March 2, 2012 - Ohio GOP Race Going Down To The Wire, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Santorum At 35% To Romney's 31% Word format The Republican presidential face-off in Ohio is too close to call as former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum has 35 percent of likely Republican primary voters to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's 31 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to a 36 - 29 percent Santorum lead in a February 27 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll, the day before the hotly-contested Michigan primary. In today's survey, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has 17 percent, with 12 percent for Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul. Among voters who name a candidate, 34 percent say they still might change their mind by Tuesday. Santorum leads Romney 34 - 28 percent among men and 37 - 33 percent among women, 40 - 27 percent among self-described conservatives and 42 - 25 percent among Tea Party members. Romney leads Santorum 46 - 26 percent among self-described moderates. "At this point, the Buckeye State is too close to call and is clearly a two-man race between Sen. Rick Santorum and Gov. Mitt Romney," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "A third of the electorate say they still might change their mind. With five days until Super Tuesday, they certainly will be exposed to enough negative television ads to provide fodder for those who might want to switch - or switch off." From February 29 - March 1, Quinnipiac University surveyed 517 Ohio likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Gingrich, Romney, Santorum or Paul? (Table includes leaners and early voters) LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Gingrich 17% 18% 15% 18% 13% 21% 13% 22% 13% Romney 31 28 33 27 46 23 37 25 32 Santorum 35 34 37 40 26 40 35 42 35 Paul 12 14 9 10 11 9 9 8 14 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 6 5 5 5 7 6 3 6 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Gingrich 14% 18% 16% 15% 17% 15% 19% 20% 10% Romney 37 27 25 30 40 33 29 28 33 Santorum 34 36 37 40 27 32 34 36 42 Paul 11 12 18 11 5 13 11 13 10 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - 1 DK/NA 4 6 3 4 10 7 7 3 3 TREND: If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Gingrich, Romney, Santorum or Paul? (Table includes leaners and early voters) LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Mar 02 Feb 27 Feb 15 2012 2012 2012 Gingrich 17 17 20 Romney 31 29 29 Santorum 35 36 36 Paul 12 11 9 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 6 6 6 1a. (Candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.... CANDIDATE CHOICE Tot NG MR RS Mind made up 65% 50% 65% 69% Might change 34 48 34 30 DK/NA 1 1 - 1 TREND: (Candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? CHOSE CANDIDATE Q1 Mar 02 Feb 27 Feb 15 2012 2012 2012 Mind made up 65 52 48 Might change 34 45 50 DK/NA 1 3 3 2. Is your opinion of Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Favorable 48% 49% 48% 56% 34% 59% 44% 62% 42% Unfavorable 38 41 36 33 49 28 43 31 44 Hvn't hrd enough 11 9 13 9 15 10 11 5 12 REFUSED 2 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 2 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Favorable 52% 46% 45% 51% 47% 46% 50% 48% 55% Unfavorable 38 38 37 39 42 38 30 43 40 Hvn't hrd enough 9 12 17 9 6 13 17 7 6 REFUSED 1 3 1 2 6 3 3 2 - TREND: Is your opinion of Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Mar 02 Feb 27 Feb 15 2012 2012 2012 Favorable 48 49 49 Unfavorable 38 36 34 Hvn't hrd enough 11 12 16 REFUSED 2 3 2 3. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Favorable 53% 55% 50% 56% 58% 47% 61% 61% 50% Unfavorable 34 31 37 33 27 39 26 29 37 Hvn't hrd enough 11 12 11 10 14 12 11 7 12 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 3 1 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Favorable 64% 47% 53% 51% 57% 47% 50% 57% 60% Unfavorable 30 36 33 38 28 39 39 27 33 Hvn't hrd enough 6 14 13 9 11 12 10 14 5 REFUSED - 3 - 2 4 2 2 1 3 TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Mar 02 Feb 27 Feb 15 2012 2012 2012 Favorable 53 52 61 Unfavorable 34 32 25 Hvn't hrd enough 11 13 12 REFUSED 2 4 2 4. Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Favorable 57% 59% 55% 64% 43% 60% 58% 67% 54% Unfavorable 24 24 24 21 31 17 25 21 26 Hvn't hrd enough 17 14 20 14 22 20 15 10 19 REFUSED 2 2 2 1 4 3 1 2 2 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Favorable 59% 56% 59% 60% 51% 52% 53% 61% 67% Unfavorable 24 24 19 25 28 28 21 20 23 Hvn't hrd enough 16 17 22 14 16 17 25 16 10 REFUSED 1 3 - 2 5 3 - 3 - TREND: Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Mar 02 Feb 27 Feb 15 2012 2012 2012 Favorable 57 59 62 Unfavorable 24 16 7 Hvn't hrd enough 17 24 31 REFUSED 2 1 - 5. Is your opinion of Ron Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Favorable 32% 33% 30% 31% 30% 25% 33% 28% 34% Unfavorable 42 46 38 46 35 44 44 48 42 Hvn't hrd enough 24 19 29 20 32 29 21 19 23 REFUSED 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 5 2 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Favorable 32% 32% 31% 35% 28% 32% 31% 35% 28% Unfavorable 50 38 40 42 44 34 41 43 55 Hvn't hrd enough 17 27 29 19 23 33 28 19 15 REFUSED 2 3 1 4 5 1 1 4 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Ron Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Mar 02 Feb 27 Feb 15 2012 2012 2012 Favorable 32 32 36 Unfavorable 42 43 33 Hvn't hrd enough 24 24 29 REFUSED 3 1 3
