30% 36% 29% 28% 27% 30% 40% 28% Unfavorable 46 41 34 50 46 33 48 38 52 Hvn't hrd enough 16 28 28 20 24 38 22 20 18 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 2 2 - 2 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Ron Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Feb 27 Feb 15 2012 2012 Favorable 32 36 Unfavorable 43 33 Hvn't hrd enough 24 29 REFUSED 1 3 7. Who do you think would be the strongest Republican candidate to run against President Obama in the general election: Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, or Ron Paul? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Gingrich 16% 17% 14% 19% 7% 15% 14% 20% 14% Romney 40 39 41 35 54 36 49 34 44 Santorum 25 27 23 29 16 33 21 32 23 Paul 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 4 7 DK/NA 13 11 15 11 16 12 12 10 12 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Gingrich 13% 17% 15% 15% 20% 11% 18% 17% 14% Romney 47 37 42 38 42 41 31 47 46 Santorum 24 25 25 31 18 19 34 23 27 Paul 6 6 11 4 2 9 8 6 2 DK/NA 10 15 8 12 19 19 8 7 11
